With the Week 4 Sunday games in the rear view mirror, it’s time to start looking at Week 5 of the 2013 fantasy football season. Who should fantasy owners trade away? Who should fantasy owners wait on? Who should fantasy owners trade for? Who are this week’s top waiver wire grabs? Let’s get to it!
Time To Worry!
- Trent Richardson – RB IND
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Trent Richardson – RB IND
Trent Richardson has disappointed everyone so far this year, including and especially me. I wouldn’t blame anyone for jumping ship and trying to trade into a crafty Giovani Bernard (plus some) in order to say in the playoff mix. However, in dynasty, I don’t have thoughts of panic like most. I just don’t. He has two touchdowns in two games so far in Indy, and that offense is great for the now and long-term, especially for a goal line and red zone type threat like Richardson. I keep hearing he runs with hesitation. Or, he doesn’t look decisive. Well, he is in a new offense and he is still learning it. If you look at the stat line, sure, close to 3.0 yards per carry is not great. But, if you watched him run, you saw more. You saw some good runs, and some runs where he hit brick walls (not necessarily his fault). Give him a bigger sample in that Colts offense before you lock into “bust” mentality. Also, keep in mind that he faces a tough Seattle defense in Week 5, so don’t be surprised if there are even more doubters after this upcoming week, which could be mediocre yet again. This isn’t a “carelessly sticking to my guns” stance… in dynasty, I still see a top 5-10 fantasy runner. His slow start, the trade (and adjustment that goes along with being traded during the in-season), none of that was accounted for, hence the disappointment we all have (especially me)… but moving forward, I don’t sell in dynasty (not low, at least), but I do consider selling in redraft (if the price is right)… and I buy-low in all other situations, especially in dynasty leagues where I don’t already own him. There might be some risk if you own the guy already, sure, but the real value right now is in buying him low (especially in dynasty). The reason T-Rich sits in the “Time to Worry” category is because it could be 1-2 more weeks before he really finds his full-time gig in that Indy offense. Some cannot afford to wait, so waiting, or not waiting, depends on your league/situation. Need trade help? Post ideas below, or jump on our forum!
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- Stevan Ridley – RB NE
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Stevan Ridley – RB NE
Stevan Ridley had 11 carries for 53 yards in Sunday night’s Week 4 win over the Falcons. While he led the team in carries, LeGarrette Blount (9 carries for 64 yards and a touchdown) is clearly going to steal away some of Ridley’s touches moving forward, and when Shane Vereen returns, things could get even more ugly for Ridley.
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- CJ Spiller – RB BUF
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CJ Spiller – RB BUF
CJ Spiller (knee) is now very questionable for Week 5 (a Thursday night game). This isn’t good, as he was already struggling to keep his starter-type role. While I won’t go as far as to suggest that Spiller can’t rebound, it is time to panic a bit, as a missed week here in Week 5, plus another 2-3 weeks of battling to get his starting gig back… well, none of that helps fantasy owners who are already fighting for a playoff spot. What should current Spiller owners do in redraft? Test the trade waters, no doubt, but don’t sell so low that you are going to lose all ability to play well moving forward. A crafty move would be going after a Gio Bernard (and some), or give-up a touch more and try to buy-low on an AJ Green? Those are just a couple examples, but jump on our forums, or comment below, if you have other ideas for trades. Dynasty owners should definitely NOT sell-low, but testing trade waters is also advised, but with maybe a bit higher expectation. On the flip side of all of this, buying low isn’t a bad idea if you are in a league where you don’t currently own the runner. There is always a time and market to buy-low, and for Spiller, it’s hard to argue that there is a lot of risk (compared to the upside) if you are doing the buying.
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Don’t Panic Yet!
- Robert Griffin III – QB WAS
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Robert Griffin III – QB WAS
Robert Griffin III completed just 18-of-31 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown in Week 4. That stat line isn’t crazy-awful or anything, but fantasy owners everywhere seem to be tempted to jump ship on the passer after this week’s mediocre output, as expectations were high heading into this game. While I can’t blame anyone for wanting to move on, as playoff hopes are sometimes tied to these next few weeks, I think RG3 will get better and better down the stretch. Does that mean he could struggle a bit more before we hit mid-season? Sure. Although, once things start clicking for him physically, I see a big finish.
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- Bernard Pierce – RB BAL
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Bernard Pierce – RB BAL
First off, no one should have invested much to land Bernard Pierce… that goes for redraft and dynasty, so there is no risk in keeping him. I keep hearing many talking about giving up on him, though, which is strange, because he is all upside and no risk. The only risk here is selling low, or cutting him, only to watch Ray Rice suffer an injury later on. There is no harm waiting on Pierce… there is only upside here, and if he ever starts again, I still see top 5-10RB numbers, I don’t care how mediocre he was in his one start in Week 3.
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Add/Drop Advice Heading Into Week 5
- Nate Washington – RB TEN
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Nate Washington – WR TEN
Nate Washington, who may not be available in larger leagues, is a must-add heading into the remainder of the season. He caught four passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4 against the Jets. While I don’t anticipate him cranking out that kind of outing ever again, Washington is a sneaky WR3 moving forward.
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- Tashard Choice – RB BUF
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Tashard Choice RB BUF
With CJ Spiller (ankle) extremely questionable for his Week 5 outing on Thursday night, Tashard Choice will likely play the Fred Jackson-type role in Week 5. That said, F-Jax (knee) is banged up, so there is a chance Choice has a bigger Thursday night than anyone expects. Stay on the news all around on this one! Even if Spiller were to play, and he wouldn’t likely play at full strength, you have to think Jackson would/will have the most opportunities.
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- Ryan Fitzpatrick – QB TEN
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Ryan Fitzpatrick – QB TEN
After starting off on fire in Week 4, going 18-of-24 for 149 yards and three touchdowns, Jake Locker took an extremely hard hit and was taken off the field strapped to a board. It appears to be a hip injury, a pretty bad one, but MRI results will likely be available later today, so stay on the news! Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. He isn’t a great add, but for those of you in 2QB leagues, or maybe a league where you have almost no back-up passer and need a starter, he is worth a look. Even though Locker was hitting his stride, Fitzpatrick might mesh better with Kenny Britt, should Britt get back on the field himself anytime soon.
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- Rashad Jennings – RB OAK
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Rashad Jennings – RB OAK
While he isn’t a great fantasy prospect, Rashad Jennings could see some action if Darren McFadden (hamstring) and Marcel Reece (knee) both can’t play next week.
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- Roy Helu – RB WAS
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Roy Helu – RB WAS
Alfred Morris (ribs) left Week 4 and Roy Helu stepped up rushing 13 times for 41 yards and a touchdown (43 receiving yards). The Redskins have a bye in Week 5, so keep on the news, as Morris could be fine by Week 6. If Morris can’t go in Week 6, Helu would have solid Week 6 value!
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Trent.
Spiller.
Ugh.
TRich… I’d fault someone else, but this is no less than my own! The TD’s are nice past 2 weeks.. just doubting his vision on the field. Who has time to wait?
Trade T-Rich for also under performing AJGreen?
Absolutely. AJ Green is still a first-round talent. I doubt you could even land that without giving up more, as suggested above in my sell-high (as possible scenarios) when it comes to Spiller and TRich.
Which DST for week 5: Rams (vs Jags) or Falcons (vs Jets)?
I go Rams.
What about Spiller in dynasty? I traded McCoy for him and now he’s repeating McCoy’s 2012……not good for me.
While there is risk that he never regains his elite form, I think it’s still quite early to even consider calling him a long-term bust. Selling low is only a good move if you’re getting someone back that you think could explode from the invested value (like let’s say Gio Bernard and a WR upgrade like Fitzgerald into an AJ Green)… those kinds of moves shift the risk, but in a direction you feel is working more in your favor vs maybe drifting out of control.
Again, don’t sell low, but do entertain ideas. Spiller has a lot of making up to do when it comes to his fantasy owners. FJax is getting older, Spiller just turned 26, so he has some time left.
10 Team PPR (+1 40yd Rec and +1 40yd TD)
My roster seems stable, but would you trade AJG/TRich for…
A. Calvin/Forte
B. Andre Johnson/Charles
C. Cobb/Gore
D. Cruz/Lynch
Rank best to worst. I’m not sure I’m feeling TRich. After watching the game, I felt like he was just running into the back of players. At this time, I can sell the “newness” factor at IND and say it’s bound to improve.
Assuming we’re talking dynasty:
1. Calvin/Forte (strong all around)
2. (tied) AJG/TRich
2. (tied) Cruz Lynch
3. Andre Johnson/Charles
4. Cobb/Gore
If redraft, I bump both Cruz/Lynch and AJ/Charles above AJG/Rich, but only in redraft.
Could fantasy owners get knocked out of the playoffs waiting on TRich? Sure, but I think long-term, TRich is going to be ok, and that goes for the second half of 2013… problem is, that might be too late for some, which is why TRich is a “time to panic” for those 1-3 or 0-4, etc. One can’t overreact in dynasty, though, at least in my opinion.
If you were trading TRich straight across for another RB in PPR Redraft who would you target? Doug Martin has been a bust so far but he is getting consistently 25 carries a game…
I’d take Doug Martin in a second, only because I still see him as having very little risk with top 5RB (moving forward) upside. TRich has top 5RB moving forward upside, but with a whole lot more risk given he has the learning curve of his offense and SEA in Week 5. I doubt you get Martin, but even if you gave a touch more, I jump on that. One for one, it’s hard to imagine getting what you deserve, as you’d have to sell low in such a scenario I think… as one for one, it’s easy to say no way to a Trich offer. However, the 2-for-1 (Gio and someone), or the 2-for-2 crafty WR upgrade (like Gio/AJG for TRich/Fitz) type move is the way to go.
Good move? I traded romo and T rich for brees and miller? And I also traded McCoy for D. Thomas and Gio.
I have Reggie, Cj, David Wilson, for RB
And josh Gordon, TY Hilton, Larry, Nicks, Tavon Austin. For WR
Yeah, that Brees/Miller move could turn out solid if Miller keeps getting the ball. I can identify the talent, and I know 100% that Miller has elite fantasy running back talent. The obstacle is that coaching staff. Even tonight, we are at the half and Miller is dominating given his opportunities, with 50 and a touchdown. Will he continue to get the ball? Let’s hope. The McCoy move was tough, as he is lights out, but long-term I do worry, and Gio and Thomas could easily be just as effective once Gio gets more touches, and if Thomas keeps playing lights out.
Standard Scoring
QB
Pryor
RB
Lamar Miller
TRich
WR
Julio
Josh Gordon
TE
Julius Thomas
Flex
Jordan Cameron
Bench
Le’Veon Bell
David Wilson
Trade offer :
Should I trade David Wilson and Le’Veon Bell for Doug Martin and TY/Givens?
Anything can happen, but absolutely I’d do that trade. I may do it even just for Martin, but surely get more if you can.
Hey Smitty,
Nonppr, redraft…
I have Julio and AJ at wr and would like to try for Dez for my flex.
Thinking Lamar/decker for Dez
Rbs: DMurray,Lamar, DWilson, Gio, LBell, spiller (we start2)
Would you be fine with that?
I would, sure. With those WRs, players that can last a decade (whereas RBs don’t), you could even weather a bad year or two building up those RBs, but you don’t even need that year or two, as you have Gio, Bell and Spiller. With those three WRs, yeah, I love that team for grips and grips of years. Even if that crew, minus Dez, has you slow starting, it’s not a normal start to a fantasy year. You might even be able to trade Miller and Bell or Spiller and Wilson for a Doug Martin right now? Not saying I’d for sure do that yet, but just an idea. Doug Martin’s value will climb soon, I think, though.
Hey Smitty, I’m sitting pretty comfortably right now at 3 and 1 in my league. AP, Trich, Miller, and Ball are my rbs and my wr’s are bowe, a. brown, gordon, hilton, givens, and thompkins. Someone in my league really really wants to trade away doug martin to someone (he even posted on our fb fantasy group page). Should I pull the trigger and trade trich straight up and maybe even trade for one of his wr’s too (reggie wayne or andre Johnson), or should i wait out on trich and trust my wrs?
I’d do it straight up, of course. DMartin was ranked higher on most people’s boards before Week 1, and I think with the slow start in INDY, SEA being his match up in Week 5, and with some more learning that he needs to do, Martin is a steal. Getting more would be robbery.
All 3 time to worry RBs are on my dynasty team…
Smitty, thoughts on trading Trent and Spiller for McCoy and D Wilson?
I think you’d be hard pressed to get just McCoy for both RBs, although I’m not suggesting you trade both for just the one. I just mean, trade values indicate that would be a lot to ask for given how McCoy is currently playing. So yes, do that in a heartbeat, if not just for trade value. I still love McCoy, always have from a talent perspective, but I’d go get Bryce Brown. As I said all off-season, it doesn’t matter how good McCoy looks when on the field, and he always plays like a top 5RB when healthy, one hit and the dude could be done for the year. He may NEVER take a big head shot again, maybe never in his career… so he could play injury free for years, but if he does suffer another concussion, my fear is he will be in some trouble given how severe the last one was (the same path Jahvid Best took, which was the “severe” concussion in college, then the second in the pros).
Hey Smitty, In a non-ppr league should I go out and get R.Jennings, D.Woodhead, or T.Choice, or go with what I’m currently starting, Lacy and Joique Bell/Steven Ridley for wk 5? Thanks
Choice for Week 5. For the seaosn, who knows, maybe Woodhead once Spiller is back. If Spiller plays, maybe Woodhead this week instead of Choice. Unfortunately, many things are up in the air and will be for a few days.
Smitty, at this point do I cut Hopkins and go after Jeffery or Washington? I don’t doubt the guy’s talent but he is just not getting enough targets. I can drop montee ball instead. But I think RBs are more valuable, esp Denver RB. Anyways, which one would you have? Jeffery or Washington?
I think all three are real close, even in redraft. I don’t drop Ball, but many would disagree with me. Even if Ball doesn’t play much at all until let’s say Week 10, he could be worth a lot if starting even for 4-5 weeks. If I had to rank those WRs in redraft, and I do, I’d go off my rankings on the site, so swing by those. It’s close, though. Washington is the hot hand, Jeffery has big upside and Hopkins, as I said all off-season, would show flashes of insane brilliance, but also vanish some weeks as rookies do.
Dynasty league:
T/Rich & kenbrell for Larry F and Lamar Miller?
Wow. Post that one on the forums. I want to think on this one. I think The Miller/Fitz side looks better, as Miller is just so awesome… I just worry his coaching staff is one of the dumbest in history to not recognize they have the key to winning right on their roster. For now, I say Fitz/Miller, but post it on the forums.
Nothing about Jared Cook or T.Y. Hilton? These too guys are killing me in my 10 team standard league…my team was heavily looked at as a favorite in the league because I ended up super stacked at RB:
QB – Andrew Luck, Tony Promo
RB – Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Lamar Miller
WR – Randall Cobb, Pierre Garcon, T.Y. Hilton
TE – Jared Cook, Greg Olsen
Despite that I’m now 1-3 and 7th in the standings, not really sure what to do but it feels like it will be an uphill battle for me to just make the playoffs. Any advice? I think I may have to deal Martin to bolster my thin WR core.
Martin has started off slow, and Cobb will turn it on here. I think your team is fantastic, and not sure how you’re 1-3 even with some bad games by Cook and TY, as those RBs are off the hook. Buy-low AJ Green? Using your depth only, not those top 3RBs, and not even Miller. Cook should rebound, I still love him as a top 4TE moving forward. Hilton will shine as well I think, but you can afford to wait if you only have to start 2WRs. If you have to start 3, I still run him out there, but you could always trade Miller for a WR.
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In Dynasty would you trade RG3, Wayne and CJ2K and a 2014 2nd for Spiller, Patterson and Hilton?
My other RBs are AP, T. Richardson, Vereen, Moreno, Pierce
Do I need another underwhelming performer
I guess it would depend on your WRs…It’s hard to justify losing Wayne this year, even though I’m not sure he has a ton of time left after this year. Spiller is questionable for the next few weeks, and that’s if he is even healthy. Questionable meaning touches… Who is your QB, that also matters.
Rodgers is my QB
WR are Julio, Cobb, Nicks, T. Smith, M. Brown
Smitty got some great news for my rb problems. I currently have Ridley/Vereen, Lacy/Frankllin, and Joique Bell. I’ve got room to stash two more rbs and all the best handcuffs are on waivers. If you could roster two of Montee Ball, Bernard Pierce, C.Michael, Bryce Brown, and Roy Helu, who would take? Thanks!!