Have an upcoming fantasy football draft? Looking for a list of deep, deep sleepers? I’m not talking about players going in even middle rounds, I’m talking deep… Some of these guys are already on the rise, some are not. Some, despite being deep sleepers, will still typically get drafted in even medium size leagues, and some will not. We attack big-name sleepers all the time here at DraftCalc; however, this is not that list.
Let’s get to it!
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RB Johnathan Franklin, RB Bernard Pierce & RB Christine Michael
These three runners are about the biggest names you will find on this list. In dynasty leagues, it’s hard to steal them away from other owners in some situations, however, I’ve already drafted in a few fresh dynasty auction start-ups where all three went in the $1-5 range. Make no mistake, the circles of believers regarding these three are growing fast (movements I’d like to think DraftCalc kicked into gear in many cases), but because they are getting bid on at $1-5 prices, they still remain “deep” sleepers. In dynasty leagues, all three have top 10RB potential. Will they all develop into such talents? Probably not, there are huge obstacles in each runner’s way, but individually, each has that kind of skill set. In redraft, I have often made these three my targets when filling my RB4-6 slots.
QB EJ Manuel
There is almost zero chance this passer goes undrafted in dynasty formats, but in redraft formats, he might make for, in larger leagues, a stronger stash than most might anticipate. I fully expect him to win the starting job in the coming weeks, but even if he doesn’t start early on in 2013, his real value is heading into 2014 and beyond. So, yes, there is some redraft appeal, but this write-up is to warn dynasty leagues that Manuel’s a steal right now via trade. Go get him just in case he turns into a top 10 fantasy quarterback, something that I think is definitely possible. Don’t overpay, that’s the reason I say invest now vs. later, but don’t be afraid to make him your risky fantasy QB2 heading into this season and beyond.
WR Alshon Jeffery
Alshon Jeffery has the makings of a top 15WR, and he may have upside for more than that… it’s just tough to see it, or expect it, with Brandon Marshall around. The problem for Jeffery, and his evolution, is that Marshall isn’t likely to surrender his massive amount of targets anytime soon, but even so, Jefferey is capable of sneaky fantasy WR3-type numbers in 2013 and 2014. If something should happen to Marshall, on-the-field, or off-the-field, prepare for Jeffery to mature fast in this league!
RB Cierre Wood
Cierre Wood is super-unknown type, in fact I have only heard a few DraftCalc users even mention his name this off-season (props to users dnutty28 and only a couple others). I have been asked countless times this off-season, ‘Hey Smitty, who is the back-up in Houston?’ I have waited to answer, as it was very unclear, and well, still kind of is… I’m ready to answer, though… Or, I should say, I’m ready to speculate. The answer is Woods. There is still some ‘long-shot’ factor here, though, know that before you invest thinking that this is an open and shut case regarding backing up Arian Foster in 2013. I have traded away Foster in every dynasty league I’ve had him in. I sold high, that’s important to mention, as selling low on him is not recommended, but the point here is that I’m not getting a good feeling about Foster this season. He missed time last year with the heart issue, which still hasn’t fully been explained, at least enough to satisfy me to the point where it still doesn’t worry me, and his lengthy absence due to a calf injury worries me some. Foster set career highs in carries last year and his YPG have dropped from 4.9, 4.4 to 4.0 over the last three seasons. Is the writing on the wall? No, I could be a year early, heck I could be two years early here, but sometimes selling early in dynasty is better than selling late. As for Woods, he is an exciting back with lots of burst… he kind of reminds me of a David Wilson, and he is someone to keep an eye on in the coming weeks!
WR Kenbrell Thompkins
By now, you have probably already heard the name Kenbrell Thompkins. If you haven’t, he has been in the news lately as a Patriots standout, and he might just grab that No. 2 job in New England this year. I still like Aaron Dobson, who is also a sleeper given that his value has dropped due to the fast-growing Thompkins buzz. Both of these guys are worth owning in all formats, as Rob Gronkowski is often injured (and could be out some games this year), Aaron Hernandez is out of the picture, and injury concerns surround Danny Amendola as well… someone has to grab Tom Brady’s passes, and someone is going to shine in that No. 2 role in New England.
WR Ryan Broyles
Like with the above New England receivers, someone has to catch passes in that No. 2 role in Detroit, and with Calvin Johnson commanding so much defensive attention, Broyles has breakout written all over him in 2013! Broyles could very well rack-up sneaky fantasy WR3-type numbers as soon as this season.
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Marcus Lattimore (rb), Mark Ingram (rb), Zach Stacy (rb), Isaiah Pead (rb), Jacquizz Rodgers, Jeremy Kerley (wr), Michael Floyd (wr), Doug Baldwin (wr), Marvin Jones (wr) and Zach Ertz (te) all crack the sleeper list, which means any of these names could be sneaky-strong line-up contributors at some point in 2013.
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Ryan Broyles has always been that WR that my gut says to keep. He has hand’s like gold and understands reading routes under the pressure defences give him. Situation is perfect in a throwing offence with Stanford. He’s already the star in training camp now so when the season starts he’ll be the WR2 on the high end. My bold prediction is he’ll be in the top 20 of all WR’s.
He is in a good situation, no doubt.
Just traded Harvin for C Michael and a 2014 1st a few days ago…
I now have Pierce, Franklin and Michael all stashed away….super happy waking up to this article!!!
While none are locks, all have huge upside if dealt the right cards.
Dennis Johnson is the buzz right now in HOU, but I like Cierre too. I have him rostered in a 32 team and a rookie only startup. Tate won’t be there next year so somebody needs to step up.
I just need Alshon to fall 3 more spots, but I am nervous because he is starting to generate a lot of buzz too.
Yeah, there is buzz about both right now. It will be interesting if HOU decides to keep Johnson over Woods given how small Johnson is, and given both Foster and Tate are banged up. You’d think they would want some size in the backfield. Time will tell on this topic.
Yeah, Alshon is a talent. Can’t wait to watch him mature into a solid NFL receiver.
Great article, great timing Smitty!!
As always you deliver.
I traded away nearly all my early picks in 2013 for Cam Newton mid-season last year (bascially stole him for what ended up being picks1.12, 2.12, 3.12 and Lance Moore). So I have a great roster, with only the 2.5 pick till 4.12. I’m looking for these deep sleeper types to fill in for my next wave of talent behind a great PPR dynasty team, and some of these guys will fit the type of players I’m looking to draft late and sit on for a while… Reload, not rebuild !!!
Thanks for giving me a great list of players to research
Thanks, Hawk12!
love all these guys have alot of them stash on my 2 dynasty rosters also thanks to smitty and my dc nation fam for the props i hope to find more sleepers for all
Check out our recent ADP release, I highlight all of the standouts on the far right call, predicting what their ceiling could be, or how much the could outshine their ADPs. Could being the keyword, but it’s a great sleeper list.
FYI,
CHIEFS SLEEPER/BUY LOW
Kansas City Chiefs’ fan; yes, I appreciate the sympathy…
I live in Kansas City and everyday there’s talk/news about how much Dexter McCluster is getting the ball. While I don’t expect him to be top 10 or maybe even 20 material, he’s not even being drafted in some leagues. For my dynasty league, 16 teams, he’s basically my round 20 pick. FREE
He will be a contributor with virtually no cost in deeper leagues.
The other word is how much Travis Kelce is getting the ball; catching a lot of passes from Alex Smith, so it seems there’s a lot of chemistry there already with Smith being a “check-down” qb. Kelce’s RAC and overall athleticism and speed make him interesting; he too is very cheap and will probably be a decent contributor. Dynasty leagues, he has good potential.
The overall sense I get in Kansas City is there offense is going to be a lot more aggressive than what most people think. IE, don’t predict the Chiefs’ offense based on Alex Smith or Bowe or even Charles per se, but on Andy Reid. Except this year, it seems Reid is pushing the offense to be even more aggressive than what his offenses usually are.
Not that they’re going to do it, but there’s been a bunch of downfield passing in camp, and they’re moving Alex Smith in the pocket and have (98% sure) plans to implement the pistol/read option with Smith a decent part of the time — again Smith, draftable very cheap. Looking at his numbers over the last couple years and then extended in a Reid offense that throws the ball, I think an average of 550 times, Alex Smith projects pretty well. And, with some running stats, well… DIRT CHEAP PRODUCTION.
No one is drafting a Chief except for Bowe and Charles, who should be solid, but I get the sense Andy Reid is confident in the overall upside of his offensive line and plans on opening things up a bit.
Buy Cheap on McCluster, Kelce, and A. Smith
Nice update! Keep bringing the quality comments!
EJ Manuel looks like a beast.