- 1. How good can the 2013 rookie runners be this year?
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Montee Ball
Of course I love Montee Ball, you can read all about that here and here… there is a lot of negative buzz floating around news wires right now regarding Ball, things like “Ball will have to fight for carries”, or “he may not start Week 1″, or “he doesn’t pass protect well enough”… I’m not worried. Seriously. If you expect Ball to just be anointed the starting running back job in Denver, you could be disappointed. Could it take him 2-3 weeks to really have a kung-fu grip on starter-type carries? Absolutely! Can Ball still be a top 10RB even if he doesn’t get handed 20 carries per game right out of the gate? Yes, and he can still be a strong fantasy RB2 along the way… Use the doubt to your advantage draft- and trade-wise, as this growing doubt lowers the risk significantly… draft Ball as a low-end fantasy RB2 and prepare for what could very well be fantasy RB1-type numbers… is there risk? Yes, if you draft Ball as a fantasy RB1, or count on RB1-type numbers. Don’t do that! You don’t need to value him that high, and you don’t want to!
LeVeon Bell
LeVeon Bell is a beast-in-the-making, and hopefully all of you dynasty leaguers out there acted based on our early advice on the guy, which has stood strong since roughly January! Bell was our No. 2 overall rookie behind Ball since roughly January and we never flinched. That was before some sites, writers and fantasy owners even considered him a top five rookie rusher. Some didn’t even have him that high! Well, news is starting to break on the kid and he is on-the-rise in speedy fashion, and that Steelers’ coaching staff won’t make it any easier on those wanting to invest in Bell in the coming weeks and month (as Bell is impressing that Steelers’ coaching staff more and more each day). He is a high third-round talent if it comes to that, so know that if you see his ADP rise to such levels… he can earn that value with ease. He can be a top 5-10 fantasy rusher, something I have had on our Upside Board for months and months… don’t take him ahead of his ADP, that is just bad fantasy management. Very bad! Use ADPs to your advantage, and when the time comes, but only if it comes, don’t hesitate to make Bell your third-drafted player, especially in dynasty formats!
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- 2. Who will be On-The-Rise soon?
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LeVeon Bell
As mentioned above, LeVeon Bell will soon be on the rise, even more than he is now… look for that!
Julio Jones
Also, keep an eye on Julio Jones… his ADP is falling for some odd reason. He was a high second-round pick in a lot of very early 2013 fantasy football mock drafts, but recently he has been slipping into the bottom of the second-round, which is an absolute steal. Julio Jones is a top 8 overall player in my eyes, but as the theme goes (like up above), you cannot pay that kind of price, though, or you’re killing the “return on the investment”! Jones can help win you a league at 2.10-2.12-type value, so don’t blow it and reach for him unnecessarily! If he climbs back into top 12ish overall ADP range, of course he is worth that high of a grab, but the ability to completely explode from his ADP changes a bit from the top of the second down to the bottom of the second… If you are in a dynasty league, try trading for Jones now before it’s too late, because after even one big-time preseason play (think back to last year when this happened), Julio’s value will go through the roof! He could catch just one 80-yard touchdown and all of the sudden he is a lock in the top 8-12!
Shane Vereen
Shane Vereen, a sleeper of mine since January, is already on-the-rise, but get ready for a big bump in ADP with some solid preseason play. Right now, Vereen can still be grabbed as a flex-like player, or very, very low-end RB2/3… this is going to be a steal in hindsight, and soon I think he could start getting taken near some names we never expected him to get drafted next to! Trade for him now in all dynasty leagues!!!
Johnathan Franklin
Johnathan Franklin is yet another one of our super sleepers making the news as of late. It’s always a shame when players we like rise too fast, it’s happening with so many of our “once-thought-to-be” crazy predictions (like Lamar Miller, for exmaple). Eddie Lacy is not impressing so far in camp, and there are all kinds of reports suggesting that he is in awful shape. Toss in the fact that he is a huge injury risk, especially for the long-term, and Franklin screams “stash and hope he plays”! He screams it! If drafted to start on draft day, Franklin would be a lock in most everyone’s top 3 rookies heading into 2013. Lacy’s presence is good for everyone that wants to buy- and draft-low, though!
DeAndre Hopkins
This is the next Cris Carter in terms of hands! Mark it down! He is very underrated from a redraft standpoint, as he could truly crank out fantasy WR3-type numbers in 2013, but no one seems to see his fantasy WR1-type potential coming!
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- 3. Who are some good players to stash for later on in the year?
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T.Y. Hilton
There seems to be a lot of negative T.Y. Hilton buzz floating around news wires right now, most suggesting he is the No. 3 wide receiver in Indy entering 2013, and that he will be fighting for targets. Some of this is true. It is. However, this is good, especially for those of you yet to draft in a dynasty league, or for those of you looking to trade for Hilton on the cheap. Hilton is dynamic, and he is going to be a stud if you ask me. Keep him off the field in two receiver sets for 2-3 games, big deal. Even 4 games, I’m still not concerned. I could care less, as he is explosive enough to pull in two receptions for 90 and a score during any given contest, and I believe that talent will win-out in this situation (in the long run). Use his decreased value to your advantage in all scenarios!
Marcus Lattimore
He may not play in 2013, and he may just play spot duty in the last 3-5 weeks of the 2013 NFL season, but I like Marcus Lattimore in even redraft leagues (late, of course!). Gore, who has a grip of mileage on his tires, could suffer injury late in the year, thus forcing Lattimore to explore his progress and health. Predicting injury is tough, I’m not saying Gore is any kind of lock to get hurt in 2013, but his mileage makes for an interesting situation, and in redraft leagues, Lattimore may surprise! Clearly I love his dynasty value, so investing in him in dynasty/keeper formats is a no brainer!
Marvin Jones
This is a very, very deep sleeper, and he may do well even if AJ Green stays healthy all year. But, if something did happen to (earmuffs, Green owners!) Green, I think this kid would step up nicely, at least as a strong fantasy WR3.
Alshon Jeffery
It’s tough to predict when Alshon Jeffery will become a beast, as Brandon Marshall has a lot left in the tank, and I’m not so sure Jay Cutler can produce two elite receivers at the same time… that said, “beast” Jeffery will likely be in time, know that! Act on that and buy- and draft-low!
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- 4. Who is the next Jimmy Graham?
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Jared Cook
For those of you that have followed my advice for years and years, well, you probably remember me pimping an unknown tight end named Jimmy Graham… I was even a year early on calling his breakout. Past Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez (of course that chapter is now closed), there haven’t been any Graham-like emergences for some time. Well, that could all change with emergence of Jared Cook, a tight end that I feel could be as good as both Gronk and Graham. Now, the downside, if there is any, is that Cook doesn’t have either Drew Brees or Tom Brady throwing to him; however, Sam Bradford is better than most think. I once called him an emerging top 5-10 fantasy QB, but bad coaching and a lack of talent really put a pause on Bradford’s evolution. With Tavon Austin ready to stretch the field, and with an underrated running attack led by three very crafty rushers (and one should emerge in time), the stage would be set for Bradford to take that next step even if Cook wasn’t now in St. Louis! Cook is a slot receiver trapped in a Jimmy Graham-type frame, and he will play slot, tight end, he will be all over the field in 2013! The crazy part? No one is buying into his breakout potential, as he remains an 8th- to 10th-round pick according to fresh ADP Data. Take advantage of this, as he can earn that value even on a disappointing season! I don’t think he will disappoint, though, I think he explodes!
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- 5. List a QB, RB and WR that could shockingly be top 5-10 at their position this year?
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Quarterback
At quarterback, Sam Bradford, but I admit it’s tough to draft him to start given how deep the QB pool is right now from a fantasy perspective. Draft him as your back-up, sure, and provide yourself all kinds of trade options if he works out!
Running Back
Semi-big names include Matt Forte and Darren McFadden. Middle-round names include Montee Ball, LeVeon Bell, David Wilson and of course Lamar Miller, my biggest breakout candidate of all entering 2013! Late-round names include Shane Vereen, Bernard Pierce (buy-low now, and he arguably should be listed above in the “stash” section) and Johnathan Franklin. Even toss Isaiah Pead in the mix!
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton and Josh Gordon come to mind, both have elite skill sets and are set to breakout in 2013!
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- 6. Who are your favorite doubted players in 2013?
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Robert Griffin III
Easy. Robert Griffin III is doubted in both redraft and dynasty right now. I firmly believe he will quickly return to top 1-3 fantasy QB form, maybe as early as this year! Draft him to start in redraft formats, and don’t be afraid to reach a touch past his 6th- to 7th-round redraft ADP (just to ensure you land him). He is a third- to fourth-round stud in dynasty, but use dynasty ADPs to your advantage, but know that he is still a steal in that range in dynasty if you feel you have to reach. Sometimes reaching is ok, especially when you get well past that 4th-round, reaching impacts your return a lot less… I love RG3 and his future; I’m trying to acquire him now in every dynasty league I’m in!
Others
I’m hopeful that doubt will continue to grow regarding Montee Ball, David Wilson and T.Y. Hilton. Although, I wish I could say the same about Lamar Miller (even though most still call me crazy for predicting top 5RB numbers out of Miller in 2013).
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Great article and provides an extra ounce of confidence for the upcoming season. Just completed a cookie league redraft and was able to pull this off:
RWilson, Tannehill
Spiller, DWilson, Miller, Ball
Bowe, Hilton, Gordon, VBrown, Hopkins
Housler, Myers, Kelce
6 of these guys are included in your article!
Awesome stuff Smitty!
Nice work, thedude. Great looking squad. Almost too much RB power, you could turn one into a second-round like WR. Buy low on Julio now!!!
I could do that but it is a start 1-3 RB, 1-3 WR. I think this give me lots of options especially if some of these WR really hit. I will take a look at what it might take to get Julio. Thanks!
Wow, that changes things, and is even better for ya. Nice. If all four backs blow up, though, it would pretty sweet to see you with a Julio in that line-up, though, but I hear ya.
good job nice team
I am new to your website and I generally start drafting teams in June. I was able to (and did) land Ball and Bell in very late rounds and could have in done it in all if them. Also Vereen was spot on and cheap early. I know their story has yet to be written but these guys are very sought after in the trading circuit if I choose to deal them. TY Hilton is dropping like a rock with the DHB talk and I am snatching him up cheap. Thanks for the early help. The other sites are afraid to go out in a limb. I am done with them.
Ps Britt is on every team if mine.
Great job, Lock! Glad to have you here on DC!
That Marvin Jones, deep sleep pick is gold. Bengals fans watched him take on a small role as a rookie, where he showed great hands, size, and speed. The tri-fecta for a wide receiver!
He is a good looking prospect isn’t he? Hawkins is a good receiver as well, Dalton could have a shockingly good season. If only the Bengals could upgrade him a bit.
Smitty your insight on these guys is impressive. You are like one of those guys who can look into a storage container see the value that’s in it that no one else can see before they do. Buying guys at their lowest and profiting with wins later!
Thanks, Swamps. We shall see how this year works out!
Smitty,
I am always interested in how fantasy writers make their predictions and/or assessment of talent to make their determinations. How do you come to the above and other conclusions to make such seemingly confident decisions. Thanks and love the site.
Matt
A whole lot of gut instinct. Am I wrong sometimes? Absolutely. Sometimes i judge someone wrong, but even more often, injury strikes and that can make you wrong as well just the same (Jahvid Best for example; I honestly feel he was the next Brian Westbrook, but he will never prove me right, so I’m wrong there).
But, sometimes gut instinct is all it takes, like with Arian Foster, with Russell Wilson (I got laughed at making him my No. 1 bold prediction last year, and most who listened to me and drafted him at the tail-end of their draft cut the guy after a slow start).
Stats, gut instinct, experience doing this since 2005.
Smitty – how confident would you be in having all young RB’s? Just completed a mock draft at the 12 spot in a 12 team league and the picks went as follows:
1. AJ Green
2. Cam Newton
3. Lamar Miller
4. Monte Ball
5. Desean Jackson
6. Le’von Bell
Are you that confident in the breakout players that you would have all 3 of them starting as seen with the first 6 picks of the mock?
Everyone starting to seek Jared Cook emerging? He has been on the Upside Board since January/February… the window is closing, the next Jimmy Graham will soon be known to all! Act now.