What’s the key to having a good fantasy football draft? The answer is quite simple, but often overlooked. The answer is Preparation.
As obvious as “being prepared” sounds, preparedness is more than just ranking players and knowing ADPs (average draft positions)…
Enjoy
Going WR/WR In 2013?
Everyone knows that going running back with at least one of your first two draft selections is a highly-recommended draft strategy by most; Some even live by the RB-RB approach, where you almost certainly grab runners with your first two draft selections. Nothing is wrong with these approaches. However, if you are looking for a secret plan of attack for 2013, and you are a sleeper-geared drafter, I have an approach for you… it involves not selecting a running back until at least the third-round. What is the strategy? It’s built arounds having only sleeper running backs. That’s right, ONLY sleeper runners. There is one stipulation with trying this strategy, though… you almost have to have a middle-to-late first-round draft slot for this to work, as this strategy almost certainly requires that you land a couple specific players, or one of two specific players. Without the players mentioned, the strategy does not feel as ironclad, so just keep that in mind as you follow along.
Round One
In the first-round, grab either AJ Green or Calvin Johnson. And, as mentioned, you almost have to have [level-all]a middle-to-late round draft selection to attempt this draft approach, as the second round player recommendation is key to this strategy working, and that player most likely will not be available deep in the second-round.
Round Two
Grab Julio Jones with your second-round pick. Again, as mentioned, you almost need a high second-round pick for Jones to be available in the second-round (as his ADP is climbing up near No. 14 or No. 16 overall). Having two of AJ Green, Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson by your second pick is truly the key to this strategy, as all three receivers are, in my view, by far and away the top three receivers entering 2013. Having two of these three players is the only way I attempt this strategy, so trading up in the second-round is advised if need be, which is something I touch on later.
Round Three
Here is another KEY piece of this strategy – Land David Wilson in the third-round! Drafting both Julio and D-Wilson could prove tough in some leagues that value both extremely-high, and in those situations, I recommend some potential solutions and remedies for that, which you will read about below. For now, let’s assume you can land the players named so far, so let’s move on to round four.
Round Four
This round is where you either land your QB, or your second running back, but this group truly feels like the main group to target in order to make this strategy work: Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Lamar Miller. Personally, unless it’s a DraftCalc-based league, I go for the homerun quarterback in this 4th-round, especially if Cam is sitting there. Cam is arguably the steal of any draft, even in the third-round, so don’t let him pass you by if he falls to your 4th-round selection. If for some reason both Brady and Newton are gone by your fourth-round pick, and of course I’m assuming that both Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are gone, Peyton Manning in round four or five is not a deal breaker. Plus, Miller, in most non DraftCalc-based leagues, could fall to the fifth-round, and this is why QB in the fourth-round feels right. The last thing I’ll add is that sometimes Darren McFadden makes it into the fourth-round; don’t pass up on that kind of low-risk/high-reward type value!
Middle Rounds
While I don’t have all of the 2013 sleeper running backs lined up just yet, I do know Shane Vereen is on the list, and near the top of it! Having Vereen, as well as a few other runners like him, maybe a 5th-round rookie for example, will be the key to driving this theory home. You will have to create a running back farm full of sleepers, which could take a lot of hard work on the weekly waiver wire as well… In hindsight fashion, if you succeed and plan well, your league mates will call you “lucky” for pulling off this actually well planned out “sleeper running back-driven” approach, which again is based around loading up on almost surefire receivers like AJ Green, Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones.
Your Draft Should Look Like This
And Your Team Should Look Like This
QB: Cam Newton or Tom Brady (round 4)
RB1: David Wilson (round 3)
RB2: A rookie (round 5 or 6) or Shane Vereen (round 7-8)
WR1: AJ Green or Calvin Johnson (round 1)
WR2: Julio Jones (round 2)
Flex: ____________
TE: ______________
Now, I know the first thing some of you are thinking is that it could be near impossible to land all of the said players with a draft selection stemming from the 1.06-1.12, but honestly, I think this strategy only grows problematic if your league is filled with DraftCalc users. However, to manage that kind of situation in preemptive fashion, I recommend that fantasy owners (those anticipating obstacles) trade up in both the 2nd- and 3rd-rounds. If Julio Jones won’t fall to let’s say a 2.02 or 2.04, trade up slightly! If David Wilson won’t fall to even the 3.02 or 3.03, trade up! These kinds of trade-ups might only cost you small move downs in the 6th- to 10th-round range. I’ve easily been able to pull off such moves by even giving someone my 14th-round pick for their last pick in the draft, as it seems, at a glance, outrageous to turn such offers down. Don’t give up your 5th-round selection or anything, just trade down middle-to-late draft selections to get your move-ups. Sometimes to make this strategy work (Newton, Wilson, Vereen, Calvin, Julio) you need to know your league and you need to think ahead in order to land all of the players mentioned. As much as I advise against this using other receivers than mentioned, if you alter the course a touch and take a running back in place of one of the receivers, a WR-RB team built around most of these players will have you set-up nicely entering 2013!
Trading Out Of The 1.01, 1.02 Or 1.03?
Almost every season it seems as though the 1.01 and 1.02 (sometimes even the 1.03) are gold. Most years those top 2-3 players are heads and shoulders above the rest, and usually all 2-3 are running backs. Last year it was Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy (and of course Adrian Peterson shocked even his believers), and in 2011, it was Peterson, Foster and Rice who topped the ADP Data (with CJ2K in the mix). Well, this year is unusual, as the player that you draft at 1.08 is arguably as good as the player at 1.01. Of course, this is always possible each year at season’s end, but this year is unusual because the player you take at 1.08 could get drafted at 1.01 and no one would crack a smile. Here is the top eight overall players in a lot of people’s eyes heading into 2013:
1. trent richardson
2. adrian peterson
3. cj spiller
4. ray rice
5. arian foster
6. doug martin
7. calvin johnson
8. jamaal charles
Now, mix in AJ Green, Aaron Rodgers and even LeSean McCoy (assuming you land Bryce Brown later), and all of the sudden you’re talking about 10-11 guys that arguably could finish as the No. 1 overall fantasy player at season’s end. If there was ever a year to trade down from a top overall pick, it’s this year. If you own the 1.01, or 1.02, or even the 1.03, consider a trade-down in the first-round and move-up your second-round pick, your third-round pick, or both. Test those trade waters. Even better, use a 1.01 or 1.02 to trade-down in order to get either Calvin Johnson or AJ Green, then move up your second and third so that you can attempt to acquire the kind of team mentioned in the above WR-WR Strategy!
Mix Your Teams Up!
Almost no one plays in just one league anymore, and that’s partly to do with not having one injury crash and burn your entire fantasy football season. While I don’t recommend that one plays in 10 different fantasy leagues, like so many of us so called “experts” play in (it can almost ruin the fun), but I do advise that every fantasy owner play in at least 2-3 leagues. And, if you do, mix your teams up! Don’t draft all of the same players in every league, as one injury can ruin your entire fantasy year! Drafting deep sleepers across all leagues is no problem, as the cost is low and the upside could have you winning 2-3 championships vs. 1; but, don’t put all your expensive eggs in one basket no matter how much you like that first- or second-round breakout!
Don’t Undervalue This Year’s 1.01 Or 1.02 Rookie Picks!
I can’t tell you how many times I read forum posts where fantasy owners are almost giving away the 1.01 or 1.02 rookie picks in trades, or they are expressing their extreme concern regarding the players that will likely fall to their 1.01 or 1.02 rookie draft slots. Is it possible that no running backs land in ideal spots? Sure, anything is possible, but it’s highly unlikely. In fact, it’s extremely unlikely. Extremely! The most common overreaction I come across is “What if Eddie Lacy lands in a bad spot?“, or “What if Montee Ball gets drafted by Tampa Bay?” My answer to that is: Knile Davis, Le’Veon Bell and Christine Michael, come on down! Even Giovanni Bernard and Andre Ellington could slip into a starter role if Ball and Lacy don’t land in ideal situations. The bottom line is this… Green Bay, Denver, St. Louis, Indianapolis, New York (Jets) and Pittsburgh will likely draft running backs, or at least a handful of those teams will in a worst-case scenario. Does anyone honestly believe that 1-2 of Davis, Ball, Bell, Michael, Bernard, or other, won’t become this year’s version of Doug Martin? What I mean by that is, look how good of a fantasy prospect Martin is entering his second season… He is a top 6-10 overall pick entering his sophomore campaign. I have very little doubt that one of the 2013 incoming rookies I mentioned above will have at least top 8-14 overall value (or higher) entering their second fantasy football seasons. Now, the trick will be landing the right rookie with your 1.01 or 1.02, but we can help you with that with our growing assortment of rookie-only content.
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A beautiful plan Smitty, say what do you think about the likes of Marshall/Dez in here? They’re right behind Julio in the rankings and a mere 2 points behind in projections. Solid stuff I’ll weigh in when I draft 10 spot in august (10 team redraft ppr format).
The reason I used AJG, Calvin and Julio is because they feel surefire to me. Dez and Marshall have the talent to be top 3WRs, sure, but counting on them to be that good in the middle of such a risky strategy is not something I’d count on. If you feel some players are interchangeable, by all means, roll with it, but I don’t. Julio, Calvin and AJG feel safe… Dez and Marshall are just riskier versions with similar talent, though, no question.
Smitty, in regards to your WR/WR strategy, say if Julio is gone before you get around to your second round pick. Would B. Marshall or Dez, if they were still available, be good substitues for Julio? Or, now that Gronk’s availability is in question now, Jimmy Graham (thinking that he’s going to produce stats of a top 10 WR)?
Honestly, this plan is only something I’d try with the above players. If you feel the players you mentioned are going to be as good, it would still work, but the reason I used AJG, Calvin and Julio is because they feel as surefire as surefire can be. Dez is amazing, top 1 -3 no question, but he is more risky, and I do fear his new found top 12 overall value could lead to some disappointment this year. Marshall has the talent, but he also is tough to count on with such a risky strategy. So, to answer your question, I won’t tell you these two receivers (dez and marshall) won’t be as good, but I wouldn’t do this with either, only with the above players. Even with Graham, nope. I just can’t grab a TE in the 2nd. I won’t suggest it isn’t an approach that can win, it can, it’s just not my style. Great question, though.
Hope to see a draft strategy for early/mid draft position for those of us that don’t trade draft picks in our redraft leagues…
Well, best player available seems to be the way to go when drafting a RB in that top area of the first rounds. So after grabbing that stud RB, with let’s say the 1.01, 1.02 or 1.03, I just go BPA in the 2nd and 3rd, but with my eyes on Julio and Wilson in the 2nd and 3rd. I mean, worst case, do the above with RB in the first, it’s still one fine team you will build! But, there isn’t much to write on drafting from the early first-round except to mirror the above minus the receiver in the first.
Just got done reading this. Nice work Smitty.
A few months ago, with the help of DC Nation and footballjunkies I actaully did this strategy. It was more like Dez, Julio, Cam, D. Wilson. But in the end, after filling out the rest of my team and having the #2 rookie pick, its my favorite team I have drafted so far.
Nice work! Sounds like a good team. It still looks strong even having just one of the three receivers, I have to admit. Something about AJG and Julio scream safe this year, but Dez has just as much talent, just more risk (and that is arguable). Nice team, truly.
Hey Smitty,
I love the outside the box thinking that you always provide us. I believe I will try the strategy in a couple of my leagues. In one league I have AJ Green as my keeper and in another , I have DWilson
My question is…how would the size of the league ( 8,10, 12, or 14) change your thoughts on going WR/WR?
Thanks!
Smitty,
I love your take with this original strategy. Definitely flies in the face of conventional wisdom of the deep WR pool and low supply/high demand RB options but the math can work with the WR position locked and loaded while giving yourself as many cracks as possible at sleeper Rb upside potential.
I have mocked this a dozen or so times from multiple slots and cannot seem to pull it off perfectly. If I draft from an early slot CJ is doable but Julio is usually gone. The best Ive done with an early slot is CJ with demaryius…. nabbing Wilson with (sometimes Miller) Brady or Cam in the fourth and lots of RB sleepers.
The closest I have come to finding the sweet spot is at 7. I have grabbed AJ and Julio but miss Wilson in the 3rd. However, I can typically grab DMC here (not super comfortable with that…) and follow with Miller. Am not seeing Cam or Brady fall to me in the fifth obviously but can snag Vereen here followed by Russell Wilson in the 6th.
Here is my last mock: AJ, Julio, DMC, Miller, Vereen, R. Wilson, T.Y., Pead, Pierce,Hillman…..
Gonna keep playing with it.
I think in a smaller league it could work even better, as you will land RBs no doubt. It’s tough to say, as the flow of a draft means a lot as well.
Keep us posted, Kalispellian!
Thanks, Smitty…That’s what I was thinking.
My other question is, at 1.06, which rbs would you NOT pass over for AJ or Calvin?
Honestly, because of my WR/WR strategy, I can’t say I would NOT pass on certain rushers at 1.06 if I’m set on that strategy. However, I guess if Trent Richardson, or Adrian Peterson fell, I’d scratch the WR/WR approach, or any approach I had, but neither RB will fall that far. Passing on Spiller at 1.06 would be hard, though, so I guess he would be the other player I’d consider scratching a non-RB plan for. In 1-2 leagues, I will attempt this WR/WR strategy (with some move ups just to be certain i land the crew i want), and we can talk about this then as well if you want, just comment on the article once I write it. Keep up the solid commenting, GoPack, you are a comment beast and our articles wouldn’t be the same without you chiming in!
I was going to employ your Wr/Wr strategy at pick 11. Ray Rice was still on the board. JJ was still there but I couldn’t pass on Rice and hope to get JJ on way back. CJ and Green were both gone. Would you pass on Rice? I can see this happening again. Dave S
I like Rice, and would have thought about aborting a WR/WR plan of attack for Rice, but be sure to back him up with Bernard Pierce! You can always go WR/WR in another draft. But, you may want to go WR/WR in a league that allows for trading, this way you can trade up if need be.
Thanks for the kind words, Smitty. Then, I guess that makes you the ff website beast!
Just a quick follow up…
In quite a few mocks so far, I have seen Darren, SJax, Reggie, and DMurray sitting there in the 4th. If that was the case, according to your rankings right now, I’m assuming you would take them in that order? I guess I would although it would depend on who I already have at rb. For example, in one league, I have Wilson as my keeper
Thanks again, man!
Yeah, that’s tough, all are risky. I would not double up on too many in multiple leagues, but DMac is the one with the most upside. Murray has huge upside, but the most risk IMO. Reggie concerns me, only because he may not stay healthy, but while healthy, he should have a big season. Big. SJax has big mileage, but will get those scoring situations handed to him. Yeah, the rankings tell you what I’m thinking, but that doesn’t ‘mean I won’t go one in one league, then another in the next just to say spread out and safe with those risky types.
Ok, what do you think of this?
In one league, I have AJ Green as my keeper. At 1.06, I got a good chance at Calvin. On the return,…a good shot at Julio.
We start 2rbs, 2wrs, 1rb/wr and its nonppr.. Would you go with those 3 if opportunity presented itself and starting a wr in the flex? I have always leaned toward starting a rb in the flex in nonppr …
I would try it, sure. You just have to really work hard building a stable of backs, and be prepared for many to laugh at your RBs. Keep the faith, work hard, and the laughs will be a distant memory a year from now. I can’t tell you how many leagues I’ve won enduring some initial draft day laughter.
Even if you don’t land studs, just serviceable runners, you could still win a league with those three WRs and a strong QB (if you can elite QB). If you land a big up and coming RB, like last year’s Lamar Miller (who was a free agent add/drop guy last year in most leagues), you could dominate for a decade and shut this league down and make people all of the sudden “not have time for a league” 
What if….
So Im mock’n the wr/wr strategy for my upcoming dynasty maiden draft from the 8 spot. Now…there is NO way CJ or AJ will fall to me here but with the new influx of RB talent what if….
Julio with one of Marshal/Demaryius/Cobb
than a bunch of RBs with veteran/youth mix and a late QB to help pad the RB depth. Looks like I could pull-off something like this…
Julio
Marshal/Demaryius/Cobb
Miller?Bush
SJackson
Bell
Manning
Vereen
Stacy…..
Depending on how things go maybe I could trade up to get a second 5th and grab Ball as well. Looks like it could be a risky RB mix with no clear cut #1 but LOADS of upside.
Thoughts?
I don’t take Cobb or Thomas in that second WR spot. Marshall is a close call, but arguable to make that strategy work. If you have no options at WR for that strategy, DO NOT force it, as it sounds like that’s a situation where the RBs are falling, and you should draft against the grain, landing all the good RBs and when everyone switches to RB mode, you grab WRs like Cruz, Fitz, etc.
That said, I do target Wilson or Miller in the 3rd or 4th, or Ball/Bell there as well. Grab one of those breakout/undervalued backs!
But if WRs fly off the board, try the WR/WR thing in another draft and clean up drafting against the trends!
Or Gore in the 4th and Lattimore in the 11th or 12th….
Just tried this from the 10-spot in a 12-team, 15 round mock. Ended up with:
1.) AJ Green
2.) Julio Jones
3.) David Wilson
4.) Cam Newton
5.) Montee Ball
6.) T.Y. Hilton
7.) Shane Vereen
8.) Jared Cook
9.) Cecil Shorts
10.) Jonathan Franklin
11.) Zachary Stacy
12.) Vincent Brown
13.) Deandre Hopkins
14.) Defense
15.) Kicker
Man, Smitty, dunno if I like that… I mean, it’s a good squad- but the RBs might scare me too much… Seems like you’re counting on luck by injury/WW/etc. Good thing we have 4 months to think about it. Thanks!
-Gabe
First, welcome to the site! Second, I love the squad you just mocked up! Again, though, in only recommend this bold and admittedly risky approach in one of your leagues. Or two leagues if you do a grip!
I am constructing such a squad now in a dynasty league, but only had tithe Julio piece already (existing league), so I’m a few trades away still!
actually went wr,wr last year cuz i got the 9 spot in a 10 team snake…
1st four rounds had
calvin
julio
matty ice
doug
……won that league :^), will do it again if i get another late pick.
4 leagues finished 1st, 1st, 3rd, 4th
was living on your upside board in the middle late rounds…
love your site Smitty!!!
Thanks, Ranman! Keep it up!
When do you suggest drafting a Defense and Kicker? Is an elite Defense like Seattle worth an earlier pick?
Thanks!
Smitty,
Assume the following…. You take T-Pain in round one and Julio in round two. If you fear someone will take Miller ahead of you in round four, do you take Miller in round three? Is that considered reaching or a good bet?
Thanks bud!
Round three is no longer a reach for Miller, and given his first-round ceiling value, I take him there if you think you have to. His ADP is now around 3.04, so I think you have to. Trent, Miller, Julio… amazing start. Amazing.
This is the strategy I have followed for the past 3 years, won the league twice, and had the best record/highest scoring team in the other year. I totally dominated the league last year after finding your site Smitty, and using your upside guide to pick the RB sleepers. I picked 4 WR and 1 RB and then a QB to start off the draft and was mocked at the draft. But thanks to your site, I picked up CJ Spiller to go with J Charles and an unknown guy at the end of the draft named Alfred and never looked back. If you follow the herd and draft RB’s early as EVERYONE ELSE is saying this year, you will probably end up with an average team just like the others. This strategy does work if you are picking at the end of Rd 1, but only if you can identify the sleeper RB’s to load up on later in the draft. It also helps to pick the right WR’s, using the upside board LY I picked J Jones, AJ Green, B Marshall, D Bryant and R Cobb Trust in Smitty.
You da man, DangerBird! Thanks, I tossed your comments up on our testimonials page.
Keep up the ‘outside of the box’ thinking!
I went with the WR/WR strategy and this is the team I ended up with.. Yahoo gave me a B-
1. (4) A.J. Green (Cin – WR)
2. (17) Julio Jones (Atl – WR)
3. (24) Trent Richardson (Cle – RB)
4. (37) Darren McFadden (Oak – RB)
5. (44) Cam Newton (Car – QB)
6. (57) Rob Gronkowski (NE – TE)
7. (64) Lamar Miller (Mia – RB)
8. (77) T.Y. Hilton (Ind – WR)
9. (84) Kenny Britt (Ten – WR)
10. (97) Eli Manning (NYG – QB)
11. (104) Fred Davis (Was – TE)
12. (117) Chris Givens (StL – WR)
13. (124) Shane Vereen (NE – RB)
14. (137) Baltimore (Bal – DEF)
15. (144) Garrett Hartley (NO – K)
Wow. That’s better than most could pull off. Lamar, Vereen, McFadden with Julio and AJG? How did you get Trent Richardson as well if you went WR/WR? Keeper league? That team is sick, looks unbeatable honestly…
It is a 8 team redraft league. I don’t know how Trent Richardon was still available in the 3rd round.
Third? he is arguably your best player
Great job, man! Put on a “draftcalc approved” clinic!