Who is the No. 1 overall running back heading into 2013 and beyond? Are you thinking CJ Spiller? Or, despite getting older, and regardless of all of the mileage, is Adrian Peterson still your top dog heading into all 2013 start-ups? Look, both players are excellent choices, and even players like Doug Martin, Ray Rice and Arian Foster deserve consideration, but my No. 1 running back in 2013, and my No. 1 overall-ranked player, is Trent Richardson.
Trent Richardson – RB
The “Trent Richardson Show” is scheduled to begin right out of the gate in September! Why do I feel this way? For starters, [level-all]the Browns brought in Norv Turner as the team’s offensive coordinator. Unless you have been living under a rock for the last 20 years, you have at least heard some kind of line here or that suggesting that Norv Turner is good for fantasy running back production. It’s time to review Turner’s track record so that we can better understand what’s in store for Richardson heading into 2013.
Norv Turner has coached three running backs that have led the NFL in rushing, and for a combine five times. Emmitt Smith, Ricky Williams and LaDainian Tomlinson… Smith led the league in rushing in each of the three seasons Turner was with the Cowboys. Smith rushed for 1,563 yards in 1991, 1,713 yards in 1992 and 1,486 yards in 1993; he also rushed for a league-high 18 touchdowns in 1992. Those three seasons ignited Smith’s Hall of Fame career, and of course, he is the NFL’s all-time leading rusher… During LaDainian Tomlinson’s rookie season, Norv Turner was offensive coordinator in San Diego. During his rookie campaign, Tomlinson rushed for 1,236 rushing yards and 10 scores. Tomlinson clearly dominated without Turner for years, but it’s important to note that when Norv Turner returned to San Diego as head coach in 2007, LT2 led the league with 1,474 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns… Ricky Williams had his best season, and only Pro Bowl run, during Turner’s first season as the Dolphins’ offensive coordinator. In 2002, Ricky led the league with 383 carries, 1,853 rushing yards and averaged 115.8 rushing yards per contest; he also scored 16 rushing touchdowns and pulled in 47 receptions for 363 yards. That next season, Ricky led the league in carries once again (392).
And, if all of that above wasn’t enough of a track record, fantasy owners may remember Turner as Frank Gore’s offensive coordinator during Gore’s best-ever fantasy season (2006), where he rushed for 1,695 yards (5.4 avg.) and 9 total touchdowns; That was also the year Gore pulled in his career-high 61 receptions for 485 yards. Let’s keep going… Remember good old LaMont Jordan? This kid was amazing under Norv, as he set career-high marks in carries (272), rushing yards (1,025), rushing touchdowns (nine), receptions (70) and receiving yards (563) during Norv’s final season with the Raiders… as the Redskins’ head coach, Norv coached Terry Allen from 1995-1998, where Allen ran for more than 1,300 yards in back-to-back seasons (in 1995 and 1996); Allen had career-highs in rushes and yards during those two seasons, and he led the league with 21 rushing touchdowns during that 1996 campaign, the only year he made the Pro Bowl… remember three-time Pro Bowler Stephen Davis? Davis was a Pro Bowler under Turner for two of those seasons leading the league with 17 touchdowns and 100.4 rushing yards per game in 1999. Noticing a pattern for elite fantasy rushing numbers?
Well, Richardson is Norv Turner’s new bell cow rusher, and not everyone will agree with me, but I believe that Richardson is every bit as talented as every rusher listed above that isn’t named LaDainian Tomlinson or Emmitt Smith. And, physically, I think he can have a cup of coffee with those guys in the skill set department, but that’s me. So, Norv Turner + elite fantasy rusher should translate into some league-leading stats in 2013. If healthy in 2013, I wouldn’t be shocked one bit if Richardson led the league in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and receptions (for running backs). T-Rich could very well rush for 1,400 yards, pull in 50-60 receptions for 400+ receiving yards and 14+ total touchdowns. Unless you think Norv Turner will be in Cleveland for one season, I predict these kinds of numbers for Richardson for at least 2-4 seasons, and that my friends has this kid as my No. 1 dynasty rusher heading into the future years.
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Was able to buy TRich in my main dynasty which is only 0.33 ppr for McFadden and Cobb before Norv even signed there. Once that news. came out I was very happy with the trade. In a redraft league I would still have to go AP though, doubted him last year. I also have Spiller right ahead of Richardson in ppr
Very nice trade! Keep it up!
I see the same as you Smitty, however, one major stumbling block….staying healthy and on the field for 16 games (at least the first 15 in most of our cases).
It’s a legit concern, sure, but he did play 15 straight games last year and only sat out Week 17. It’s tough to worry too much about him playing 16 games when he proved what he proved with broken ribs last year.
Smitty, in regards to T Rich’s injuries and if he cant stay on the field for games…
If you draft Richardson, would you try to handcuff him with a Browns RB? Or would you just draft a bit more depth at the RB position, and use more mid round picks on some sleeper RBs from other teams.
Seems to me like the back up running back situation in Cleveland is very crowded, with no clear cut #2 rb there. Doesn’t lend itself to a great fantasy situation, should Richardson go down.
At least with runners like Foster, McCoy, Rice or Spiller, they have clear handcuffs who could easily pick up the slack right off the bat.
Once we know who that RB2 is in CLE, he will be a semi-must have. Is that back going to do what Bernard Pierce would do in BAL should he get in the line-up? No way. But, handcuffing is smart if doable, but for now, yes, more depth is better vs. backing up TRich with someone that may not even be the back-up. The CLE back up will be able to be had late, anyway, though.
Gimme AP.
He is yours!
And a fine choice, completely arguable… But I’ll take TRich at 1.02 then 
Smitty — you give Evan Silva the write up for T Rich in his June 150 rankings? haha
9. Trent Richardson — Overblown injury concerns will make him great draft value.
I have Richardson in my Dynasty League. A.Foster and R.Rice, too. I wouldn’t trade Richardson for both of them together.
If you are in the back (pick 8-12) of a draft (12 team snake draft: 16 rounds) what would be a draft strategy to trade up to assure you get TRich? .or would you trade down if you had pick#1?
I trade into 1.05 and feel pretty good about landing him in most leagues. And, if he goes, you could attempt to go AJ Green/Julio Jones… Jones is falling further and further, it’s crazy. At 1.01, I trade down to 1.04 or 1.05, the same range, if I wanted to move my 2nd up, etc. TRich most likely not going to be liked as much in other circles (non DraftCalc circles).
Great Advice: perfect: i know where I need to be to grab him: thanks my man! appreciate it! cant wait to start drafting, but its all about preparing…
Yep, keep using our mock draft tool!
https://draftcalc.com/fantasy-football-mock-drafts/
So what happened with Ryan Mathews while Norv was on his way out? The year before that he did have 1500 yards from scrimmage though, so what happened? I believe Richardson is the next Adrian Peterson, and think this is a guy who’ll turn this Cleveland wasteland around, much like Peterson did for the Vikings. He’s not likely to be as durable as Mr.A.P. but we can always hope. I’m very happy I saw his abilities before he entered the NFL draft, the guy is simply a catapillar bulldozer. Hoping that the NFL rule about lowering the head doesn’t effect his abilities though.
Yeah, not as durable, and will never be as good.. Emmitt, LT and AP, those guys will be tough to ever beat, but for 2-4 years, there is no reason TRich can’t have as good of seasons as anyone has in the league. The lack of longevity will make it hard to compare careers, no doubt, but like Priest Holmes, a player can certainly have 2-3 or even 4 elite seasons like no other before vanishing into the night. As for Ryan Mathews, you can’t make every runner into a stud, but when Norv Turner has a runner like TRich, which again talent wise is as good as any back he has ever coached, watch out.
For the record, I always heard Norv Turner and Sean Peyton were alike in their abilities to coach a quarterback, not a runningback.
Where do you rank TRich, Scorp? Not where would you draft him, but if forced to predict where he finishes, where do you say he lands out of all 2013 RBs?
I’d predict that he lands between 3rd and 6th. I love this kid, but he’s on a pretty bad team that won’t get a lot of leads, and that usually leads to more 3rd downs. I’d be more confident voting Doug Martin up a notch over Richardson, so there’s who I believe has a better chance at taking that #1 spot. In a redraft type of system, I’d have to rank them, A.P./Foster/Martin/Richardson…. etc..
Anything can happen, my friend! I think CLE could play just as well offensively as TB, though, so Doug Martin’s success only fuels my stance. Keep the strong commenting coming, Scorp!
So would t-pain still rank #1 on ur list in a redraft league? Or is this strictly a dynasty post
He is my No. 1 in all formats, however, in redraft leagues, you can get him much later as ADPs are suggesting. So, trading down is advised, because you can get so much more back in a trade.
Wow you just completley convinced me of his status amongst the top of all RBs this year. Nice write up. When you lay it out like that it almost seems obvious. Health is the main concern with me but I may just go for him anyway.
But trade down to at least the 1.03-1.05 if you can, vs drafting him high (as no one is forcing anyone to draft him near the 1.01)!
You have a new, devoted reader Smitty. I finally found an expert with not only the guts and insight to think way outside the proverbial box, but lay his reputation on the line w/o fear of disgrace. For my lone fantasy team, I, like you, went with Trent 1st OA (there was no option to trade down). Right after I made my pick, the harassment started on me, and it didn’t stop until the end of the draft. “What a joke,” – “Now we know who’s finishing in last,” – “idiot” – I heard it all, yet said nothing. Can’t wait for this season to begin. I figure w/75-80% of the carries coming his way (no handcuff) in a Norv Turner O with an underrated O Line and a vastly improved Weeden, TRich haters in ’13 will take him 1st OA in ’14. You the man, Smitty!
Yeah, in those situations, it’s hard not to take the player you think will be No. 1 overall, and if you had drafted AP, let’s say, it’s tough to say if you would have gotten a TON in a 1 for 1 trade later (if your league even allows for trading after the draft). I took TRich at the 1.01 in one draft, and I too heard some comments, or read them rather, but yeah, it’s not a huge reach taking him at 1.06 vs. 1.01. If your league mates thought he was more like the 1.12, I wish that you had a late first-round pick in that draft so that you could have paired him up with a top 3-4WR (maybe you did anyway
).
Thanks for the compliment, here is to TRich making us proud! Feed him, Norv! Feed him!
It’s great the way you respond to each reader. Makes me value your expertise even more. Yeah, I find it hard (at best) to make fair trades of any kind. I just got him and that was that. BTW, coincidentally, I did get a top 3-4WR. You can find him “hanging down by the schoolyard.” – Julio (3.01) Quick rundown with the back-ups in parenthesis:
Luck (Weeden)
TRich, DeMarco (Bradshaw, JRich)
Julio, Tompkins, Hilton (Boldin)
Gates (Myers)
Lions D
SeBass
My only question would be, who did you take in the 2nd, and why did you let him slip to the 3rd
Great job landing Julio!
Thanks again for the compliments.