Below you will find a 15 minute long sleeper-based interview between myself (Smitty from DraftCalc.com) and Russ Bliss (NBC Radio 1060am, “The Red Zone”). Russ is also the big dog over at FantasyFootballStarters.com, a great fantasy tool-based site. I want to say thanks to Russ and NBC Radio AM 1060 for having me on the show tonight!
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No job Smitty!
Thanks, Cruiz.
Smitty, i know u said dez in 4th but was offered trent richardson for my 7th round pick since the guy is keeping his 1 player cruz in 15th round. With 1st pick i m getting martin and having richardson in 2nd is sick no ?? Last time i mention it but rb is going to be so thin and ill have martin and richardson to start the draft and only lose and 8th round pick 89th overall, last time dez in 4th or richardson in 2nd
only lose my 7th round pick not 8th i offered 8th he wants 7th
So the teams could be:
Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, and two WR2 type players as your receivers
vs.
Doug Martin, Julio Jones, Lamar Miller and Dez Bryant?
I think it’s somewhat close, and if you think you can get a better WR than a WR2-type, by all means, go the Richardson route.
That said, if you can get Julio or Dez, and I forget if either are even available, or will be, I’d rather have the Martin/Jones/Miller/Dez team by a lot.
The key is this, so answer this… what players will be there for your 2nd round pick? List like 5 guarantees and 2-3 maybes… then we can finally lock this question/answer down
Okay Smitty, its either
1. Martin 2. Richardson 3. Wr’s I will get Colston, Amendola, V Jackson, Bowe Wayne maybe r white 4. Nicks , Garcon, D Jackson, Antonio Brown, T Smith
I was also planning on getting even D Wilson or L Miller in 3rd as flex and start out RB, RB, RB with Martin , Richardson, Miller/Wilson or get the qb cam or brady or the wr’s i listed . I thought u would like this idea cause i start the rb trend and when people go rb nuts frees me wr’s or a cam or brady
or
1. Martin . 2nd round 24th prob fitzgerald 3rd prob on d wilson or miller 4. dez and i dont lose my 8th round pick if that even matters
maybe andre johnson and or cobb as well with 1st scenario but maybe
It’s tough to know, my friend, I just don’t know who will fall to you. I will say I’d rather have:
Martin, Julio (or Fitz), Miller (or Wilson) and Dez
over
Martin, TRich, WR2 type, WR2 type (and in scenarios where you go RB/RB/QB or RB/RB/RB/WR, I’m not so sure you’re going to have good enough WRs.
Now, the interesting scenario could be:
Martin, TRich, Andre Johnson (or Cobb), _____, but do you really think Andre or Cobb would fall? I’d guess not, but only you would know.
If you CANT get Julio in the 2nd (that’s my No. 1 pick by FAR, with keeping Dez), but you can land Andre Johnson or Cobb in the 3rd, then I guess go the TRich route, but the safest play, if you think those WRs won’t fall, is to keep Dez as a 4th rounder, which is 2 rounds later than his ADP, as that lands you:
Martin, Fitz (Julio first if there!), Miller (or Wilson) and Dez.
That’s safe.
The risky route, which yes could score bigger, is Martin/Richardson and hopes that some solid WR talent falls.
Nice job Smitty!!
I just finished drafting in one of my leagues &, thanks to you, I ended up with:
12-Team PPR
By Round:
1. Trent Richardson (Cle – RB)
2. Julio Jones (Chi – WR)
3. Cam Newton (Car – QB)
4. Lamar Miller (Mia – RB)
5. Rob Gronkowski (NE – TE)
6. T.Y. Hilton (Ind – WR)
7. Kenny Britt (Ten – WR)
8. Josh Gordon (Cle – WR)
9. Houston DEF (Hou – DST)
10. DeAndre Hopkins (Hou – WR)
11. Carson Palmer (SD – QB)
12. Bernard Pierce (Bal – RB)
13. Matt Bryant (Atl- K)
14. Zach Sudfeld (NE – TE)
15. Daniel Thomas (MIA – RB)
SQUAD!! Hope it all pans out… Thanks again & Good Luck to DC Nation this year!!!
One word like SQUAD is all you need to describe that team, wow. Is this your grandma and grandpa’s first league and season playing fantasy football with you?
You cleaned up!
^^Redraft league from the 5th position btw
Smitty big keeper league draft tomorrow… I have first overall and keeping doug in the second round. Getting Charles 1st overall (ap, trent, spiller all kept) then doug 24th. So I’ll have 25th pick not sure whether to go WR or QB. Assuming Cam’s there and WR’s like Fitzgerald, Cruz, Andre Johnson, and Roddy White do you pull the trigger on Cam? It is a keeper so I could keep Newton for a 3rd next year.
Thanks for the help,
Dan
Wow, nice start for you. I go best player available as usual, and Fitz might be the guy if there. Julio first, but I bet he is kept. He prob wouldn’t slide that far anyway. Demaryius Thomas and Fitz are dead even there, maybe even Demaryius a touch higher… then, yes, Cam would be a fine pick there, and you can collect a WR group loaded with Hilton, Gordon, Britt, maybe even a Thompkins as your last starting WR. RG3 a touch later with Fitz or Demaryius might be the way to go, though!
Thanks Smitty.
One last question. I have a redraft the week after and I landed 11 overall pick (out of 12). I traded 2, 4, and 8 for 1 (7 overall), 5 (58 overall) and an early 8th round. So I have two first rounders (7 and 11). I’m thinking about going trich and morris. What are your thoughts? Should I go rb rb/ wr wr/ rb wr. I wont have another pick until 3rd rd then again in 5.
Thanks,
Dan
Smitty i should have listen to u from the start keeping dez in 4th. Now my question is in first im starting to think about Richardson over Martin 1st overall since keepers are peterson and spiller. I am shying away from Charles as well. 2nd question is in the 2nd round Julio will be gone if fitzgerald and d thomas are gone not sure who I should pick I know your high on wilson and miller, with keepers 2nd round really isnt 2nd round since everyone has a keeper thinking about grabbing miller or wilson there , who do u prefer in .5 ppr. I could go 1 Richardson 2. Wilson/ Miller/ Rodgers 3. Wilson Miller/ Cam 4. Dez 5. ?? Take best Wr on the board/ QB
cobb will also be there in 2nd but seems 2 early for him
You replied to someone else’s question, dlama
@schumac3 It really is tough to say one way is better than the other. Probably the most common question I get is “who should I take” and this is asked when I have no clue how the flow of the draft will go. It’s not to say you’re asking a bad question, again, so many ask this, it’s only normal to want to get a concrete answer… problem is, there aren no concrete answers, as I feel i can build a winning team going WR/WR with those picks or RB/RB… it all boils down to who is available, added with what your draft strengths are. If you are awesome at landing sleeper RBs, then WR/WR is a great approach, especially if PPR. If you are great at WR sleepers, then RB/RB is great… if you are either great at both, neither stellar or bad at sleeper lands, RB/WR…. and again, that’s mixed in with BPA.
If forced to make a recommendation, not so sure I make that kind of trade up move and pick Morris. Not that I don’t like him, but he doesn’t seem like a lock of a top 11 pick for me.
I go Trent Richardson (or Spiller) and either go one of (in this order) AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones or Dez Bryant… or two of those WRs and snag two of guys like Wilson, L. Miller, Ball, Vereen (later, not in the 3rd or anything), etc.
Good question, tough to answer is all, and that’s because there isn’t a clear one.
Reply and let us know how it goes! Feel free to follow up to this, though.
The draft is projected to go AP doug charles spiller lynch foster (my pick), mccoy, 9, 10, (my pick). So I think I’ll go trent. Just worried about that 11 pick. Like you said, could grab a top wide out, but then would be forced to go rb in the 3rd since i dont have a 4th round.
Smitty sorry i answered his question hit reply by accident can u answer mine from above
dlama, you replied to someone else’s question. Be sure to start a new one, or reply to on ongoing comment you already have up. No big deal, it happens, just letting you know so we can keep the hierarchy clean.
As for your question, which is as old as time by now ;)…
You said: “I could go 1 Richardson 2. Wilson/ Miller/ Rodgers 3. Wilson Miller/ Cam 4. Dez 5. ?? Take best Wr on the board/ QB”
My rankings will tell you who I like more, and the .5 ppr vs 1.0 ppr won’t change anything in my book. All of those options are great. If forced to suggest which team I’d like best, and that would change with the wind because the players are so close in value (and some on my upside board, so I love a lot of them):
1. Richardson
2. Julio first… then Wilson or Miller (flip a coin, because it’s that close, they are 1 and 2 on the upside board)
3. Fitz or DThomas (if you went RB in the 2nd.. if you went Julio, then either Wilson or MIller)
4. Dez
Any of those variations would be awesome, and late RG3 grab, and late Jared Cook selection (with Pierce and Michael in the shadows) and you’re gonna do well.
Smitty, I’m in a bit of a dilemna. I just had a 10 team auction draft (inaugural season) on Friday night, so obviously everyone has a pretty strong team given there’s only 10. My team is:
QB – Drew Brees
WR – Julio Jones
WR – Dez Bryant
RB – Trent Richardson
RB – Bernard Pierce or Mark Ingram (Yea this is where I ***** myself over)
Flex – T.Y Hilton
TE – Jermichael Finley
K – Blair Walsh
D – Seahawks
Bench – Russell Wilson, Bernard Pierce/Mark Ingram, Josh Gordon, Golden Tate, Knowshon Moreno, Christine Michael.
Maybe you’ll disagree, but I’m thinking I’m in big trouble at RB2, so I’m wondering, should I trade Julio for Chris Johnson straight up?
The best WR’s available on waiver right now are Michael Floyd, Vincent Brown, Broyles, DHB, Blackmon, Denarius, Brian Hartline, Kendall Wright. I’m just torn on what to do…
My thoughts on CJ2k this year, much improved Oline, very easy schedule second 1/2 of the year, fresh legs over most because his workload has been less than most, and he’ll be a focal point this year
Anything can happen, and much depends on if you believe that CJ2K will be consistent, something he wasn’t last year.
No way I make that trade straight up. Julio gets drafted higher in my eyes, no way. Get more, but I start Ingram/Pierce for a few weeks and see how it shakes out. Also, although I think Ball will eventually start and thrive, Moreno could start week 1. Also, and this is a whole bunch of IF, but what if Michael or Pierce get in the line up and you roll the rest of the season going “if only i had Julio still!”. Go buy Ball on the cheap, using Gordon, Finley, Ingram.
I’d start Ingram or Pierce and wait. There are always good buy lows from slow starting players in Weeks 1-2-3… wait, or get Ball on the cheap and have that Moreno/Ball duo. Risky if Hillman does start, but that looks a tad less likely now. Pierce might surprise, too. With that line up you have, I start Pierce and smile, i don’t freak. No way. I’d draft that same team and work that waiver wire, and I wouldn’t trade a single starting piece you have, just the other stuff, Gordon, etc, etc.
Smitty, maybe I posted my question in the wrong spot, I’ve never asked a question here before, just signed up & LOVE IT so far! To follow up to my previous question, I could also trade Julio Jones & Mark Ingram for Reggie Bush & Mike Wallace. Thoughts? Either way I’m in a LOT of trouble for a few bye weeks
No way on that one. No way.
Stay put, start Pierce in Week 1, or Ingram, see how it goes. If anything, buy low opportunities will come, but working the waiver wire and getting more out of Pierce than you think is the answer. I don’t flinch with that roster. Trade Julio and you start taking away it’s ability to make opponents crap their pants on Sundays they face you. Let people make fun of your RB2. You can’t have a line up that strong without having a weak spot. Is it weak? Is Pierce a sneaky play? I say yes, for now.
Again, try to trade for Ball on the cheap (not using Pierce or Michael, as either starting would close the points race out at about Week 8).
Thanks a lot Smitty!! I’ll be on here quite often during the year, look forward to many more discussions!
Awesome!
Finished my keeper league draft today, lemme know what you think:
QB – Cam Newton
WR – Demaryius Thomas
WR – Kenny Britt
WR – Chris Givens
RB – Doug Martin
RB – Jamaal Charles
TE – Rob Housler
FLEX – Johnathan Dwyer
BN – Rob Gronkowski
BN – Bernard Pierce
BN – Josh Gordon
BN – Lance Moore
BN – Markus Wheaton
BN – Joique Bell
Unfortunately couldn’t land hilton but lots of DC names I know some of em will break out!
Fantastic. Great RBs and you still have a true WR1, and a QB that could be the top QB this year. Fantastic.
Nice Job Smitty! I picked up TRich at 1.06 at my draft, also picked up RG3 really late in the draft as my 2nd QB and Wilson well below his ADP…so I am taking your advice and hoping for the best:)
Nice work. Great job.
Hi Smitty,
Thanks for all the great analysis. I’m looking for some advice on how to possibly improve my team before the start of the season. It’s a 12 person .5 PPR league (non-keeper/no IDP). My team is…
QB – Romo
WRs – Julio Jones, V. Jackson
RBs – D. Martin, F. Gore
TE – J. Cook
Flex – E. Lacy (or C. Shorts)
Bench: C. Shorts, Mike Williams, C. Givens, B. Tate, K. Hunter, Carson Palmer
I know Lacy is pumped up right now due to the Harris injury, but I have my doubts about him, mostly with regard to injuries. I’ve been offered Vereen and Sudfeld for him. Should I take it? Is there another RB I should target in a trade that might be valued less than Lacy is right now?
His team is…
QB – Wilson
RBs – Charles, MJD
WRs – Garcon, Colston
TE – Graham
Flex – Sudfeld
Thanks Smitty!
Nice squad. I like Gore, and he might have one more year, but I’d surely shop him just to see if you can buy low on a Lamar Miller, who is up and down when it comes to his value. Givens is such an exciting prospect this year, I’d be tempted to trade Gore and VJax for one better RB, and then shove Givens into the line-up? Those are just thoughts, and it’s tough to say what RB you could target. The RB would have to be Forte or Foster like, given Gore is still very solid, and so is VJax.
Again, though, Gore for Miller might be doable right now. Nice job.
Thanks Smitty. Would you do the Lacy for Vereen & Sudfeld trade?
For this year, I almost like Lacy more, just do your best to handcuff him. As I’ve said before with Lacy, I do question his long-term value, and I give him 2-3 years max before I worry about him losing all of his huge upside. His foot worries me a ton, and his foot and injury history have him as a high-risk/high-reward player this year. I still take the chance on him at this value, even in dynasty just because of the impact he can have this year, but it’s close, and you see how much I love Vereen. It’s close. I bet I could go either direction, and would, if facing this exact situation in two different leagues. Meaning I’d go with one in one league and the other in the other.
OK, thanks. I also worry that he’s — per ESPN — facing the toughest SOS against the run this year.
P.S. I tried the Gore for Miller trade and it was a no go, but thanks for the idea!
No problem. Keep up the forward-thinking.