- 1. You predicted Arian Foster as a Top 5RB when he was a 4th-8th rounder in 2010. Who is the next Arian Foster?
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Lamar Miller – RB MIA
Great question, and honestly, breakouts like that don’t come around every single fantasy season. In fact, a rise like Foster’s doesn’t occur but once every 2-4 years. Well, I’ve got good news… I firmly believe that Lamar Miller is that guy entering 2013. Is he a lock to become the next Arian Foster? No. Is he a lock to even produce strong RB2-type numbers in 2013? No. Should you draft him inside the top 15 just because I’m this excited about him? No. Look, this is bold stuff, and the most important thing to take away from this is that landing the next Foster includes buying low, so low that the investment practically wins you a league. Plus, if the player disappoints, you should still be getting your investment back, that’s how low you are buying! If you buy-high, you’re defeating the purpose and your losing all that upside that you could have had if you had just invested at the player’s average draft position. Is reaching a bit ahead of a player’s ADP ok? Sure, so grabbing Miller a handful of picks ahead of his August ADP isn’t a bad move at all, just don’t reach an entire round or anything. Currently, Miller has a 3.04-3.10 ADP, the range is just that wide right now, but that range will narrow in the coming weeks, hopefully it doesn’t climb past 3.04… I’m not going to regurgitate all of the Miller predictions that I’ve made here and here, but definitely give those links a read, and note that Miller has climbed my list on that second link. I will say this… everything I felt about Arian Foster heading into 2010, when Foster was a 4th- to 8th-round grab (and I called him a top 5-10 overall player), I feel the exact same way about Miller entering this upcoming fantasy football season. Like Foster back in 2010, Miller doesn’t have a long NFL resume… Like Foster prior to 2010, Miller played well at the end of last season, the season prior to his potential breakout campaign (this upcoming season)… Miller screams top 5-10RB just like Foster did entering that 2010 NFL season… people literally called me crazy that off-season, and I’m not shocked when people call me crazy this off-season, as I’m even suggesting that Miller can be a top 1-5RB this year. Again, I can’t stress enough that one can’t expect even top 5-10RB numbers, and you shouldn’t invest at that value, as you don’t have to… just prepare to enjoy that result if it plays out that way. The dude has been working out with Frank Gore as of late, and Gore just recently compared him to Clinton Portis, so the cat is almost out of the bag in a lot of cases… Miller, who currently sits at No. 1 overall on our Upside Board, has been inside my top 3 Bold Predictions since March, so hopefully all of you dynasty owners out there have taken advantage of his bargain-type value all off-season long. With a couple monster preseason games, or even monster preseason plays, I wouldn’t be shocked if Miller eventually became a second-round staple in all late August drafts, which will be upsetting to the fast growing group of Lamar Miller believers. Will second-round value scare me off from drafting the potential top 5RB? No way, but you better believe I’m going to continue to steal this rusher in the third- and fourth-rounds for as long as I can, because that’s how you land the next Arian Foster!
Honorable Mentions
David Wilson and Montee Ball could both turn out to be top 5-10 running backs in 2013 (and beyond)… yes, even Ball, a rookie, could have that good of a rookie season. You can read all about both Wilson and Ball on our Upside Board.
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- 2. What rookies are rising and falling in your eyes?
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Christine Michael – RB SEA
I’ve already beat a dead horse, or horses, on the topics of Montee Ball and Le’Veon Bell here and here, so I’ll toss out some new names for a change. A player that needs to be talked about more is Christine Michael. He isn’t in an ideal situation entering 2013, as Marshawn Lynch is playing at a top 5-10 running back level, and only injury is going to change that. However, if dynasty owners can wait one or two seasons, probably more like two, Michael could turn into a future top 10RB. He has the potential and the talent. Because his path to the line-up is not a short one, I wouldn’t recommend trading for him at value anywhere near the values of Montee Ball or Le’Veon Bell… there is just far too much risk and one gigantic obstacle in Lynch. That said, just know that Michael is in waiting, and he should be acquired if the price is right, as he will always be an injury away from RB1-type status. Need help coming up with trade offers for Michael? Get on our fantasy football forums and get some advice!
Tavon Austin – WR STL
Ok, part of being a good fantasy football owner and manager is being able to adapt, change directions, and not be stubborn. No, I’m not calling Tavon Austin the next top 5-10 fantasy wide receiver, nor have I changed my stance about his long-term value, but I will admit that his rookie season, and maybe his first two or so NFL seasons, could be better than I initially projected. I am not a fan of his smaller frame, and I truly do not believe that he will last in the NFL long, not the way STL plans to use him (which is a lot!). Using him a lot is good and bad, though. It’s good because it means he will be extremely productive by default, and he is fast, extremely skilled, and he is so dynamic he will make big plays. The bad is that getting used a lot means lots of hits, and at his size, verses the size of the players hitting him (unlike in college), he will be far more susceptible to injury, especially concussion/head related injuries, than most expect. So, long-term value aside, I think Austin could very well be a top 15-20 fantasy wide receiver during his 2013 and 2014 seasons – Then I recommend selling high!
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- 3. What is your favorite draft strategy right now?
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WR/WR/RB/RB/QB or WR/WR/QB/RB/RB
My favorite draft strategy months ago was Going WR/WR/RB/RB or WR/WR/RB/QB/RB… nothing has changed. This article, which I wrote back in May, talks about drafting two of Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones with one’s first- and second-round picks… sometimes this requires a bit of draft pick trading, or a draft slot near the end of the first-round, and I usually abort this approach the moment I can’t acquire two of those three, as I don’t see many other receives, but maybe Dez Bryant, making this strategy work for me… but, if I can acquire two of the three studs, I then snag a couple runners of Lamar Miller, Montee Ball, David Wilson… I am not shy about drafting a Cam Newton or Drew Brees in the third-round, or fourth-round, as I don’t support the “Taking a QB early this year is a mistake” approach… and if we’re talking dynasty, my favorite QB to grab is Robert Griffin III in the 5th-round, give or take 10 spots, thus allowing me to get what I consider to be a QB as good as any fantasy QB in the game. Yep, and I’ll talk more about Griffin below in Burning Question No. 4. So, again, don’t go WR/WR/RB/RB or WR/WR/RB/QB/RB when you aren’t landing two of Calvin, Julio or AJG (maybe consider Dez, but don’t let your league mate’s reactions detour you away from thinking outside the box on draft day. My next favorite approach is just picking the best player available, known as BPA. Don’t get caught up on filling positions over drafting based on talent, as you don’t want to walk out of your draft hating your team. Think back… what team have you ever loved when you drafted based on just line-up need, grabbing that player you didn’t really want to take just because you wanted to have a balanced team. If you love every player you take, how can you hate your team? Keep that in mind as you walk into any draft, and know that we are here to help you find those hidden gems if you walk out of your draft with a weak-looking WR2 or RB2, etc… draft BPA when push comes to shove!
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- 4. Can you name your top buy-low dynasty player right now?
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Robert Griffin III – QB WAS
I’m not going to use my usual names, which are clearly Lamar Miller, Montee Ball, David Wilson and DeAndre Hopkins, all players that could easily be top 5-10 at their positions come 1-3 years… how about Robert Griffin III? I love his dynasty value right now. He is getting a lot of buzz recently, as news reports are breaking right now talking about his fast healing… strike now before he proves how young and fast-healing he really is. He could be a top 3-5 fantasy QB this year, yep, his first year back! The crazy part is I’m seeing him go as low as round six and seven in recent yearly-league drafts. Crazy! And, he could be a top 1-5 fantasy QB from 2014 on. Don’t buy-high, you don’t have to, but certainly take advantage of all the RG3 doubters out there, because there are a lot of them! The fun part will be reflecting back a year from now when everyone has amnesia regarding their RG3 doubt.
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- 5. What players are you staying away from this year?
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DeMarco Murray, Steven Jackson, Stevan Ridley & Ryan Mathews
DeMarco Murray is a player I usually won’t touch, not because I think he can’t bounce-back and play well, but there is no way I’m investing 2.08-3.04 value in the guy. So, it just so happens I’m going to be letting almost everyone grab him before I’ll even consider it. Same goes for Steven Jackson, who is getting drafted in the early second-round in July yearly-league drafts. That’s way too high! I’ll take a Julio Jones all day long over S-Jax. I love all three of my sleeper RBs over Jackson (Ball, Wilson and of course Miller). Stevan Ridley is another player I won’t touch this upcoming season, as he commands second- to third-round value, and everyone knows I envision Shane Vereen breaking out big-time this upcoming season. I also won’t touch Ryan Mathews this season. I will consider Darren McFadden in the fourth-round, I think he is a steal there, but anywhere near the second-round, or early third-round, I think I’d take a pass.
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- 6. You predicted Victor Cruz. Who is the next Cruz?
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Josh Gordon, TY Hilton
I don’t see too many Victor Cruz types this year – yet. That could change. DeAndre Hopkins is a guy that could go from rags to riches, but that could happen more in 2014 (although, sooner wouldn’t shock me, as word has it that Andre Johnson has lost a step. I LOVE Hopkins and see eventual top fantasy WR numbers out of the guy!)… both TY Hilton and Josh Gordon could pull off a rags to riches story, so keep eyes on those guys, but expect a bit of a slow starting out of both.
Larry Fitzgerald, Antonio Brown & Danny Amendola
What I see more of this upcoming season is a lot of bounce-back type guys, which can be looked at as a rags to riches types in a sense. Larry Fitzgerald is one player that could go from almost forgotten back to fantasy WR1-type value, but people are responding to his improved situation, so he won’t be cheap this year, but he can certainly outplay his ADP by at least a round or two when all is said and done in 2013… Antonio Brown could be a beast given the value, as he is the No. 1 in PIT now, and people are forgetting how high expectations were entering 2012… Danny Amendola could have a huge season, a 90-100 receptions type of season, just don’t overpay due to his injury history.
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Very nice Smitty. This helps a lot!!!
Thanks, Troy!
Pretty happy that I read this. Just acquired Vereen a little while ago (with Britt) for Matthews. On top of that, took Micheal in my rookie draft, so thinking I did well for the future here! thanks.
Nice work.
Well done Smitty! Very nice read. I don’t agree with some of it but it’s always interesting to hear insite from those who are opposed to some of the players I like.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those “avoids” play well, as the risk is in injury, and they could stay healthy. Trust your gut!
Awesome work Smitty Im not all in on Austin either.
Thanks, EverydownBack!
“Trust your gut”…..
The 3 magic words for fake football! We need to keep in mind in here that this isn’t a “mainstream” ff site….it’s, as Smitty always says, “bold”, and that’s what sets it apart!
Like many do, I use some of the other sites [sorry, Smitty...sometimes I cheat on you and look at other sites:) ] to get a feel for adp’s, values, overvalues, etc. When it comes to making decisions, I use MY research, Smitty’s superior knowledge….and my gut to do so.
Although I don’t have the time to contribute to this site as much as I’d like, l want to say “THANKS” to Smitty AND all the regular contributors who make this site…
…THE BEST!
nice read smitty.i have a serious feeling your Sam Bradford prediction a couple years back is going to be full steam ahead this year.
If it makes you feel any better, I had the same feeling about him a few years back, but injuries, lack of talent, coaching all delayed his breakout. I love Bradford. I think he could jump pretty high this year!
Thanks, GoPack!
What do we think about Robert Turbin being ahead of Christine Michael if Lynch goes down. Guy had a 100 yard game last year, 500 yards total, plus got 15 carries for Seahawks in two playoffs games. Second season I look for him to be a better player. Could he be the next RB1 in Seattle, I’ll admit I don’t know much about Michael, but thought Turbin was solid last year.
While anything can happen, I don’t see this at all. Turbin is a career backup in my opinion, Michael has top 10RB talent and is just trapped in a tough situation to prove that – for now.
Hi Smitty,
I just joined your site for the first time. This is great!
I need your help…. I have the #5 pick in a 10 team league. I’m thinking of taking your advice and going Calvin/Julio. I know this can be pulled off in my league. But my initial plan was to go RB/QB (Trent Richardson/Aaron Rogers or Doug Martin/Rogers). I would then snag Lamar Miller in the third or fourth round. What do you think?
Thanks!
I think both strategies are great, and I could build a team I love going in either direction. That’s probably not what you wanted to hear, but the bottom line is that there are no right or wrong ways to build a team, just as long as you aren’t making horrible selections
Trent Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Miller … that’s a fine start.
Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Lamar Miller, and then a RG3 later, that’s equally impressive.
What you have to ask yourself is where are your draft strengths? Are you a sleeper WR guy? A sleeper RB guy? Both? I myself love snagging RB sleepers. I like to think I do both well, but I usually find an Alfred Morris, Lamar Miller, even last year Doug Martin was WAY undervalued… Building up your RB stable is sometimes easier in a 10 team league too, so beefing up on those WRs (Calvin/Julio) is a great idea in my opinion if you know how to land those Lamar Miller and Alfred Morris types (examples this year could be Bernard Pierce, etc).
Go with your strengths!
Welcome to the site!
Nice article Smitty. I love Wilson and Ball’s upside, but rbbc scares me. Both Coughlin and Fox have a history of employing rbbc. Do you see that the case this year like a lot of analysts or will the cream rise to the top right from the beginning? Thanks
Have you read my Upside Board (specifically the Ball portion in the Dynasty section)? I address how overblown the Fox concerns are. Wilson getting “Spillered” worries me a touch, but I believe talent will shine through.
Smitty, I’m in a two person keeper that can start three running backs and one receiver ( so it is rb heavy). I know for sure that Dez Bryant and Lamar Miller will be there with my first pick (which is kind of like the 3rd round because we each keep two players). Obviously neither will be there on the way back around. Would you boldly take Lamar Miller over Bryant? I am keeping Ray Rice and Julio Jones by the way. Thanks Smitty!!!
But you can start 2RBs and 2WRs if you want? If so, that makes either grab solid, and I wouldn’t be so quick to say Dez is the pick, as I love Miller, but I think you can’t go wrong either way. If RB heavy, I consider Miller for sure, but I’d say Dez is the safe play. I can’t imagine Dez being there, though. Miller is usually a 3rd rounder, Dez a 2nd, so if this is like your third round in a way, I would imagine Dez would go right away, making your choice for you (Miller). Here is what I do… I draft Dez, then trade up to get Miller as well.
Rice, Miller, Julio, Dez… that’s sweet right there. Maybe a little RG3 in the rounds following, as everyone misses the boat on that guy thinking he isn’t still a top 1-4 fantasy QB for the now and future.
Also, be certain to snag Bernard Pierce, your entire season could depend on it and you won’t sleep at night without him.
I appreciate it Smitty. Great advice! That’s how I was leaning.
love reading the feedback..
you’re really on top of your replys Smitty
great feeling knowing our questions are being answered
this site is just a huge community/family…gotta love it
You know it, Ranman!
Smitty.. Need some advice.. I’m in a auction keeper league.. My keepers are Richardson-Wilson-Ridley-vareen-green-Bryant- which of these two scenarios should you do.. Add brees and miller or add romo-miller- ball.. I like having RB depth just wanted your thoughts or others..thanks and I really enjoy the site..keep up the good work..
Romo
Rich/Wilson/Rid/Vereen/Miller/Ball
AJG, Dez
or
Brees
Rich/Wilson/Rid/Vereen/Miller
AJG, Dez
There are so many factors at play here, like can all of these guys be kept, are their contracts attached, etc, but just at a glance, value wise, and assuming you aren’t able to start 4RBs or anything (as Ball has more value to you then), I roll with the Brees team, as Rich/Wilson/Miller is a killer RB crew (and assuming you only need to start 3RBs). Brees is a huge upgrade from Romo. Even if you started 4RBs for some odd reason, Vereen might do you proud as your sneaky RB4. Nice squad.
Thanks for the Reply..I traded D. Thomas for Wilson after reading your article on him..No we only start 2 RBs and a flex. Each year you own the player their price tag goes up $5. based on $200 total spending money. I appreciate your time..looking forward to the season with you at Draft Calc.
Thanks, Worm.
Hey Smitty,
I was just re-reading this article (which is nails by the way), and I have a question regarding the players you are targeting in the first 2 rounds. I have the option to draft from the either the 10 or 11 spot, and I am going to use your draft strategy.
Would you now include Dez (along with Calvin, AJ, and Julio) as someone to target in your first 2 picks?
Thanks!
I think it would workout ok, sure, but only Dez. I have made it pretty clear in the article that I ONLY do this strategy with Julio, Calvin and AJG, and MAYBE Dez, yet I have had a few people reach out saying stuff like “Hey Smitty, I used your WR/WR strategy like you said and got Julio and Cruz in the first in second” … those variations are not anything close to what I’ve suggested..
it’s the top 3, maybe Dez, and that’s it.