- Week 8: Sneaky Starts
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Colin Kaepernick at JAC
Colin Kaepernick has been hit and miss this year. He started the season off with a bang, then went almost dormant for several weeks. Well, he faces the Jaguars in Week 8, the absolute worst rushing defense in the league. So, he should have a big day on the ground, as should Frank Gore (I’m thinking 110-120 rushing and a score for Gore). The Jaguars are in the bottom 12 against the pass, so while anything can happen, and flow of game can take any piece of an offense out of fantasy play, this game screams ‘solid’ for Kaep. I can see the passer throwing for 200-230, 2TDs, all while rushing for 40-50 on the ground.
Joseph Randle at DET
The Lions are in the bottom 10 against the run. The only problem here is regarding the health of DeMarco Murray (MCL), as he could be back, so stay on the news… also, the plan of use for Phillip Tanner, who vultured a touchdown away from Joseph Randle last week, that is also concerning. So, the news is important on this one, stay on it, as this could go from ‘great match-up’ to “I picked the wrong player to start” in a snap. If you’re not sure whether or not you should start one of these guys as we near kickoff, jump on our forums and create a start bench poll, which is a new feature we added to ‘adding discussions’… The good news is that Randle received 19 carries last week, so if Murray is out, Randle is likely in for a big day, at least carry-wise. Also, monitor the Lance Dunbar news, as he could get in the mix as well, but I just throw that out as a precaution. So, again, this is a great match-up, but be careful and only use one of these guys if the news starts looking good for one of them.
Darren Sproles / Pierre Thomas / Khiry Robinson vs. BUF
Like with Joseph Randle, this is one of those fantastic match-ups, but there is caution regarding the timeshare going on. Darren Sproles is clearly the no-brainer here, and he could have a big game in this one, but one of Pierre Thomas/Khiry Robinson should as well. My money is on Robinson, as he is currently the touchdown vulture. Like with the Randle advice above, stay on the news for this one, but if all goes well for Robinson, he could have a nice outing against the league’s fourth-worst rushing defense!
Tim Wright vs. CAR and Jordan Reed at DEN
Both tight ends are breaking out here recently, two players our forums and DraftCalc users have been talking about for 2-3 weeks now. Jordan Reed’s last two lines look like 4-58/0 and 9/134-1. Beast. And, while Tim Wright had a bad game last week (2-15/0), his two games prior were 5-41/0 and 7-91/0. Don’t be afraid to run either of these guys out as your TE1 moving forward. This especially goes for Reed. Wright has a tough match-up against CAR this week, but given TB will be without Doug Martin, and likely trailing in this game, lots of passing will take place in that 3rd- and 4th-quarter of this Thursday night battle.
Harry Douglass at AZ, Kris Durham at MIN and Jarrett Boykin vs. DAL
Arizona is 24th against the pass, the Vikings are 23rd against the pass and Dallas is 30th against the pass. Don’t be shy about running any of these receivers out as your WR2/3s this week, as they have been huge waiver wire gems over the past two weeks, and all three are in rock-solid positions heading into Weeks 8-16. I wouldn’t be shocked to see all three pull in 5-6 balls for 80 or so receiving yards (all with a strong shot to score).
Jacquizz Rodgers at AZ
He has been very productive as of late, pulling in 2TDs, 8 receptions and 46 receiving yards last week alone, and that was just through the air. He rushed for 2TDs the week prior, so he has 4TDs in two games. He is a fine flex right now, no question. This is the Jacquizz we predicted over a year ago. He’s late to his own party, but that’s ok, he is fun to watch!
NOTE
I hesitate to put Lamar Miller on this list, which has everything to do with how his team misuses him (his talent is not the issue, but talent is painfully only half the battle). His coaching staff refuses to roll with their best rusher, so at this point, it’s tough to count on Miller as any sort of RB2 or strong flex play. If you’re digging for options, and are considering a bum over Miller this week, well, don’t do that. He is worth a play unless you are deep at the RB position. New England has the second-worst rushing defense in the league!
- Week 8: Add-Drop Advice
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Shane Vereen – RB (NE)
Same drill as last week… make sure this guy isn’t on waivers in your league. Shane Vereen is eligible to come off IR (wrist) in Week 11, and with no successful rushers making statements in his absence, and this includes the inconsistent Stevan Ridley, Vereen could shine down the stretch. “Could” being the keyword, as we don’t know how fast the Patriots will ease him into action, but my guess is that if healthy, New England will turn to the Darren Sproles-like rusher/receiver.
Mike James – RB (Bucs)
While there are conflicting reports out regarding how long Doug Martin will be out of action (some reports say he’s done for the year, others suggest he is just out for Week 8), Mike James is still a very solid grab heading into Week 8, as there is still some serious concern that Martin (torn labrum) is in fact done for the year. James has tough upcoming match-ups in Week 8 and 9, against CAR and then at SEA, so curb expectations a bit, especially if those are the only two games he could play. If you own Martin, stay all over the news over the next few days.
Peyton Hills – RB (NYG)
While it’s tough to suggest that Peyton Hillis has more than 2-3 week value, at least as a flex-like player, who knows how healthy David Wilson and Brandon Jacobs will be in even 3-4 weeks. Wilson could be back sooner than expected, know that, and stay on the news, but until then, Hillis is the kind of player you can play at flex until the ride ends. Hillis only ran for 36 yards on 18 carries (2.0 YPC), he did pull in 5 receptions for 45 yards, and receiving is something he does very well. So, given the guy was ripped straight from his farm/ranch and shoved into a Giants’ uniform, let’s cut him some slack on the 2.0 YPC… thus, we can consider that his 81 total yards and a score, without much practicing at all, was rather impressive. Why can’t Trent Richardson be as involved after so many weeks when Hillis can barely put on a uniform and get so much action? No, it’s not Richardson, it’s how Indy uses him. That’s another story and debate, and I’m not going to argue anything here regarding Richardson, as he is already one of the biggest busts of 2013, but his future is still bright. Ok, back to Hillis. Again, curb expectations here, but just know he has potential if he has to play more games, which is certainly possible. Note: Below we talk about Andre Brown (leg), who could be back in Week 10. So, Hillis is for those needing a play now, Brown is for those looking to invest down the stretch.
Andre Brown – RB (NYG)
Again, Andre Brown kind of steps on Peyton Hillis’ parade, but Brown (leg, PUP) is due back in Week 10, so if he is on schedule to return then, this might be the guy to own. Bump him up a few spots if you hear something in the next few days regarding his progress, or if you’re looking to the waiver wire for later on in the year.
RB Roy Helu – RB (WAS)
Make no mistake about it, Alfred Morris is still Washington’s starting running back, and he had 95 rushing yards in Week 7… that said, Roy Helu is a talented runner, and it is a bit concerning that Helu scored three times in Week 7 (and got 11 carries). Helu is a must-grab for all Morris owners, and really you should own Helu already if you’re a Morris owner (given Mike Shanahan’s history rotating rushers). For non-Morris owners, this guy is still a mediocre-sneaky RB3/flex in upcoming weeks.
Darrius Heyward-Bey – WR (IND)
I’ve never been a big fan of Darrius Heyward-Bey, and I doubt that changes, but given Reggie Wayne’s (ACL) injury, it’s safe to say that both TY Hilton and Heyward-Bey will see a big increase in targets. That’s great for both, and it makes Heyward-Bey fantasy relevant moving forward — Hopefully it makes Hilton beast-relevant moving forward. Hey dynasty leaguers, don’t overlook Colts’ WR LaVon Brazill; he could be a nice gamble-grab right now!
Note
Jordan Reed, Chris Ivory, Harry Douglass, Kris Durham and Jarrett Boykin are all likely owned, which is why they are not listed above, but if available in your league, grab them near the top of this list above!
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Smitty, I was offered L Mccoy for Marshall and Moreno. At first seems alot to give up cause Moreno and Mccoy are seperated by 1 point in our league 122 to 121. I think its sell high time on Moreno and with cutler out a few weeks should i do this trade here is my team. Regardless of what i am giving up does it make my team stronger . I am 4-3 in 4th place , top 6 make playoffs.
QB Stafford
RB Moreno
RB Spiller
WR Dez
WR Marshall
TE J Thomas
Flex L Miller or K Allen or Stacy
Bench : Harvin ( could take Marshall’s place if healthy) , Andre Brown, Hopkins, Stacy, Ball, McGahee
Man, that’s tough. I’m assuming dynasty, but either way, if Moreno is scoring as much as McCoy in your format, why give up a Marshall. Can’t you give Moreno and Harvin for McCoy? Sell the fact that they are even. Give up Stacy and Moreno? I’m not saying you’d be nuts to do this, but I venture to say you may be able to do this keeping Marshall?
Smitty, it really a redraft cause we can only keep 1 player each year. I would basically do if for this year , i am 4-3 . I am worried moreno won’t keep up value and marshall with new qb wont be wr1. Next year i would keep either dez in 3rd, spiller in 6th , harvin in 14th, or moreno in 13th can only keep 1 so if dynasty do i do the trade. The only thing I am thinking is if i trade marshall i can put k allen or p harvin as my wr2 instead of marshall and flex either andre brown if starter, l miller , k allen or harvin??? should i do this for redraft. Mccoy would be a 1st round keeper not keeping anyway with other options .
It’s still a tough move to make given how well Moreno is playing. Did you get a forum response? I’d post a poll (our new forum feature). I’ll chime in!
Nice write-up, Smitty.
Finley was talking about how his family wanted him to leave the game earlier this year and now he’s seeing a specialist this week regarding his career.
Who’s the TE now to own in GreenBay for the rest of this season? Quarless or Bostick?
Honestly, it could change with those two, as it depends on the coaching. Quarless is suppose to start, so he’d be the easy call at this stage, but Bostick seems to have the size and that WR mentality. Dynasty I say Bostick and redraft Quarless if you need the guy now, and Bostick if you’re thinking week 11 or later? But, again, this is pure speculation and guessing on my part, we need to see more. Good question, though.
I think Housler should be on this list. I’m not going to play him over Reed, but I like him this week.
He could be on a list like this, sure, but just as easily left off. I think AZ is the piece of the equation I doubt.
In a dynasty / keeper league, am i crazy to trade Ray Rice for Leveon Bell!??!?!?!?!?!?!
Crazy? No. could it come to that in a couple more weeks? Sure. Do I think it will? No. I buy low at that price too, but again, not that it can’t get there, it’s a crazy year. Maybe go after a Gio and someone, or buy a Doug Martin and someone, or a TRich and a big WR as well. If you don’t think TRich will ever rebound, ignore that one, but he is still very young. Bad year, no question. Martin is the guy I’d attack vs. Bell, and Rice might get it done, and you will likely get a lot more, or a nice WR upgrade in a 2 for 2.
Thanks Smitty! And ignore all of the nay sayers. Yes, you missed some this year. But hell, it’s the NFL. If they want the cookie cutter “last year’s stats” predictions then stick with CBS sports. Anybody can play Monday morning QB. Stay bold!
On TRich, he looks stuck in mud. What’s up with that dude? I firmly believed he’d be the next AP. I can’t figure it out.
Thx buddy!
10 team standard
Someone offered me Danny Woodhead and Demaryius Thomas in exchange for LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin. I don’t feel this is fair value at all for McCoy though so I’m thinking of countering and asking for A.J. Green instead of Thomas. The trade would then be me getting Woodhead and Green and him getting McCoy and Harvin. I’m definitely thinking about it because I’m 1-6 right now and I also have Forte, and with McCoy playing in that fast paced offense getting so many carries I don’t know how safe I feel about his outlook with all these players dropping like flies recently.
My team btw:
QB – Andrew Luck, Tony Romo
RB – LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Mike James (lost Doug Martin), Lamar Miller
WR – Pierre Garcon, Harry Douglas, Rueben Randle, T.Y. Hilton, Percy Harvin
TE – Greg Olsen, Heath Miller
do not take that trade. McCoy a stud and Harvin soon to be!
What he said!
I’m in last in a .5 PPR, I have accumulated RBs off waivers being in last all year we do waivers by reverse standings.
I now have at RB:
Deangelo
Zac Stacy
Mike James
Joseph Randle
Lamar Miller
I have Clay at TE, would u trade Zac Stacy straight up for Jordan Cameron? I have been offered it and I feel it would be dumb to turn down
Assuming you aren’t starting Stacy, sure. Nice waiver moves!
Is Marquess Colston done? Waive or keep, he did nothing even with Graham out.
He could be, but he isn’t someone I’d drop, and he is certainly someone I’d pick up if someone else did. He has fallen into the WR3/4 range, meaning some teams, depending on depth, could use him as a WR3 despite risk he does nothing… and other teams couldn’t start him, but stash him.
I actually meant taken out of the game by Pats not out as in injured
Smitty,
I know we are talking about diff positions and needs for my team. But my question is easy. Which of the guys below is the best bet for points for the rest of the year.
Durham, khiry Robinson, Tim Wright, ?
Robinson, then the other two. Only because Robinson could be the goal line vulture moving forward, and still has some, not a ton, but some upside for good yardage. NO has a lot of backs, and Pierre Thomas isn’t going to just go away, but Robinson is a good player and currently has the TD momentum. That could vanish in a snap, though, so steady is Wright, but bigger play potential is Robinson. Durham is a solid player, he deserves to be in the convo, but he may be much more consistent next year?
Smitty,
With all due respect, this has been a rough season based on your advice. Richardson, Julio, Lamar Miller, and Jared Cook. All bums! Well Julio got injured so that doesn’t count. But I’m hurting here man. Please tell me you feel my pain. Lol.
TRichardson has disappointed. Cook cost nothing, he was all reward and no risk given his ADP. Miller, yes, and I warned fantasy owners not to reach for him, he too has disappointed. I agree. I have a couple teams hurting dude to Richardson and Miller. There was a lot of other advice given over the course of the off-season, as mentioned in the comment below. It just so happens your two are paired with an unpredictable injury in Julio, something I’m also feeling pain on in a few leagues (As I own him in several leagues). And we have been providing add/drop and trade help all season, in order to get a jump on helping these teams like these rebound.
I wish I could hit em all ever year, my friend. I am never happy when a few of my big predictions don’t land. I think it’s been 8 straight years without any big and major disappointments, something I look to remedy in 2014!
Hey Smitty…
I am still seeing the comments about how it’s your fault TRich is struggling, or why Lamar Miller isn’t being used properly (which you warned people about…being Spillered). Just to let you know, I used your recommendations and have TRich and Miller, and I am still in the hunt because I also have Julius Thomas, AJ Green, Josh Gordon and TY Hilton (who might just explode now). AndI recently picked up Zac Stacy and Andre Ellington because of your in season advice. I appreciate what you put out.
Anyway, I just picked up DHB off waivers, but see the recommendation of Kris Durham, who wasn’t even on my radar, and is actually available in my 14 team 0.5 ppr league. Should I grab him instead for ROS?
Thanks for the comments. Yeah, I hate that I’ve missed on some pretty big predictions this year, and while I have provided much, much more advice for people to follow all year long, sometimes when I go big on a few players, the rest of the help all year gets lost, which sucks, but I get it. I have landed a ton of my big investment predictions for going on 8 years, a down year, in some areas, I guess was to be expected at some point. Again, missing on some big predictions this year is something I will surely look to remedy in 2014!!!!
I think Durham and DHB are both kinda hit and miss, but Durham feels safer. Could DHB be decent with opportunity? Sure, and he may get that opportunity, but Durham just feels safer. His last handful of games won’t knock your socks off, but you can see potential:
@WAS: 1/33/0TDs
CHI: 3/58/0TDs
@GB: 3/30/1TD
@CLE: 8/83yds/0TDs
CIN: 5/41/0TDs
Should I dump Lamar Miller for Andre Brown?
I’d find a way to roster both. I can’t say Brown won’t outscore him once back, because he easily could, but MIA and that “missing the boat” coaching staff shouldn’t even be putting fantasy owners in this kind of position. Regardless, they are, and they refuse to play a top 10RB. I stand by him being that good. Sometimes coaches make me wrong, or a year early. I couldn’t drop Miller, I’d try to roster both.
Post a poll on our forums (using our new poll feature located at the bottom of the post when you create it – the check box). List maybe the top 2-3 guys you could cut and then ask the question? I’d get more opinions on this one. Also maybe describe your team a bit, and if Brown will absolutely be needed, or is this spot a ‘stash’ spot regardless? Things like that…
I drafted David Wilson and Lamar Miller in rounds three and four and my RBs have been a struggle. Total points is the winner in this league. I’m in third place 150 points out of first. No one trades in this league. All TDs are 6 pts. TDs over 50 yards are 12 pts., PPR scoring. Must start QB (1), RB (2), WR (3), TE (1), K, (1), DEF (1), FLEX (1). Hoping to grab Andre Brown and play him with Vereen down the stretch. Whether its Lamar Miller’s talent, miss use by the coaching staff, poor off line, whatever it is doesn’t matter. His point production from week to week is poor. I have a lot of late bye weeks that hurts my flexibility with my roster. Here is my team…
Cam Newton
Russell Wilson
Lamar Miller
Roy Helu
Zac Stacy
Andre Ellington
Shane Vereen
Dez Bryant
AJ Green
Jordy Nelson
R. Randle
A. Jeffreys
Percy Harvin
G. Olsen
Jordan Reed
Prater
Pats DEF
Panthers DEF
Any you have to have two defenses at this point? CAR is strong. Even Olsen might be a drop consideration? I hold onto Miller if at all possible, but do grab Brown!
Smitty, I finally convinced the guy im trading that moreno is a rb1 and mccoy on the decline a little with eagles qb situation i was offered mccoy and t smith or andre johnson for moreno and b marshall. Do i want .5 ppr all tds worth 6 t smith or andre johnson. Worried andre worse off with keenum than schaub ?? or should i be. T Smith having a nice season 20 yards per reception a better qb flacco. I should do the deal right give up moreno and marshall for mccoy and either wr ??
Again, I still take this to the forums (create a poll), but McCoy and Andre Johnson for Moreno and Marshall, yeah, I do that given this is kind of a redraft move, as Spiller is your one keeper. See what the Nation says, though, Moreno is tough to value right now. He is playing so well.
Hey smitty i dont have my original email that i signed up with. my new email that i use for fantasy stuff is ***** im trying to get on the forums can u send me something and help me out thanks.
Sent you an email.