Below is an early 2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft in April. This mock draft is based on a standard PPR scoring format, it’s based on a redraft format.
Drafters included a mix of DraftCalc users, writers, and forum moderaters. This mock did not have any one person drafting from a specific draft slot; rather, it was a live chat with only one rule, which was that you couldn’t draft a player twice in a row. Thus, you will not see a draft order pattern, just a grip of knowledgeable fantasy football owners calling out name after name until four rounds were drafted.
2013 Mock Draft
Round One
1.01 Trent Richardson (Smitty)
1.02 Doug Martin (TBCF)
1.03 Adrian Peterson (Smitty)
1.04 Calvin Johnson (TD_Vulture)
1.05 Arian Foster (TBCF)
1.06 CJ Spiller (Mhops)
1.07 Ray Rice (TBCF)
1.08 AJ Green (TD_Vulture)
1.09 Jamaal Charles (whansen1202)
1.10 Julio Jones (Smitty)
1.11 Alfred Morris (TD_Vulture)
1.12 Marshawn Lynch (Mhops)
Smitty’s Take: I kicked this draft off with DraftCalc’s new No 1 overall player heading into 2013, Trent Richardson. Yep, as much as Adrian Peterson proved he is near invinsible, his huge workload last year is a bit worrisome, especially given it was his first year back from major knee surgery. Worrisome to the point where I won’t take AP No. 1 or No. 2 overall? No way, I think we all learned never to doubt AP ever, ever again; however, while I’d surely consider AP at the 1.01, and would absolutely take him at least at 1.02 in any draft, I just can’t help but move T-Rich up heading into the rest of the 2013 off-season. T-Rich is set-up to flat-out dominate in Cleveland in 2013! Norv Turner is directing that offensive attack this upcoming season, and that means Richardson could total over 1,400 rushing yards, if not more, and he has a strong shot at pulling in 400-500 receiving yards off 60+ receptions. He could also pull in 14-18 total scores. I have him pegged to lead the league in rushing scores in 2013. It actually wouldn’t be all that shocking if the runner totaled 2,000 total rushing/receiving yards. Take him at the 1.01 without hesitation in all 2013 fantasy football drafts (dynasty or redraft). Again, Peterson is a fine 1.01, so there is nothing wrong with keeping him at the top slot on your draft board, but I’m rolling with T-Rich in 2013… I love the value of Jamaal Charles at the 1.09, and he could fall into one of the last draft slots in that first-round in June-August drafts… I like Alfred Morris this upcoming season, but 1.11 is a bit too high for my taste. I would take him in the middle of the second-round in any draft, but I’ll let someone else snag him if it means that I’d have to make him my first-drafted player on draft day… there were not a lot of other surprises in this first-round!
Round Two
2.01 Dez Bryant (TBCF)
2.02 Aaron Rodgers (Smitty)[level-all]
2.03 LeSean McCoy (TheHiddenOne)
2.04 Rob Gronkowski (whansen1202)
2.05 Demaryius Thomas (TD_Vulture)
2.06 Brandon Marshall (TheHiddenOne)
2.07 Drew Brees (jknighton)
2.08 Matt Forte (Smitty)
2.09 Stevan Ridley (whansen1202)
2.10 Cam Newton (TD_Vulture)
2.11 Tom Brady (Mhops)
2.12 Andre Johnson (TheHiddenOne)
Smitty’s Take: Dez Bryant is an amazing athlete, and I think one would be hard-pressed to find someone higher on Dez last year than I was; but, 2.01 makes Dez a bit more risky than one would think. At 2.01, he HAS TO explode in 2013, and he can’t have a slow start. He can’t get hurt. He was a sleeper last year, and his slow start didn’t hold him back from being one of last year’s biggest breakouts. He can earn the 2.01, don’t get me wrong, but it’s hard not to admit that 2.01 leaves no room for errors or off-the-field trouble… Rob Gronkowski is worthy of a second-round pick, I can’t blame anyone who thinks that way, but I myself go get a TE late and try and land that next upcoming stud. Kyle Rudolph, Jared Cook; those are just a pair of cheaper on-the-rise type tight ends… Stevan Ridley at 2.09 is a bit high for my taste, especially because I have Shane Vereen pegged as one of next season’s biggest deep sleeper candidates.
Round Three
3.01 David Wilson (Smitty)
3.02 Jimmy Graham (Mhops)
3.03 Maurice Jones-Drew (TBCF)
3.04 DeMarco Murray (Smitty)
3.05 Darren McFadden (whansen1202)
3.06 Chris Johnson (TBCF)
3.07 Randall Cobb (LukeB5301)
3.08 Victor Cruz (TheHiddenOne)
3.09 Percy Harvin (TBCF)
3.10 Wes Welker (whasen1202)
3.11 Peyton Manning (Mhops)
3.12 Roddy White (TheHiddenOne)
Smitty’s Take: I love David Wilson as a third- or fourth-drafted player, and clearly grab him later than the 3.01 if ADPs, near your draft day, suggest he can be had later. I won’t beat a dead horse on Wilson, as I have a grip on his potential 2013 breakout right here. Read that for more on Wilson… it appears the third-round could be one of the riskiest rounds to draft players in heading into 2013. With players like Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray, Wes Welker, Percy Harvin< and Chris Johnson flying off the board in that third-round, you may want to consider safer options on draft day if you want to take a more conservative road to building your 2013 squad(s). Who is safe in the third-round above? I’d say Drew Brees, Peyton Manning; any elite passer is gold in the third when you consider the risky group that’s sitting in that 3.01-3.12 range. I’m not suggesting all of those players I listed above are going to bust in 2013, that’s not what I’m saying at all, but fantasy owners should eliminate risk whenever they can, and drafting safe players is smart when the talent waters get cloudy. I’ll take a risk with David Wilson, but might avoid a White or MJD, due to age, unless of course they fall another round or two (anyone can turn into a sleeper if they slip past a certain point where the upside strongly outweighs the risk). I do like McFadden this year, at least at his current fourth-round ADP.
Round Four
4.01 Lamar Miller (Smitty)
4.02 Larry Fitzgerald (Mhops)
4.04 Steven Jackson (LukeB5301)
4.05 Reggie Bush (Mhops)
4.06 Danny Amendola (whansen1202)
4.07 Vincent Jackson (TBCF)
4.08 Knile Davis (Smitty)
4.09 Hakeem Nicks (LukeB5301)
4.10 Darren Sproles (TBCF)
4.11 TY Hilton (Smitty)
4.12 Antonio Brown (Mhops)
Smitty’s Take: Lamar Miller could slip further than this, so know your ADPs when draft day arrives! Still, I love Miller this year, as he is on our 2013 Upside Board, and I’m not afraid to take him this high – if I have to. Again, I won’t if I can help it, but Miller can easily outperform a 4.01 draft slot, which is how you know that a player is still worth investing in even when their value is already on the rise… I love Larry Fitzgerald at the 4.02, and this mock draft even took place after Carson Palmer-to-Arizona news broke. Steal! Fitz could be a top 14 overall player by season’s end in 2013, which makes him a steal in even the third-round… reaches in this round include TY Hilton, only because he can often be grabbed later. It was even me that drafted him above at that spot! If you had to draft him this high come August, he can still outperform the draft slot, though… Antonio Brown is a huge bounce-back candidate of mine in 2013, and he is on our Upside Board; still, this could be a bit high to draft Brown – for now. That could change, so monitor ADPs!
[/level-all]
Awesomely informative, love the accompanying write-up!
(You mentioned Graham following round 2, did u mean to use Gronk there instead? Not an issue tho as your comment relates to TE’s in general at that spot anyway)
You are right. Good catch. Fixed.
I love Megatron as much as anybody, but taking him 4th is a bit too high for my taste. WR is much deeper than RB. RB’s get questionable/shaky shortly after the LeSean McCoy and Forte types. Just my two cents.
I agree it can be tough to build a strong RB crew going WR in the first.
Smitty,
Got a draft question…
Our league is going to do a 2 yr keeper. It needs to be someone that was draftd 6th rd or later. My decent choices are: Ridley, DWilson, Hernandez, and Harvin.
We start qb, 2rb, 2wr, rb/wr, te and its nonppr.
I’m not planning on keeping Hernandez, but the other three have some pros and cons. I cant figure out what the best strategy would be. Since we can only keep the guy for two yrs, what would be the best strategy/keeper?
I think I know who you’re gonna say…
Thanks!
BTW, how is your draft strategy article coming?
David Wilson for me! I think he has the best shot at being the highest ranked player a year from now, and I’m talking top 5-15 overall. The other players you have are solid, no doubt, but their ceilings aren’t as high as Wilson’s in my opinion.
As for the article, I hope to have it up soon. Not sure if it will be SUN or MON, or a day or two after that, but I’ll do my best to move it to the top of the list, or near the top of the list. Don’t worry, you will see it on the homepage/forums as soon as it’s up!
Thanks!
Looking forward to it…Check in here at least once a day.
Incredible site!
btw….I did share DC with someone as you requested …my wife…who’s not in any of my leagues
Thanks, GoPack.
Knile Davis in the fouth round? April’s fool?
Nope, that is real. Honestly, after the draft, once 1-2 backs land in starting situations, the end of the 4th-round for a couple of these rookies won’t even be realistic any longer, they will go higher than that. Starding rookie rushers enter third- and sometimes even second-round territory.
Smitty, who would you draft first if both are on the board; Dez Bryant or David Wilson?
Dez, he has a much higher ADP, by about one entire round. Wilson’s ADP is 3.02 ish, while Dez is 2.02-2.03 ish.
That said, I think Wilson will rival him for a top 12 overall spot come season’s end (points wise). But, you always use the ADP to your advantage so that Wilson, in this case, can explode from his draft slot. The last thing you want is to take a player like Wilson near Dez because you think he will breakout. Even if you end up right, your destroying the value taking him as high as a Dez. You should be able to own Wilson with a 3.01 this year, but yeah, it’s getting concerning he is getting snagged at 3.02 on occasion. I’m not liking how high he is climbing. Dez is not full of as much upside this year, though, as he is getting taken near 1.12-2.03, and that means he HAS to be do what he did last year to earn that slot. Can he? Sure, I love the guy, but I’m just cautioning fantasy owners into thinking he isn’t full of risk now that he is a top 12-15 overall pick. The risk is now there, and I wouldn’t overvalue him this year.
As a FF enthusiast I am truly enjoying your website thus far.. Your mock draft and rankings appear to based off of PPR formats. When viewing your rankings from a non PPR format, is it fair to say that receivers can be moved down the list some? PPR formats tend to make receivers closer in value to RB’s.
Yes, you are correct. PPR formats do pull those receivers up a bit. Be sure to look at our Full-Season non-PPR projections here. They automatically sort by PPR, so you have to click on the non-PPR column to sort by non-PPR. Those are a staff average, whereas the actual site rankings are done by just me (hence why there is a touch of difference between the full-season projections and rankings features.
Thanks for the compliments as well! Glad you found DraftCalc!
Smitty- great site. I was wondering why you were not around at FFX and somehow found you here. FFX is still a great site, but looking forward to the DraftCalc content for 2013. Keep up the good work!
I ventured off in 2012 to create DraftCalc. I am still friendly with the FFX guys, they are a great group, but I’m only at DraftCalc now.
Welcome, my friend. Very glad to see you here!