On The Rise
Hakeem Nicks is on the rise, no question, but is he rising too high and too fast? His current ADP, according to our compiled Average Draft Position Data, has him pegged around 2.10-3.01… I actually think that’s about right, as it has him getting slotted around the Wes Welker, Roddy White and Matthew Stafford types… that’s solid, because Nicks has the ability to produce top 5WR numbers even if he does in fact miss a couple outings in 2012… and if he doesn’t miss time, then you have a player that extremely outperforms his draft slot. All that said, my gut feeling is that Nicks will climb ADP lists even more in the coming months, and that’s when I will start cautioning against investing in the receiver heading into 2012 fantasy football drafts (at least at that cost). If Nicks starts going in the Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson range, and we’re talking redraft leagues, I say take a pass. Again, I think per start you’re going to get top 1-5 fantasy wide receiver numbers out of Nicks in 2012, but it all comes down to his inability to say on the field. Even when he is on the field, he is banged up and hampered.
So, in a nutshell, I love Nicks at the 2.10-3.01 range heading into August, and that’s where his ADP currently sits; however, at the cost of a high second-round pick, I’d rather go with an Andre Johnson or a top passer, then grab a monster breakout candidate like A.J. Green in the third-round. Actually, grab Green in the third-round regardless.