Ok, so kickoff to the 2013 NFL season is in less than 15 hours, but it’s never too late to buy-low on certain players before their values go through the roof. Below are some of my top Buy-Low Candidates heading into the 2013 Fantasy Football Season! Let’s get to it!
Julio Jones
Julio Jones’ current second-round trade value is just stupid-low, and I am sending out dozens and dozens of last minute offers in an attempt to acquire Jones before he turns into that top 1-3 overall receiver that I firmly believe he will quickly become. Jones is about to take a huge step forward! Buy-low now!
Trent Richardson
Trent Richardson is my [level-all]No. 1 rusher this year. Granted, I didn’t take him at 1.01 unless the league in question had zero opportunity for trading, which is rare in any leagues I play in, so all in all I landed Richardson, on average, in the 1.05-1.08 range, which is such a steal. Norv Turner, a running back guru, is going to turn this kid into a fantasy machine. Worried about Richardson’s health? He played through rib injuries last year, to me he is durable… all of this growing concern about Richardson’s health makes me scratch my head. Precautionary rest during camp? None of that concerns me. Norv Turner backs can catch 50-60 passes for 500+ receiving yards, not to mention they can score well over 10-12 touchdowns. Let me put it this way… if T-Rich doesn’t have 1,300-1,400 rushing yards, 50 receptions for at least 400 yards, and at least 12-14 scores, I’m going to be very disappointed. For a bunch more on this topic, read here. So, this one is pretty obvious… buy-low if you can, Richardson won’t be valued outside of the top 5RBs for very long.
TY Hilton
TY Hilton is one of my favorite players to talk up, because it never fails… someone almost always speaks the name Darius Heyward-Bey to me, as if those two words (yes, one is hyphenated) have anything to do with the probable-rise of TY Hilton. As I said in this week’s Start Bench Advice, worrying about Heyward-Bey hurting Hilton this year is like worrying about the bad guy hurting Jack Bauer in the show “24″. It’s honestly a waste of time, resources and energy even answering such a question. Is Heyward-Bey starting in 2013? Maybe. In fact, it sure sounds like that Indy coaching staff is trying their very best to “technically” offend my boy TY Hilton, but if anyone believes that preseason talk, or even early season depth charts are cemented into place for the long-term, it’s going to be a long season once Hilton gets going! This same stance will be regurgitated below in regards to Montee Ball, so get ready for a repeat performance in a minute! Hilton is special, you can see the talent overflowing on the field every time he hits it. He is a play maker, he is speedy, and he is the team’s deep threat. Most importantly, he and Luck have a tremendous rapport, one that will surely have Hilton getting low-end fantasy WR2-type targets in no time. What does Hilton have to do to prove that all of this “Hilton is the No. 3 receiver in Indy” nonsense is about to become a distant memory? The bottom line is this… during his rookie season last year, he dropped 50 receptions for 861 yards, 7TDs and had five 100-yard games. That was without starting a single game. I know, ‘not starting’ is part of your concern, right? He was a rookie, though. He is entering his second season and is facing a weak and helpless resistance to his climb into the Colts WR2 spot, that’s all this is. All I know is that I love the growing doubt surrounding Hilton, as it only makes him one of the cheapest low-risk breakout receivers heading into 2013. He can be had at low-end fantasy WR3/4 type value, yet he will likely drop high-end fantasy WR2-type numbers in 2013 (and will be even better down the road).
Montee Ball
Montee Ball is another player everyone should be trying to buy-low right now. In redraft, in dynasty, in every league! Buy-low, though, as the doubt is growing and Ball can almost be had as a player that most wouldn’t even consider starting as their flex-option. Could Ball get CJ Spillered this season? Sure, you have to know and accept the risk involved… but, at RB3/4 value, is there really much risk? When the guy has top 5-10RB upside for both the now and the future, I’m ear to ear when it comes to this buy-low opportunity. If Ball doesn’t have a big Week 1, all this advice makes even more sense heading into Week 2, and the “buy-low” opportunity might be even better! Know that as well!
Chris Givens
Chris Givens feels like a big-time breakout heading into 2013. Buy him like a fantasy WR3, which is how most rank the guy; that’s where the value is, in buying him low. Go get him now, as he will most likely, if healthy, earn you fantasy WR3-type value even if he disappoints. He could be a high-end fantasy WR2, if not higher, come season’s end. Think how “out of nowhere” Marques Colston was the year he emerged onto the fantasy scene!
Jared Cook
Jared Cook won’t cost you all that much to acquire via trade, not when you consider that he has top 3-5TE upside this season!
Alshon Jeffery
Brandon Marshall is really concerning me right now with all the reports about his hip not being 100 percent. If Marshall misses time, something that wasn’t hard to imagine a couple years ago (before he shook his injury-prone reputation), Jeffery will be a monster! Don’t count on Jeffery to be more than an exciting flex or bye week option this season, but know his upside is huge if the targets are there for whatever reason.
Julius Thomas
Peyton Manning might turn this underrated tight end into a top 5TE in 2013! Thomas was undrafted in so many leagues! Check waivers!
EJ Manuel
EJ Manuel could very well be the next Russell Wilson, something we know a little bit about given he was last year’s No. 1 Bold Prediction. Buy-low, as with everyone above, as there is no value in buying a player at levels that you expect to be their max value. In your league, this kid is someone’s back-up QB (at best), so it wouldn’t be tough to acquire him, especially if you treat him like a throw-in in some larger deal.
Terrelle Pryor
Terrelle Pryor may never be as good as a Russell Wilson, or EJ Manuel, but fantasy wise, for as long as he starts, he could have some low-end QB1 success. Pick him up and stash him if he is sitting on waivers, I really love the way this guy scores fantasy points!!!
Robert Griffin III
Robert Griffin III is on over 50% of all my rosters, and I play in well over 10 leagues. I drafted him in the 5th- through 7th-round in most leagues, depending on the format, and I firmly believe he will have a cup of coffee with the top 5QBs all season long. RG3 is one of the best buy-low opportunities in fantasy right now!
Eddie Lacy
Eddie Lacy is a player I’ve been rather hard on, calling him a big-time bust candidate, suggesting that he will never make it in this league… Well, I’m not going to suggest I feel good about his long-term value (foot), and we’re talking after about 2-3 years of playing in the pros, but I am starting to really see value here in 2013. Lacy could very well produce solid fantasy RB2-type numbers this year, for as long as he stays on the field. The trick is handcuffing him, and I think, in the end, Jonathan Franklin is the runner to own. Have a guy like CJ Spiller or Matt Forte, but have some holes in your line-up? Consider turning a runner like that into a Lacy/Julio Jones-type combo, as it could prove to be an awesome move down the stretch.
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Hey Smitty,
Need Week 1 advice:
RG3 or Russell Wilson?
Flex spot: RunDMC or Torey Smith?
Thanks!
eggman
I have a similar situation as you this week and I am going with Wilson. In your case, I would wait and see how RGIII does this week coming back from injury before I would lock him in as your starting QB. Good luck eggman!
Oh, I forgot your flex question. I would roll with DMac at flex this week.
I’d have to agree with Doggie, although, RG3 will put Wilson on your bench (I predict) soon enough. Let him shake off the rust, go with the safe play in Wilson, and get ready for a bounce-back season (and some good trade opportunities) in 2013!
McFadden. Contract year could = big-time season.
Hey Smitty what are your thoughts on Newton week 1? Really tough matchup. Big Ben, Pryor and Manuel are free agents. Would you consider a spot start by any of them ahead of Cam this week?
You know, I think this is one of those “you just can’t bench your studs” situation. Unless you have another top 5QB in your pocket, you just don’t bench Newt. Ever. Even on his bye. Ok, maybe during the bye, but that’s it!
Why no Josh Gordon on this buy low list ?
I couldn’t list everyone, the list would go on and on, but I have plenty on Gordon all around the site, plus, he might just be a recommend heading into Week 2
Smitty, would you pick up Julius Thomas to play over Finley, Cook, or Jordan Cameron!? I’m in 6 leagues & have only them as my guys. The worst player on my bench in any of the leagues is Joique Bell, Deandre Hopkins, or Christine Michael….so the only way I could add Julius Thomas would be to straight up replace Finley, Cook, or Cameron with him. What are your thoughts on that?
The rankings will tell ya Cooks is a must own/play. The dude is gonna breakout big-time this season if he can stay healthy. Surprisingly, I like Thomas over Finley, but that’s bold, most would likely disagree – for now. Cameron is another top 5-10 caliber TE, so you’re talking about a grip of solid producers. But, Cook is the No. 1 of this group, if you ask me, then Thomas, then Cameron, then Finley, and those last three are all real close, and match-up dependent when deciding between the three. So, as for dropping one of the three, toss a coin, then toss it again. Finley could be huge, but then again he has failed already. For some reason I think Manning is going to use Thomas more than Rodgers is going to use Finley, but that’s, as I said, a bold take. The safe move is leave Thomas on waivers, but I’d be real tempted to pick up Thomas for Finley. .
Well said. By the way, I gotta say…….about the ONLY THING that could make me like this site even more than I already do (& very quickly I might add), is a reference to something outside of football that I love, which you have done ALREADY! 24 is one of my all-time favorite shows, so, you’ve just bumped up even that much higher on my list of cool people, lol. Na, but really, that was an awesome mix-in, love it!
Thanks. Can’t wait for 24 to come back, which it is in 2014!
I’m in a dynasty league ($250 budget) and thinking about trading Cecil Shorts ($13) & Mike Williams ($8) for T.Y. Hilton ($13) straight up.
I have Dez Bryant as my WR1 and Emmanuel Sanders (who I like) on the bench.
Smart move?
I like Hilton more than both, even both together. Absolutely.
I wonder how many benches Orange Julius is on. He is on mine.
oh yeah and I started him in one of my free leagues too.
He was mentioned above for a reason, dude is sick!
Smitty-
I’m in a league where we only start two rbs and 3 WR. Right now I have:
Gore
Sproles
Le’Veon
Hunter
Pierce
and Knowshon
If the guy in my league will take Le’Veon for Montee Ball straight up do I pull the trigger and wait for the broncos backfield to sort itself out? I’m really debating it hard. I feel like I could sell higher on Le’Veon than that. Basically what are your thoughts on Le’Veon right now? Should I pull the trigger on that or aim higher and try to get Eddie Lacy or someone like that?
I think it’s close. I’m not going to lie, I’m disappointed about Montee’s week 1 outing, but as I’ve said from the start, anyone can get Spillered and Ball could be “Spillered” and not given the playing time his talent commands for the entire season. What I will say is that Ball is a beast once he gets in that “starter’s carries” role. When will that be? It’s tough to say, but it did seem like Denver wanted to use Ball a ton down the stretch, so that’s a positive. Bell is coming back from injury, and could be back in Week 2, 3 or 4, he says week 2 but we shall see. Given you need help now, it’s not a horrible move to go Bell, but it’s a move that “could” bite you later, if Ball eventually gets that shot. Will he? Look at David Wilson. I was early on Wilson. It happens. Sometimes you can’t expect coaches to play their best players. Wilson fumbled early on last year and it cost him starter’s carries all season long. Was I wrong about Wilson? Clearly not when we look at talent, everyone and their mother has Wilson ranked as a low-end RB1 right now, but in the end, I called it early last year. I had Wilson exploding as a rookie. It never happened. Is Ball in the same shoes? He could be, but with Moreno, maybe you roll the dice and wait on him? Tough call. I’d guess most would say keep Bell, and I’m on the fence given your line up. Take this one to the forums?
Smitty quick question. In a league where I just traded my 2nd 3rd and 4th round pick for the 3rd overall pick of draft and a 6 th and 7th rounder. I know it’s a little crazy but wanted to do something different….it’s a ppr league and 6 pts for all Tds including QBs. My actual pick is 9th so I was looking to take Manning after yesterday’s performance at 3 and take T Rich at 9….
figure at least this week can’t lose with Manning…lol
Would u take Calvin vs T rich. My next pick is not to 5th round so I’m hoping to see givens, Gordon, Hilton…..not sure what other RBs will b there
Thx a lot
Jim
I venture to say that Manning goes 1.01 or 1.02, good luck getting him if everyone knows they get his 70 point or so game in a 6points per TD format. I take him at 3 no question, though, given that format and given you will get handed about 70 points. I like TRich there, yes…. at 9. Givens might be a touch early in the 5th.
Yeah, not sure I love the depth you’re going to have, it’s going to be tough creating a well rounded team with the surrendering of your 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Thoughts on trading back down and grabbing a Lamar Miller and Julio Jones vs using the 9 on TRich or Calvin?
Thx a lot …that’s not a bad idea….appreciate the advice….manning will b there. The 1st 2 guys already put picks through…..I do love the 70 points…lol
Thx again!!!
Yeah, in a 6pt per TD, it’s not a bad move, but you will be hurting bad at RB1 and RB2 and WR2 if you go T-Rich, and you will be hurting very bad at RB1 and RB2 if you go Calvin/other WR.
Manning, Calvin, Gio Bernard… that’s the roster you’re headed for… great start, then it gets real thin.
Manning, TRich… Nicks…. I love Hilton, if you can land a Nicks or someone like him in the 5th, this strategy might workout ok without trades, but you will need a Gio Bernard, a doubted Montee Ball in the 7th if he falls that far, or even the 8th the way his early value is shaking out…. I think if you go TRich, and can land a Gio/Nicks, you’ll do fine.
Name another site out there that boldly had Julius Thomas as a top 5-8 TE heading into week one? I’m a broncos fan and even I didnt see that one coming! One of the many reasons I love this site!
Thanks, hank! Much appreciated.
Hey Smitty,
Given Julius Thomas’ breakout game, I was curious if you would spend a #3 waiver claim on him. Cook is currently my starting TE, and this is a non-ppr league.
If so, who would you drop:
My Bench: Harvin, Patterson, Hopkins, Ball, Moreno.
I was thinking of dropping Patterson.
Thanks!
Well, as mentioned above, he is a top 5TE of mine, so he shouldn’t have been available
. But, yes, grab him! I love Cook, but he is an upside guy we’re still waiting on proving us right.. .Thomas was that, but now he is proven, so Thomas might be your new starter, but doubt you get him with the NO. 3 claim to be honest, but surely try!
If Redraft, I think I drop Patterson (unless it’s a return yardage league), yep. Or, Hopkins. I love Hopkins, but in redraft, either rookie could start slow, the trick is picking the right one (or one that will start slow). I don’t like dropping any of those guys, but you gotta try for Thomas. Dude is elite and a must-start now.
Thank you, Smitty for having Orange Julius on your top 10 list. Picked him up in my 14 team draft…was last team to pick a TE. Even my Yahoo! draft report card was making fun of me! Now I look like a genius! Sweet.
You know it, bro! Nice job rolling with JT!!!
Smitty, would you drop Cook for Thomas? I can’t afford to drop anybody else. Thanks.
Thomas is pretty safe, and even if Cook could be better, Thomas might be the safest TE play moving forward past Jimmy Graham (and I’m saying this because Gronk is not yet currently healthy – even then, Thomas would be the third safest TE play moving forward). Cook is right there, though, in terms of upside, though, know that if he goes off. It’s a tough call.
Great advice Smitty, Have Orange Julius on three teams but did not start him
would you trade Broyles for Pierce?
thanks Smitty
Absolutely I’d make that trade for Bernard Pierce.