With the Week 3 Sunday games in the rear view mirror, it’s time to start looking at Week 4 of the 2013 fantasy football season. Who should fantasy owners trade away? Who should fantasy owners wait on? Who should fantasy owners trade for? Who are this week’s top waiver wire grabs? Let’s get to it!
Time To Worry!
- David Wilson – RB NYG
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David Wilson – RB NYG
David Wilson is starting to look like one of the bigger busts thus far in 2013, and while fantasy owners can’t give up on Wilson entirely, no one can predict, with any confidence, when the Giants are going to again attempt to consistently run the football. If the Giants smarten up and use Wilson properly, I think he has a big rebound down the stretch, but again, it all boils down to that Giants’ coaching staff, which is a unit I do not trust whatsoever right now. Selling low isn’t an option, though, because if you sell-low and Wilson does bounce-back, you’re going to get burned twice and hate Wilson for it. That said, if you can make a crafty trade, one that downgrades your elite QB into a still-solid QB, but upgrades Wilson, consider making that kind of move. For example, let’s say you have Aaron Rodgers and David Wilson… maybe you go after a combo like Robert Griffin III and Marshawn Lynch using your two players. Those are the kind of moves that can turn an awful situation into a rebound-type situation. More importantly, that’s the kind of move that won’t have you living in regret should D-Wilson rebound, because you still are likely to get great value out of your duo. If you don’t like RG3 or Lynch, use different players, as that was just an example of a way to play the Wilson situation without trying to sell him off for pennies on the dollar, which is what you’d likely have to do if you just attempted to trade him all by himself. Package deals are the only way to get back sneaky-like value in a Wilson-constructed trade (at the moment).
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- Lamar Miller – RB MIA
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Lamar Miller – RB MIA
Ok, it’s time to panic, but not because I doubt Lamar Miller’s talent level. The dude is elusive, and he proved that on his 49-yard scamper on Sunday. While Miller’s fantasy situation is cloudy, it’s only because of his lack of carries. He only rushed 8 times in Week 3, but managed to pile up 62 yards on that limited workload. How long will it take for Miami to realize that Miller is five times the athlete and runner that Daniel Thomas is? Honestly, I don’t know the answer to that. What I do know is no one should sell-low, but you can sell creative. It’s too late now, but a previous example was trading him in inside some Gio Bernard-type trade, but that ship has sailed. But, go get the next sleeping star! The point is, don’t sell low, entertain offers and sell creative or not at all. Even if he bounces back, you won’t have made a mistake trading away Miller if you made a smart trade. The best way to trade Miller would be to package him into a deal that has him as the second-best player in the deal. For example, let’s say you own Cam Newton as well as another passer like Sam Bradford or Philip Rivers (and of course you own Miller)… You could trade away Cam (on the high) and Miller for one single/better player, like an AJ Green… then just start your other passer! I’m not suggesting that Cam won’t continue his stellar play, in fact I still love Cam moving forward, but sometimes a team needs a new direction, and selling high on a player like Cam can help you rebuild a struggling team into a contender.
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- TY Hilton – WR IND
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TY Hilton – WR IND
TY Hilton went missing in Week 1, then rebounded into a 100-yard performer in Week 2, then fell back into the almost-missing category again here in Week 3. Well, don’t give up on the youngster, and no, I don’t feel that Darrius Heyward-Bey is threatening his long-term value, or even his value 1-2 games from now. Heyward-Bey is a part of that Colts offense just like a Harry Douglas is a part of Atlanta’s offense… he has a role, sure, but I still see Hilton as a rising star. If you disagree, or feel I’m just a year early, that’s one perspective, and it’s entirely possible; however, even if he has a few hit and miss type weeks between now and mid-season, I am still extremely-confident that Hilton will be playing at a fantasy WR2-type level down the stretch. If you own him, don’t sell him on the cheap, especially coming off a two-catch outing. And for those of you that don’t own him, buy-low if you can (especially in dynasty).
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- CJ Spiller – RB BUF
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CJ Spiller – RB BUF
The panic here relates more to CJ Spiller’s injury, not his talent. Even if healthy, would I be worried about the runner? Absolutely, however, it’s important to keep in mind that Spiller was his old self in Week 2, rushing the ball 16 times for 103 yards, which is 6.4 yards-per-carry. The signs of life were present in Week 2, so let’s not call Spiller a bust yet. Now, Spiller’s injury status is the most important issue at hand, and his health could truly determine his value for the remainder of the season. If he misses time, let’s say a game or two, Fred Jackson will get a chance to earn a larger role in that offense moving forward. This would not be good for Spiller owners. Of course, if Spiller misses even more time than that, well, that’s when the word “bust” will start coming up a ton more. Ok, so let’s talk best-case scenarios! What if Spiller doesn’t miss any time? Sure, there is still concern about F-Jax getting some decent touches moving forward, but Spiller isn’t built for 25 carries-per-game, so even sharing some carries, Spiller can still be a top 5-10 fantasy running back. Is there risk that Jackson takes more carries than expected? Sure, anything is possible, but I think as long as Spiller is healthy enough to play in Week 4, and play well, Spiller owners might be ok. Ok, for those that don’t own the runner… There is enough risk here to NOT buy-low in every league, but I won’t lie, while I’m disappointed in Spiller’s overall production thus far in the leagues where I do own him, I’m trying to buy-low in a couple of my dynasty leagues because the price feels right when compared to the max upside/ceiling).
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Don’t Panic Yet!
- Mike Wallace – WR MIA
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Mike Wallace – WR MIA
Mike Wallace pulled in just 2 balls for 22 yards in Sunday’s Week 3 win over the Falcons. The receiver was covered by Asante Samuel for most of the contest. While Wallace is no fantasy WR1, or even a high-end WR2, he remains a very strong fantasy WR3 heading into Weeks 4-16. If you own him, don’t sell-low. If you don’t own him, consider buying very, very low, this way it’s all upside.
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- EJ Manuel – QB BUF
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EJ Manuel – QB BUF
E.J. Manuel completed just 19-of-41 passes on Sunday, but still managed to throw for 243 yards and a touchdown; he also rushed the football six times for 40 yards in the Bills’ Week 3 loss to the Jets. I’m noticing quite a bit of doubt surrounding this kid coming out of Week 3, but doubters must remember that Russell Wilson wasn’t even drafted in a majority of fantasy leagues heading into last season, and he was dropped by thousands and thousands of fantasy owners (that did draft him) after his first couple starts. It takes time for rookie quarterbacks to develop. If you ask me, he is doing great for a rookie, and I still firmly believe we are looking at a top 5-10 fantasy QB of the future. Hang tight if you own him in dynasty, and buy-low in dynasty if you don’t already own him!
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- Jared Cook – TE STL
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Jared Cook – TE STL
After pulling in 7 receptions for 141 yards and 2TDs in Week 1, Jared Cook went dormant in Weeks 2 and 3, pulling in 1 ball for 10 yards in Week 2 and 5 balls for 44 yards in Week 3. Cook is still a top 2-4TE moving forward, regardless of the mediocre Weeks 2 and 3. Don’t even consider giving up on this kid.
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Add/Drop Advice Heading Into Week 4
- Bilal Powell – RB NYJ
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Bilal Powell – RB NYJ
In larger leagues, Bilal Powell won’t likely be available, however, in smaller leagues he could still be sitting in your league’s free agent pool. While the Jets aren’t exactly the most ideal fantasy situation, Powell has to be one of this week’s top free agent pick-ups after racking up 27 rushes for 149 yards in the Jets’ Week 3 win over the Bills. Chris Ivory, who injured his hamstring in the contest, lost at least half of his starting gig to Powell after this game (maybe more).
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- Charles Clay – TE MIA
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Charles Clay – TE MIA
If you are in need of a back-up tight end, Charles Clay deserves a look.
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- Stephen Hill – WR NYJ
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Stephen Hill – WR NYJ
He is not likely available in any larger leagues, but if you need a solid WR3 moving forward, and your league has tiny rosters, give him a look. He just pulled in 3 passes for 108 yards and a score in Week 3.
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- Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling – RBs ATL
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Jacquizz Rodgers / Jason Snelling – RBs ATL
This could change, but word is that Steven Jackson could be out another week or so, which means that both Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers are solid pick-ups (if even available in your league). Rodgers posted 86 rushing yards on 18 carries in Week 3, and Snelling ran for 53 yards and pulled in 4 passes for 58 yards and a score. Clearly both will get a significant amount of touches as long as S-Jax is out of action.
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- Fred Jackson – RB BUF
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Fred Jackson – RB BUF
Like with a few of these players listed in this section, Fred Jackson won’t likely be available in larger leagues. Even if CJ Spiller (knee) is good to go for Week 4, Jackson might prove to be flex-worthy until further notice. And, if Spiller is out of action for a significant amount of time, Jackson will have RB2-type value with ease (per start). Monitor Spiller’s health today – we should hear something by the middle of the day.
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- Christine Michael – RB SEA
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Christine Michael – RB SEA
Christine Michael isn’t likely available in any dynasty leagues, I don’t care how small the rosters are, but in some redraft leagues, this guy is sitting on waivers. Now, if you can only roster 4RBs or something, it’s understandable that it’s too early to pick him up, but in most all other situations, it’s time to grab him if you haven’t already. He made his debut in Week 3, looking solid on his 9 carries for 37 yards.
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- Dwayne Harris – WR DAL
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Dwayne Harris – WR DAL
If you were here at DraftCalc.com during the early off-season, you will likely remember us talking up Dwayne Harris. That’s because we love this kid’s upside and see Victor Cruz potential should he get a shot. Will he ever get a long-term shot? That’s tough to say, but with Miles Austin (hamstring) injured, things are looking solid for Harris. Monitor Austin’s health, as that will determine Harris’ value moving forward.
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- Johnathan Franklin – RB GB
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Johnathan Franklin – RB GB
It’s tough to roster back-up runners in some leagues, for example if your league has very small rosters, but it’s time to grab Johnathan Franklin in most all leagues. Honestly, he isn’t on waivers in many leagues I’m in, as I would have grabbed him already, but looking at wide range free agent pool data, it looks like he is a free agent in a lot of redraft leagues out there. His 13 carries for 103 yards and a score in Week 3 should tell you that he has tremendous upside (if you didn’t know already). And, with James Starks (knee) banged up (and already proven to not be full-time worthy), and Eddie Lacy, an injury-prone rusher, coming back from a concussion, it’s not hard to envision an scenario in 2013 where Franklin gets a chance to shine.
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- Brian Hoyer – QB CLE
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Brian Hoyer – QB CLE
Brian Hoyer surprised a lot of people in Week 3, and you can include me on that list. The passer completed 30-of-54 passes for 321 yards, 3TDs and 3INTs in Sunday’s Week 3 win over the Vikings. He looked very polished, considering the situation he was shoved into, so it’s not hard to imagine him having some success moving forward. Is he a star on the rise? Let’s not get carried away just yet, but he is worth grabbing in dynasty leagues that have large rosters.
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I’m wondering if it’s time to sell high on Kenbrell Thompkins after his week 3 performance in light of Gronkowski and Amendola likely to be heading back into the lineup. What is he worth in a PPR heavy league?
Might be. Depends on what you can get. I think he is capable of being a solid WR3 like we thought during the preseason. Unsure what happened to him in Weeks 1-2, but Week 3 looks a lot more like what we all expected. Selling high is always a good idea with such players, if the price is right of course.
Sold spiller on a dynasty Saturday 24 hours after getting him for dmac and d hop
An offer of forte and v jax was too much to pass for spiller …
Trade Danny a fir d hop to get him back ?
Forte alone is a good swap, and you got VJax? Nice work. yes, trade Danny boy for Hopkins in a heartbeat if this is dynasty. Even if redraft, this could be a safe move, although, if healthy, Amendola will play very well. Will he ever stay healthy, though? The Forte move was excellent. I couldn’t imagine getting Forte alone let alone more like you did. I still like Spiller a lot, don’t get me wrong, but Forte is playing amazing football and I am sold that all that will continue.
Christine Michael & David Wilson vs. DeMarco Murry in PPR dynasty.
Thoughts?
Tough call. The way Murray played last week, you’d have to say Murray – for now. However, I can’t say I’m not a touch worried about him for the long-term. This match up was always great for Murray, but is the runner we saw in Week 3 here to stay? Tough call. Other thoughts?
I’m all aboard the stephen hill rocky roller coaster ride. Just try not to watch the games.
He is a good receiver. Again, not likely available in larger leagues, but worth mentioning for those in leagues where he is on waivers and floating at the top of the available free agent WR pool.
Thanks smitty
In trying to go Danny a and hill for
His d hop and tavon ….
Dynasty
2 for 1 trades are always solid to build up your line up, or to make room for free agent players that just shouldn’t be on waivers. Nice work.
Smitty, what are your thoughts on Brandon Bolden?
Good upside, and it looks like NE will use him. Hopefully he will be worthless once Vereen comes back
But until then, absolutely give him a roster spot if you have spots to burn! He would be a risky flex play for sure, but with byes, injuries, i could see myself having to start him in situations, sure.
Do you see Dwayne Harris outperforming Terrance Williams?
I do. Then again, I did last year. Coaching is the Kryptonite to fantasy scouting. I predicted a breakout for Victor Cruz the season before he broke out. I followed that up with predicting it again the year he actually broke out, and he was undrafted that year in so many leagues… I look at this situation the same. I see the talent, but it’s hard to predict the coaching moves. I sure hope he gets a shot.
Great write up Smitty! As a Powell, Harris, Michael, Cook and Manuel owner I couldn’t agree more and of course am biased to see all the above come to fruition! I only slightly disagree on 1 thing – Fred Jackson! I’ve taken a ton of heat for praising Freddie and was told repeatedly how worthless he is! Glad you have him as RB2, I would suggest RB1! He is truly the complete back, excellent runner, pass catcher, QB protector and goal line! He will return to top 5-10 production should Spiller miss time…..In my opinion
“Should” Spiller miss time, he is a RB2 yes. If Spiller returns, he becomes a flex play still, but I don’t see even near RB1 numbers, or even high-end RB2, if Spiller is healthy. And it looks as if Spiller will be ok, although, you never know about this week as we near the weekend. Keep tabs on Spiller. You may want to go get Spiller on the cheap in that league you are talking about.
1. Which one should I drop to get Franklin? Or is he even worth it?
D Hopkins, Bryce Brown, C Michael.
2. Is it worth it to drop Vereen and pick up Franklin?
Thanks.
I actually have combos of those guys, and I think the exact same combo in one league… I can’t grab Franklin either in those situations. I want to, and my temptation is to drop Michael (only because the league I’m talking about is redraft), but I just can’t do it. I already own Franklin, or he was drafted, in all the dynasty and redraft leagues that have larger rosters (than the size league we’re talking about in these scenarios).
With Green Bay not playing this week and Lacy to be back week 5, is it not a wast to use a wave pick on Franklin?
One more question. What do you think of picking up Harvin ? If he comes back in week 7, I will have a number 1 WR to go along with J.Jones and Dez for a lot of weeks. Could make me very strong. Hilton and Givens just not doing it in that number 3 spot.
It can be a waste to grab Franklin if rosters are small, sure. All depends on roster size, my man!
Yeah, again, grabbing him is all about roster size as well. He is worth a grab in even medium size leagues, and for sure larger size leagues.
@Smitty and all,
Just got offered Julio Jones for Brandon Marshall. Any reason I’m not seeing to not jump on this? Marshall has been fine, but is Julio enough better to do It?
I jump all over it. Both are great, but Julio is my boy. Both are top 5, though.
Dynasty hit the button now
Redraft ur preference
Hey Smitty,
I was just offered Andrew Luck for Demarco Murray (trying to sell high). The thing is he is an excellent Flex Start on my ppr league at this moment. Well I have michael vick as qb and no good backup. My other RB’s are peterson, cj2k and bernard pierce. I’m strong on receivers. It will be a 4-5 keepers league, so planning to keep Luck on long term. What do you think i should do? Since Vick and Murray are giving a lot of points each week? Thanks!
While it hurts your line up, as you said Murray is your flex, I like this move, yes. I guess scoring could change my mind, but if it’s not crazy scoring, meaning QBs get normal points for yardage and at least 4pts per TD pass, I like the move a lot. If 6pts per TD pass, it’s a no brainer. I am not sold on Murray, I’ll be honest. I could be wrong, you can’t be right about everything, so trust your gut, but I love the move given how good Luck could become.
Scoring is 6pts for passing and rushing td’s
50 passing yards per point
thanks!
so, its a no brainer? lol
Luck has thrown only 3 td’s so far..
I say it sounds solid, but I don’t play in a lot of 1 point per 50 yards passing… what does that do to the QB scoring end of year? How does that shake out when you look at last year, let’s say?
Drop Montee ball and pick up Franklin?
Call me crazy, I say no, especially in dynasty, but I assume this is redraft. It’s a long season. I know things look bad, and maybe I’m just a year early, and I could be wrong, as I can’t be right about every bold prediction, but Lacy will be back and Ball would explode if inserted into the lineup. Will he? It doesn’t look like he will any time soon. I like both, honestly, so if you have two spots to burn, roster both
Trust your gut, though, it’s close enough.
Smitty,
What do you think of Brandon Bolden?
Solid grab, and he is a good flex/bye week guy right now, no doubt. Hopefully he is useless once Vereen returns, though
Smitty,
Would you drop Starks, McGahee, or M Austin
for
Cameron, Cook, S Hill, Broyles, Jaquizz, Bolden, or Franklin? TE’s have to be played as a WR and scoring is a 1pt for every 15 yds receiving. PPR and all other scoring is typical.
Cameron and Cook over Starks and McGahee, maybe keep Austin? If you need a RB I maybe grab Franklin or Rodgers over him, Rodgers if you need a RB now.
Hey smitty I need some advice on selling.
My team non ppr ..u can also put a te in the flex.
Luck.jamaal.steven jackson. Lamar miller.shane vereen cruz. Givens. Ty gordon deandre hopkins. Julius thomas and jordan cameron.
Now with this squad I’m getting a little worried with my rb situation. I’m 3-0 but I’m thinking of moving one of those te’s which would you move and what kind of rbs would u buy low with..or would you stay put
Also I would be posting in the forums but it keeps telling me that it will send me an email and I don’t know what email I signed up with how can I fix this
Cuse, I’ll email you about your forum ID. As for your question, yes make a trade. Not because I’d be worried, but because actively doing those 2-for-1 trades using great depth (then grabbing another waiver gem, then, repeating) is a strategy always worth using. Jackson or Lamar or both, or one) with a TE for a Lynch or Forte, or an AJG or Julio, try getting a top 10-14 overall talent into that lineup using two of those guys.
Hey Smitty,
What’s your tale on this trade:
Lamar Miller
for
Le’veon Bell
Thanks,
eggman
Pretty even as of now. If Miller becomes the workhorse in MIA, I like Miller more. Will he though? Even if he does, will it happen this week, next, or 8 weeks from now? Is Bell gonna rush back and get hurt again. I call it dead even right now, maybe the edge going to Bell due to the desire PIT has to get him in the line up, which is not the stance of MIA – for now.
Smitty, Do you have any love for Benny Cunningham in St. Louis?
Sure, but Pead, Richardson, Benny Boy, it’s tough to say what’s gonna happen there. If Richardson keeps getting hurt, and it leads to more missed time down the road, Benny has more of a chance. Until then, and this can change fast, Pead is the back to own I think. Who knows, it’s early… at some point, one will look strong. If you have a spot to burn, of course I pick up Benny, especially if you have Pead or DRich.
Smitty dynasty 18 man rosters
A rod. Bradford
Forte. D rich vereen lattimore
Aj green Danny a v jax. Woods hill c pat
V brown
K Randolph. Fleenor
Trade v jax strait up for d hop or pass …
Start 1-3 wr. 1-3 rb. 4 total … Thanks
I have two firsts his and mine his mabee a lottery pick
Someone dropped Bryce Brown. Should I stash him or Franklin? Thanks.
I have a trade offer Randall Cobb and Christine Michael for Trent Richardson in a dynasty league. I am losing the faith in Richardson as a top 10 feature back. He hasn’t showed much burst hitting holes with either team. Would you take the deal?
It’s tough to say for sure when, or if, TRich will get going soon. He does have a tough matchup this coming week against SEA, so I’m afraid more will lose faith after Week 5, but it’s a marathon, one some cannot weather through, as some could lose their playoff spot if they wait. He could be a beast in Weeks 6-16, but if you are 0-5 by then, it might make no difference. Dynasty wise, I like TRich a lot. He has 2TDs in two games as a Colt. There are some positives. Losing faith in dynasty is a bit premature, but you aren’t alone. Many feel the way you do. Trust your gut, as nothing is certain, and we unfortunately are at the mercy of the coaching staff, something no one can predict right now. I like the Trich side, but that’s me. That could change, especially if Lynch suffered a big injury.