Rise/Decline: Percy Harvin and Russell Wilson both on the rise?

It’s only March and we already have a grip of player movement going on in the NFL. Yesterday, the Seahawks acquired WR Percy Harvin from the Vikings in exchange for a 2013 first-round pick, a 2013 seventh-rounder, and an additional mid-range 2014 draft selection. Wow. What a team Seattle has quickly assembled. Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and now Harvin (to already mix with Sidney Rice and Golden Tate)… this is quite arguably now one of the best offenses in the entire league. Toss in the fact that Seattle is one of the better defensive teams in the league, wow, that’s all I can say about both Seattle’s management and coaching staff.

So, what does the Harvin acquisition do to everyone’s fantasy values entering 2013?

Fantasy Implications for Russell Wilson

You have to love this move for Wilson, who has honestly already looked like an elite passer with less-than-average receivers. While Seattle’s passing game really came together in the second-half of the 2012 NFL season, Wilson dealt with a lot of early-season drops, and one can argue, especially when injuries and reliability are factored in, that both Rice and Tate are more WR2s than they are WR1s. Wilson getting a true WR1 gives Wilson the ability to be a top 2-4 fantasy QB in 2013. Should fantasy owners draft Wilson that high in 2013? Absolutely not. I don’t say that because I doubt him, again, I think top 2-4QB numbers are doable, but it’s important to draft players in draft slots that they can outperform, otherwise, you won’t ever get that edge when drafting your fantasy rosters… Wilson could actually end up being overvalued after this news settles into the industry’s average draft position data, we will have to see about that in a couple weeks… however, if you can land Wilson after the big names fly off the board (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Tom Brady), by all means, consider snagging Wilson as your team’s 2013 passer, and know that he has the upside to outperform. This Harvin addition should have Wilson cranking out stats like these: 3,600-3,800 passing yards, 31TDs, 10-12 INTs, 450-500 rushing yards and 5-8 rushing scores. If healthy, Harvin is going to make it tough for defenses to contain Wilson in 2013, especially on the run.

Fantasy Implications for Percy Harvin

What does this move do for Harvin’s fantasy value? Honestly, I think Harvin sees a decent increase in TDs and receiving yards. Harvin should earn his first 1,000-yard receiving season, while pulling in 80 or so passes with 6-7 receiving touchdowns. I see him running the ball for about 150-200 yards, and that should lead to a couple rushing scores. That’s if he remains healthy. The reason you always see me rank Harvin a little below his “potential” projections is because I want to see him stay healthy as a fantasy WR1. I know, it’s a little unfair tagging him as an injury risk given all the other injury risks in fantasy football that I, and so many others, have faith in, but for some reason I just need to see Harvin, at his smallish size, hold-up and actually surpass the 1,000-yard mark before I just count on the projections that I just stated he was capable of producing.

Did you know Russell Wilson was our #1 Breakout Prediction last August? See for yourself!

Other NFL News

In other news, Anquan Boldin was traded to the 49ers in exchange for a 2013 sixth-round draft pick. As good as Boldin played during the 2012 NFL Playoffs, the receiver enters this upcoming season at the age of 33. Boldin will surely help Colin Kaepernick, and I would say this addition gives the passer a small bump in production, not too much, though… but, Boldin will be more of a low yardage-type player that pulls in some key passes and touchdowns during key moments… I don’t envision much more than that for Boldin in 2013, which means that this acquisition doesn’t hurt the values of either Michael Crabtree or Vernon Davis.

Comments

  1. Great read Smitty. What do you think the Harvin trade does for Marshawn Lynch’s value? Know you think he’s not neccessarily a first round redraft pick, but does this acquisition make you rethink that?

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  2. I don’t think Harvin hurts Lynch, it might help him remain as effective as last year. Defenses would likely have focused on Lynch more in 2013 had SEA not landed Harvin. We will never see the change, but I think it helps him say as good vs dropping off a bit due to being a focal point for defenses. Tough to say for sure, though. Great question. Your thoughts?

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  3. Curious, does the Harvin trade actually help the value of Rice and Tate too (not that they have a lot of value) since teams will be more focused on stopping Lynch and Harvin?

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  4. Love this move for the Hawks and Wilson. Wilson should easily be a top 5 QB imo and I see him with the potential of being the #1 QB this upcoming season.

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  5. Smitty, could we get another story like this for Welker and Amendola, with implications for the Pats and Broncos skill players? Would love to hear your take on that.

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