When heading into any fantasy football draft, you have to know where players are, on average, getting drafted. If you don’t study this kind of information, or have it readily available during your draft, two things are likely to happen to you:
Result Of Not Knowing ADPs
- You will reach way too high for certain players, ruining draft value of the player(s)
- Others will snag your targeted players before you do
ADP Research Tips
- 1. Always try to draft players that you feel are much better than their ADP suggests; this is where ‘Upside’ truly lies.
Example: TY Hilton has an ADP of 81 overall, and if you ask me, he has top 10-15WR upside – That’s huge upside and almost no risk!
More Tips
- 2. Avoid drafting high-risk/injured players near their ADPs; the further you draft a player from his ADP, the lower the risk becomes.
Example: Drafting Maurice Jones-Drew in the 2nd-round, which is where his ADP currently sits, is a recipe for disaster. Let others draft high-risk players this high, as there are much safer options in the 18-24 overall range!
- 3. Reaching higher than a player’s ADP is ok if your reasoning is sound; don’t reach because you are excited, be smart!
Bad Example: An example of reaching in a not-so-smart fashion would be to draft Lamar Miller in the top 12-14 overall when his ADP sits in the 3.01-3.12 range, depending on the data you look at. His ADP average is 3.10, so to reach is not smart, as he typically can be had so much later. If you want Miller bad, but don’t think he will fall (let’s say you have a late third-round pick), join another league and draft him, don’t ruin all your upside drafting him at a spot he “has” to perform at in order for you to break even on your investment.
Good Example: An example of a legit reach would be grabbing Lamar Miller with the first pick in the third round even though his ADP lingers between that slot and 3.12. If the player can still EXTREMELY outperform their ADP, and in this case Miller can still crush a 3.01 ADP, then reaching isn’t always a wrong move.
Smitty and crew,
This is truly the best site in the history of fantasy football. Simple yet complex. All levels of knowledge, so there is a benefit to all. Thank you. Time to draft and become playoff bound!
Thanks, Biggie! You guys are the ones that make it all happen by showing up!
Regarding ADP it seems to be site dependent. I am in a Yahoo and CBS league and the default ranking certainly impact how people draft. How do you suggest accounting for that? Thanks.
Very true, and very annoying isn’t it, unless someone you like is ranked very low
?
This would be a great research angle, but tough to really place a control in place. You are right, though, rank lists impact a lot!
smitty, do you bracket your rounds according to the scoring of the league?..like do you have a stat range a guy should perform at for each round like for example lets say in the 3rd round a WR u take should be capapble of no less than a 1,000 yd/8 td season….i wish i had a better way to ask my question sorry bare with me, its just so many rankings are the same but should really be more different because theres truly not a ranking for every type of score setting its why i drive myself nuts all summer preparing for each of my leagues, theyre all different..
youre usually super quick with your replys but i dont blame you if this one gets tossed under the rug
Honestly, it’s much more simple than that for me. I’m sure people imagine me drafting with all kinds of programs running, analysis, stat driven excel files.. nope. Best Player Available (assuming I’m drafting to fill my line-up). That’s how simple it is. I never walk out of a draft, or try to never walk out of a draft, drafting on brackets, tiers or anything that tells me what to do. I feel there is no fun in drafting based on what something tells me to do, a tier for example. I draft who I want, the player I think is the best available. Before each draft, I do look at player scoring from the previous year using the league’s current scoring format. This way outliers stand out, like Cam Newton over every other QB in leagues that award something like 3pts per TD pass but 6pts per TD run. These things are a must to know what players should be ranked higher than normal, but no, no brackets, no tiers, all gut!
where do we find adp?
Several places… 1. Above, click on the “View ADP Data” image. 2) Hover over “Rankings” on the top site navigation, and click on “ADP”… and many more places.
Smitty I’m in a 14 team auction, I know you advise people not to reach relative to ADP. I think most people see TRich as the 9th or 10th best rb available. I’m hopin to pay less than $60 for him. I know you value him at $66 but would you pay that much? I know you have players like Britt ranked very high but wouldn’t take him at that price, it’s just an expression of value.
Lovin the site by the way, great stuff.
Keep in mind that my value is how I see him almost finishing. So, use ADPs, including Auction Value type ADPs I guess you could say, to your advantage. In an auction, the group should control Richardson not reaching 66, but if he does, yes, he is worth it. That reach is ok, just as long as he isn’t the top dollar getter. If he is, I’d almost say pass, let everyone overspend, and pay for 3 elite WRs like Julio, Dez and AJG (or Calvin obviously), and clean up drafting undervalued DMacs and Millers and Montees in that RB stage of your auction. I spent 66 on TRich in a $250 auction recently. Auctions are a bit tougher to say “don’t reach”, as the flow and dollar trends are so hard to predict. No advice can carry over from any one auction to another.
Is mendy that much upside or should it be vereen ?
You are right. Misplaced. Fixed. I apologize for getting Mendy owners excited, that was meant for Vereen.
Smitty help
Gio to get both pierce and vereen dynasty ppr ……?
I think I take that my friend. Vereen alone could be as good as Gio. Could Gio be top 10 someday? Sure, but Vereen could explode just as easily, and if he doesn’t, Pierce could just as easily.
Other thoughts? I could see many liking Gio more here, it isn’t a super easy call, that’s for sure.
That was my thought but I asked to d calcs last week and it was all gio so I backed down I was the initiator and pusses the other team off but I think they still are wanting to I’m going to pull it ….
Pissed off*