Updated Rookie-Only Mock Draft!

Ok, now that all the incoming 2013 fantasy football rookies have landing spots, it’s time to crank out some serious rookie mock draft content!

Below you will find a fresh rookie-only mock draft that contains a mixture of DraftCalc contributors and users; this draft is a two-round mock and it’s based on a PPR dynasty format. Below that you will find extremely-detailed commentary on most of the picks. How good will Montee Ball and Le’Veon Bell be right out of the gate? Is Eddie Lacy a bust candidate? All that, and more, can be found below. So, let’s get to it!

Enjoy!

2013 Fantasy Football Rookie-Only Mock Draft

Round One

1.01 – Montee Ball (Max)
1.02 – Le’Veon Bell (Smitty)
1.03 – DeAndre Hopkins (garyzab)
1.04 – Eddie Lacy (Mile_High_Man)
1.05 – Giovani Bernard (thedude)
1.06 – Tavon Austin (DeathStars)
1.07 – Cordarrelle Patterson (N_Diddy)
1.08 – Zac Stacy (Northwoods)
1.09 – Marcus Lattimore (Swampies)
1.10 – Denard Robinson (booya25)
1.11 – Justin Hunter (wh0urdady)
1.12 – Johnathan Franklin (cohendpt)

Round Two

2.01 – Andre Ellington (Max)
2.02 – Christine Michael (Smitty)
2.03 – Tyler Eifert (garyzab)
2.04 – Keenan Allen (Mile_High_Man)
2.05 – Geno Smith (thedude)
2.06 – Knile Davis (DeathStars)
2.07 – Da’Rick Rogers (N_Diddy)
2.08 – Joseph Randle (Northwoods)
2.09 – Aaron Dobson (Swampies)
2.10 – Tyler Wilson (booya25)
2.11 – Zach Ertz (wh0urdady)
2.12 – Terrance Williams (cohendpt)

Smitty’s Take

I’m extremely-excited about both Montee Ball and Le’Veon Bell heading into 2013. Ball, 5-10/214 pounds, is a scoring machine, proven by his 39TDs in 2011 alone, and accented by his 22 rushing scores in 2012; Ball set an NCAA record with 83 all-purpose touchdowns during his college career. Insane! There is no better touchdown-capable runner in this 2013 rookie running back class! This is why his landing spot couldn’t have been scripted any better, as he lands in one of the most TD-capable situation in the NFL. Denver could hand Ball more touchdown opportunities than he can handle. Peyton Manning and that Broncos’ passing attack will make it nearly impossible for defenses to worry about Ball during his rookie season; teams are going to focus on stopping the proven, which is Manning’s gunslinging shows. I absolutely love both Montee’s “now” and “future” value, and I see no reason why he can’t rush for at least 1,000-1,100 yards and score 10TDs during his rookie campaign; he has upside for a whole lot more than that, though, especially when you throw in some receiving action, something he will thrive at in time.

What about Le’Veon Bell? I’ll put it this way… I love Bell’s situation so much, I struggle with ranking Ball over Bell. I do. In fact, if I had the 1.01 in two different leagues, I’d go Ball in one and Bell in the other. That isn’t to suggest I have doubts about Ball, my No. 1 ranked rusher, it’s just that close, and both runners are that exciting. Bell was my No. 2 overall-ranked running back for almost the entire off-season, even when it wasn’t a popular slot to have him in. When I watch/watched film on Bell, I see/saw an ideal frame for the NFL, incredible vision, elusiveness you can’t teach; toss in that he is now Pittsburgh’s uncontested starting rusher (for both the now and the future), what is not to like? Pittsburgh has a very underrated offensive line, one littered with injuries over the last couple years, and one that entered last year as consensus top 8-12 offensive line. The Steelers worked on improving the O-line during the 2012 NFL Draft, which is why they had so much promise heading into the 2012 NFL season, but again, injuries and no rushing attack set the unit back. I think everything comes together for that Steelers’ offensive line in 2013 now that the team has a legit bell cow at the running back position. An elite-capable running back, which Bell is, can improve O-line performance fast, so don’t underestimate this group heading into this upcoming NFL season.

So if I had just one single 1.01 pick to use in all of my leagues in 2013, who do I pick? Is it Ball or Bell? Honestly, I don’t think you can go wrong with either running back at 1.01, but I give the edge to Ball given how touchdown-friendly the guy is… TDs just fall into his lap, and fall they shall in Denver in 2013! Bell could get more carries right out of the gate, and he might be the safer choice of the two, as Ball just has a touch more risk for bust given his mileage; that said, though, the risk isn’t big, it’s just something to consider, and it concerns me almost zero. If predicting where these runners get drafted one year from now, I say Ball has a 2014 overall fantasy ADP in the 1.02-1.06 range, while Bell falls somewhere in the 1.04-1.7 range. I expect both to be crazy-high! Say hello to this year’s versions of Trent Richardson and Doug Martin (in terms of values coming off rookie seasons)!

I love the DeAndre Hopkins selection above at 1.03, and I think we could be looking at an eventual top 5-10 fantasy wide receiver. There is good and bad to him landing in Houston. The good news is that he will learn from one of the best receivers in the game, and that is a big-time advantage for a guy we already pegged as having AJ Green and Julio Jones-like skills. He doesn’t play entirely like either, he is more of a morph between the two, which is saying a lot. The bad news is that Hopkins may have to wait a few years to see true fantasy WR1 type targets. This situation for Hopkins is kind of like the situation Julio Jones found himself in when landing in Atlanta. Roddy White was still in his prime when Jones arrived in Atlanta, but White was near that downhill stage in talent, speed and quickness. What did Julio do in year two (like we predicted)? He blew up! Well, I think Andre Johnson has a little more left in the tank right now than Roddy had back when Julio was drafted, so instead of a monster 2nd-year breakout campaign out of Hopkins, we may see him explode in year three. All in all, there isn’t much to complain about when it comes to Hopkins’ landing spot.

I don’t like the Eddie Lacy pick at all at 1.04, and I’ve made it very clear I doubt his ability to stay healthy. I doubted it before the draft, and I doubt it even more now, as Green Bay telegraphed their doubt as well by also selecting Jonathan Franklin, one of the most underrated rookie running backs in this 2013 NFL Draft class. There was even some last-minute draft rumors floating around news wires prior to draft day that suggested that some teams viewed Franklin as the top running back prospect in the entire draft. My prediction is that this 1.04 slotting of Lacy remains the norm for a small period of time, then I predict Franklin, a likely 1.10-2.08 selection right now, switches spots with Lacy, which means that Lacy becomes the 1.10-2.08 pick and Franklin becomes the 1.04-1.08 regular fantasy football rookie prospect. If you have a draft right now, where should you take Franklin? Should you wait until the second-round? I say no. I say go bold, reach a bit. Why? Sometimes it’s ok to reach, sometimes it’s unwise. In general, it’s only unwise when you ruin the upside (like taking a David Wilson as a first-drafted running back just because he is your No. 1 breakout player for 2013); don’t take someone so high that it cuts into that ceiling value that the player has. So, back to rookie-only drafts, there is nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Franklin early, even as early as the very end of the first-round, as he can still CRUSH the draft slot you’re taking him at. Use ADPs to your advantage in most cases, absolutely, and certainly don’t take Franklin near the beginning, or even middle, of the first-round; but, assuming you’re not reaching too far, don’t sleep on your own sleepers if you think someone else could snag them. Someone out there could be as crafty as you (or may also have a draftcalc.com subscription).

I have a lot written on my Tavon Austin doubt, and nothing has really changed despite landing in St. Louis, a team that will use him often. My doubts have to do with his 5-8, 174-pound frame, a frame I don’t see holding up at the NFL level. If he does hold up, he won’t be getting used like most expect, and if he is used like most expect, I do think he will be great when on the field, he just won’t be on the field consistently for more than a year or two. I could be wrong, I know a lot of you love Austin, but LBs in the NFL are a lot bigger.

Think the Denard Robinson pick is too early? Well, it might be a bit of a reach given most don’t have him on their radar yet, but look for that to change in the coming weeks and months. The ultra-talented QB/RB/WR is expected to play running back for the Jaguars; If used right, something we can’t guarantee, we could be looking at the most exciting and explosive version of Darren Sproles/Reggie Bush we’ve ever seen enter the NFL. Look for more on Robinson inside all our upcoming Rookie-Only Analysis!

For more on all of the players above, keep checking our Rookie Analysis section, as updates are coming shortly!