You want bold? You want a recipe for winning fantasy football championships, a strategy that I use each and every fantasy football season? Well, be prepared to work hard and be prepared to send off dozens and dozens of offers. Be prepared to be patient. And, most importantly, be prepared to be called a bit crazy! If you followed DraftCalc’s advice last year, you were likely called crazy for investing in Dez Bryant, Russell Wilson and CJ Spiller, right? How is that working out for those calling DC Nation folks crazy?
Ok, let’s get to it!
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What We Plan To Do!
- Trade (2) middle-round picks for (1) early-round pick
- Again trade (2) middle-round picks for (1) early-round pick
- Ultimately end up with (6) picks in the first four rounds
- Lose a bit of depth to bolster the starting line-up
That’s what we are going to do, but don’t stop reading here, learn why this is such a smart approach and why those calling it risky, or too bold, aren’t looking at the entire picture.
Starting Point: Draft Order Out Of The Hat
So, let’s just use the 1.06 draft slot to keep this simple. Clearly we’re looking at a typical snake-style draft, and the first thing we are going to do is attempt to acquire another 3rd-round pick.
- Step 1: Send this offer out: Your 5th- and 7th-round picks FOR a 3rd-round pick.
- Step 2: Send it out again to different owners. In fact, you should be sending this out to any owner with a 3.01 through roughly 3.07.
Note: You are going to get rejections, as many owners simply don’t like to trade draft picks. So, if you offer just 1-2 trades, you’re not likely to get any bites, but if you, as I call it, “offer in waves”, you’re much more likely to find that one other owner that loves the conservative “pick stockpiling” approach. You may even get responses where some owners say “No way!” and then you get that one owner that loves it, that’s the reason you’re sending out grips of offers!
Aftermath Of Trade One
So, you have landed your first 2-for-1 trade, and you now have (1) first-rounder, (1) second-rounder and (2) third-rounders, and you still have your (1) fourth-rounder! Our next victim? Now it’s time to deal the next two picks after your 4th-rounder. You will want to keep your 4th-rounder!
- Step 3: Send this offer out: Your 6th- and 8th-round picks FOR a 4th-round pick.
- Step 4: Send it out again to different owners. Like above, you should be sending this out to any owner with a 4.01 through roughly 4.07.
Note: You are again going to get several rejections, if not rejections from everyone. In cases where everyone rejects your 2-for-1 offer, you can always package in an 11th- or 12th pick (or slightly higher) just to push that one owner that may have almost accepted your previous offer. The problem is, you won’t always know which owner was on the fence, so just send out that amended offer to all (again!). Remember, all it takes is one “accept”!
Aftermath Of Trade Two; Your New-Look Draft Order!
Look at what you’ve done with a path most would consider destructive…. destructive how? Take a look… you now have (1) first-rounder, (1) second-rounder and (2) third-rounders, and now (2) fourth-rounders!
You know what most people think at a glance, or what they typically say about such a strategy? They usually say something like “After the 4th-round, you now have to wait four rounds before you pick again!” Do you? No, your 5th- and 6th-rounders are just now inside the 3rd- and 4th-rounds, so all that moving up merely cost you your 7th- and 8th-round picks… so while you physically do sit out four rounds, you picked early and really only lose two rounds.
Just look at the image to your left!
So, are those 7th- and 8th-round players good? Yeah, worst-case you’re looking at Tony Romo types, or Cecil Shorts types, and best-case you’re missing out on a Josh Gordon, Greg Jennings, TY Hilton, Miles Austin, etc… all are good players, I’m not suggesting otherwise, but below you will see the kind of team you can build by trading away just two rounds of 7th- to 8th-round depth:
Your Team Could Be (In Redraft)?
The above trading could land you a redraft squad like:
Trent Richardson (Rd-1), Julio Jones (Rd-2), Lamar Miller (Rd-3), David Wilson (Rd-3), Rob Gronkowski (Rd-4), Cam Newton or Tom Brady (Rd-4)
Your Team Could Be (In Dynasty)?
The above trading could land you a dynasty squad like:
AJ Green (Rd-1), Julio Jones (Rd-2), Lamar Miller (Rd-3), Montee Ball (Rd-3), Cam Newton (Rd-4), DeAndre Hopkins (Rd-4)
Can This Trading Be Done Other Ways?
Absolutely! In fact, I’ve landed even bigger names on one squad! In one of my fresh start-up dynasty leagues, I traded away my 5th- and 6th-round picks for a 2nd-round pick, and then I landed another additional 2nd-rounder using my 4th- and 7th-round picks. That left me (1) first-rounder, (3) second-rounders and (1) third-round pick, meaning I only lost my 6th- and 7th-round picks. And, with those selections, I was able to roster this squad:
Trent Richardson (Rd-1), Julio Jones (Rd-2), Dez Bryant (Rd-2), Aaron Rodgers (Rd-2), Lamar Miller (Rd-3)… and no, I didn’t wait four rounds between my 3rd- and 8th-round picks, as I drafted my 4th-and 5th-rounders inside the 2nd-round!
Tell me you couldn’t go into battle with any of those squads!
The Risks
Clearly you will be losing some depth with this moving up style approach, but something has to give when you move your picks up so far. How do you minimize the risk? Land your sleepers, and stockpile breakout types! Last year I drafted WR/WR/WR in one league and was almost laughed out of the draft. I won the championship in that league, and it’s because I picked up Alfred Morris and Lamar Miller, and I drafted CJ Spiller late. Who were my receivers? Dez Bryant, AJ Green and Julio Jones. Not so laugh-worthy now, is it? The same thinking can be applied here… if you stockpile the Bernard Pierce, Shane Vereen (assuming he even falls now) types, you’re going to land that player that takes your team to that “untouchable” level!
Now go build some championship teams!
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Sounds very cool. But, I have never been in a draft where guys trade their picks. Am I in weird leagues or something? I’ve seen guys do player trades right after the draft but not actually trade picks. Plus, I don’t see much benefit or motivation for the other guy to do these trades. I know I would never do one of these trades. Maybe I’m missing something.
I do it every single year, in more than a handful of my leagues. And, as I state above, you have to offer like 8 trades per scenario because you are right, most will not accept. Have you ever offered 8 identical trades (on your end) asking for a specific round from those 8? If the answer is no, then you will not have tried the above process, because that’s half the battle!
To your point, though, and the reason I say I do this in a grip of my leagues and not all, not every league trades, or allows for trading draft picks, or doesn’t have a friendly setup for it, etc.
Check out this draft here (my roster: Brees, T-Rich, Miller, AJ Green, Dez, Hopkins, Britt, Pierce)
…and this draft here (my roster: A.Rodgers, TRich, Lamar Miller, AJ Green, Britt, Hopkins, Pierce)
Both drafts were this year, both involved some solid trade-ups, the first is a keeper, the second is a pure dynasty.
These are “expert” leagues, so I assure you this can be pulled off in some of your leagues.
IN my keeper/contract/autcion style draft, I plan to basically to the same thing this year, in buying Calvin, AJG, Ray Rice and Lamar Miller as they will all be available (keeping Dez, Jamal Charles and David Wilson at reasonable salaries). Basically putting all my available money into the first 4 players and gettting the rest of the team filled with sleeper value type buys.
Similar to trading up, and I’ve never done this before in auction, always waited and bought 7-10 mid level guys and drafted for depth…
You are right, Hawk12, you can almost implement this thinking in an auction. Great point.
I like this. But I am about to draft for a leave with 12 teams and the starting reqs are expanded. 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 te, 3 flex… Would you still do this strategy then? I feel like I need the depth
Well the bigger the starting line up, the harder it becomes to trade depth. That said, tossing in the 2QBs, I almost say this strategy, but trading up to get two firsts, makes more sense. And, that’s if you’re willing to take a risk and find sleepers.
So Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees… starting out with that makes a ton of sense, sure. Trading into the 3rd or 4th, not as much maybe? Good question, tough to answer.
with 2 QBs you are already in a different arena IMO, add in the 3 FLX possitions and depth does become a major concern.
I would still try to move up, as the very top scorers in any possition will outscore the depth. But I’d be moving a 5th and 12th round pick as those deeper picks have more value in a deeper league… At least try it, and moving into the 3rd would really only cost you a 12th rounder in overall picks. Love the strategy, but can’t see your deep league falling under any kind of regular draft strategy.
If that is a dynasty, I’d take several solid current players early, then go for nearly all rookies and 2nd year players in mids rounds knowing they are not near the peak of their game – basically putting yourself into a very likely higher draft slot next year (tank one on youth to build a very deep and VERY young team building to dominate in 2/3 years – is what I’m trying to say)
Would this apply to keeper / dynasty leagues too Smitty?
Of course! Half of everything above is dynasty-related. Absolutely.
Just bought a subscription but it won’t let me access content, how long before it will let me?
I emailed ya, it should be all set!
I’d love to be able to trade draft picks, but can’t find anyway of doing it on yahoo. Is this basically a gentlemen’s agreement or is there a system in some leagues that let you offer draft pick trades?
Check with your commish. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen trading available on Yahoo either, I mean with draft picks that is.
Posted this in an older article but repeating it here in the latest article:
Love the site!! I am a long time fantasy player that NEVER pays for fantasy sites. Until now! Love the advice love the writing love the BOLDness!!
See u around Smitty!
Thanks, buddy. Glad to have ya be a part of DC Nation!
Hi, could you give me your opinion about who should i choose as keepers? Im in between Peterson, Chris Johnson, Demarco Murray and Russell Wilson, obviously I will choose peterson and johnson, but i am confused between Murray and Wilson..
If you start 3RBs, Murray is an option, but honestly I’d try and trade him, or Wilson and move up some picks? I would probably keep Murray only because I think you can draft Wilson back, or a similar upside QB like Stafford, or my undervalued favorite RG3. I would shop both Murray and Wilson, though, I’d rather move up, or trade for an undervalued player like Miller even if you have to trade Wilson or Murray and a move down? Only move down for a big name player, though. Typically I never move down.
@Smitty. Thanks for the advice, I did some mock drafts using draft wizard setting the most obvious keepers for every team in the league and when I kept murray I could always get RG3, Kaepernick and Wilson on round 8 or Brady, Manning, Ryan on rounds 5-6.. What do you think? Maybe the software isnt that accurate.. but still I get a good feeling about the strategy
On the 3rd round(1st with no keepers) I get AJ Green, since i am going first, then witten and Steve Smith o David Wilson or Manning, Ryan. What do you think? Thanks
I love AJG, D. Wilson and RG3/Manning. I almost don’t even want to hear any other names now, those three standout so much given the players around each. It’s tough to predict how your league will draft and if its realistic, don’t wait on RG3, take him early enough, soon after your D Wilson grab. He is so underrated. If you won’t be keeping either, Manning could be the better one year move.
So you think I should go in that order? Aj Green, Then go for D.wilson and Manning/RG3? What do you about taking Witten and another Wr and then go for QB and RB?
Thanks!
Smitty,
Just did another mock draft on Draftwizard and ended with this team:
round1 Peterson (keeper)
round2 Chris johnson(keeper)
round3 Demarco Murray(keeper)
round4 Aj Green
round5 Jason Witten
round6 Antonio Brown
round7 Leveon Bell
round8 RG3
round9 Kenny Britt
round10 Colin Kaepernick
round11 Josh Gordon
round12 Kendall Wright
round13 Johnathan Franklin
round14 Deandre Hopkins
round15 Broncos
round16 Gostkowski
round17 Zach Miller (Sidney Rice, Harvin not 100%)
Hi,
I’m in a 5 keeper PPR league (my keepers – Ray Rice, DMC, Dez and Jordy – one short because of trades).
I hold pick 3, 7, 8 and 13. The owner that holds pick 1 and 2 plans on going Tavon Austin / Gio Bernard.
I should be able to get Lamar Miller at 3, RG3 at 7 and Deandre Hopkins at 8.
Probably looking at one of Josh Gordon / Torrey Smith / Shane Vereen / Tony G / maybe Chris Ivory or Ryan Matthews being there at 13.
I’ve been offered pick 4 for pick 7 and 13.
Do I accept the trade and take Ball at 4?
If yes, do I take RG3 at 8 (should be available) and forgo Hopkins or do I take Hopkins and hope for either Romo or Eli at pick 22?
With your RBs, I take Miller and be plenty happy with that crew, don’t trade around all kinds of picks to acquire every upside guy we’re talking up. I say that because I myself have to continue to check my thinking, as I often think the same thing… “I have to have everyone on one team.” Just draft Ball in another league, or enjoy one high risk/high reward type in Miller. Great squad. And, I go RG3 for sure, I think he is so undervalued in dynasty formats, it’s funny. RG3, Rice, Miller, Dez, Hopkins, Vereen or Gordon… or Ivory, wow. Nice work. Reach for Bernard Pierce, you need him to lock down that top 5RB production that the duo grants you. RG3 for sure!
Expert League owners take risks and trade often. Unfortunately I’m not getting any bites. Love the concept, though.
THE Bubster
Yeah, not every group of people love to trade, that’s what makes playing in multiple leagues so rewarding!
Smitty,
Not really related to the article, but I was wondering if you are going to create a standard non-PPR redraft ranking?
Thanks,
eggman
Yep. Non-PPR won’t be an ways updated page, it will be a dated article like a y other article with no updates. I’ll write two if these in August. I’ll work on this for, or on, Aug 1.
@ djgana The Wizard is a bit off with AJ Green, no way he lasts that far! Great mock, though! Keep it up!
He doesnt last that far, one team has to let it go (keeping calvin johnson, trich, and mccoy) since i am the first drafting I get to draft A.J
@smitty, please read again the posts and give me your opinio about the 5th to 8th rounds, thanks!
Sorry, I see so many posts/questions, I forget what you’re working with at the start of the draft. I remember now. I 100% go David Wilson then RG3 or Manning (depending on if RG3 will have keeper value to you, then I like RG3 more. That’s a great start. Witten, nah… Steal Cook away from other owners and hope he is the next Graham… he could be!
ok, I get it, Thank you very much Smitty!
My only concern now, is that my team could to weak on WR’s with that strategy…I think I should go Aj.Green, then QB and WR, then RB and WR/TE.. what do you think?
@djgana sure, I think that could work, but again I go back to BPA. But doesn’t hurt to go in thinking that, and if the best players available at WR and RB are close, or QB, it makes it easy to stick to a set-like plan.
@ Smitty, definitely that makes sense, thanks for your help!
Yet, whats the logic behind BPA if you keep so many points at the bench each week?
Well, you go BPA to a point, you don’t grab bench players before your WR1 or anything… best player avalable to fill the line up, of course.