Week 12 Waiver Wire Advice

Probably Not Available, But Check!

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Bobby Rainey – RB TB

Last week we said to grab Bobby Rainey over Brian Leonard, and his three touchdown performance in Week 11 was straight-up legit! Believe in this runner and that Tampa rushing attack, and plug Rainey into your RB2/flex the rest of the way (if you were lucky enough to land him)! For those in smaller leagues, just do a double take and ensure he isn’t still sitting on waivers.

Rashad Jennings – RB OAK

He isn’t likely available in any medium-to-large size leagues, but in smaller leagues, he doesn’t appear to be even 30-40% scooped up. His 22 carries for 150 yards and 1TD probably won’t be repeated this year, so curb expectations a bit, but he is looking like a very crafty low-end RB2 or flex moving forward. For now, at least.

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Top Adds For Week 12

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Garrett Graham – TE HOU

Garrett Graham should really be on the “He is not likely available” list below, but in small and medium size leagues, he appears to be available more than he should be. His 7 receptions for 136 yards and 1TD in Week 11 likely won’t be repeated anytime soon, but we have been talking this guy up for weeks now, and he is a strong bet for 4/50/1 every time he hits the field.

Joique Bell – RB DET

Joique Bell was a must-add several weeks ago, to the point Reggie Bush owners were worried. Then, Bush bounced-back with a vengeance for a few weeks. While Bush still has nothing to worry about (while he remains healthy), Bell has all kinds of upside, and would thrive if given all the carries. He would thrive to the tune of a strong RB2, and that ‘what if’ upside all by itself, even if he is used spotty right now, makes him a great late-season add. In Week 11, Bell rushed the ball just 9 times, but managed to rack-up 49 yards and a score on those touches (and pulled in 3 passes for 48 yards). He is a touched banged up, but all early indications are that he is just fine for Week 11.

Bryce Brown – RB PHI

LeSean McCoy went down hard during Week 11, with an apparent hamstring injury, but the runner did return. Still, this isn’t his first big-time scare on the field this year, in fact, I think he has rolled around in scary-looking pain several times this season… so, it’s time to be certain that Bryce Brown isn’t available in even medium size leagues.

EJ Manuel – QB BUF

EJ Manuel threw for 245 yards, 2TDs and 0INTs on 20-of-28 passing in Week 11. It’s funny, when he has a bad game, people immediately write him off as a future low-end fantasy QB1, something I think he is fully capable of (at least). He is a rookie, and many forget that not every rookie has a Russell Wilson-type rookie season. If you ask me, Manuel has a bright future, which is something I said prior to Week 1 (and I stand by it, even if more ups and downs are ahead). Additional Note: If Manuel stays consistent and productive, we could see CJ Spiller have a strong finish (assuming he stays healthy); I fear that Spiller needs a balanced offense to bounce-back.

Matt McGloin – QB OAK

Matt McGloin completed 18-of-32 passes for 197 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in Sunday’s Week 11 win against the Texans. He is worth a grab for sure. The unknown product has a very strong arm.

Charles Clay – TE MIA

Charles Clay, after going quiet for a handful of weeks, dropped 6 receptions for 90 yards and 1TD in Week 11. As I said, he went quiet for a while, three weeks straight prior to this week to be exact, but it’s important to note he had a touchdown in each of his three games prior to those silent weeks, and he had a 100-yard outing in Week 2. The tight end has potential and he is a solid add if available (it appears many dropped him last week).

Marquise Goodwin – WR BUF

Marquise Goodwin pulled in 6 receptions for 81 yards and 1TD in Week 11, and while he was dormant last week with just 9 yards, he did drop 2 receptions for 64 yards and a score in Week 9. Inconsistency is the likely scenario here, but if you’re in a dynasty league, make sure this kid isn’t a free agent. He can be a risky, but decent, WR4/5 right now, though, in redraft leagues, but this is mostly a dynasty alert.

Aldrick Robinson – WR WAS

With Pierre Garcon banged up (he could play in Week 12), Aldrick Robinson could see a slight increase in value in the coming week/weeks. Don’t expect too much, but WR4/5 type numbers isn’t hard to imagine (if Garcon is hurt bad, or remains relatively banged up down the stretch).

Knile Davis – RB KC

Knile Davis isn’t a player you’d play right now, but he is a decent grab in case he ever gets shoved into that starting line-up (due to injury). Clearly fantasy owners in smaller leagues can’t grab the guy yet, so in those cases just monitor him closely.

Chris Ogbonnaya/Fozzy Whittaker – RBs CLE

These two rushers only combine for 89 rushing yards in Week 11, but their yards-per-carry equaled 7.4. Look, neither is going to walk you into the playoffs, let alone guarantee you even 10 points per start, but Whittaker had 5 receptions for 41 yards and Ogbo had 6 receptions for 30 yards, so there is some plug-and-play value here if you’re hurting super-bad at your RB2/flex spot. The tough part is predicting which runner will be getting most of the carries come fantasy playoff time.

Christine Michael – RB SEA

If you’re in a small league, it’s near impossible to roster a player that isn’t even flex-worthy, but just keep an eye on him and snag him up if Marshawn Lynch ever goes down, or even if he sniffs injury. He may not look like the clear-cut back-up right now, in fact he looks like the clear third string rusher in SEA right now, but none of that matters when push comes to shove. Need an example? When Mike James went down in Week 10, who was shoved into the line-up immediately during the rest of that Week 10 action? Who was prepared as the back-up? Brian Leonard. Who was quickly moved to the lead role, and fast? Bobby Rainey. While nothing is certain, this is likely the case with Michael, and I own him in many medium-to-large size leagues, and I have my finger over the trigger on a weekly basis in all smaller leagues (as again, you just can’t own him in small leagues, no yet).

Case Keenum – QB HOU

This is a dynasty alert. Don’t bite on the fools gold return of Matt Schaub… actually, with the way this year has been going, nothing is for sure, but my thinking here is that Case Keenum, who was benched in Week 11 in favor of Schaub, could get dropped in a handful of leagues, and in this situation we’re hoping in dynasty leagues… if this is the case, grab Keenum, as I still really believe he has a decent shot at a good future… he is also the key to Andre Johnson’s beasthood this season, so AJ owners need Keenum back under center ASAP. Anyway, the point is, this crazy Week 11 benching of Keenum could present a release/add opportunity in deep dynasty formats. “Could” being the keyword, as coaches have been screwing up player values since the NFL began… no player is a lock to be handed proper opportunity, even if we (the fantasy owners see that the opportunity is warranted)… and that can make a fantasy owner wrong even when he is right.

Antone Smith – RB ATL

Antone Smith came out of nowhere in Week 11, and he could vanish just as quickly… but, it’s hard not to notice his two carries for 88 yards and a score. It would be one thing if he had one monster run totaling up most of that 88 yards, but both of his runs were for 38 and 50 (one of those obviously was a touchdown rumble). Keep an eye on the news wires regarding this guy’s go-forward role.

Rod Streater – WR OAK

Rod Streater pulled in 6 receptions for 84 yards and 1TD in Week 11, so he is worth a look in deeper leagues.

Ladarius Green – TE SD

Ladarius Green pulled in 4 receptions for 81 yards in Week 11, and is worth grabbing/monitoring in the largest of leagues.

Jarius Wright – WR MIN

Jarius Wright dropped 3 receptions for 69 yards and 2TDs in Week 11, so he is worth monitoring. – for now.

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Buy-Low Heading Into Week 12

One Player To Go Get

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Montee Ball – RB DEN

This one is for all you dynasty leaguers out there… Montee Ball had eight carries for 26 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday night’s Week 11 win over Kansas City… and he looked solid the week prior, rushing 5 times for 20 yards, and in the week prior to that, he ran the ball 11 times for 37 yards and a score. It’s not like he is ripping off 5+ YPC on average, but that Denver offense is extremely potent, and Ball has a proven nose for the goal line (evidence by his ball security issues not taking him out of goal line situations). Three touchdowns in three weeks, this is officially a trend. Not a big trend, but a trend worth noticing. Now, all that said, Knowshon Moreno is locked into the starting gig in Denver, there is no denying that fact; however, if anything should happen to Moreno, Ball could go nuts, and he could outproduce what Moreno is cranking out with his time in the driver’s seat. Ok, so that kind of addresses the ‘now’ vs the future, so redraft leaguers should attack/pick-up the runner as well… but, dynasty leaguers need to get a jump on this before Ball’s value goes from no-risk/high-reward to medium-risk/high-reward. His value could go nowhere, know that as well, but you’re buying dirt cheap, so that isn’t a concern here… Was I wrong about Ball? I know many of you might be asking yourselves that, as I had Ball as one of my monster breakouts heading into this year. Honestly, I’m not sure yet, but I will tell you this.. if Ball fails as a full-time start in this league (for the long-haul), it will not be because he lacks elite talent. I don’t care how many times others argue against that point, I’ve heard it over and over again… I haven’t change my tune, nor will I… That doesn’t mean a player with elite talent can’t ruin his chances, though… having talent and capitalizing, well, those are two very different things… Ball has elite skills, a nose for the end zone that would have him in double-digit territory on a yearly basis… he has it all. Sure, he is young, and sure, he is making tons of mistakes, but judging him, and his entire career, as a rookie is just knee-jerk stuff. There are less talented runners that have turned into elite fantasy rushers over the years… all Ball needs is touches. If he fails to rise to the levels I have predicted, much of it will be his fault, thus I will ultimately end up being wrong. That is how this works. No excuses, as evaluating one’s ability to step up, and transition, that’s all a part of this fantasy football scouting process. He has had a chance to capitalize, and he has literally dropped the ball more than a couple of times… you only get so many chances, so he needs to hold onto the football, and he needs to protect Peyton Manning like his (Ball’s) life is on the line… if he does those things, I think he will get a clear-cut shot to run that rushing attack… then I think he has a strong shot to thrive. Will that shot be this year? Next year? Those are obviously questions I cannot answer, but I’m buying low on Montee in all leagues/formats. And, for those ready to call me crazy, just keep in mind that I had these same strong feelings about Michael Turner in 2007, the year he almost got traded to Tennessee (but didn’t)… I called him a top 5RB that off-season in 2007, then I had to wait an entire season while Turner rode the bench yet another year (before ultimately breaking out). And, while this example has mixed results now, I called CJ Spiller a top 5-10RB heading into his rookie season, and especially heading into his second NFL season… well, he didn’t get a shot until this year. What does this prove? First off, I’d probably false start in an olympic trial… Second, I’m not suggesting I know all, I have missed my share of big predictions (look at Trent Richardson, David Wilson and Lamar Miller this season)… No one can land every prediction they make, especially bold-based predictions that either result in a home run or a strike-out, but my point is that it’s easy to quickly judge a player and suggest that his career will be disappointing, even if that player has barely received a chance… keep in mind that Marshawn Lynch vanished for two seasons prior to his 5th, 6th and 7th NFL seasons (2011, 2012 and now 2013), and again, CJ Spiller wasn’t even considered for starting carries until his third season (this year)… Montee Ball is still just 10 games into his first ever NFL season, that’s all I’m saying. Buy-low, not high, but buy-low!

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