If you are a regular here at DraftCalc, then recognize this column.
Six Burning Questions is on ongoing column that essentially calls out some of the bigger fantasy football questions floating around our forums and comments sections of our site.
These questions might be bust-related, draft-related, or about one specific player.
Here are six questions that are currently burning in fantasy worlds.
1. Aside from your top rookie running back favorites, what rookie rushers could surprise?
Easy. Christine Michael. He is climbing up my draft board fast, actually. The kid is a tremendous talent. But, like with all of these 2013 rookie running backs, from Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy, straight down to Giovanni Bernard, situation is everything. I’ve made it crystal-clear since January that any single one of Ball, Lacy, LeVeon Bell, Knile Davis, Michael, Bernard, and even Marcus Lattimore, could end up being the top rookie running back prospect after draft day is here and gone (so, once landing spots are known). Some suggest that this rookie class is weak. No way. There is a Doug Martin somewhere in this group, if not two. Situation is always half the battle when it comes to elite fantasy rushers, and all of these incoming rookie rushers have talent that is “elite enough” to make for a top 5-12 fantasy rusher. So back on point… will Michael be that guy? He could be that player; time will tell. The problem is, if Michael does land in a great spot, and let’s even say that he lands in the most ideal spot out of all 2013 rookies, well[level-all], everyone else will be onto him as well, so I’m not so sure he will be a surprise come August if that is in fact the case/scenario. The overall point is this… Come May, any name I listed above, and even a name that I did not list, could be the consensus 1.01 in all of your May-August rookie-only fantasy football drafts. Situation is that important with this class, and that flexibility doesn’t make it a weak class.
2. Is it smart to draft a quarterback early this year?
With Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning rounding out the top five fantasy quarterbacks heading into 2013, it’s hard to suggest that taking a passer in the first- or second-round is wise. This is especially the case since 1-2 of those five passers mentioned might fall into the late third- to early fourth-round range in upcoming fantasy football drafts. Plus, given that any single one of the five mentioned, including the 1-2 that could fall further than the others, could finish as this year’s top scoring fantasy passer, it only seems logical to wait on drafting your passer in 2013 fantasy football drafts. And, mix in that Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III are also top 5 capable, even if ranked a tier below the first group, this could be one of the best years to wait on a passer, better than any seasons prior. We haven’t even mentioned Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, or Colin Kaepernick, all who have elite potential as well. My general conclusion entering all 2013 drafts is to wait until the fourth-round to grab a passer. And, if Newton is there in the fourth, something ADPs are now suggesting, grab him without hesitation and regardless of intended draft planning… Newt in the fourth is head-scratching, and it makes him ‘steal of the draft’ material. Also, if you find that none of Rodgers, Newton, Brees, Brady or Manning are left for you in that fourth-round, wait until the fifth- or sixth-round and grab one of Wilson, Griffin III, Stafford or Ryan. Drafting a fantasy passer before round four just seems like a missed opportunity in regards to building up your other positions. The last thing I will add is that RG3 in the 6th-round, which is where his ADP seems to be recently settling, is starting to look rather sneaky; just back him up if you grab him as your starter, as setbacks and follow-up injuries happen with ACL recovery seasons, but I love his upside this year (given the value)!
3. You called Isaiah Pead a breakout candidate in 2011. Do you still believe?
Absolutely. However, does St. Louis know what they have in Pead? That piece I cannot control, and St. Louis may answer that question during April’s 2013 NFL Draft. If they invest in a big name rookie rusher, Pead’s chances of emerging as an eventual top fantasy rusher diminishes. That said, don’t completely count him out even if his obstacles increase. Arian Foster was an undrafted rookie in 2009, and was talked about like he was a garbage back-up rusher prior to entering the months of June and July back in 2010. Pead has the skill set of a Ray Rice. Yeah, you heard me. But, even an Arian Foster could have been overlooked, clearly he almost did… if that Houston coaching staff didn’t sign Foster after the 2009 NFL Draft, would we even know his name right now? And, if Houston had not given him a chance to shine during August and September back in 2010, would he even still be in the league today? Pead is in a similar situation as Foster was in back in 2010… Pead’s future rests in the hands of that St. Louis coaching staff, a group that could either trust in the runner, or draft a big name rookie rusher. Also, Daryl Richardson still might have something to say about all this. I’ll be owning Pead in most all leagues I’m in this year, as the cost/upside makes sense.
4. Can you toss out a few potential “Bust Candidates” heading into 2013?
Sure, but since the question has “potential” written into it, I’m going to bring up players that I think could bust, but I will also talk about players that will be talked about as busts, even if I disagree.
Dez Bryant
Dez Bryant could be considered a high-risk/high-reward player this year. Notice that I still consider him high-reward, so don’t freak out and think I’m calling him an absolute bust, because I’m not… And, before we go any further on the topic, let’s keep in mind you will be hard-pressed to find anyone who believed in Dez like I did last year (read here). Dez was a huge prediction of mine last year because he could be had at 4th- to 6th-round value. Since I believed he had top 14 overall upside, and top 2-5 fantasy receiver upside, clearly the risk was minimal and the upside was through the roof. This was last year, though. Let’s be logical here and not just look at Bryant’s talent… Now that everyone is expecting top 10-12 overall upside, and top 2-4WR production, this means that he almost HAS TO produce a top 2-4 fantasy season for you to even get your investment dollars back come season’s end. Can he play that well? Sure! Again, you won’t find many higher on Dez than I was last year, and all that belief carries over, believe me… I think he is one of the most gifted receives in the league. But, he is a player that comes with some off-the-field risk, and some other potential drama, including injury risk… all this could spell disappointment in 2013. “Could” being the key word! Don’t think for a second I will take a pass on him in the middle of the second-round in draft after draft, because I won’t. I’ll grab him in a league or two this year, yes, even at that “risky” value, because again, the upside is still there for him to do what we all think he will do… he just comes with more risk than I’d like, which menas that you won’t see me draft him in every league I’m in like I did last year, as it’s a different situation… it’s a situation I would only want on a few of my teams (in case things don’t work out). Dynasty leaguers: Selling high on Dez isn’t a bad idea, because his value is at its highest; it could remain there, obviously, but trading a player on the high is always advised if the trade makes sense and provides you even more opportunity (like, trading Dez on the high for let’s say an undervalued Victor Cruz and relatively big quarterback upgrade, etc.).
Steven Jackson
In my eyes, Steven Jackson was well on his way to declining, but his new home in Atlanta may delay his drop off. I still have some concerns about his heavy-duty workload, though. Talk about miles! S-Jax has over 2,800 rushes/receptions since 2004. I’m not calling him a bust, as he could have just 1,000 rushing yards this year, but score 12 times… I’m just suggesting that fantasy owners draft him with a bit of caution entering 2013, and absolutely back him up by snagging the now-overlooked Jacquizz Rodgers (who I still think would be a PPR beast if ATL was forced to finally use him).
Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne
Roddy White, Greg Jennings and Reggie Wayne could all drop off a bit this year. White and Wayne due to age, and Jennings due to a change in scenery (losing a passer that may have made him a better receiver than he now will appear).
Wes Welker
Some may guess that Wes Welker will be on the decline, but I say no way now that he is in Denver. This situation is ideal for Welker, and perfect timing given his age. Peyton Manning has far too many weapons for defenses to focus on Welker, and he will turn Welker into his new Brandon Stokley on steroids.
Andre Johnson
Andre Johnson is quite possibly on the verge of decline, as he will be 32 entering 2013; however, I think he has another top 5-10 fantasy wide receiver season left in the tank. Still, if you own AJ in dynasty leagues, or in redraft leagues you plan to own him during the early part of the 2013 fantasy season, maybe sell him high during mid-season if it makes sense for your team/situation.
5. Are there any players you will target in most all of your drafts, or strategies you will follow in multiple drafts this year?
This is a great question, and as I outline here, it’s always wise to mix-up your rosters and draft strategies if you do play in multiple leagues. This way, one injury, or one disappointing player, won’t wipe-out all of your teams at once. That said, there are always exceptions to rules, and there are always players that have the right combination of low-risk and high-reward so that it makes sense to invest in most all leagues that you play in. David Wilson is one of those players for me, as you can get him in the third- to fourth-round range, and I think he can crank out third-round type numbers on a disappointing season. And, if he produces top 5-10RB numbers like I think he is capable of, well, as I always say, that’s how you win a league. So, he is one player I will probably own in more leagues than not when the 2013 fantasy football season kicks off. Another player will be TY Hilton, who sometimes can fall to the seventh- to eight-round range… and Cam Newton won’t slip past any 4th-round selection I hold. How is Cam not at least a low-end second-round pick, or at least a high third-round pick? Steal. Of course other players could emerge on this kind of list of mine with upcoming ADP shifts, but those players are the kind of players you may see get drafted on a grip of my teams in 2013 (despite my “mix it up” warning shots).
6. Can you list one big name breakout, one middle-round breakout and one insanely-deep breakout for 2013?
Big Name Breakout
Trent Richardson. I think under Norv Turner’s conducting, T-Rich has one of those 15-20TD seasons, and a 2,000 total yard effort. If I’m not looking to trade down, or trying to construct any creative WR/WR draft strategy, Richardson is the player I want in that top three overall this upcoming season. He is my No. 1 overall fantasy player in all formats entering 2013, and I see myself trading up one or two spots in certain situations just to land him. I think both Julio Jones and AJ Green explode this year, which is why I like owning both in my WR/WR strategy found here.
Middle-Round Breakouts
Of course David Wilson and Lamar Miller are “middle-round” candidates (as expressed on our Upside Board), but I think one of the rookie rushers this year will also be high on such a list. Which runner? I’ll let you know after April’s 2013 NFL Draft, so stay tuned!
Deep Breakouts
Of course, Shane Vereen is at the top of this list, as highlighted on the Upside Board, and Jared Cook is also an obvious pick. Isaiah Pead is another obvious pick for me at this range. A few deeper sleepers include: Alshon Jeffery, DeAndre Hopkins (especially in dynasty formats!!!), and Mike Goodson (only if a big name rookie is not drafted to replace him)… and I’m almost positive another rookie runner or two will make this part of the list after draft day. So, rookies will likely be on both my ‘Middle-Round’ and “Deep Breakout’ lists, depending on their landing spots and ADPs.
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Smitty, do you have any concern that Ray Rice is headed for, not a total bust year, but more so a dissapointing year, given Bernard Pierce’s emergence? I feel like he’s definitely still worth a first round pick, but a Top 5 anymore? I have some doubts.
I’m handcuffing him to Pierce, no doubt, that is a priority for sure if you own Rice this year. But, I wouldn’t say he isn’t top 5 any longer. Anything can happen, an injury, a string of fumbles, big runs by Pierce forcing his team to use him more, but I take Rice as a top 5RB if he falls in any draft. Do I rank him below Trent Richardson, and the emerging CJ Spiller? Yeah, and even Doug Martin could be a safer dynasty grab… but Rice is still right there for me, he has done some serious damage over the years, and he is still very young.
Great question, though, and anything is possible, which is why I do like my WR/WR strategy this year, at least in 1 league you do.
Help!!!! Just got an offer for CJ / round 1 pick 9 & 12 / Any thoughts?
Gonna need more details than that. PPR? Keeper? What do you mean ’round 1 pick 9 & 12. I’ll check back!