Below is our Week 10 Start & Bench Advice for the 2012 fantasy football season.
This week, we have JRMRRT cranking out the Weekly Projections, I (Smitty) am in the middle of mocking-up our first 2013 Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft (which I provide a taste of in this article), Mile_High_Man has his usual Weekly Line-Up Rankings, and X has you covered with some awesome Week 10 topics and player evaluations.
Let’s get to it!
Week 10 Fantasy Football Weekly Projections
* Based on a standard PPR scoring format
1. Tom Brady (vs. Bills): 380/4 TDs
2. Matt Ryan (@ Saints): 335/4 TDs 20 rush yards
3. Peyton Manning (@ Panthers): 340/3 TDs 1 INT
4. Drew Brees (vs. Falcons): 330/3 TDs 1 INT
5. Matt Stafford (@ Vikings): 325/3 TDs 10 rush yards 2 INTs
6. Ben Roetlisberger (vs. Chiefs): 315/3 TDs 1 INT
7. Cam Newton (vs. Broncos): 310/2 TDs 65 rush yards 2 INTs
8. Eli Manning (@ Bengals): 325/2 TDs 10 rush yards 1 INT
9. Mike Vick (vs. Cowboys): 265/2 TDs 45 rush yards 1 TD 2 INTs fumble loss
10. Josh Freeman (vs. Chargers): 280/2 TDs 20 rush yards 1 INT
11. Andrew Luck (@ Jaguars): 290/1 TD 25 rush yards 1 TD 2 INTs
12. Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ Patriots): 325/2 TDs 15 rush yards 3 INTs
13. Phillip Rivers (@ Bucs): 280/2 TDs 1 INT
14. Tony Romo (@ Eagles): 290/2 TDs 10 rush yards 3 INTs
15. Alex Smith (vs. Rams): 220/2 TDs 20 rush yards
1. Ray Rice (vs. Raiders): 110/1 rush 4/40/1 rec
2. Adrian Peterson (vs. Lions): 125/2 rush 2/25/0 rec
3. Stevan Ridley (vs. Bills): 120/2 rush 1/10/0 rec
4. Lesean McCoy (vs. Cowboys): 75/1 rush 5/45/1 rec
5. Arian Foster (@ Bears): 100/1 rush 5/45/0 rec
6. Doug Martin (vs. Chargers): 110/1 rush 3/30/0 rec
7. CJ Spiller (@ Patriots): 70/0 rush 6/65/1 rec
8. Frank Gore (vs. Rams): 80/1 rush 4/40/0 rec
9. Marshawn Lynch (vs. Jets): 110/1 rush 1/10/0 rec
10. Willis McGahee (@ Panthers): 100/1 rush 2/10/0 rec
11. Isaac Redmond (vs. Chiefs): 110/1 rush
12. Matt Forte (vs. Texans): 65/1 rush 4/30/0 rec
13. Jamaal Charles (@ Steelers): 65/0 rush 3/30/1 rec
14. Reggie Bush (vs. Titans): 60/0 rush 3/20/1 rec
15. Mikel Leshoure (@ Vikings) 70/1 rush 2/15/0 rec
16. Chris Johnson (@ Dolphins): 70/0 rush 4/40/0 rec
17. Michael Turner (@ Saints) 100/0 rush
18. Ahmad Bradshaw (@ Bengals): 70/rush 2/10/0 rec
19. Ryan Mathews (vs. Bucs): 65/0 rush 4/25/0 rec
20. DeMarco Murray (@ Eagles): 55/0 rush 3/15/0 rec
1. Calvin Johnson (@ Vikings): 10/120/2
2. AJ Green (vs. Giants): 8/110/1
3. Wes Welker (vs. Bills): 11/100/1
4. Julio Jones (@ Saints): 8/120/1
5. Rob Gronkowski (vs. Bills): 9/110/1
6. Brandon Marshall (vs. Texans): 7/110/1
7. Demaryius Thomas (@ Panthers): 5/100/1
8. Victor Cruz (@ Bengals): 6/100/1
9. Reggie Wayne (@ Jaguars): 8/90/1
10. Roddy White (@ Saints): 8/90/1
11. Vincent Jackson (vs. Chargers): 7/90/1
12. Jimmy Graham (vs. Falcons): 7/80/1
13. Mike Wallace (vs. Chiefs): 4/100/1
14. Eric Decker (@ Panthers): 7/80/1
15. Marquise Colston (vs. Falcons): 7/75/1
16. Andre Johnson (@ Bears): 7/75/1
17. Hakeem Nicks (@ Bengals): 6/65/1
18. Miles Austin (@ Eagles): 5/70/1
19. Dez Bryant (@ Eagles): 5/70/1
20. Brandon Lloyd (vs. Bills): 4/80/1
21. Steve Johnson (@ Patriots): 6/65/1
22. Steve Smith (vs. Broncos): 5/65/1
23. Torrey Smith (vs. Raiders): 5/65/1
24. Denarious Moore (@ Ravens): 5/60/1
25. Mike Williams (vs. Chargers): 5/60/1
26. Dwayne Bowe (@ Steelers): 7/90/0
27. Lance Moore (vs. Falcons): 8/80/0
28. Desean Jackson (vs. Cowboys): 5/90/0
29. Titus Young (@ Vikings): 5/85/0
30. Kenny Britt (@ Dolphins): 6/65/0
X’s Week 10 Start/Bench Thoughts
The Bucs made Carson Palmer look like Joe Montana in week 9, so it is only natural I give Philip Rivers the nod at my QB spot this week. Rivers has only gone north of 300 yards passing once this season, against the Saints, and it just so happens the Bucs are ranked behind them in pass defense… by quite a bit. Look for another 300-yard game from Rivers this weekend and I’ll go bold and pencil him in for four scores. For those missing Aaron Rodgers this week, grab either Carson Palmer, who faces a mediocre Ravens pass defense, or Josh Freeman, who has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last four games.
Hard to believe only 10 months ago Adrian Peterson suffered a horrible knee injury that tore both his ACL and MCL, an injury that many players may never have recovered completely from. We know that AP is not most players and here he sits as one of the leagues hottest runners with 458 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last three games. This week he draws Detriot, a team who has held him under 100 yards twice in three tries over the last two seasons. That doesn’t worry me much as AP is playing about as well as he ever has, and I’m expecting a 150 total yard performance with a pair of scores. Some of that has to do with the fact Percy Harvin will likely miss week 10 with an ankle injury, so they’ll lean on their workhorse even more. If you are looking for a player on the wire, Taiwan Jones looks likely to get the majority of work in the Raiders backfield with both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson nursing injuries. I don’t expect Jones to get a ton of carries, but he does have the speed to bust off a long run even in a limited role.
Reggie Wayne will turn 34 in a few weeks, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the numbers he is putting up. He currently sits as the most targeted wideout in the league (101), and has turned that into 61 receptions, 835 yards and 3 scores at the halfway point of the season. Do the math… if he keeps up this pace he’ll have his best season ever, and that is nuts for a guy as accomplished as Wayne. In week 10 he draws a bottom-third Jaguars pass defense and will turn those 12 targets into an 8/125 day with a score. Teammate T.Y. Hilton is a nice add to your squad this week if you are looking for help on the wire; he’s had 11 catches over the last two games and went over 100 yards receiving with a score in week 9.
Rob Gronkowski owners are likely chomping at the bit to get the stud back in their lineups, and this week is as good as it gets versus the Bills. Going back to last season, Gronk has posted 20 catches, 321 yards and 5 scores in his last three games against Buffalo, so he is a lock for a big day. Look for an 8-for-120 day with a pair of scores. If you need a bye-week option, the Raiders’ Brandon Myers is coming off a two TD performance against the Bucs and has 18 catches in his last three games. It looks like Carson Palmer and the Raiders will need to keep slinging it with Darren McFadden iffy for week 10.
Trade target of the week
Over the summer, it was a little surprising to see how high Cam Newton was being ranked… top 3 for most, a few giving him the nod even higher. That translated to Newton being a first round pick in most leagues, second round at worst, and now here we sit at week 8 with Newton ranked outside the top 15 at the position. He is unquestionably one of the biggest disappointments of the 2012 season, and many of his owners are likely ready to sell low; which makes it a perfect opportunity to add Newton if the price is right and you don’t already own a stud QB. A good place to start is a second-tier QB like Josh Freeman or Carson Palmer, plus a solid WR3/RB3 type player. It really all depends on the other owner’s situation and if you have the depth to go after Newton in a trade. My point here is that this game is all about landing the right player at the right time. Newton has proven he can put up monster numbers on par with the best fantasy players in the game, so if he can recapture that magic again, he’ll carry your fantasy team deep into the playoffs… mabye even a title. You just have to figure out a way to get him on the cheap.
Week 10 Byes
Byes: Cardinals, Browns, Packers, Redskins
Crazy-Early 2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Preview
It’s never too early to start preparing for the 2013 fantasy football season, and I have an early 2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft in the works. Below is a taste, and you can expect the rest of this mock, all six rounds with commentary, to post at some point this week.
1.01 - Arian Foster – One could argue a couple names here, but Foster is 20TD capable each season.
1.02 - Ray Rice – I like AP and Rodgers here as well, but Rice is league-leading rushing material each year.
1.03 - Adrian Peterson – I doubted, I got burned. Don’t doubt AP ever again. Ever.
1.04 - Aaron Rodgers – He can carry your team weekly, whether you like the ‘QB in the first round’ strategy or not.
1.05 - LeSean McCoy – It’s easy to knock McCoy down a couple spots, especially below Green, Martin and Charles, but I can’t – yet.
1.06 - A.J. Green – I’m proud to say that my #1-ranked receiver last off-season is playing the part. Get ready for a decade of this stuff!
1.07 - Jamaal Charles – Wow, two ACL-healing studs return to form right out of the gate. They have rewritten the ACL research.
1.08 - Dough Martin – Welcome the new golden boy of fantasy football. Nope, people are not overreacting, he is this good!
1.09 - Robert Griffin III – He will only get better. He has top 2-4 overall potential next year, so this is actually a bargain.
1.10 - Drew Brees – Rock-solid every year. He has a few left, so even though this is redraft, he is a top 20 player in all formats.
1.11 - Julio Jones – Doubt him all you want, this kid belongs here, but know you can probably get him later next year, unless he explodes in Weeks 10-16, which I’m betting on.
1.12 - Calvin Johnson – He is still a top 1-3 fantasy receiver, he just has a touch of injury risk attached to his name moving forward.
This mock draft is based on a redraft format, PPR scoring, and line-up requirements that consist of 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE.
Buy-low alert: Go get C.J. Spiller before Week 10!
Go get C.J. Spiller before Week 10. While there is no guarantee that Buffalo will use him more than they have over the past couple weeks, it’s important to remember that before he got banged up in Week 3, he pulled in 2 receptions for 42 yards and a score. And before that, he was arguably the best fantasy back in football through the first two weeks of this season, rushing for 169 yards and 1TD in Week 1 and 123 yards and 2TDs in Week 2 (and had 25 and 47 receiving yards). Again, there are no guarantees here, but if you believe in Spiller like I do, and want the best buy-low target year-to-date, go get him now, especially in dynasty leagues, because he will never be cheaper.
Looking For Week 10-Only Rankings?
View these Weekly Line-Up Rankings here (week 10 only, and we have both PPR and Non-PPR).
Note: These rankings could be updated as early as Tuesday afternoons, but could be ready as late as Wednesday evenings at 6pm EST. These Weekly Rankings are maintained by Mile_High_Man.