Ok, before we even begin, I’m going to ask that you reset your thinking a bit. Envision yourself being forced to sit out an entire season of fantasy football. Yes, I know this is a painful exercise, one I hope none of you have to actually execute, but seriously, attempt to get into that frame of mind. Ok, have you reset your thinking? Now, pretend that you have been asked to assemble running back rankings for 2014 and beyond, but again, making all of the assumptions that these players will do you zero good in 2013. Remember, you aren’t playing 2013, you are being forced to sit that season out! So, with all that in place, who are your top 10 Dynasty Running Backs exactly one year from today? Below are mine, however, keep in mind that I am in NO WAY suggesting that anyone should use these rankings for any kind of drafting or trading; This article is speculative and more of a “get these guys cheap before they someday rank this high in value” kind of article. Ok, let’s get to it!
- No. 1 Running Back
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1. Trent Richardson – RB
Norv Turner has coached three running backs that have led the NFL in rushing, and for a combine five times. Emmitt Smith, Ricky Williams and LaDainian Tomlinson… he was also Frank Gore’s offensive coordinator during Gore’s best-ever fantasy season in 2006. LaMont Jordan, Terry Allen Stephen Davis all enjoyed elite fantasy seasons/careers under Norv Turner’s direction… well, now it’s Trent Richardson’s turn. I talk about this in more detail here, but I fully expect Richardson to shine in 2013. He is every bit as talented as every player listed above that isn’t named LaDainian Tomlinson or Emmitt Smith, but physically, I actually think he is as gifted as even those two. Will he have the careers that Tomlinson and Emmitt had? I say no way, as it will be tough to ever find the kind of durability that both Tomlinson and Emmitt displayed… but, for 2-4 seasons, can Richardson match the best seasons produced by either Tomlinson or Emmitt? Absolutely! If healthy, Richardson could easily produce some of the best fantasy running back numbers we’ve seen in quite some time (think Priest Holmes). What kind of numbers am I suggesting? How about 1,400+ rushing yards, 50+ receptions for 400 or so receiving yards and 12-14 total touchdowns. Again, I cannot emphasize enough that I am not predicting Emmitt- or Tomlinson-like longevity out of Richardson, which means he will never be remembered in the same tier as those guys… however, for 2-4 seasons, he could be just as good as those guys ever were, it will just be shorter-lived. So, back to the original point of this article, I predict that after 2013 is over and done, 2014 drafters will consider grabbing this kid with the 1.01!
- No. 2 Running Back
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2. Doug Martin – RB
While anyone can get hurt, there aren’t many safer players to build a dynasty around than Doug Martin. The dude is 24, his offense is now built around him much like Houston’s offense is built around Arian Foster, and he is said to be in even better physical condition than last season. Now, that’s saying something considering Martin dropped this stat line as a rookie: 1454 rushing yards (4.6 avg.), 49 receptions for 472 yards and 12 total touchdowns. Even if Martin maintains those numbers, he is a top 3-4 overall lock in all formats, and that goes for all positions. Toss in the fact that Martin very, very likely to get better over the next 1-2 years, then maintain that talent level… well, No. 2 is where he belongs. Trent Richardson, Martin, and the next guy listed below, Montee Ball… in my opinion, those are the future fantasy football running back monsters!
- No. 3 Running Back
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3. Montee Ball – RB
I don’t expect a lot of people to agree with this ranking right now, nor do I expect a lot of people to agree with it heading into 2014. Remember, though, I’m always making bold statements like this with players before an entire season is played, and this is me trying to predict a bold statement one entire year down the road. I honestly think a top 5-8RB season is in the cards for Ball in 2013, which should set him up nicely for a top 3RB spot entering 2014. Crazy? Maybe, and I certainly wouldn’t count on top 5-10 numbers, but I see it happening, I really do… I’ve been going against the grain with all my Montee Ball predictions dating all the way back to January, when most scouts and industry experts didn’t even have this guy as a top three rookie running back prospect. Ask yourself, doesn’t the Montee Ball hype seem to be building? The stance I’m taking on Ball is similar to the stance I took on Cam Newton entering his rookie season. So many doubted both Cam and my Cam predictions, but if you reflect back, you could feel the hype building week after week, especially after Week 1 kicked off, but also before (in the preseason). Well, immediately after the 2013 NFL Draft, when he officially landed in Denver, Ball was still most people’s 2nd- or 3rd-ranked runner out of all the 2013 rookies… that’s changing fast, though, and while most are late to the party, people are, and will continue to, begin buying into Ball… And, after all the positive camp reports, maybe even a preseason game or two, his value will climb even more, so know that. The point is, ranking Ball as my #3RB heading into 2014 and beyond may seem crazy to some (right now), but it will see less crazy come this time next year. I’ll leave you with this as well… I struggled putting him as low as No. 3 on this list!
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- No. 4 Running Back
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4. CJ Spiller – RB
The C.J. Spiller show unleashes in 2013, so with this exercise, we’d miss out on all that, but I’m rather confident that it will be at least a 2-3 year tour, which is a long time (so don’t get caught up on 2-3 years not being long enough). I admit, out of all of the running backs inside this list’s top five, Spiller has the most risk in terms of longevity. Why? It’s not just his slightly-smaller frame, the risk also comes with his style of play. His style is electric, no doubt, and it could have him constantly flirting with top 1-3RB numbers for a handful of seasons, but electric play like Spiller’s just makes injury all the more likely. Again, though, this small concern only has me hesitating in making him a top 3RB on this list… having him at No. 4 is still some serious respect, and it’s right in line with predictions I was slinging around last year. If you doubt Spiller, keep in mind that he has a new coaching staff this year, one that is eager to use him. Last year, Spiller was underutilized, proven by his 6.0 yards-per-carry average off of just 207 carries. He had 1,244 rushing yards and 6TDs on those 207 carries, though, and he pulled in an ultra-impressive 43 receptions for 459 yards and 2TDs. With a staff in place that wants to run Spiller all over the field, we could be looking at a couple 1,900-2,000 rushing/receiving seasons in 2014 and 2015!
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- No. 5 Running Back
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5. David Wilson – RB
I don’t need to beat a dead horse on this one, as I have all of my David Wilson upside right here, but in summary of so many of my David Wilson articles all over the site, there are very few running backs in the NFL that have Wilson’s skill set. That Giants coaching staff is the only thing standing in his way, as any staff could pull a “Spiller” and sit their best back for over 1.5-2 years. It happens, and it’s something we can’t predict. That said, the odds of Wilson not getting starter carries in 2013 are slim, and the odds of him not being the uncontested starter entering 2014 are even slimmer. If I’m predicting 1,200 rushing yards, 10+ rushing touchdowns, 35-40 receptions for 300-350 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs in 2013, you can bet I expect at least that in 2014. Again, I can’t guarantee what that Giants’ coaching staff is going to do… will they give Andre Brown all the goal line carries? Will they give him half the carries? These are all risks you take when you predict bold things from high-risk/high-reward type players. Whether you’re buying for 2013, 2014, or beyond, Wilson is currently a bargain, and very likely to earn at least the value you’d have to pay to draft/acquire him (and that’s if he disappoints).
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- No. 6 Running Back
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6. Ray Rice – RB
As much as I love Bernard Pierce, and let me go on record saying he could be a top 5-10RB all by himself if forced to start, Rice already is one, and he is only 26 years old. If he stays healthy, even if surrendering some carries to Pierce, Rice could still play like a top 2-4 fantasy runner for 2-3, maybe even 4, years. Don’t underrated him just because you like Pierce; you can actually like both. All that said, though, if you own Rice this year, next year, or in 2014 and beyond, handcuff these two together at almost any cost (well any cost within reason, that is). And, to be completely honest here, I almost put Bernard Pierce at No. 10 overall down below, but that would force me to abandon Rice at this spot, which I’m just not willing to do. So, instead, I’m sending out a warning shot, own Pierce if you own Rice… and even better, own Pierce if you don’t own Rice… yep, be that guy!
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- No. 7 Running Back
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7. LeSean McCoy – RB
I admit, I have been a big skeptic of LeSean McCoy as of late, but I have also provided a stipulation that my doubt goes from “extreme” to almost none if you can handcuff the soon-to-be 25 year-old runner to Bryce Brown. So, with Brown on your roster, I have no issues whatsoever drafting McCoy as a top 6-10 future fantasy rusher.
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- No. 8 Running Back
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8. Lamar Miller – RB
Bold? Yeah, and like my comments regarding already beating a dead horse on the topic of David Wilson breaking out, you can find all my Lamar Miller upside info here.
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- No. 9 Running Back
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9. Jamaal Charles – RB
It’s hard to rank these last couple players, there are 4-7 players that deserve consideration to crack this top 10 list. That said, with this exercise, it’s easy to see the value in Jamaal Charles in this range, as he has a new offense, one that should use him properly moving forward, and given Charles is only 26, he arguably has 2-3 top 10RB seasons in him (and 1-2 of those could be top 4-7).
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- No. 10 Running Back
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10. Le’Veon Bell – RB
I love Le’Veon Bell’s situation, especially for the long-term. If he can stay healthy in 2013, I firmly believe Bell enters 2014 as a top 5-10RB prospect, which will easily give him top 12-17 overall value in most all leagues.
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- Missed The Cut
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Missed The Cut
Clearly it was hard leaving off players like Adrian Peterson (turning 29 next off-season) and Arian Foster, both runners that can surely have top 5RB seasons in 2013… but, will they have top 5-10RB seasons in 2014? Even if that’s possible, what about 2015? You see, the point of this article is to just get your mind thinking about how long guys like AP and Foster really have left. I admit, I have been trying to sell-high on Foster in most dynasty leagues where I own him, but when push came to shove around those top 8-10 spots above, it was extremely hard to leave him off that list. It was. But, he has a big-time workload in his rear view, and he turns 27 in August; that means he would be turning 28 entering 2014 and beyond, which is what this entire article was geared towards.
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Bonus Comment
I’m not certain I’ll crank out a wide receiver version of this article, but let me say this… if I do, you might just find DeAndre Hopkins inside the top 3-5, if not higher. Chew on that!
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great work Smitty.. can’t argue anything except i don’t trust Trents health… other then that love it!!
I can understand the concern, but I myself am just not scared off by any of the concern some have for the guy. Do you have anyone in mind that was left off the list? Where do you rank AP?
Any more concern for Rice/Pierce now that their all pro blocking full
back has been cut?
There are concerns of all kinds when looking this far into the future, all we can do is take in the risks and spit out the ones we aren’t too worried about. One year from now, so much can happen, but the only risk I see in terms of Rice is not owning both Pierce and Rice. Your concerns are valid, though, you’re not wrong to talk about it. I just don’t see anything holding that backfield back from cranking out elite numbers.
I think Leach was already being phased out of that offense with the emergence of Pierce, so I think him being release is a tad overblown
You are correct in that the FB position was being phased out, but it isn’t because of the emergence of Pierce. It happened when Caldwell became the OC – he simply runs a one-back system.
BTW, I’m “all in” on these RBs. I have TRich/M. Ball/L. Bell on one team and J. Charles/L. McCoy/E. Lacy on the other (Ball and Bell were taken before my pick!)
Nice work on those runners!
And this is why I come to this site. Smitty ain’t scare. He ain’t scare of nobody. AP and Foster not in his top 10? Big deal, he’s got Wilson and Miller to replace them. Bold
lol, well, maybe I’m crazy
AP and Foster “WILL” finish in the top 10 in 2013. Very bold not placing them there but no way in hell that Wilson outscores either IMO. We shall see…………
The article has nothing to do with 2013, though
Predicting they aren’t in my top 10 for 2014, not 2013
Of course I would rank both in my top 10 for 2013, and I do.
Love reading your articles Smitty, very interesting idea on this one. Makes me feel really good about my first 16 team and idp league that I’m still currently drafting in but I was able to get Spiller, Miller and Ball in the draft
Nice work. Again, the key is not to value these guys this high, though, at least in terms of trading/drafting. I cannot stress enough no one should go trading for David Wilson as a top 5RB, that would be a big miss
in terms of fair market value.
It’s like buying a piece of real estate. If the market says it’s worth 200,000, but you think it has 700,000 upside, would you pay 700,000?
Not suggesting you don’t know this, not angling this toward you GreatProd, just saying it again in general.
Its all good Smitty, I’ve been around long enough that I understand what your thinking is behind your rankings and articles. Good advice for any newcomers though to understand to be buying low on these players. I’m very surprised with how my draft has turned out so far in my 16 team dynasty. Obviously Spiller was my 1st round pick but I got Miller in the 4th and Ball in the 5th. Very happy to be rolling out that trio.
You are a vet, I would expect nothing less than Spiller, Miller and Ball from your drafts!
Nice job, buddy.
Thanks Smitty, non DC leagues definitely a lot easier to get the players I like, though I do like what I have done with my DC 2 squad this offseason.
I have actually finally started to spread the word about DraftCalc a little this year, just won’t tell my friends that I’ve been in a league with since high school days for big money league
All I ask is you tell some people, on the freeway, in a sports bar, if you hold back on a big group of friends, make it up by just telling 10 other people throughout the off-season.
I know everyone wants to keep their source hidden, but there are other ways to spread the word, which make us bigger, which give all of you more bang for your buck, and it ensures we stay around for decades.
I will say, most that do share the site with league mates have more fun than they ever would have being here without their close friends. Yes, you lose some “edge”, but not really, as we have so many sleepers. But, what you gain sharing a hangout with your close buddies, that outweighs every con, believe me. Ask Junkie and TroyP.
So Trent, Martin, Ball, Wilson, Spiller, and Miller is in your rankings and is all I can get without subscribing lol. Is Bell on your list at all? I am very high on him
You gotta subscribe, my friend!
I gave you a 48 hour access pass so that you could test drive!
I really appreciate that, Smitty; love the site and the content. Gives me that edge over my opponents and no, I will tell them about this site so I can win more championships
As soon as I have left over money from paying bills, tuition, books, and car payments, I will absolutely subscribe here!
Love this article, just picked up TRich and DWilson in my dynasty startup – hoping for Ball and/or Bell later in the draft.
Any plans for a similar article on WRs and QBs?
Yeah, I think so, seems pretty popular, why not run WRs and QBs through this? I’ll work on WRs soon!
Sweet! Looking forward to it. Just nabbed Montee Ball in my startup too. If you’re right I should be set at RB for quite awhile (barring injury).
Yep, nice work. We can’t land them all, but we try! Nice work.
Zeeshan2, I felt obligated to join DC after getting all that free info from Smitty and the boys at DraftCalc last year. We all have bills, whats an extra $20 on your Amex card…. Thanks Smitty. You guys rock!!!
Thank you, my friend! Without users like all of you, we wouldn’t have a place to gather! You rock!
id sell my child if i had one for the kinda stuff smitty tells us,this is best site ive ever been to hands fukin down
… and on father’s day? LOL.
Appreciate the support, slimkilla, you’re a long time follower! Much appreciated!
Hi Smitty. Been thinking about offering AP/LMurray for Ball/Harvin to the McFadden owner (he also owns Miller & Hilton). At this point, I’m going into the season with AP Trent Wilson Mendenhal & Stacy-Pead, and need WR help (I have Dez Wallace Denario Floyd SRice). For Ball/Harvin, is the market value there?
Also, I have Gordon in another league. Should I offer Gordon & Olsen for Pierce & Hilton? Since the calc has Gordon=Hilton and Olsen=Randle, my first thought was to offer Gordon & Olsen for Pierce, Randle and a 2014 1st or 2nd, but the whole “market value vs. upside value” issue has me confused.
I like Pierce/Hilton for Gordon Olsen, yep.
With your team above, it’s hard to see you trading AP. You have a win now team. I say take it into the season, start dominating, then consider selling high on AP if Wilson is playing at a high level. Trading in studs like AP is smart, but it’s also not something you have to do with every team. Win another championship with that one!
I pulled the offer of Gordon/Olsen for Hilton/Pierce, and sent Gordon/Stacy for Wilson/ABrown to the Pead owner.
My draft-day trades (Lynch DMurray Welker netted me Ball Ivory Hopkins, Jeffery, Lattimore Franklin Ellington Michael Cameron) left me loaded with upside, but short on immediate production. While I admit I went “upside crazy”, and left some picks on the table, my core players (Stafford Trent Charles Julio Nicks Gordon Torrey Jennings Witten & Cook) were still a pretty sporty group to go into the draft with.
Gronk is the Hilton/Pierce owner’s only TE. I have Witten Cook Olsen Cameron. Do you see a good play for Gronk, or an alternative offer for the Hilton/Pierce combo?
The Calc, which I think grossly overvalues youth, has Witten/Jennings=Hilton, and Hilton/Pierce +23 over Witten/Jennings. I think, through 2015, Witten/Jennings project at >450/5400/48=1250pts., and Hilton/Pierce, <260/5000/40=1000pts. Not to mention, you'll rarely start Pierce during that time. Additionally, Witten/Jennings will outscore the youngsters, conservatively, 160/2000/16=450, to 85/1600/13=325, in 2013 (& Pierce's 120 points will be on the bench). I take it this is why you warn against taking on too much upside "potential"?
Yeah, you have to be careful not to scoop up every ‘upside’ and bold prediction and push it into one scenario, as bold and “upside” should be there to put you over the top, yet not hurt you if it doesn’t work out… you don’t want a few big misses to sink your ship. However, I don’t think you necessarily did that with your trades, although you will see a dip in initial production as you wait on Hopkins and Ball. That said, Ball could come out gunning, or he could take 2-4 weeks to get going, that part is tough to anticipate right now.
As for the Calc overvaluing young talent, well DraftCalc in general values youngsters and upside guys more, and you always have to adjust to ensure you aren’t buying at the prices we are suggesting. If you run Hilton through a 1 for 1 in the trade calc, remember we have him higher than anyone, so ask for more.
That said, Jennings/Witten for Pierce/Hilton isn’t nuts. Most wouldn’t do it, but I’m not expecting Jennings to return to form, so I like the deal for the long term. Expect not to use Pierce much at all this year, that’s how you should be trading/drafting him, but he has huge long term appeal.
Stafford, TRich, Charles, Julio, Nicks… Ball, Hopkins… that’s darn good, just attempt little upgrades, but wait on that team, and win along the way as well. Nice work.
I also have Charles Johnson–MY bold prediction!
Top-15 WR in 2015!
OK. I have two offers out right now:
1. Witten Olsen Jennings Torrey Smith for
Gronk Hilton Pierce, and
2. Gordon Stacy for Wilson ABrown (Pead owner).
I’m just not breaking up my Julio/Nicks/Hopkins trio.
Any hope for these offers?
I take Gronk/Hilton or Wilson/Brown in a heartbeat in those deals.
Guess I’m just being greedy lol, I want Gronk AND Wilson. AND Hilton & Pierce!
Back to reality…The Wilson-AndreBrown owner has Pead-DRich, and recently made a trade for the SF backfield. I drafted Lattimore and Stacy.
The Calc says:
Wilson=Stacy/Lattimore, and
Wilson/Brown=Gordon/Stacy/Lattimore.
I’m 99%–no, I’m 100% sure he’ll deal Wilson/Brown for Hopkins/Lattimore/Stacy.
Do you make this deal, draw the line at Gordon/Lattimore/Stacy or just forget the whole thing?
I have Julio Nicks Gordon Hopkins Torrey Jennings Jeffery Harris, &
Trent Charles Ivory Ball-Hillman Franklin Tolbert Michael Ellington
Are you starting 4RBs? Trent, Charles, Ball.. if you can only start 3RBs max, I say why put yourself in that position. I definitely trade Gordon/Latti/Stacy for him, though. Or for Lamar Miller.
3 RBs max. We start 2RB 3WRs 1TE 1Flex.
So, you’re saying to trade Gordon/Lattimore/Stacy for Wilson/Brown, but don’t put myself in a position to give up Hopkins?
btw, I just got a text from the Gronk/Hilton/Pierce owner in the same league.
He said he would trade Gronk Hilton Pierce for Julio Jennings Witten Olsen. I said maybe we should take Gronk out of the equation.
His current offer is Jennings & Torrey Smith for Pierce & Hilton, and added, I “could be cool” and throw in Olsen or Witten, since he doesn’t have a WK1 starting TE.
Another site I follow has Torrey at WR18 & Hilton at WR 38, and a third site has Torrey at WR17 and Hilton at WR35. That’s a consensus of 18 top fantasy guys. I’m thinking along the lines of your Jennings/Witten offer.
What’s your take, Smitty?
Never mind about Torrey–he’s gone. I traded Jennings Torrey Olsen for Hilton Pierce and a 2014 3rd.
This Calc is messing with my mind, Smitty!
It tells me Wilson=Lattimore/Stacy, and that Gordon is $15 better than AndreBrown, so I should (theoretically) get Wilson for Latti/Stacy, and Brown and a very good player for Gordon, BUT, it also tells me Wilson/Brown is $16 better than Latti/Stacy, so by the second calculation, Latti Stacy Gordon=Wilson Brown.
What am I missing?
You’re not missing anything, but what needs to be kept in mind is that we have a few players ranked higher than most, and lower than most in some cases. I trade Latti/Stacy and Gordon for Wilson, as I’ve said. I don’t trade Julio or Hopkins or any studs. I like your squad, and if you can get Wilson with a combo of players not your studs, go for it. While the trade calc can handle 2 for 1 trades, keep in mind that STL situation is one that could throw off a lot, as Pead and Stacy both have high rankings, but once one becomes the starter, one will fall an extreme amount on that calc.
i dont keep this site a secret….many peeps out here keep this gold mine a secret because your greedy and like keeping winning material to yourself…i spread the **** outta this site!!! smitty needs to be heard…..that, and im super confident in my prep every year
about time you charged for this site smitty
great work
Thanks, Ranman88! Appreciate the kind words, as well as your willingness to get the word out. I can promise everyone that the bigger we get, the more you will get with your subscription. If you want even more than we have now for the subscription price, spreading the word is how to get that done.
Great article smitty, helps so much with my up coming start up dynasty draft. Any idea when the wr and qb ones will come? Can’t wait to read those, thanks for all the hard work.
Hi Smitty. I have talks going with the Wilson owner.
Don’t know if he’ll go for it, but it’s close. Is Wilson worth the following:
Wilson-Brown & Pead, for Lattimore Ivory Franklin and Cameron?
Trent Charles Ivory Ball-Hillman Pierce Lattimore Franklin Stacy Michael, to
Trent Charles Wilson-Brown Ball-Hillman Stacy-Pead Pierce Michael?
Love the site!! I am a long time fantasy player that NEVER pays for fantasy sites. Until now! Love the advice love the writing love the BOLDness!!
See u around Smitty!
Thanks, buddy!