Week 1 Start Bench Advice: 2013

Below you will find Week 1 Start Bench Advice for the 2013 fantasy football season. Have a start ‘em and sit ‘em dilemma heading into Week 1? Post a comment below and I, or one of our awesome DraftCalc moderators, will try and hit you back with an answer!

Also, don’t forget to check out our Week 1 Projections.

Let’s get to it!

Shane Vereen at BUF

Shane Vereen @BUF

Shane Vereen is a PPR beast-in-the-making. He is, already, one of the best receiving backs in the league, and I feel confident saying that even with such a short resume. Stevan Ridley might be a strong rusher, but he pulled in just six passes last year; Vereen is the receiving back in New England, and he could pull in well over 500-600 receiving yards in 2013. In fact, he could pull in way more than that. He is kind of a secret weapon in non-PPR formats, as he needs an injury to really dominate in the rushing game, but I’m going to go on record and say this now… if Vereen is in fact forced into that New England starting rusher role in 2013, let’s say Ridley gets hurt, well, get ready top 8-12 fantasy football running back stats (per start) in both non-PPR and PPR formats. Vereen is that good. As for Week 1, he is a sneaky fantasy RB3/flex start against that Bills’ rushing defense, which ranked second-to-last against the run in 2012. Outside of DraftCalc.com, Vereen is very underrated heading into Week 1, so buying low is advised if you can get him on the cheap (before kickoff).

TY Hilton vs OAK

TY Hilton vs. OAK

Like with Shane Vereen above, those that live outside of DraftCalc (especially those that aren’t on our fantasy football forums) aren’t (yet) super-high on Hilton heading into 2013. I keep hearing “DraftCalc outsiders” ask questions like, “Do you think Heyward-Bey will hurt Hilton this year?” My response is usually, “Do you think that the bad guy is going to hurt Jack Bauer when the show “Twenty-Four” returns to TV in 2014?” For all you “Twenty-Four” fans out there, yes, the show is coming back! I’m pumped as well… almost as pumped as I am about Hilton’s probable breakout season in 2013! Andrew Luck loves Hilton and the two have an unbelievable rapport, one that was proved this preseason as Hilton grabbed multiple touchdown passes. In this upcoming Week 1 contest, against a mediocre (at best) Oakland passing defense, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hilton pull in 4-5 passes for 90 or so yards and a score. Andrew Luck could be good for 300+ passing and 2-3 scores. Reggie Wayne and Hilton could have very similar numbers in this one.

Alshon Jeffery vs. CIN

Alshon Jeffery vs. CIN

In need of a deep sleeper start at your fantasy WR3 slot this week? Roll with Alshon Jeffery. While I think Brandon Marshall (hip) will eventually get healthy (although, who knows if he will stay healthy all season long!), Marshall concerns me a bit entering Week 1. He has complained about his hip, and the news has gone back and forth on him being near 100 percent entering this upcoming Week 1 contest… my guess is that Cincy, the 7th-ranked passing defense from last season, will do their very best to contain the still-healing receiver, and this could open the door widely for Jeffery. I’m not suggesting that Marshall can’t in the end have a big game, and I’m certainly not calling him a ‘bench’ play this week (you can’t bench Marshall, you just can’t); although, what I am saying is that Jeffery will be setup nicely for a big day. How big? How about 5-6 receptions for 100 yards and a score?

Lamar Miller at CLE or Chris Johnson at PIT

Lamar Miller @CLE or Chris Johnson @PIT

Believe it or not, if you live outside of DraftCalc.com — I know you’ve heard this twice already — there are grips of people out there that are just “hopeful” about Lamar Miller as their potential flex option this year. I’ve read in a bunch of other places, not on our DraftCalc forums of course, where Miller owners feel he is all of the sudden flex-worthy material now that Miami has officially listed him as their No. 1 runner heading into Week 1. Well, if you own Miller, and you’re not a DraftCalc regular, I have news for ya… Miller is more than capable of being a fantasy RB1 this year. Yep, you heard me, and it will all start against Cleveland in Week 1. The Browns were 14th against the run last year, and even with some off-season changes, I think Miller is more than capable of hitting that 100-yard mark on the ground, and he has an excellent shot at a rushing touchdown. Mix in 3-4 receptions, for 30 or so yards, and you have yourself “The Lamar Miller Breakout Party”. Miller, like David Wilson, has been on our Upside Board all off-season, and congrats to those who acquired/drafted Wilson at bargain value! While buying Wilson at bargain value is over, it’s not too late to pull off a last-minute trade for Miller, but be certain to snag him at 3rd- to 4th-round value (no higher!), as that’s where his value currently sits, and that’s what makes him such a potential home run this year!

Darren McFadden at IND or Eddie Lacy at SF

Darren McFadden @IND or Eddie Lacy @SF

This one is easy on paper, as Darren McFadden faces a Colts rushing defense that ranked 4th-to-last against the run in 2012; Indy surrendered over 136 rushing yards per game on the ground! I know many have doubts about McFadden staying healthy in 2013, but the runner is in a contract year, so he is playing for big money. Expect him to stay on the field as much as possible this upcoming season, and get ready for a monster Week 1 showing. It wouldn’t shock me to see McFadden total 120 yards and a score, with 3-4 receptions. Eddie Lacy, a player I worry about playing a lot of seasons in this league, is actually a player I’m starting to like more and more when talking about just 2013. That said, I don’t like him in this match-up. This will not only be his first NFL start, he will be facing a brutal 49ers rushing defense, a unit that ranked 4th-best against the run last year and surrendered just 7 rushing touchdowns. Talk about a rough debut!

Chris Givens vs. AZ or James Jones at SF

Chris Givens vs. AZ or James Jones @SF

This is a close one, and both receivers have tough match-ups. Chris Givens faces a tough Cardinals passing defense, one that might be better than last year’s stats even suggest (5th against the pass). The Cardinals’ defense was constantly on the field last year, so isn’t crazy to think that they could be even better than that No. 5 spot. Still, I love Givens this year, and because James Jones faces last year’s fourth-ranked 49ers’ passing defense, I’m going to call the match-ups a wash with these two, and I will roll with my 2013 big-time breakout candidate in Chris Givens. I see Givens pulling in 4-5 passes for 70-80 yards and 1TD. Sam Bradford loves Givens, and I think this Rams passing attack has too many weapons for AZ to focus solely on stopping Givens as he stretches the field.

Buy-Low Players Before Kickoff

Arian Foster

You might have doubts about Arian Foster right now, and that’s par for the course when a player sits out an entire off-season, has been overworked for three-straight years, and is heading into Week 1 with carry limitations. In fact, he was one of my “sell-high” recommendations months ago, and I followed my own advice and sold him off! Guess what, though? No matter how much a player’s value changes, up or down, a player can go from “bust” to “buy-low” candidate (or “buy-low” to “bust” candidate) in a snap! That doesn’t mean initial valuations were wrong, it just means that value has changed in such extreme fashion, opportunity returns. This is exactly the case with Arian Foster. Think of it like a housing market. Sell-high when the time is right, and maybe even consider coming back to buy-low when values cool, or when opportunity presents itself. I actually sold Foster in one of my dynasty leagues, then that owner traded him to someone else…. then, just as news broke (a couple weeks ago) suggesting that Foster was having pains shooting down his back to his legs, I sent out the offers! In that same league (where I sold him months prior), I repurchased Foster for LeVeon Bell (a day before his injury) and my back-up QB…that’s what you call working both sides of the player’s value! Why do I believe in Foster all of the sudden? Well, while he has been overworked for three-straight NFL seasons, he only has three full seasons as a starter under his belt… Overworked? Yes. Huge career (NFL) workload overall? Not so much! Again, it has everything to do with risk vs. reward, and at his current value, which is outside the top 12-14 overall, the risk has been tremendously minimized. Risks for missed time, and slow starting, which was not previously factored into his old value (months ago), well, all that risk is now (today) built into the fantasy value he currently holds/did hold when I repurchased him. Recent news just broke today suggesting that Foster’s Week 1 touches will be limited; use this info to your advantage and send out the offers! If you can land Foster using a high-end fantasy WR2, or a player that equates to a player you’d draft in the late second-round, attack! Maybe don’t go get him in every league, as there is some risk, but again, it’s worth it, at least in a few leagues, given the upside (which is top 5RB upside).

Our Week 1 Player Projections are sortable, so that you can list only running backs, quarterbacks, wide receivers or tight ends individually. Or, you can list all positions at once. We also have a PPR and non-PPR sorting option. Your line-up decisions just got a whole lot easier!

View Week 1 Projections



Comments

  1. Hi Smitty,

    I am in standard redraft league and have to decide who to start at flex and two WRs

    AJ Green vs CHICAGO
    Brandon Marshall vs CIN
    Victor Cruz vs DAL
    David Wison vs DAL

    I feel like Green and Marshall are no brainers at WRs. I can’t decide flex. Any suggestions?

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  2. @msamarch1980 I like Green, Marshall & Wilson as well…

    I need 1 RBs & a Flex out of:

    Shane Vereen @ BUF
    Eddie Lacy @ SF
    Montee Ball vs BAL
    Kenbrell Thompkins @ BUF
    Deandre Hopkins @ SD

    Thx

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    • I’d probably go with the 2 Patriots here but I am admittedly not a fan of Monte Ball this year…at least not this early. I do like Lacy this year but SF is a tough match up for the rookie week 1. GL MCM.

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  3. PPR league – Should I start for my WR4(flex)

    Kenbrell Thompkins vs. Buf
    Antonio Brown vs. Ten

    Thanks for your help.

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  4. Hey Smitty, I have the same sit/start dilemma in two of my leagues (non-PPR):

    Bernard Pierce vs. Chris Givens at FLEX

    I’m leaning Pierce right now but I think it’s almost even. Givens is going against a tough pass defense but we all know how he can catch a 50 yard bomb at any moment. If Pierce gets 12-15 touches in this one then he’s the choice, just not sure how the backfield work will be split up.

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    • i recommend on going with the full time starter in Givens even against a tough Def ..never know how much pierce will be used.

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    • I agree, start Givens, but don’t be shocked if Pierce, in time, if not right away, makes this decision harder each week. With Week 1, it is hard not to go with the guy getting starter work, like BDD said.

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  5. Smitty, I have a good dilemma. Landed Vereen and C Givens on my squad. PPR league. You love them both, but who is the better flex this week, in your opinion?

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    • I’d go with Vereen in a PPR league. He should be heavily used in the passing game. GL.

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  6. Wow, I came in here expecting to focus on W1 football, but all I can think about now is 24. YES.

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  7. Thoughts for PPR league

    David Wilson@DAL or Lamar Miller@CLE?
    Chris givens@ARI or Kenny Britt@PITT?

    Thank you.

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    • Now, why on earth did you roster both of these guys so that you can only start one? :)

      I’m gonna say both. Both of these guys are set to breakout in 2013, and both are must-starts and must-owns. Top 5-10RB seasons are on the way. Who is your RB1 and you can only start 2? What are your WRs? Is there room to upgrade. I know we only have a little bit of time left before kickoff, but you’re going to get burned all year long watching one of these guys tear it up on your bench each week.

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      • If you have to choose one though Smitty which one would it be? I was going Miller until Brown broke his leg. Im going Wilson now.

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      • Hi Smitty,
        I can only start 2 RBs and 2 WRs, no flex. 14 team ppr and I had the 12th pick. Calvin and AJ Green were gone so I took TRich.
        QB Romo
        TE Julius Thomas
        RB1 Trent Richardson
        RB2 ???
        WR1 Julio Jones
        WR2???
        Bench: Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Montee Ball, Shane Verreen, Bernard pierce, Chris Givens, Kenny Britt, Josh Gordon, Sam Bradford.

        Missed TY Hilton by one pick. Receivers were gone fast for some reason, so I was stuck drafting RBs as BPA. Will try to upgrade other positions with RBs.

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  8. Wilson and Givens. I like Britt more but I need to see how healthy he is beofre I start him. GL.

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    • Hi JRMRRT,

      Thank you for your input. I like your thinking on seeing Britt perform first, makes sense.

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  9. Gio or Lacy week 1? It’s 49ers D & Bears D, so unfortunately both are very tough, & I have to start one of them as my RB2…what are your thoughts? Still not sure if Gio will be the starter or not week 1

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    • Lacy. Gio might make this a difficult call sometime soon, let’s hope, but Lacy is probably the right call until Gio gets locked into a for sure workload. If news breaks suggesting Gio will get a grip of touches, switch ‘em, but for now, Lacy!

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  10. Awesome stuff and is much appreciated!!
    Non-ppr standard scoring ?
    Start 2 RBs Spiller, Rice, Foster…I have Spiller and Rice in my line up currently…hard to think about sitting Foster.
    I have Cam or RGIII to chose from this week and I was pretty set on rolling with RGIII but it appears your projections this week disagree…do you really think playing Cam vs SEA is a better play?
    Thanks

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  11. Tough spot. Id go with Spiller and Rice. The Texans have said they are going to scale Foster’s load back week 1. If RGIII is 100% Id go with him. I don’t like Cam’s match-up at all. I’m starting R Wilson over him. GL. m

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  12. Hey smitty I’m in a current dilemma. I’m currently deciding who to start at my flex position for my ppr league. Either T.Y. Hilton @OAK or Lamar Miller @CLE. They are definitely not both going to start because I have AP and Trent ahead of Miller and Bowe and Antonio Brown ahead of Hilton. Like you, I’m very high on both hilton and miller. I would feel safer starting miller ahead of hilton, but my league is ppr so it adds the factor of receptions which could possibly make hilton a better choice than miller. What do you think?

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    • a nice problem to have there visterbui! i start Miller over TY rbs get more touches and he will be involved in the passing games as well..GL

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  13. smitty im in the same boat as above…in a non ppr 3wr 2rb i got tpain, d wils, gio, and miller also…do i flip one and upgrade at reciever? my wr are dez, fitz, hopkins, britt

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    • is this redraft or dynasty? if redraft and depending on other starters i might look to upgrade a britt to a ajg/calvin with miller or wilson. all depends on roster.

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  14. Non-PPR league, choose two WRs from:

    TY Hilton vs. OAK (duh)
    Jordy Nelson @ SF
    DeSean Jackson @ WAS
    Chris Givens vs. ARI
    Kenny Britt @ PIT
    Kenbrell Thompkins @ BUF
    Alshon Jeffery vs. CIN

    Sorry for so many options… My initial impression is Hilton and Nelson (since I have Rodgers as my QB) but what do you think?

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  15. Smitty (and others) need some help. Love my team but need help with my week 1 Flex:

    Would you go Nelson, Lacy or Givens Flex

    PPR:

    WR- AJ Green
    WR- TY Hilton
    RB- M Forte
    RB- L. Miller
    TE- G Olson
    WR/RB Flex:

    Flex Options:
    Jordy Nelson
    Lacy
    Givens

    Thanks for your help! Love my draft. Only downside was Eli and Flacco as 2 QB’s

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  16. Ok guys what do you think for my flex week 1?
    T.Y Hilton
    Shane Vereen
    Kenbrall Thompkins
    I’m sketchy about Mike Wallace but we will throw him in there.

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  17. Terell Prior listed as #6 QB this week? What do you see having him rated that high? Is he worth a ww pick-up as back-up in 2qb league?

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    • Well, if you look at his numbers, it’s the rushing that puts him over the top. Those passing stats are decent, not amazing, and the rushing vaults him up there.

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  18. Smitty,
    This is my team what do you think?
    QB Griffin
    RB Miller
    RB Murray
    WR Dez
    WR Julio Jones
    WR Hilton
    TE Cook
    DST Car
    K Hauschka
    Bench: Manuel, Barner,Pierce,Givens,Dunbar,Stills,Andre Brown,DST ARI

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    • very studly team nice work is this redraft or dynasty..i like it both ways but dynasty you are built for years..

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  19. Hey guys I got a bench problem. I have foster, Ridley, vereen, and mjd. Ppr, only have three slots. Who do you play? Thanks!

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  20. Hey Guys,
    In a PPR league,

    I have:
    rb rice (ravens)
    rb bush
    wr amendosa
    wr Thompson (broncos)
    flex options: vereen
    thompkins (patriots)
    boldin (SF)
    Hopkins (TX)
    should I bench bush for vereen?
    should I use vereen or thompkins as the flex?
    don’t think I should use Hopkins or boldin this week.
    What do u think? I am really stuck on bush vs vereen vs Thompkins (with Gronk out)
    Alex

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  21. Hi Smitty,

    Between Amendola, Colston and Antonio Brown, which 2 do you think I should start? PPR

    thanks..

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    • Brown for sure, Colston is battling knee problems the last I heard and now Amendola is nursing a groin injury. I would start the healthiest of those two keep an eye on the injury updates throughout the week..

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  22. hello all,
    i’m in a standard scoring 12 team league.

    my team =
    qb – r. wilson
    rb – m. ball, l. miller, s. vereen
    wr – ajg, julio jones, v. cruz, ty hilton
    te – k. rudolph, j. thomas

    i need to start 2 rb’s, 3 wr’s and 1 te. i know smitty loves miller and ty, but i’m torn.

    and if i could ask another quick one? same scoring as above.
    rb’s – l. miller, a. foster, b. tate
    which 2 do i start?

    any advice is appreciated.
    thanks

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  23. Smitty,

    Awesome stuff again and thank you in advance.
    12 team, .5 PPR league.
    QB, 2RB, 2WR, FLEX (RB,WR,TE), TE

    My Roster:
    QB: Romo, Big Ben
    RB: Rice, MJD, D.Murray, R.Mathews
    WR: Marshall, TY, Mike Williams, L.Moore, K.Thompkins, A.Dobson
    TE: F.Davis

    Who to start in week1?

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  24. I was wondering who should I start at qb rg3 or Sam Bradford. At RB who should I start Lamar miller or cj spiller? And for wr mike Wallace or kenbrel thompkins? thanks.

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    • Thanks, slimms! Much appreciated. We are outside of the box, ahead of the curve. We won’t land every prediction, but you will find we are bold, yet calculated. Glad to have ya!

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  25. Okay here’s my question ,need to pick for my flex between Chris Given and Shane vereen ?

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    • I think I go Givens, but honestly, I’d be lying if I said I was anymore than 55/45. You could get this wrong every other week. Great problem to have, and hopefully within a week or two this will sort itself out for the most part. I only say Givens because he is the No. 1 option in STL if you ask me. Vereen could EXPLODE, and keep in mind both are Top 10 Bold Predictions this year (so you won’t have us shocked if either goes crazy this week/year. Week 1, sometimes it’s safe to roll with the guaranteed touches/targets?

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  26. Opening fake football weekend, woo hoo!!!!

    Have RG3 in but wondering if I should wait a week to see how he/his knee looks. Stafford should be good for 3tds with everyone healthy

    Stafford vs min or RG3 vs Philly?

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  27. With Gilmore & Byrd out, I’m really tempted to start Thompkins over his cousin Antonio Brown. I know Brown is the safe play, but this is the kind of perfect storm that doesn’t happen that often. Already going Vereen though… What say you DC Nation?

    Romo
    Miller, Vereen
    AJG, Julio, (Ant.Brown/Thompkins)
    Cook
    Bullock
    Steelers

    Thanks

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