Ready for some 2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft analysis? Below are the results to a 2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft that took place inside our site’s live Chat Feature (on the homepage). Drafters consisted of myself and a crew of DraftCalc members. This was based off of a redraft league and was assumed to be a non-ppr draft. I have provided commentary below each round. Enjoy.
Round One
1.01 – Adrian Peterson
1.02 – Doug Martin
1.03 – Trent Richardson
1.04 – Calvin Johnson
1.05 – Jamaal Charles
1.06 – CJ Spiller
1.07 – AJ Green
1.08 – Ray Rice
1.09 – Arian Foster
1.10 – LeSean McCoy
1.11 – Julio Jones
1.12 – Dez Bryant
Smitty’s Take
AP is a beast, and while you may or may not have one or two other players ranked ahead of him as we surge into the months of July and August, AP at least commands top-spot consideration. Doug Martin fans are starting to push his redraft ADP into the top three overall, which I one-hundred percent agree with… so you won’t hear me call anyone nuts for taking Martin with the 1.02. If you ask me, there are actually three players worthy of the 1.01 this year…[level-all] Yes, Peterson and Martin are the first two; Trent Richardson, the 1.03 above, is the third. Call it bold, call it whatever you want, but I actually have Richardson as my top-ranked runner heading into 2013 and beyond. Do I take him with the 1.01? Not necessarily… if you share my view on T-Rich, who is now installed in a Norv Turner driven offense, certainly attempt to trade down to the 1.03, or lower… his ADP is cemented well outside of the 1.01-1.03, and it’s slowly shifting into the 1.07-1.10 direction. Steal! I have an entire write-up dedicated to Trent Richardson here, so check that out if you haven’t already seen it!
Honestly, there were not a whole lot of surprises in the first-round of this mock draft. While I see a lot of upside in the falling ADPs of both Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy, who both went 1.09 and 1.10 above, I think there is good reason to doubt the veteran rushers entering 2013. While I’m not expecting either back to absolutely bust, I worry enough about injury that 1.09-1.12 seems about right to me when it comes to drafting either running back. So, I like the 1.09 and 1.10 for these guys, however, if you invest in either Foster or McCoy in 2013, just be certain to grab the back-up rushers (Bryce Brown and Ben Tate). Neither runner would consistently crank out first-round fantasy stats if forced to start, but both could easily become instant fantasy RB2s if elevated to starter status.
Round Two
2.01 Jimmy Graham
2.02 Aaron Rodgers
2.03 Marshawn Lynch
2.04 Brandon Marshall
2.05 Cam Newton
2.06 Larry Fitzgerald
2.07 Alfred Morris
2.08 Steven Jackson
2.09 Andre Johnson
2.10 Matt Forte
2.11 Reggie Bush
2.12 Demaryius Thomas
Smitty’s Take
I’m never a fan of taking a tight end in the second-round, let alone early second-round, but like with so many picks, it’s not a bad move at all if the draft style plays to your draft strengths. So, would I take Jimmy Graham at 2.01? No. Can someone build a championship contending team grabbing the tight end at 2.01? Absolutely. I myself go after the next Jimmy Graham, like a Jared Cook or Dennis Pitta. Before you shake your head at the idea of finding a hidden gem like Graham ever again, keep in mind that we called Graham’s rise to the elite!
Call drafting Aaron Rodgers in the second-round way too early and I’ll just repeat, with slight variation, what I just said about Jimmy Graham. Can you win drafting a quarterback in the middle rounds of your draft? Sure. Can you win drafting a stud QB in the second-round? Yes. “This fantasy quarterback is just too deep to grab a passer early in 2013″… I feel like I hear that almost every other day… or, “Drafting a QB early is a mistake”… Repeating what I’ve said above, one can win all different ways, and I am all for grabbing an Aaron Rodgers in the second-round. I won’t make such a move in every league, and I tend to grab him a touch later than 2.02, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with grabbing a player at the top of the second-round when that player could outscore every single player in fantasy football come season’s end. My favorite-drafted team so far this off-season is one where I grabbed Rodgers at 3.01…. if you can land him later, certainly try, though, but there is nothing wrong with A-Rod as your second-drafted player… and as your third-drafted player, well, now your just showing off!
Everything I just said about Aaron Rodgers can be applied to Cam Newton!!
I love seeing Larry Fitzgerald in the third-round, a round you may still see Fitz fall to come August. He has a touch more risk here in the second-round (above), but he is absolute steal material anywhere near the third-round!
Marshawn Lynch is rock-solid at 2.03, and the same can definitely be said about Andre Johnson at 2.09, Alfred Morris at 2.07 and Brandon Marshall at 2.04.
Matt Forte seems just about right at 2.10, as the risk and upside seem well balanced.
While Reggie Bush, Steven Jackson and Demaryius Thomas could all earn their second-round respect up above, there are a handful of players I’d rather grab when push comes to shove in that second-round, players I will touch on below.
Round Three
3.01 Lamar Miller
3.02 Darren Sproles
3.03 David Wilson
3.04 Drew Brees
3.05 Randall Cobb
3.06 Montee Ball
3.07 Percy Harvin
3.08 Victor Cruz
3.09 Roddy White
3.10 Demarco Murray
3.11 Chris Johnson
3.12 Tom Brady
Smitty’s Take
Just like Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton are still awesome values in the second-round in all upcoming 2013 fantasy football drafts, despite so many being against that thinking, you can bet I love the values of Drew Brees and Tom Brady at 3.04 and 3.12. Knowing these two are falling to the third might be one of the only reasons I pass on either Cam or Rodgers near the bottom of the second. In the end, I’ll take one of Brees/Brady in the third-round, or one of Rodgers/Cam in the second over the “wait on a passer later because the QB position is too deep” approach.
My two biggest breakout runners, as of this moment, are David Wilson and Lamar Miller, and I love their third-round ADPs right now! Steals! Both of these guys have top 5-10RB upside heading into this upcoming fantasy football season, and whenever you can land a runner with that kind of upside in the third-round, you have a recipe for a championship win! You can read a ton more right here on why I love both of these running backs entering 2013, but the bottom line is this… these guys can earn their third-round draft value even on disappointing fantasy seasons (assuming they are healthy). Everything I just said about Wilson and Miller, apply it to Montee Ball (3.06)!
Darren Sproles at 3.02 seems a touch high, but it’s arguable, no doubt!
Chris Johnson is low-risk/high-reward at 3.11, so don’t hesitate to invest at such value in your upcoming drafts. He is no second-round pick anymore, though. He can get back to that, but no one should invest at that price tag!
Despite their ability to earn these values come season’s end, I have my doubts about Harvin at 3.07, DeMarco Murray at 3.10 and Roddy White at 3.09… why do I doubt these guys? Well, Murray and Harvin due to a mixture of injury concerns and just gut instinct, and avoiding Roddy is simply an attempt not to catch a falling knife. Could I be wrong on all three? Sure, and I’m not necessarily calling them absolute busts… I like Harvin, just not at 3.07, which means that I probably won’t own him this year, as most will take him by 4.01.
Round Four
4.01 LeVeon Bell
4.02 Stevan Ridley
4.03 Wes Welker
4.04 Peyton Manning
4.05 Rob Gronkowski
4.06 Darren McFadden
4.07 Vincent Jackson
4.08 Frank Gore
4.09 Danny Amendola
4.10 Chris Ivory
4.11 Maurice Jones-Drew
4.12 Hakeem Nicks
Smitty’s Take
Stevan Ridley is a player I’m avoiding in all leagues, and that’s because he catches no passes and Shane Vereen is just itching to breakout. Granted this is a non-ppr mock, but Vereen’s versatility could likely lead him to the starting gig, and he is the only New England back I want to own in 2013.
I love the values of LeVeon Bell at 4.01, Peyton Manning at 4.04, Rob Gronkowski at 4.05 (expect his ADP to climb should he firmly be projected to start Week 1 or 2) and Darren McFadden at 4.06.
Don’t be shocked if Chris Ivory busts, or explodes, in 2013. His ability to do either is what has him in a rather safe ADP territory, and the same can be said about Hakeem Nicks (4.12), another bust candidate that also has a high fantasy ceiling.
Danny Amendola could boom or bust at 4.09, so take him no earlier than this.
Not Drafted
A grip of players went undrafted in this quick-hit four-round mock draft. Players like Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck clearly demand a look in that fourth-round, but this mock should give all of you a taste of what you could see in your fast-approaching 2013 redraft non-ppr drafts!
Please feel free to comment below!
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WHY IS CHRIS JOHNSON SO LOW??? 4TH ROUND!SERIOUSLY . dude runs for 1200 and 6 tds and thats a down year for him . but matt forte is selected ahead of him reggie bush and rookies..NO RESPECT go look at that… cj2k still has it
fun fact of the day matt forte has never scored double digit tds..2009 4.. 2010 6 2011 3 2012 5.. and this dude keeps getting hurt.. im sick of seeing matt forte getting drafted so early ya he has value in ppr but i still think he should be late 3rd -4th round
Why are sick of it? If you doubt him, you should love seeing him so high! He is high risk, but has a high ceiling. All solid observations, but again, both are great for you if you doubt them…
It’s a mock, buddy! I can’t control where everyone drafts players, but I noted his great value there. I agree, he is a steal this year, but you will see him fall this late often.
Oh yea I love the value with cj late.. I hope he keeps falling.. would u take cj in the 3rd smityy..I know it depends what players are left …..but I don’t think cj will be around after 3rd
I guess I would, sure, but as you said, depends on who is left. I imagine later in the third-round vs early third-round, but I can still see value in the third, as he has top 5-10RB potential. He does, I agree. Lots of risk, but it’s minimized nicely in the late third- to fourth-round.
I was just steaming from a fantasy football argument about cj and matt forte lol.and I was just kinda ranting…I know u have no control and its a mock…
To each his own….
I think we all go into drafts with certain guys that won’t be on our team. Just as Ridley will be on none of Smitty’s teams, Chris will be on none of mine.
People may look at Ridley and think the same thing that you are saying about Johnson. If you believe and get a him at a good value, then by all means do it. For me, a guy that fails to produce 100 total yds or a td in half his games, for two yrs straight, I want no part of.
Granted in ppr, or as a flex, he is a bit more attractive. For me, at his current ADP, I will be putting Rodgers, Brees, Julio, or Marshall on my team first.
…. but like I said…to each his own. That’s what makes it fake football
Good take, GoPack. Sometimes end of season numbers don’t mean everything, as you could get knocked out of the playoffs with consistent inconsistency. I think fourth-round is very low risk, though. But hey, there still great players in the fourth, so passing is understandable. Taking him is understandable, but passing him is just as understandable.
Smitty, this being a non ppr, I’m really hoping that your rankings ALSO INCLUDE A NON PPR. Currently you only have ppr. Thanks and keep up the good work!
The “year round rankings” will only be PPR, but our Full-Season Projections can be sorted by PPR or non-PPR. Also, while they won’t be year round, we will release non-PPR rankings in the form of an article release (meaning, it won’t be updated after posting), but I’ll do that a couple times in August, one at the start, one during the middle. So, yes, we will have non-PPR rankings for drafting purposes.
Sweet, thank you. One quick question. if Dez Bryant and Jimmy Graham are on the board, who would you take first? Thanks again! Can’t wait for football!!!
Well, redraft or dynasty, you will see Dez in the 12-15 range on my rankings and Graham in the 20-27 range. I love Graham, he was one of my bold predictions the year broke out, but I’m just a believer in taking a TE outside of the first two rounds. It’s what I did when I found Graham, and the Pitta and Cook types are the ones I target this year to be those breakout TEs.
Thanks a bunch for your insight!
You know it!
Smitty,
I see you took Trent Richardson at #3. Assuming Doug Martin was still on the board, do you still make that same move? I’m curious to know who you give the edge to?
Thanks!
I’ll be honest, it’s close, and because Martin is the less risky of the two, if you even call TRich a risk at all, I’d take one in one league and one in the other if I had the same situations in two different leagues. If I only had one league, I’d go TRich, but I roll the dice more than most. So safe money is on Martin, the home run is TRich.
Smitty,
I know your answer is going to be “I like both options”
But please give me the best option.
Who do you take in round 2 of the draft assuming you took Trent Richardson in the first round and that both these guys are available. I’m guessing in my non-PPR redraft yahoo league, this is what I will be faced with:
Aaron Rogers or Julio Jones?
Thanks!
Julio Jones. As you said I’d say, you can’t go wrong with either, but I like me some RG3 later, or Rodgers, Brees, or Brady, in that third-round vs the second. I take Rodgers at the bottom of the second, but not when Julio is still there, no way.
Trent Richardson
Julio Jones
Lamar Miller
RG3 in the 4th or 5th, watch out
Smitty,
You have Tom Brady ranked as a top #5 QB this season. As a Bostonian, I am pleased to see that. However, as a fantasy football coach I’m hesitant taking Brady before a lot of the guys you have listed. Can you please explain or defend your decision to rank Brady so high, given the receiver problem in New England?
Thanks!
I think the better question would be can you defend bumping him out of the top 5? That’s where he has been for quite a while, Gronk, Amendola (probably better than Welker given age/situation)… Vereen is one of the very best receiving backs in the league, which is to be proven, but that’s what I see.. Brady has as good of pass catchers as last year with Vereen thrusting into the space left by Hernandez leaving, Amendola replaces Welker no problem, and Brady is capable of making Kenbrell Thompkins or Aaorn Dobson into a sleeper fantasy WR3/4… Your stance is fine, time will tell and anything can happen, but I’d say most would ask you to argue your side and say that the Brady side is the defendant here.
great if you are a PATs fan, though!