One thing that can become overlooked in fantasy football is the skill of being able to change mindset directions. What do I mean? Well, we often “stick to our guns” no matter what when it comes to certain players. To be an effective fantasy football owners, one must learn how to let go of certain early predictions if situations change for the worse in regards to a particular player, and one needs to be able to adapt fast to warning signs and downfalls.
Yes, this is going to bring us straight to the rise of Giovani Bernard!
- Giovani Bernard on the rise?
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Giovani Bernard
Can one change their mind and still be a good fantasy owner? That’s the question many of us ask ourselves when a bold prediction, or even regular old prediction, starts heading down a disappointing path. Look, this business is full of surprises, injuries, miscalculations… if anyone could be 100% accurate on any aspect of fantasy football predicting, we wouldn’t even play the game on Sundays. The true test of a good fantasy owners is understanding patters quickly, being able to observe and adapt, recognize when a player may be on the rise (even if you doubted that player previously), and when a player is on the decline (even if you supported that player previously). It’s simple, but it’s hard to follow through on – for some reason. This makes or breaks seasons! An example is my new ranking of Giovani Bernard. By no means have a come out and called the guy a “for sure” bust heading into 2013, in fact I have talking about how talented the runner is; however, I admit that I was cautiously optimistic about Gio coming out of the 2013 NFL Draft due to both size and situation. Things change. His size still concerns me a bit, but not enough to ignore the upside. I’m really starting to like what I see out of Gio so far this preseason, and I have a funny feeling he is going to be a nice little surprise when all is said and done in 2013. How good can he be? Well, he still hasn’t earned the starting job yet in Cincy, so one must still be cautious to bank on elite numbers early on, but I think the little guy is far too explosive to keep off the field, and it’s because of this I firmly believe Gio is going to get a fantasy RB2-type workload by 2-4 games into the 2013 NFL season. Benjarvis Green-Ellis is still in the picture, don’t get me wrong, but Gio will be used plenty right out of the gate, especially given how dynamic he is in the passing game. Would I start Gio as a rock-solid fantasy RB2 just yet? No, however, that time might be near, and he might make for a sneaky flex right away! Also, an argument can be made that Bernard has top 1-3 overall upside when looking just at this 2013 fantasy football rookie class. Using the example above, some might even suggest I can’t let go of my early Montee Ball predictions, and that’s one theory. I can understand many seeing it that way, and if his coaching staff never gives him a chance (think CJ Spiller in both 2011 and 2012), I could be waiting silently by myself for a quite a while. Sometimes we’re wrong even when we are right, like I was for two years on Spiller… that’s the way this game works! And, as you will read below on Le’Veon Bell, injuries can derail any prediction. However, I still believe that Ball can be a complete stud, but Gio is making an argument he can be elite as well!
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- LeVeon Bell diagnosed with Lisfranc injury.
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Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon Bell (foot) has been diagnosed with a Lisfranc injury, something that may or may not require surgery. Stay tuned for more on this, but either way this is not good news for those counting on Bell in 2013. It’s important to note, though, that this does not rule out an eventual rise of Le’Veon Bell. He could still very easily rise up from this, even if a year from now… he can still turn into both an outstanding NFL rusher and fantasy rusher. However, for now, it’s time to let go of the idea of Bell having a healthy and successful rookie season. The best-case scenario right now is Bell returning in 4-6 weeks, at which point he’d still be eased back into starter carries. This again is the best-case scenario, and this scenario still leaves opportunity for Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer to solidify a more permanent workload down the stretch in 2013. The worse-case scenario is that Bell requires surgery and misses a grip of time, if not the entire 2013 NFL season. To even try and predict how long Bell will be out is reckless at this stage, so it’s my recommendation that fantasy owners avoid Bell in upcoming yearly-league drafts (until very, very late rounds); dynasty leaguers, that have yet to draft, need to value Bell much like one places value on Marcus Lattimore… that should be a safe place to invest in Bell moving forward in dynasty formats… And, for those that already own Bell in dynasty leagues, all you can do is hold him and wait, and hope for the best. Selling high would be a mistake (in most cases, at least). Injuries happen, one cannot predict freak things like Lisfranc injuries. If you own Bell in an existing league, and let’s say you were counting on him as your RB2/3, do your best to acquire both Redman and Dwyer in order to secure some guaranteed carries. Lastly, for those that do not own Bell in dynasty formats, a buying opportunity might present itself shortly, but until we know more about his injury, buying low is not recommended – yet.
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- Is Arian Foster a good buy-low?
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Arian Foster
Prior to the Le’Veon Bell (Lisfranc) injury, I created a topic on our forums suggesting that “now” is the time to buy-low on Arian Foster. I actually suggested Le’Veon Bell as a good example of a player to trade-in for Foster (while Foster’s value was/is at an all-time bargain-low). I pulled off such a deal a day prior to the injury, and this was after a news report had just posted suggesting that Foster was suffering from some pain shooting down to his legs from his back (requiring injections). This news made Foster even more risky-like once it was reported, but it also created opportunity to buy extremely-low, so low that the risk became greatly minimized and the upside became insane. While we can no longer use Bell as an example when it comes to buying Foster on the cheap, but if you can land Foster using a player that hovers around that 20-25 overall range, let’s say a Darren McFadden or Reggie Bush-type, which is a player that shared the value Le’Veon Bell just had pre-injury, I say attack!
Of course, every league is different, and some leagues are going to value Foster differently than others. Some of you might be saying, “What? Foster is a top 5-10 overall player, how could I get him so cheap?” You won’t be able to acquire him on the cheap in such a league. And, some of you might actually own Foster in your league and your league mates won’t trade a ham sandwich for him. Seriously, that’s the variation across leagues. If you owned Foster, like I did earlier in the off-season in two leagues, my advice two months ago was to sell, sell, sell! My new suggestion now, which is to buy-low, doesn’t make the old suggestion wrong, Foster just holds a different value now, one that is filled with little risk (you are buying low) and insane amounts of upside (given Foster’s top 5RB capability regardless of risks). It’s like selling a home before the housing market tanks, then walking right back into that same house at a lower value right before home values once again rise in prices. That is this exact situation here. Eventually, a “potential bust” can turn “undervalued”… Is there risk that Foster never returns to his top 1-5RB form? Absolutely! Know that! Is there a decent chance that Foster has a top 5RB season? Absolutely. The best part is, though, that even if Foster disappoints a bit in 2013, he will likely still earn you back your investment if you properly buy him low right now.
Again, this may not work in every league, as I said I could barely trade Foster away for Larry Fitzgerald months ago (in the two leagues I owned him in). Yet, in another league, the current Foster owner may have never seen his value drop from top five overall value.
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Great advice as usual Smitty….thx
Quick question. Keeper ppr league. Would u trade Foster, Tate, and Wayne 4 Hilton, Gordon and Vereen???
I hate to give up foster but those 3 guys are going to b very good sooner than later…..thx again
I’d rather have Foster, Tate and Wayne, only because of the appeal for 2013, and Foster might still earn you some good trade value should he get back to action. It’s not that I don’t love Vereen, Hilton and Gordon, but one thing we all have to do, no matter how much we like guys like Gordon, Gio, Hilton, Pierce, Hopkins, etc, etc, etc, is to ensure we aren’t trading these guys in for top dollar, and for players that are atop their positions. These are all players, Hilton, Vereen, Gordon, etc, that can be atop their position, but if you start paying top dollar instead of buying low, you’re going to be left with nothing if injury should strike (ex Le’Veon Bell). Look how awesome Bell looked fantasy wise just weeks ago… high praise from coaches, starter carries, he was a safe lock to be a RB2 just a week ago, heck just days ago… What if Vereen gets hurt, or coaching decisions turns that situation south?
Buy low, sell high, this is not that. Great question, though, and keep up the good thinking and trade ideas! Wayne and a draft pick for Vereen and Hilton would be more sneaky. That may not happen now, as Hilton and Vereen are seeing huge, huge bumps in value, but that’s a deal one could have pulled off all day long months ago when Vereen and Hilton were atop our Upside Board
!!!! So, instead of chasing the player up as his value climbs super high, find the next set of players that have yet to see their increases. Who? Good question, but I think a starting point is our Upside Board. Ball is one player. Yeah, yeah, he is in a RBBC, etc, etc, but aren’t a lot of these reasons the same reasons people waited on Hilton? I can’t tell you how crazy people thought I was months ago regarding HIlton, and how “Heyward-Bey” was a reason Hilton wouldn’t rise to elite stats. Well, things change fast. Buy-low, sell-high.
drafting tomorrow: 12 team, ppr, #10:
1. I know we are rehashing, but if 2 of top 4 wrs are available: draft them (best available player style) but what rbs would target in round 3.10, 4.3
2. or if drafting rbs at 1.10, 2.3: who would you target: Ray Rice, maybe Foster, reach on Lamar Miller?, CJ, McCoy, etc?
extra credit: thought on team name: James Jones of Thrones, The Hunger Games: Catching Dwyer or Kendrick Lamar Miller!
after reading all the articles on draftcalc for the past 2 months; I feel confident things will fall into place, but just want have a “go to pick”: in rd1/rd2: I tried trading up w/ the 5th/7th rd strategy (no good) would’ve loved to trade and grab T-Rich:thx brother
I wouldn’t reach for Miller. As I said on another thread, if taking Miller near players like Rice, Dez and Julio, guys i have inside my top 5-12 overall, you’re really taking away from the ‘upside’ appeal, and you will be forced to have Miller producing top 5-10RB numbers for you to break even on the investment. You don’t want that, you want to draft a RB2 and have him explode to RB1 value, that’s the breakout appeal. I can’t tell you how many times people message me “Hey Smitty, you better be right about Miller, I just took him in the first round!”… my response: “You didn’t listen.”
Don’t grab Miller so high he can’t breakout for you, and has to explode for you to break even.
For the first pick, obviously I rank them somewhere along the lines of:
1. Trent Richarson NO. 1
2. Rice
3. Julio
4(tie). McCoy (ONLY if you handcuff Brown!!!!!!), all great choices. Again, McCoy only if you handcuff him! Miller is a great 3rd if he falls.
4(tie). Matt Forte
.. CJ2K is too high, if you can’t land the above, and I even go WR over McCoy, that means 2 of the top 4WRs will be there, so that’s what I do. It’s risky, and WR/WR isn’t for everyone (know that), but I love it.
If you go WR/WR, runners to target are clearly Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Darren McFadden, CJ2K, not all will fall, but 1-2 should. Shane Vereen is too early there, but he is a great fantasy RB2 for those going WR/WR and need a sneaky RB2 because of it.
Overall, i draft em near what my top 200 shows on the rankings, and best player available
Much obliged! I feel good: its a fun/competive league w/ everyone stealing players from each other…You have continuously stated that upside is great, but it has to be at the played correctly in order to gain proper return on investment. Furthermore, like you said join another league if you want a player just to “have him on a team” but don’t reach! As most fantasy football Savages; another league I have pick #1 and can’t trade down: TR or AP?
*nothing is guaranteed, so I would never hold you accountable for my picks not reaching their high ceiling potential: you lay it out for us to play it out…I am happy I switched to draftcalc; talk about great upside!
Thanks, Biggie! If Redraft, AP is the safe move that high. You almost can guarantee you’ll have a lot of trade options (unless there is no trading in your league, of course). You could maybe pretend you think you’re downgrading in a major way when you approach the TRich owner, and I bet you can get a free TY Hilton or someone like that in a swap? That’s kinda how I make hard decisions like that, as AP is no risky pick in redraft. If Dynasty, Doug Martin is tough to pass up, for trade value, and he is a safe pick. But, i bet you can still do that Martin for TRich and a Hilton type (before Hilton explodes).
Three spot 12 ppr dynasty tomarrow
T rich or aj or dez ???
Three, and of those three, TRich. It’s close, and that’s high risk, but huge reward. AJ Green is low risk, high reward, Dez is a bit high at the 3 spot unless there are keepers kept.
Also, what teams do you think you can build from each, let’s just list the top 3:
1a. AJ Green, Julio Jones, Lamar Miller
1b. AJ Green, Matt Forte, Lamar Miller
or
2a. Trent Richardson, Julio Jones, Lamar Miller
2b. Trent Richardson, Matt Forte, Larry Fitzgerald
I know those are kinda the same, but looking at the core before moving forward, sometimes it helps… I like 2a or 2b myself.
Hey Smitty,
Great job on the site, very useful information.
in a 14 team PPR leauge with 6pts awarded for TDs.
Do you think this is a good start picking from the 7th spot.
Trich, Julio Jones, Lamar Miller?
Or is better to go Trich, Peyton Manning? and also in this format what round would you target Montee Ball? and what QB would you target if you miss out on Peyton Manning, Rodgers or Brees?
Thanks buddy
I love Trich, Julio and Lamar, that’s awesome. Or, Wilson in place of Miller, that could be a touch safer, but I like Miller more, so it’s tough. Both are 1 and 2 on my Upside Board, so clearly I love both. Draft RG3 later, and Cook as well.
Ball should fall to the 5th or 6th now, with all the doubt about him starting, which concerns me zero at that range.
Thanks man,
Yeah I am a member and I see your upside board and you love both Wilson and Miller.
I may go for RGIII in the 5th, although am a bit leery about his injury. In the 5th I will probably have option between RGIII and Andrew Luck. I really wanted TY hilton but if I want Ball in the 6th I don’t know if I can get T.Y.