Ok, it’s time to dig into some players that are both “On the Rise” and “On the Decline”. Below I will list a player that is either increasing in value, or decreasing in value; then I will speak to the value change and let you know whether I agree or disagree with the change.
- Has LeVeon Bell lost his shot at ever becoming a top 8-14 RB?
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Not so fast!
Le’Veon Bell
Look, there is nothing good about an emerging rookie suffering a Lisfranc injury, and there is still some uncertainty around whether or not Bell will have surgery or not, or how long he will be out in either scenario. That said, if you already own Bell, it’s not time to panic in redraft, and it’s especially not time to panic in dynasty. While it’s a huge bummer the guy is on the shelf, and it’s not unreasonable, even in the non-surgery scenario, to count him out even half a season, but why sell-low? Why send him packing for players you will never even start, or 2nd-round picks in future rookie drafts? If you own Bell, sit and wait. The Steelers believe in the youngster, and his injury doesn’t change the fact that if healthy, Bell could still easily turn into a low-end fantasy RB2. His ability to stay healthy is now something that surely needs to be factored into his current value, and the chance that either Isaac Redman or Jonathan Dwyer carve out a longer-term role also needs to be built into Bell “to-date” value… but missing half a season doesn’t absolutely spell bust. Look at players like CJ Spiller… Spiller hasn’t been his team’s starter yet, and he is entering his fourth NFL season. That’s nuts when you think about it, and clearly the Buffalo Bills organization doesn’t follow anything I write (as I’ve screamed for two-straight years that Spiller was a top 5RB)… my point is, completely writing off an incoming rookie, or suggesting that all long-term upside is gone, after a season-altering injury, well, that’s just knee-jerk reaction-type stuff right there.
That brings me to my next point… it’s time to buy-low if you are in a dynasty league and do not own Bell. Don’t overpay, just take a stab at acquiring the runner on the cheap. How cheap? Well, how cheap is, let’s say, Marcus Lattimore, another high-upside player that will miss at least half the season? Would you give up a TY Hilton or Shane Vereen for Lattimore (or Bell)? Absolutely not, right? You better not! If you answered yes, you better go back and read our Upside Board! How about a Mark Ingram, who is seeing an uptick in value as of late? How about a Rashard Mendenall, or maybe Reggie Wayne? These are the types of players that may just land you the now-undervalued Le’Veon Bell, even if you have to throw in a future second-round rookie draft pick.
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- Giovani Bernard is on the DraftCalc Upside Board, he is now a fantasy RB2, right?
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Not so fast!
Giovani Bernard
Whenever a player cracks the Upside Board, as Gio Bernard just did, we usually see a spike in forum threads on that player, and we usually see people begin reaching way too high for that player in drafts occurring after the “Upside Board” addition. The upside of drafting Gio is acquiring him as your super-sleeper flex, or fantasy RB3… or RB4 if you can! Drafting Gio too high, and I’m talking well above his ADP, or at fantasy RB2-type value, is not smart. He is not even starting yet! He may eventually, and at that point he will have big-time value, but as of now, one cannot reach! If you’re excited about him and might miss out on owning him because your draft slots don’t line up near his ADP, start another league! If seeing his name on the Upside Board makes you want to trade a total stud for him, read the “Upside Board” again! The value in Bernard is as that player that you draft that ‘explodes’ from his ADP/fair market value. I do believe that he will eventually be a fantasy RB2, but as evidence by the quick fall of Le’Veon Bell this week, things can change in a snap for these unproven players – draft and invest smart!
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- Recent reports suggest Lamar Miller could be sharing carries this year… time to worry?
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Not so fast!
Lamar Miller
First off, no one should be drafting Lamar Miller at a draft slot that doesn’t have growing pains built into it. Round three is the earliest anyone should be drafting Lamar Miller. If you are drafting him in the first- or even second-round, you’re taking him way too high, and you’re limiting his ability to explode from your initial investment level. At third-round value, a slow start would allow Miller to earn back value equivalent to your initial investment level… and if/once he explodes and turns into a top 5-10 running back, well, that’s when you clean up and ride the Dolphin into your fantasy playoffs! Do I think Miller will start off slow? No, I don’t buy any of the recent reports that have Daniel Thomas beating Miller out, or any reports that suggest Thomas is so dominating he is forcing the team to think RBBC heading into 2013. Bring it! I love the emerging doubt, maybe it will force his ADP down into the late third- or early fourth-round in my upcoming fantasy football drafts! That right there would increase his 2013 upside even more. It’s all about the upside! Always!
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- Is it time to give up on Montee Ball?
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Not so fast!
Montee Ball
If you really think Montee Ball’s career path is already cemented into place, or that the story is already written due to early struggles, I have a bridge to sell you. I refer you to the above comment I made that speaks to this season being CJ Spiller’s first real season as his team’s starter (his fourth year in the league)! I’m not trying to say that the Broncos are going to “fantasy practice squad” the guy like Buffalo’s foolish coaching staff did with Spiller (for three seasons!!!), but the example goes to show that knee-jerk reactions can do two things… 1) Cause fantasy owners to miss out on identifying future stars, 2) Allow crafty owners to see through the smoke. Even in redraft formats, the risk in drafting Ball is low and the upside is extremely-high. Multiply that a couple times in dynasty formats. News wire-driven doubt is good regarding Ball.
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- Eddie Lacy no longer looks like an injury risk?
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Not so fast!
Eddie Lacy
I admit, he looks good this preseason, and some preseason reports have suggested that his foot isn’t a huge concern for the future. That said, other sources disagree, and given his weight and big frame, I am, and will remain, cautiously-optimistic when it comes to Lacy for both 2013 and beyond. Again, reports are conflicting, but whenever I hear that someone’s bad foot won’t last long at the NFL level, I invest with caution. That said, is there a way to minimize the risk to a point where even I, a big-time doubter, would draft Lacy? Yep! Handcuff him to Jonathan Franklin and I have no more concerns. That Green Bay offense is potent, and whatever runner lines up behind Rodgers will thrive. Having both runners almost guarantees some very underrated fantasy RB2-type production in 2013!
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great article smitty as always keeping us inform thanks for the info
You know it!
“Once in a while you get shown the light
In the strangest of places if you look at it right.” I have never been more prepared for my drafts…thank you
Thanks, Biggie!
Quick guestion…im in a 12tm ppr keeper league and I have a few choices. Do I keep either Foster Spiller or Green? It seems from your site i should be keeping Spiller? I won both of my leagues last yr thanks to this site btw. Thx.
Thanks, benny. Glad you are here at DC!
You can’t go wrong with either Spiller or Green. Where is your draft slot? That could help determine this. Also, do you have to write him into a draft slot, or do you guys just excluded kept players and start the draft as normal. And again where is your draft slot, that’s the key here!
Smitty better option, im trying to trade up from my 8th overall spot to a higher 1st round pick if possible. As you know im keeping dez in the 4th. The guy with trent richardson isn’t going to keep him in 2nd, putting him back in the draft pool. Is it still better value to keep dez in 4th over trent in 2nd. He wants something like trent and one of my draft picks like a 5th or 6th round pick, and we switch spots in the first round i move up to 5th spot in the 1st round over the 8th spot in the 1st round, is it even worth it. in the 5th spot i would have a shot at martin, rice, foster, mccoy, charles. So i would pair say Rice and Richardson 1st and 2nd and gets picks in every round but what ever round i give him. I hate losing a draft pick though and keeping dez in the 4th and still having my draft picks seem like a good option.
Can’t you keep Dez in the 4th, and still move your No. 8 up to get TRich? If you can land TRich from the 8th, and a Julio in the 2nd (not sure if you are saying TRich will fall to the 8th)… TRich, Julio ___, Dez, that’s quite an amazing start, better than any other scenario you’ve described IMO. Even if you have to trade that 8th up a bit to get TRich, I’d consider it. Or, if you think he callas and you’re concerned about a Julio, or someone as good as him, falling to your 2nd, I’d consider trading your 2nd up using a 7th or 8th, not so sure I’d trade a 5th or 6th… definitely not the 5th. Honestly, I highly doubt I’ll ever tell you not to keep Dez in the 4th. Use your awesome drafting to get ahead, don’t trade into higher spots and keep players closer to their ADP, that will kill your advantage here. Try to somehow land TRich, Julio, (keep your 3rd), Dez, that’s sick.
Smitty, i just made a trade. I moved up from 8th spot in 1st round to 1st pick overall the deal was swap picks 1 – 2 -4. So i move from 17th overall to 24th in 2nd round and in the 4th from 41 to 47. Since im keeping dez in the 4th i now have the last pick in the 4th round but it doesnt matter because dez is being kept. So huge advantage right i move from 8th to 1st and only give up 17th to go to 24th. Now since peterson is a keeper and so is spiller going to draft martin or richardson 1st, 2nd round pick, 3rd round pick, dez. Since i pick later in the 2nd wont get julio now but can still grab like a larry fitz in 2nd and miller or wilson in 3rd ??? so richardson / martin, fitzgerald, miller/wilson , dez, sound like a plan
Sounds like a great plan, and nice trade. Great way to give someone something (the 4th round move up/down) without it costing you. Great move. I like the players you suggested, and Martin/TRich is close. I have TRich as the No. 1, but Martin is right there with him, so if Martin feels safer, by all means grab him. I do wonder if you’d be able to trade your 2nd rounder up so you could snag Julio, but do not give up anything crazy. Nothing before round 6 or 7, as Fitz isn’t too far off. Just a thought, but be smart with that piece, as you don’t want to destroy the momentum you just created with these moves and decisions.
Smitty, 10 team standard yahoo redraft
MATT RYAN
BIG BEN
T RICH
L MILLER
D WILSON
GIO
DEZ
FITZ
D. HOPKINS
BRITT
BRAYLON
J COOK
O DANIELS
GOSTOWSKI
CINCY D
What u think smitty ? ive always been in 6pt passing td leagues this is my first 4pt standard
Nice squad. Can’t argue with Trich and Dez, top 1-3 players at their positions, and Miller and Wilson, and Gio, all big-time breakouts and the draft slots you got them at are so low risk they earn their value even if they don’t turn into the stars that we think they will turn into. Britt is a nice WR3!!! Love the Cook pick. Very good job.
Also, you may want to consider using your depth, like Gio for example, to upgrade Ryan into a Cam or Rodgers. Just a thought, and you don’t need that to compete, this team is rock solid. If Gio gains crazy value, though, which could happen, it’s something to consider.
ya i took fitz in the 3rd and missed cam by 2 picks in the 4th so went l. miller , d. wilson and waited on Ryan..5 more drafts next week, ill try not to bug you with all 5, lol or who knows maybe i might, u did help me go 1,1,3,4 last year :)…thanks for the quick response as always much appreciated
No prob!
Smitty, based on your last response. im thinking now of a trade so i can land julio in the 2nd since im last pick of the 2nd should i offer to one of the guys with early 2nd round pick to swap they get my 2nd round pick and my 6th pick to land julio and start out with richardson / martin , julio , 3rd round pick , dez. There is a chance in 1 player keep julio goes in 1st but doubt it. I shouldnt offer my 5th right thats my ideal qb round just in case. In my mocks Newton keeps coming up in the 3rd if i can get him him there should i do it or wait for a stafford, luck, rg3 , kaepernick 2-3 rounds later. I like the idea of a martin , fitz, newton, dez to start, Are u any higher on r bush after the last pre season game i here he is moving up in ppr leagues??
Smitty, also, newton in 3rd or like r wilson in 5-6 ??? If i draft newton im losing out on alot of good player like miller and d wilson etc. All tds are worth 6 so no bonus for newton rushing tds like the same as any other passing does that down grade him a little in this format
In 6 point per TD formats, Cam still ranks with those top 1-4, but it does make Rodgers way more valuable this year than he is in leagues that award just 4 points per TD. Well, it makes all of the big 5 more valuable. Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Cam, all honestly have late 2nd round value in such a format. I would go Julio if possible, though. Martin, Rodgers, Fitz, Dez, that’s another option. Or, TRich, Rodgers, Lamar Miller, Dez, that’s another. Neither are better than the other, it all depends on who you land with the next picks, that will prove which was a better approach, and unfortunately we can’t predict what players will fall.
Ultimately, you come away with a team like either of these, you should be happy, and either is fine, it’s going to be hard to give you for sures on players to take in the 3rd and 5th given we don’t know the flow of the draft:
Martin (or TRich), Julio (or Rodgers or Marshall or Forte or Fitz), Lamar Miller (or Fitz or Cam or Demaryius), Dez
Giving the 6th straight up for that 2nd round move up is a lot. Maybe a 7th? That would still allow you to create a good line up.
As for the rest, it really is personal preference and one can build a winning team with Luck later, or Kaep, or Cam in the 3rd. Saying one is better than the other, I just can’t. So much depends on the flow of the draft. Past what we’ve talked about, it’s tough to say to do one thing or another, or to take this guy in the 3rd and this guy in the 5th, etc. Flow of the draft means everything.
All in all, I like what you did, no doubt, and Cam in the third isn’t bad, but I’d rather have Lamar Miller, Matt Fotre (should he fall), Demaryius Thomas (should he fall), then yeah, QB isn’t bad if one of the big 4-5 fall. Wilson later is solid as well, there are no for sure answers on this front.
Smitty, my dude ! Just got offered trent richardson a keeper in the 2nd for my 2nd spot and my 4th round pick I can try and give him a 6th or 7th. If i did that I would start out with 1st Martin 2. Richardson , 3rd round, etc. Is that smarter than keeping dez in the 4th and not losing any rounds ???? I still have 1st pick so i love the martin dez to start not losing any draft pics but I could get martin and richardson is kind of nice.. I just dont want to lose a high value round, thoughts? Trying to get julio and trade up to high 2nd round pick let u know
As I said above, Dez in the 4th man! That’s where the value is! That’s a 2 round advantage. Your team will rock any way you build from this combo:
1st – Martin (or TRich)
2nd – Julio (or Rodgers or Marshall or Forte or Fitz)
3rd – Lamar Miller (or Fitz or Cam or Demaryius)
4th – Dez
Moving your 2nd up using a 7th or so would be solid, for a 6th, maybe not as Fitz or some players landing in the late 2nd may be very good (Forte, Rodgers, or players like that, etc).
Smitty I really appreciate your patience with me , I really want to win , you answer all my questions and I know you have a ton of stuff to do. I will be a lifetime member. I am sorry that I bug you with these questions but your the best and Im so competitive I can’t even lose in fantasy football so I want to do everything right. I am the head wrestling coach of a team in NJ. Never played football but am addicted to this stuff. Looking at what you said I guess I really didn’t figure in all the keepers, 12 keepers really changes things and looking at the cbs adp, my 2nd round I pick 24th but with so many keepers gone the guys left will be newton, brady, cobb, fitzgerald, d wilson, and l miller all those guys listed forte, rodgers, julio will all be gone by my 2nd round pick because of keepers
No prob, buddy. Yeah, it really makes it tough to say “take this guy” with so many keepers written into draft slots. I think you have the right plan. Stay where you’re at unless an easy-call move up falls into your lap.
thats why i was thinking go martin 1st , richardson 2nd through a trade but lose a later round. It gets so ugly at rb by the 3rd which is really the 4th because of keepers, which looks better
1st Martin 2 Richardson 3 Cobb 4 Ball (Flex)
1st Martin 2 Fitzgerald 3 Miller or D Wilson 4 Dez 5 do have a shot at ball because he ranked so poorly on cbs. They have Miller at 28th, Ball at 56
Let me ask you this. If you threw Dez back and didn’t keep him as a 4th, would you consider drafting him with your 1.08 when you had it? The answer is probably yes, because he is almost that good in a fresh draft where no one is kept. If you’d take him that high, why wouldn’t you keep him as a 4th. If you keep Dez as your 4th, you can compete with the teams you have previously projected (based on keepers). If you throw Dez back (instead of keeping him as a 4th), you would what, draft him back losing that free pick? That’s my point, keeping Dez is the only option. Team 2, Martin, Fitz, Miller Dez!
Smitty,
Keeper League question for you. I’m in a 12 team – 3 player keeper league and my keepers are Calvin, Charles, and Morris. Not all that bad! I’ve been offered a 2nd and 6th rounder for Morris. (Keep in mind the 3 keepers, so this is technically rounds 5 and 9 for him). Not only would I get these draft picks but I would need to keep another guy, and the next guy up on my roster is D Wilson!. Do I keep the Morris or trade him for the 2nd and 6th rounders (which would result in D Wilson as my 3rd keeper)?
That’s tough.. Can you give me 3-4 names per pick that you think could be available at each pick?
2nd round pick candidates:
Lacy, Bernard, Ball, Vereen, Nelson, Wayne, Antonio Brown, Shorts.
6th round pick candidates: It’s tougher to predict this round but these players could be available – BTate, Ingram, Cook, Finley, Cameron, M Floyd, Patterson, E Sanders).
So the trade could very well end up being Morris for Ball/Cook/D Wilson (I include Wilson because I am gaining him as a keeper if I do this trade, so there is added value there).
So Wilson
+
… one of Ball or Vereen, or Gio or Lacy
+
… one of Cook, E Sanders, Patterson, maybe even a Givens?
Yeah, I take that trio over Alfred all day long. Wilson is high risk, but huge reward. Vereen or Lacy or Gio alone could help salvage anything that could go wrong with Wilson, especially if you also get a Cook… and if you land Wilson, if he is as good as we think he is, you hit a home run here.
My question earlier was asking basically do I keep Foster or Spiller? The league is set up where the top 6 tms from last yr get a keeper…so I would draft 1st and have to keep a guy from my squad then have the 12th pick after my keeper.Im leaning toward keeping Spiller over Foster what do you think? My draft is tmrw thx.
If you read all over the site, Spiller has big question marks. He is a great buy low right now in dynasty, but that’s because he is being treated like a late second rounder, or early third rounder in dynasty formats. In some, at least. Spiller is a top 1-5 overall player in all formats, dynasty or redraft, so this isn’t even close IMO, and probably a lot of people’s opinions.