If you play in a dynasty league, you are probably already starting to prepare for you upcoming 2013 Fantasy Football Rookie-Only draft.
If your league mirrors most dynasty leagues, your rookie-only draft likely takes place after the actual 2013 NFL Draft, which gives you time to react and reorganize after all of the rookies find their NFL landing spots. If your league drafts before April’s NFL Draft, well, hopefully the mock draft below, and the analysis below that, can help you navigate through each player’s potential and upside. Just know that things will change quite a bit once these rookies have homes; landing spots are sometimes half the battle when it comes to fantasy value, and any one of the names listed below, or even not mentioned below, could jump straight to the top, that’s how important situation is when it comes to fantasy production.
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Rookie-Only Mock Draft – 2013
Round One
1.01 – Montee Ball (Smitty)
1.02 – Marcus Lattimore (greatprodigy)
1.03 – Giovanni Bernard (WTCM)
1.04 – Keenan Allen (bdd)
1.05 – Le’Veon Bell (greatprodigy)
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Thanks for the write up Smitty, it will indeed help many. Great job!
Thanks. It will be interesting to see how different it looks come March 1. But, you can bet I’ll have updates before then, and definitely then.
FANTASTIC ANALYSIS!
Thanks, Junkie.
Lattimore is a talent for sure, but I don’t think anyone would take him as the 2nd overall. If that’s the case might as well draft TJ Yeldon and have him sit on your team and he’s just as likely to be as productive when he gets around to playing. Lattimore shoulda be drafted any higher than the 2nd round. I know in my league anyone not drafted in rookie draft is eligible to be taken in the normal auction draft so if lattimore goes undrafted in my league I could probably pick him up in a later portion in the draft. Last year mikel leshoure went undrafted as did Ryan Williams of AZ since they were both out for the yr at the time of our draft.
Well, if this wasn’t a mock, he would have went at No. 2., so you can’t say no one would. GreatProd likes him there. I hear what you’re saying, and I think you are wise to use ADPs to your advantage. Even though I think 1.02 is a reach, I do, I wouldn’t fault anyone for grabbing the kid that high. Much depends on your league, your depth, if you can wait on him… granted, I’d trade down a bit if he was my target, but some leagues don’t have as active of owners, there are lots of things to consider and reasons why he could go at 1.02 and it not be all that crazy. I think he falls to at least 1.06-1.07, and further in a lot of leagues.
Well done guys and very helpful for those looking at a jump-start on analysis for their rookie drafts.
Thx, buddy.
Ball number 1 and lattimore number 2 are terrible picks. You guys need to go back to the drawing board. Even if you like those guys you shouldn’t pick them there. Trade down and get an extra pick out of it at least.
Knile Davis 7? Did you guys watch any college ball or just the combine?
Ctrlaltdft: Thanks for the comment. It’s all guess work until we have landing spots, and if Ball gets drafted into the best situation, of course he can be the No. 1. Landing spots can make any of these guys no. 1 or No. 6 RBs.
Landing spots have much less to do with who succeeds and who doesn’t in the nfl. Draft the more talented players if you want to succeed. Dont draft based on need.
I agree that too much emphasis is put on situation.
In a redraft, situation ALL DAY, but this is a rookie draft, this is a DYNASTY concept, and in Dynasty it’s talent over opportunity (or both when possible of course) 10/10, all day, everyday.
All that said, I love the fresh take, I try to never bash anyone’s opinion. As you stated, Foster went undrafted, so you never know….but if you watched him play you knew that his draft status had more to do with his personality and sabotage by UT coaches, talent was there.
Priest Holmes…I don’t really understand him for the comparison as he was a Doak Walker award winner at a top program that’s had good success at putting RBs into the league, and then he excelled in Baltimore before blowing up in KC (I predicted the blowup playing under Vermeil as his new Faulk: COUNT IT!).
I DO however understand what you mean by what you say, I also agree with ctrlaltdft that if your favorite guy is generally mocked picks 20-25 then there is no reason to take him at 10…trade 10 and get pick 17,18, or 19 and another couple picks.
I caution readers to take these lists as what they are: FUN!!
These are some guys that are just like you having fun throwing some opinions out there. The biggest fun of the draft is hitting home runs. Just enjoy these guys getting together making a list, just like any other group getting together to do a mock.
I trust my own eyes and will take my opinion over ANYONE’S when it comes to fantasy, and am almost always right, but it’s crucial, nay, imperative to get a feel for where some people may be tempted to take my guys, so that I don’t miss out the guy I REALLY want, just because I think I can wait.
Well done gentlemen, this was one of the more enjoyable mocks I’ve seen!!
Thanks for the comments. As for my Priest Holmes comments, again, I was not saying he wasn’t worthy or good enough to blow up in KC, but that situation was halfway why, that was my point. Under the coaching, in that scheme, an attack built around the runner punching it in 2 times a game. That was exactly my point, so I’m saying situation rules. And, you won’t find a bigger believer in Holmes that year he broke out than me… So, it wasn’t to say he wasn’t one of the best players ever in the history of fantasy football, he was… situation is tied to that, you can’t separate the two. If Ball goes to the right place, elite he will be if you ask me.
And you are right, everyone must read mocks with caution, but remember, this isn’t “DraftCalc’s” mock, it’s a user/contributor/staff mock, so we couldn’t control where some of the players went. So, in a sense, this isn’t something to warn anyone about, it was a real experience, one you’d want to, if you could, mix into the rookie ADP data, because it was real people taking the players they truly intend to take (and where they did) in their upcoming mocks. That’s the thing about mock drafting prior to landing spots. If Bell or Davis land in GB to start, will they no longer be players you’d want to wait for, or would they instantly jump to the 1.01 or 1.02 of any draft. Of course they would leap to the very top.
We all were, and are, making assumptions with our picks, that Davis is drafted to start, or that Ball is, etc. Very few real rookie drafts take place prior to the actual landing spots being handed out (the real NFL Draft), at least they shouldn’t be taking place, therefore, you can’t really caution anyone into any line of thinking, because Ball could be the 2.02 after landing spots are known, or the 1.01. Knile Davis could be the 1.01, or the 3.01. To say anyone of the above selections was too early, ahead of where one should draft them, etc, I think that’s not quite the right approach – yet. After landing spots, when the rookie ADP data means something, sure, you are 100% correct! 100! But now, you will get these mocks like you see above, and believe me, we mock a lot here… that’s the look we get half the time we do them, so it’s real ranking/predicting, that’s the ADP when you draft with DC users… nothing to caution about – yet. But soon, yep, you will see ADPs settle and mean something, then you shouldn’t reach past the ADPs much, although rookie drafts are harder to count on when it comes to ADPs, etc.
Good convo!