It’s the middle of August, and most rookie-only fantasy football drafts have most likely already taken place. If your draft has not yet come and gone, be certain to review our updated 2013 Rookie-Only Rankings, which have just received an August refresh!
Regardless of rookie-only drafts, it’s important to continuously reevaluate the incoming 2013 rookie class, as values can change quickly, proven by Kenbrell Thompkins’ rise in fantasy circles. So, who are my Top 12 Rookies heading into 2013 and beyond? Let’s get to it!
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1. Montee Ball – RB Broncos
There are more Montee Ball doubters out there right now than supporters, which presents a great buy-low opportunity in all formats. While players like Le’Veon Bell and Eddie Lacy appear to be better immediate options entering the upcoming fantasy football season, as Ball is currently not sitting as a clear-cut starter on that Denver roster, I truly see elite potential in Ball; I think patience pays off in this situation, and I feel that talent will shine through in the end. For more on Ball, and why coach Fox and a RBBC do not concern me for the long-term, read what I have to say on Ball on our Upside Board.
2. DeAndre Hopkins – WR Texans
I’ve written on DeAndre Hopkins all off-season long, and nothing has changed. I’ve been saying it for months that this is the next Cris Carter in the hands department, and I truly believe that Hopkins can be a future top 5 fantasy wide receiver. When I watch film on Hopkins, I see a receiver that doesn’t yet even understand his own ability to dominate the space around him. That will come. If you think he isn’t quick enough, not every elite receiver needs to be a burner… Hopkins mirrors Larry Fitzgerald’s speed and style of play, which again is elite. For more on those predictions, be sure to check out our Upside Board.
3.Le’Veon Bell – RB Steelers
Le’Veon Bell’s ADP is rising higher and higher each week, as his coaching staff clearly believes in him as the team’s bell cow. While I like Ball more for the long-term, Bell is clearly one of the safest 2013 rookie grabs due to his instantly-guaranteed 2013 workload. His ceiling is a top 6-10 running back if you ask me, which makes him a fantastic prospect. Even with Ball having more bust potential, and Bell being safer inside his specific situation, Ball has top 5RB upside, or ceiling… both Ball and Bell will be future work horses in this league! For more on Bell and his future, again I refer you to our Upside Board.
4. Giovanni Bernard – RB Bengals
I’m getting more and more excited about Bernard. With every preseason play, he is growing on me. Like with Tavon Austin below, I have long-term concerns about Gio (5-8/202) due to size, but then again, Warrick Dunn had a relatively-long career at his small size (5-9, 180), so one can’t draw conclusions about every player using size comparisons, especially if a team uses a smaller runner in the right ways. Will he ever become Maurce Jones-Drew good, meaning a top 5-10 fantasy rusher? I wouldn’t rule it out, that’s for sure, but again, longevity is where I worry a bit. I only say “a bit”, which is why you still see him at No. 4 overall!
5. Tavon Austin – WR Rams
There is no denying Tavon Austin’s elite speed, nor his quickness, but his size is a bit concerning. Will it limit him from getting open? No. Will it limit him from making big plays? No. Although, will he hold up over the years, and I’m talking more than 3-4 fantasy seasons? That’s the real question when it comes to Austin, who is 5-8 and only 174 pounds. TY Hilton is 5-10 and 183 pounds, and I have projected Hilton as becoming an elite fantasy wide receiver (starting this year), but we’re talking about 2 inches and about 10 pounds when comparing Hilton and Austin, and Hilton was almost already pushing my comfort zone for size (almost is the key word, as he is one of my biggest breakouts for 2013 and beyond!). Do I doubt Austin enough to avoid him entirely? Clearly not, given I have him ranked No. 5 overall for 2013 rookies; however, I have enough concern I can’t rank him higher than this – for now. Things can change, that’s for certain in this business. For 2-3 seasons, I think Austin will excite, much like DeSean Jackson (175 pounds) did for just a couple years… and then concussions soon followed, durability concerns, etc., etc.. Austin is going to take a beating at 5-8, let alone 174 pounds… The players he faced in college were/are far different than those he will be crushed by in the pros. Again, it has nothing to do with talent, speed or quickness, all things that Austin clearly possesses… I just don’t see him being elite for a grip of time, I just don’t.
6. Cordarrelle Patterson – WR Vikings
No one is arguing this kid’s talent or upside when it comes to his skill set; however, his quarterback situation is far from ideal, and his offense will remain built to run. I don’t see a lot of consistency for CP in 2013, and for a raw talent, no matter how skilled, this may leave a lot to be desired from week to week (at least in 2013 and maybe even 2014).. if his QB situation changed, my evaluation would quickly change as well. Now, if you play in a league that awards points for return yardage, that changes everything!
7. Eddie Lacy – RB Packers
I know this is crazy-low for a player some still consider a top 2-5 overall rookie of this 2013 class, but I’ve doubted Eddie Lacy and his health since back in February/March. Again, keep in mind that my rankings don’t always mirror where one should take a player. I have Ball ranked No. 1 overall, but again, that does not mean that I suggest anyone draft Ball, or trade for him, near my valuation… instead, use ADPs and trade market values to your advantage, and that advice applies to Lacy as well, but more in the direction of selling high. Lacy has talent, no question, and he runs a lot like a Marshawn Lynch and Steven Jackson… this means that he could thrive early on in 2013, and he may even play an entire season or two; however, in the end I fear he won’t stay healthy. There is much doubt around his foot being able to withstand a long NFL career, and that’s debatable, as are the sources that suggest either side of this argument… and that makes him a tough player to rank higher than this. Again, he could he thrive early on, and he could very well get many fantasy owners excited about his future, that won’t necessarily change my mind. It could, but I doubt it, as in the end I fear disappointment when it comes to Lacy.
8. Christine Michael – RB Seahawks
While he isn’t in the best of situations, given that Marshawn Lynch is in his prime, and healthy, there is a lot to like when it comes to Christine Michael. Even if you don’t own Lynch, and even if you play in a redraft league, Michael has super-sleeper appeal as a late grab, as he has a skill set capable of producing top 5-10 fantasy running back numbers per start. He may never start, but those are the kind of stash-driven moves that look genius-like if things play out well for the sleeper. As for the future, Michael’s rise will depend on Lynch’s health.
9. EJ Manuel – QB Bills
Enter this year’s Russell Wilson! Yep, I’m already sold, just like I was last off-season with Wilson. I made Wilson my No. 1 Bold Prediction heading into 2012, and let’s just say that was not a popular prediction at the time… We certainly didn’t have a lot to go off of last preseason, other than his preseason action, so much of that prediction was based off of gut instinct. Well, I get the exact same feeling about Manuel as I got when I watched Wilson this time last year. Manuel has the makings of a stud, let’s just hope he gets healthy fast, as he just had minor knee surgery and may or may not be ready for Week 1.
10. Johnathan Franklin – RB Packers
Call me crazy, but Jonathan Franklin is a better running back than Eddie Lacy. I think time will prove me right, but until then, Franklin has sleeper written all over him, especially in redraft leagues (as he can often go undrafted). He may not start a game in 2013, or he may start half a season. Nothing is for sure with this situation, but there is essentially zero risk in all formats when it comes to investing in the ‘forgotten’ Franklin!
11. Marcus Lattimore – RB 49ers
So much can happen between now and when Marcus Lattimore gets his shot to start in the NFL… he could get hurt, Frank Gore may last longer than anyone ever imagined, or the 49ers could draft a future rookie stud… Just look at Johnathan Stewart as an example of opportunity never arriving… Over the last 2-3 years, Stewart has occasionally found himself in many people’s future top 5-10 rushers.. it never happened. It likely never will. I’m not suggesting Lattimore won’t ever be a top 5-10 rusher, in fact I think it’s not too hard to imagine at all, but the example of Stewart should cap Lattimore’s upside in this range, at least until we see him on the field and we see a decline in Gore’s talent.
12. Kenbrell Thompkins – WR Patriots
This receiver might have that Anquan Boldin-type season in 2013. What does that mean? In 2003, everything lined up perfectly for Boldin, who entered the NFL and was forced to mature early… as a rookie, he received veteran-like attention and he cranked out 101 receptions for 1,377 yards and 8TDs. As a rookie! Well, Kenbrell Thompkins could be in a similar situation in 2013 under the direction of Tom Brady. While 101 receptions is hard to imagine, Brady is easily capable of instantly turning Thompkins into a 1,000-yard, 8TD receiver. Thompkins isn’t just a good receiver stuck in a good situation, the guy can ball! He runs tremendously-precise routes, and Brady absolutely trusts him, proven by the crazy-high target ration between the two so far this preseason. And, when you really think about it, with Aaron Hernandez gone, Rob Gronkowski battling to get healthy (who knows what happens there over the course of the season), and with Danny Amendola being very, very injury-prone himself, a fantasy WR3-type season appears to be a worst-case scenario for Thompkins… strong fantasy WR2-type numbers isn’t out of the question!
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