Every single year a grip of fantasy football players appear to have both “bust” and “beast” potential. These players are often coming off injuries, or they are rookies entering the league with a mixed bag of doubt and belief… or, these players are doubted/believed in for a variety of other reasons. Well, below are a list of some of the biggest names that walk this fine line, and I will provide my take… are the following players “beast” or “bust”? Check out what I think, then you decide!

Note: These players are ranked in order of highest impact, negative or positive

#1 Biggest Impact: BEAST

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1. Lamar Miller

I talk about Lamar Miller as my No. 1 breakout candidate for 2013 here and here (read those links if you haven’t!). I firmly believe that this kid is the next Arian Foster, as written here, and I firmly believe that top 1-5 fantasy running back production in 2013 is possible for the rising star. The crazy part here isn’t my high expectations, it’s how far Miller has climbed ADP rankings in the last few weeks. He has been one of my top 1-4 Bold Predictions for 2013 since about February, and climbed to my top spot in roughly March… so, hopefully all you DraftCalc dynasty league owners out there have already take advantage of what was stupid-good value for the Dolphins rusher. Miller is sure to cost one a third-round pick heading into mid-August drafts, if he isn’t already earning that draft slot, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him climb into the second-round closer to September 1. Is he still worth a high third-round grab? Absolutely! Is he worth a low second-round pick? Yes, as any player capable of top 5RB numbers can still breakout in a major way from a late second-round draft slot, however, DO NOT reach for Miller any earlier than you have to. Reaching well past a player’s ADP is not smart management, and anyone reaching in extreme fashion in order to land sleepers is going to miss out on all that breakout value that wins leagues! Plus, Miller as a 3-4 round pick is “low-risk” with “through the roof” type reward. Once you start drafting Miller in the second, his “reward” potential still remains high, it’s not as high, but still high… however, that “low-risk” turns to “moderate-risk” pretty fast. I am willing to take that risk when the time comes, but risky moves aren’t for everyone… know that risk is present, and know that reaching prematurely is not smart drafting! I will say, I as called absolutely insane for talking this way about a month ago. Will all the buzz about Miller this week, and with other sites finally jumping onto the Lamar Miller wagon, I’m now being called merely bold for my Miller predictions. Get ready for “Well, everyone knew he’d breakout” comments come September… it happened with our Arian Foster (2010) predictions, Dez Bryant (2012) predictions and Cam Newton predictions… it will happen again. Congrats to all who have been on the Lamar Miller wagon from the start (JRMRRT being one of my drivers of the wagon).

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#2 Biggest Impact: BEAST

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David Wilson

As with Lamar Miller, I already talk up David Wilson here. After Miller, there is no bigger breakout candidate at the running back position heading into 2013. The risk with Wilson is his coaching, as there is that slight chance he gets CJ Spillered (not used effectively) in 2013… that said, if his ADP remains in the 3-4 round range, again, you’re talking about “win a league” type upside (with little risk, as he could almost earn 3-4 round value even getting Spillered); So, I’m all in at 3-4 round value! If you haven’t been reading my Miller and Wilson breakout predictions since February/March, shame on you, and catch-up using all of the provided links above!

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#3 Biggest Impact: BEAST

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Robert Griffin III

You want insane value at the quarterback position heading into 2013? Robert Griffin III is your guy! He has even better value in dynasty formats right now (vs. redraft formats), as he ‘could’ be slow moving during the first few weeks of the 2013 fantasy season, but the dude is a physical freak, and anyone doubting his ability to regain his top 1-4 fantasy quarterback value is missing the boat! His redraft ADP is in the 6th- to 7th-round, which is fantastic (just grab a legit back-up, like a Sam Bradford for example)… in dynasty drafts, he has been going in the 5th-round. Too early for you? Well, if you don’t like getting a player in the 5th-round that can potentially outscore every single fantasy football player during any given season, RG3 might not be for you! If he was getting drafted in the 2nd- or 3rd-round range, I’d understand a sense of caution, no question, but 5th- to 6th-round value, I just don’t get why that doesn’t scream “steal of the draft” material to all! In a dynasty league? Try to trade for RG3 before he starts really impressing doubters in the coming weeks and month.

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#4 Biggest Impact: BEAST

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Montee Ball

Ok, the first three players listed above in spots 1-3 (Lamar Miller, David Wilson and RG3) have tremendous ceilings at their current draft value, yet they all have very little risk. That spells no-brainer, by the way. Enter Montee Ball, a player that indeed has the same ceiling value as the three players just mentioned; however, Ball has more risk. He is a rookie… rookies can hit rookie walls… there is some concern about John Fox (although, I speak to that here, and I’m not overly concerned about long-term RBBC scenarios). Bottom line is, rookies are never locks to produce, and despite having high expectations for Ball entering 2013 and beyond, especially that “beyond” part, know that risks are always present with rookies! How high are my expectations for Ball in 2013? I think top 5-10RB numbers are doable, again, though, with more risk than some… I think top 1-6RB numbers are in the cards in 2014 and beyond, again, with more risk than some with similar ceiling values. This “Beast” prediction comes with a grip more potential for “Bust” than any player listed through 1-4, and this is a good time to say “never load-up all of your fantasy teams up with players that have any sort of “Bust” potential.” I will own Ball in a lot of leagues, but not near all of them! That’s because of “Bust” potential. Lamar Miller, on the other hand, has such little risk, but has the same “Beast” potential, so he is a player you may find on most all of my rosters in 2013 (if his ADP stays in the 3rd-round range!).

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#5 Biggest Impact: BUST

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LeSean McCoy

I own LeSean McCoy in one dynasty league, and I can’t trade him even remotely-near his going ADP. It’s strange, McCoy is getting drafted quite high, first-round, in new/fresh dynasty start-up drafts, however, if in an existing league, you can’t trade him for a second-round receiver (in even a non-PPR format)! So, what’s the solution if you already own McCoy in a dynasty league? Don’t sell-low! There is time to sell players – When they have big games. Plus, if you own McCoy, you could always trade for Bryce Brown. Together, that duo all of the sudden isn’t that risky. It’s not top 5 material to me, but it’s solid. In fact, I would remove McCoy from the “Bust” list if he is handcuffed to Brown, but he doesn’t come with Brown when you draft him, so “Bust” he is… Why? Concussions. We are seeing how serious concussions are to a player’s career when we are talking about “severe” concussions. Severe, in my scenario, can be defined by a player sitting out multiple games, or needing second opinions from doctors upon returning to action, or when a player suffers multiple concussions (with the later concussions proving to be more severe than the concussions prior). What do we know about concussions? Not everything, however, what we do know is that successive concussions typically occur again with less head trauma than previous concussions. Meaning, if one gets a concussion, specifically a more “severe” concussion, that person is likely to suffer a concussion again with less impact, or head trauma, than before. One is more susceptible. You can argue the point, there is certainly room to debate the controversial topic, but all I know is this… McCoy was out four-straight games in 2012 after suffering his “severe” concussion, with talk of shutting it down for the entire season. If you want to gamble on McCoy in 2013, go right ahead. I won’t draft him myself, not in a fresh dynasty draft, and he’d have to fall to ridiculous second-round value for me to take a stab in even a redraft league (and I’d reach for Brown much earlier than anyone would anticipate). If you are even considering the handcuff approach entering 2013, why not just draft Bryce Brown and get all reward and no risk?

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#6 Biggest Impact: BEAST

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Kenny Britt

Kenny Britt is the same age as both Julio Jones and AJ Green, so when I hear people say that Britt has had his chance already, I laugh. He had a rough year back from ACL surgery in 2012, no question, but do you remember what his first two games looked like in 2011 right before he tore his ACL? He tore his ACL in his third game in 2011, but in Weeks 1 and 2 that year, he did this: 5 receptions, 136 yards, 2TDs (Wk1) and 9 receptions, 135 yards, 1TD (Wk2)… The best part is that his ADP is in the 8th-round right now. Yep, that’s “steal of the draft” material right there! Invest without hesitation at that value!

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#7 Biggest Impact: BUST

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Steven Jackson

Why do I predict “Bust” out of Steven Jackson entering 2013? A new team, eight-straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons, 2395 NFL rushing attempts, 10,135 NFL rushing yards, 407 NFL receptions and 2,802 combine NFL rushing attempts/receptions… any questions? Could he crank out one more season with elite numbers? Sure, anything is possible, but given that he has visually lost a step, I’ll let someone else take the risk this year. Instead, I invest in Jacquizz Rodgers, a long-time sleeper of mine, who will cost you a 11-15 round pick!

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#8 Biggest Impact: BUST

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Colin Kaepernick

I like Kaep, I do, but people are grabbing this quarterback as the 6th- to 7th-drafted fantasy passer heading into all formats. That’s often ahead of Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III. I’m not suggesting that he can’t earn that kind of value, but if forced to label Kaep underrated, or overrated, I scream overrated, especially given that he runs a lot and is still unproven in my eyes. I know, RG3 runs a lot, and is coming off ACL surgery, so how can I talk down on Kaep and not RG3? Yep, life isn’t fair, and I’m going to play the “gut” card here… I’m going to put this out there for you 49ers fans… if Kaep disappoints, or more realistically he gets hurt, get ready for a solid season-saving performance out of Colt McCoy, one of the most underrated back-up passers in the league. I have been waiting for McCoy to get another chance to start in this league, and I just want to put that out there now.

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#9 Biggest Impact: BEAST

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Larry Fitzgerald

We all have missed Larry Fitzgerald and his top 5WR production. Carson Palmer is gonna bring Fitzy back, yeah! Fitz is still a top 5-7 dynasty wide receiver.

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#10 Biggest Impact: BEAST

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Randall Cobb

In hindsight, everyone is going to be saying “How did we not fully expect Randall Cobb to drop such numbers in that offense?” It’s hard to argue that Cobb isn’t Rodgers’ new favorite target in Green Bay; That alone makes Cobb a potential top 10 fantasy wide receiver (with the upside for even more). Use ADPs to your advantage, though, as Cobb shouldn’t be drafted with tier one receivers (even if you feel he can dance with the big dogs in 2013!); you don’t have to invest at that value, and not investing at that value is the key to owning a breakout!

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#11 Biggest Impact: BUST

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Andre Johnson

I could be a year early on this one, but word is out that Andre Johnson has lost a step. What does that mean? Can AJ still be a top 10WR despite losing a step? Sure, but I’d much rather snag a breakout candidate like Lamar Miller or David Wilson over AJ in 2013. I’d even grab a quarterback like Cam Newton before I invest in a veteran that is set to potentially disappoint.

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Of course there are other names that could have cracked this list, so feel free to leave a comment about such players below!

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