I was recently invited to participate in a 2013 Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft, which was hosted by both Rotowire and Mock Draft Central. I was handed the 1.02 draft slot (redraft/PPR), and I didn’t hesitate to snag Trent Richardson with that selection. Why did I draft Richardson No. 2 overall? Below you will find the answer to that question, along with some more detailed draft analysis. You will also find the entire draft results.

Before we begin breaking down the entire draft, here is the roster that we drafted:

Our Team

QB: Cam Newton
RB1: Trent Richardson
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Josh Gordon
WR3: Kenny Britt
Flex: Le’Veon Bell
TE: Jared Cook
DST: Ravens
Bench: TY Hilton, Fred Davis, Bernard Pierce, Sam Bradford, DeAndre Hopkins

I have to say…[level-all] I’d take that team into battle in any league; I only wish this was a real league and not just a mock draft!

Now, let’s take a look at the entire draft results; keep in mind that the line-up requirements are 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1Flex, 1TE, 1DST, 1K.

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Rounds 1-4 Analysis

Trent Richardson @ 1.02

If you don’t frequent our forums often, you might be surprised to learn that Trent Richardson is my No. 1 overall-ranked fantasy football player heading into 2013. Now, is there anything wrong with drafting Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin or Arian Foster No. 1 overall in upcoming 2013 drafts? No, absolutely not, but my top dog in 2013 is Richardson, and I have no issue reaching 2-4 slots for Richardson either, even if he typically does not go second overall. This was a mock draft (with no trading), but to be honest, I wouldn’t have traded down in this draft even if I could have… I wouldn’t have wanted to risk someone else grabbing the runner. T-Rich could have 15+ touchdowns in 2013. Norv Turner may have had his ups and downs as a head coach, and his running back crews over the years haven’t all thrived without fail, but it’s safe to say that if you hand Norv Turner a runner like Richardson, who in my opinion is as elite as they come, you’re going to see that runner crank out top 5RB numbers. Richardson is a super star, and that entire Cleveland offense will be reliant on him successfully running the football. And, with Josh Gordon set to breakout in 2013, the field will be stretched plenty, allowing Richardson to locate all kinds of rushing lanes. I envision Richardson totaling 1,400+ rushing yards, and as I said 15+ scores; I wouldn’t be at all shocked if the runner also pulled in 400-500 receiving yards, along with 45-50 receptions. What is standing in Richardson’s way? I say nothing, but of course injury; however, I’m not too concerned about injury when it comes to T-Rich this upcoming season! Some might be, but I am not… So, in conclusion, get ready for The Trent Richardson show!

Dez Bryant @ 2.11

This time last year, Dez Bryant had an ADP around the 4th- to 5th-round. He held that kind of value entering most all August drafts as well. So, given how accurate we were in predicting his breakout party, I feel I can say this without much backlash… Dez Bryant has some potential to disappoint this upcoming season… Am I predicting him to bust? No, not at all… hell, I just drafted the guy, so clearly I still love his upside. However, what I’m suggesting is that if you start taking Dez at 1.10-2.02, something I’m starting to see in recent mock drafts, well, you’re putting yourself in a situation where Dez HAS TO be a top 2-3 receiver in 2013… and he can be, obviously… but, it just makes it tough to get a return on your investment if the player, in this case Dez, hits any roadblocks, or encounters any injuries. With his finger issue, the injury risk that he already kind of comes with, all I am saying is to ensure that you don’t reach too high for Dez in 2013. Where is a great place to snag him? Well, I think 2.11 is a fantastic spot to find him undrafted, so clearly I couldn’t be more pleased landing him at 2.11. Dez, if healthy in 2013, should pull in 90-100 balls for 1,300-1,400 yards and 10-12TDs. Could he drop 1,400 and 15? Sure, but that’s why he is great value at 2.11 vs. 1.11. He needs to hit those figures as your first-round grab, he doesn’t as your second!

Cam Newton @ 3.02

You know what’s crazy? I actually got some chuckles inside the live draft chat with this pick. I get that some people don’t like grabbing a quarterback early… Hey, there are all kinds of ways to draft a championship caliber fantasy roster. There are no wrong answers, and everyone has different styles. That said, I find it shocking that so many think that Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton in the 2.08-3.05 range is a roster-building mistake. Just because a quarterback like Russell Wilson or Matt Ryan can be had 2-3 rounds later, that doesn’t make drafting Cam or Rodgers in the 2nd- or 3rd-round a mistake… Here, let’s break it down, and let’s assume that you take a QB in the 3rd-round in one example, and in the 5th- or 6th-round in another… let’s see how ridiculous this anti-QB thinking is:

Example 1: Let’s say you grab Aaron Rodgers (or Cam Newton), like I did in the above draft, at 3.02… Now you take a Montee Ball, Le’Veon Bell, Lamar Miller, Hakeem Nicks or Josh Gordon with that 5th-round pick, where most are drafting quarterbacks… so, now you have Newton and Ball, or Newton and Nicks vs. what? Let’s take a look…

Example 2: If you pass on a quarterback at 3.02, and grab a player like Darren McFadden, Randall Cobb, Steven Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald, then you can grab a Russell Wilson in the 4th- or 5th-round.

Comparison: So, you tell me! Is Cam Newton/Hakeem Nicks (or Montee Ball) worse than Larry Fitzgerald (or Darren McFadden)? I’m not suggesting that the second approach is bad, it all comes down to personal preference, as well as drafting to one’s strengths. What I am suggesting is wrong, though, is calling the first strategy wrong. It’s not, clearly you can dominate grabbing a quarter back in the 2nd- or 3rd-round, and in our case, we couldn’t be happier with Cam Newton at 3.02 and Lamar Miller at 4.11. In fact, that’s probably the best example to breakdown… so, look at who was available at 3.02 (where we took Newton)… even including running backs taken ahead of 3.02, the comparison between the two above strategies would be: Cam Newton/Lamar Miller vs. Chris Johnson (or Stevan Ridley)/Russell Wilson… Let doubters doubt, and let the chucklers chuckle – Don’t hesitate making Newton or Rodgers your late 2nd- or early 3rd-round pick in any format/draft in 2013!

Lamar Miller @ 4.11

Do I ever love this pick! Drafting Lamar Miller in the 4th-round of any draft is one of my favorite moves so far this off-season. Is there risk with Miller if you were to take him as your second- or third-drafted player? Sure, he is a “bold prediction” for a reason, as seen on our 2013 Upside Board; however, at 4th-round value, there is very, very little risk, especially if you can secure Mike Gillislee. The combo is gold as your RB2/fourth-drafted player! Miller could pull in 40-50 receptions in 2013, and I wouldn’t rule out 1,200+ rushing yards and 8-10 scores. You want this year’s Arian Foster (a 4th-round talent back in 2010, one that we predicted to be a top 5-10RB)? Well, in my book, Miller is on the short list for that spot! Again, look for more on Miller’s potential 2013 breakout campaign right here.

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