Just like I did with the running back version of this article, I’m going to ask that you reset your thinking a bit. Envision yourself being forced to sit out an entire season of fantasy football. Again, I know this is a painful exercise, one I hope none of you have to actually execute, but seriously, attempt to get into that frame of mind. Ok, have you reset your thinking? Now, pretend that you have been asked to assemble wide receiver rankings for 2014 and beyond, but again, making all of the assumptions that these players will do you zero good in 2013. Remember, you aren’t playing 2013, you are being forced to sit that season out! So, with all that in place, who are your top 10 Dynasty Wide Receivers exactly one year from today? Below are mine, however, keep in mind that I am in NO WAY suggesting that anyone should use these rankings for any kind of drafting or trading; This article is speculative and more of a “get these guys cheap before they someday rank this high in value” kind of article. Ok, let’s get to it!
- 1. AJ Green
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1. A.J. Green – WR
I don’t think you will find a website, or writer, in the fantasy football industry that was higher on AJ Green heading into 2012. Here is what I wrote about him last off-season:
From our 2012 Upside Board:
“A.J. Green is by far one of my biggest breakout candidates heading into 2012. As it stands this very second, his ADP is right around that 3.04-3.08 range, which is crazy when you consider his potential. Not only does Green have the upside to finish as a top 4-8 overall fantasy scorer in 2012 (especially PPR formats), he arguably has a top 1-2 fantasy wide receiver ceiling. As a rookie, Green pulled in 65 receptions for 1,057 yards and 7TDs (with four 100-yard games); if he stays healthy, the stud-in-the-making is going to absolutely crush those numbers in 2012.”That was just one write-up that we had on Green last season, back when he had a 2nd- to 3rd-round ADP in dynasty startups, and a 3rd- to 4th-round ADP in yearly league drafts… Rankings and ADP are two very different things, though, and one should always use our Upside DraftCalc Rankings in conjunction with a fresh ADP list, as we often make bold “ahead of the curve” type statements with our rankings. Green might be my No. 1 receiver in all formats, but according to fresh ADP Data, I don’t have to snag him as the first-drafted receiver – yet. Most will still have Calvin No. 1, even in such an exercise, and there is nothing wrong with that… I, however, see consistent 1,400/15TD-type seasons on the horizon when I look at Green, and I can see him cranking out such numbers for 7-10 more seasons.
- 2. Julio Jones
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2. Julio Jones – WR
You’re probably wondering where Calvin Johnson is at this point? Well, after 2013 is here and gone, Calvin will play 2014 at the age of 29. Now, that’s not old for a wide receiver, and I fully expect another 2-4 elite seasons out of the guy after 2013 is played out; however, the stage is set for both AJ Green and Julio Jones… both are likely to drop top 1-5 fantasy wide receiver numbers for 7-10 more years after 2013… that makes it hard to have anyone, even Calvin, ranked ahead of either. And, Calvin is still ranked No. 3, which is still an extremely-respectable… more on Calvin below… As for Julio, the dude is off the charts in the talent department. He reminds me of a combination of Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss, which is recipe for 1,300- to 1,400-yard seasons, but like with Green, Julio will have 15TD potential every healthy season that he plays. It will be that incredible, and unmatched, touchdown capability that makes both Green and Jones near impossible to unseat at No. 1 and No. 2… at least for me. What kind of season do I predict out of Julio in 2013? I think 1,300 yards and 12-14 scores is conservative, but safe. This kind of output will have Julio scheduled to be a first-round lock heading into 2014 fantasy football drafts, which is what this article is based on. If you are in existing leagues and want Julio while he is still valued as a 2nd-round player, act now!
- 3. Calvin Johnson
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3. Calvin Johnson – WR
Ok, so I know all you Calvin Johnson fans are scratching your head – still. Look, I’m not predicting bust out of Calvin moving forward, as No. 3 is still extremely respectable… having Calvin outside of my top 2WRs is not a reflection on him, it’s more of a statement about the other two receivers ranked ahead of him (AJ Green and Julio Jones). Calvin has had big TD seasons in past years (4, 12, 5, 12, 16, 5), but as you can see by the last figure, Calvin dropped just 5TDs last year, and that was while pulling in an incredible 122 receptions for 1,964 yards… it’s hard to explain how he only pulled in 5TDs during such a season. That may or may not change with the addition of Reggie Bush in Detroit… an argument could be made that Bush’s presence could help Calvin’s touchdown production, but a case could also be made that Bush’s presence could hurt his TD production. Frankly, it’s impossible to yet know the impact of Bush on that offense, but history suggests that Calvin is likely to pull in 8-10 scores, which isn’t bad, it’s just not 15+, which I think both Green and Julio are capable of during any given season.
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- 4. Dez Bryant
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4. Dez Bryant – WR
Dez Bryant was the definition of Third-Year Breakout Wide Receiver. Last year, which was Bryant’s third NFL season, he pulled in 92 receptions for 1,382 yards and 12TDs. Bryant was one of our bigger breakout calls of all time, as his 2012 ADP was in between 4.01 and 4.06, yet we wrote this on our Upside Board:
From our 2012 Upside Board:
“Dez Bryant is a steal anywhere in that 4th- to 5th-round range… I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Bryant produced top 3-6WR numbers in 2012. Whether we’re talking redraft or dynasty, only Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Julio Jones have more fantasy football wide receiver value.”So, if Bryant was in our top 3-6 last year, obviously the 24 year-old is going to crack the list moving forward. Expect borderline first-round value out of Bryant for 6-8 more fantasy seasons!
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- 5. Larry Fitzgerald
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5. Larry Fitzgerald – WR
Larry Fitzgerald has to be one of the most underrated fantasy wide receivers in the game. Fantasy owners had some serious reasons to doubt the veteran last year, as Arizona couldn’t even come close to providing Fitz an adequate passer. Receivers can still produce fantasy stats with a mediocre passer, like Calvin Johnson did prior to the arrival of Matthew Stafford in Detroit… Fitzgerald’s situation has been quite different, as Arizona has been playing musical chairs at the quarterback position since Kurt Warner’s departure back in 2009… that’s three seasons of not just having a horrible passer under center, but having 2-3 horrible passers under center per season; Fitz couldn’t even get consistently-bad quarterback play out of the position. Now that Carson Palmer is under center for the Cards, Fitz immediately jumps back into the tier immediately below the big three. Worried about Fitzgerald’s age? Don’t be! He turns 30 before the 2013 season even begins, which means that he will enter the 2014 NFL season at 31; however, even if we assume that Fitz fades into the fantasy night at the same age as most elite receivers, that means he has 3-4 more elite seasons in the tank. Will he fade in talent at that typical age of 33-34? I say no, as Fitz is a special talent, and his training habits are notorious, so much so that receivers all around the league travel to train with him during the off-seasons. But, to be safe, we should assume that he plays elite football through the typical 33-34 age season, which is still a grip of time! Don’t hesitate to rank Fitz in your top 5WRs heading into fresh dynasty startups, even startups that begin in 2014, as that’s the angle with this article.
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- 6. DeAndre Hopkins
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6. DeAndre Hopkins – WR
Too high? Maybe, but we are never shy about calling our next breakout candidate. I can’t stress enough that this article is geared toward 2014+, and in no way am I suggesting that anyone invest in DeAndre Hopkins at this value… the advantage is in grabbing him before he even comes close to earning this type of fantasy respect. So, where is Hopkins getting taken in fresh dynasty startups? Well, dynasty ADP Data is tough to gather, at least accurately, but all indications thus far point to Hopkins having a 5th- to 6th-round dynasty ADP… I’d assume 5th to be safe. That’s actually a lot higher than I anticipated, however acquiring/drafting Hopkins at that value still leaves a TON of room for over-performing. If you’re a bit unsure about how good this rookie can be, just take a look at these college highlights and you should see flashes of both Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones:
Don’t expect 1,300 yards and 10+ right out of the gate during his rookie season, although it’s possible with this kid’s skill set… but, I envision Hopkins having a sophomore season, in 2014, much like the seasons both AJ Green and Julio Jones had. This may sound bold, and again one shouldn’t draft/trade for the guy with this expectation in mind, but Hopkins could soon be the third-best fantasy wide receiver in the game.
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- 7. Kenny Britt
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7. Kenny Britt – WR
You either love Kenny Britt, or you doubt him. While I understand the doubts, most constructed around injury and fear of future off-the-field issues, I think many overlook the fact that this kid is the same age as both Julio Jones and AJ Green. I often hear things like “if hasn’t emerged by now he never will” or “he had his time to prove that he was elite”… if you think Britt has already had his chance and failed, take a step back, as he is 24 turning 25. Also keep in mind that despite his slow return from ACL surgery last year, these were his Week 1 and Week 2 stat lines right before he tore his ACL:
Week 1: 5 receptions, 136 yards, 2TDs
Week 2: 9 receptions, 135 yards, 1TD
Week 3: Torn ACLWith a full season in between now and his ACL injury, we might see that 100-yard/1TD capable receiver return to form.
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- 8. Brandon Marshall
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8. Brandon Marshall – WR
Like with Larry Fitzgerald above, Brandon Marshall is 29, only he just turned 29. That means that Marshall will enter 2014 at the age of 30, which means he has 3-4 elite seasons left in the tank.
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- 9. Randall Cobb
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9. Randall Cobb – WR
The dude is turning 23 right before Week 1, and he just pulled in 80 receptions for 954 yards and 8TDs as a sophomore.. talk about this year’s definition of Third-Year Breakout Wide Receiver! With the best dynasty passer in the league throwing him the ball, and with Greg Jennings gone, I don’t see how Cobb doesn’t become a lock for 90 receptions, 1,000+ yards and 10 scores for years and years to come.
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- 10. Demaryius Thomas
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10. Demaryius Thomas – WR
I admit I’ve been rather hard on Demaryius Thomas over the years… I still worry about injury, I won’t lie, but when that unpredictable aspect is tossed aside, it’s near impossible to ignore Thomas’ situation. Yes, Wes Welker is in town, but remember, this article is geared toward 2014 and beyond… Welker will play 2013 at the age of 32, which means he will be 33 during his 2014 fantasy season… even if Peyton Manning were to only play 2 more seasons, I still like Thomas at this spot. One could even rank Thomas higher than this, no question, but for me I feel this value leaves room for error and it leaves room for over-performing.
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Missed The Cut
TY Hilton is a player I wanted to squeeze into this top 10, but for now, until his coaching staff supports his rise to the elite, 11 or so is still a spot of mad respect… Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks all deserved consideration around that No. 10 spot (Harvin especially)… even Josh Gordon could eventually find his way inside the top 10, but his recent suspension has created enough doubt to make him a borderline guy.
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Great read Smitty!!! Love the way you look at things. Please, Keep these articles coming.
Thanks, buddy. I hope to have QBs up soon.. then, I may do a top 30 compilation, so you know where the WRs compare to the RBs, etc…
Smitty when you said envision yourself I first envision me on a red sofa and you waving a metal DC logo on a chain side to side saying attempt to get into that frame of mind. Ok, have you reset your thinking? Yes, I did and I’m Elmer J Fudd and I own a mansion and a yacht!
But I love the way you envision outside the box as toward your list I see Larry Fitzgerald being replaced by one of the guys that didn’t make the cut. Now that I just jumped a year what happen in the Walking Dead and G.O.T. ?
Great read Smitty,
Really like the call on the old guys (Marshall and Fitz)
keep up the good work
Yeah, I think that’s a great topic for most right now, as we dig into “draft mode” for all the upcoming dynasty startups we are all about ready to have (as we all continue to add league after league lol).
Love these articles Smitty. I’m a huge fan of Harvin though and I’d probably rank him about 5 or 6 but love everyone on your top 10 as well. I sure hope Britt comes through this year, have him as a WR4 behind green Julio and Dez
Thanks, GreatProd. Yep, Harvin, as I suggest, is close in my book. Some have to fall outside of the top 10, though. You could be right about him, though.
Finishing ppr masters league 12 teams dynasty
Rd one Calvin. A j. Julio dez and mb marsh all went
My squad
1.8. Dez
2.5. Alf
3.8. L miller
4. Rgiii. ( love him there )
5 Gordon
6 Ty Hilton
7 d hops. ( I sweated it out but I’m Ty over hops )
8. Cook
9. B pierce
10 Danario a.
Hope this is useful to everyone ….
Risky going Hilton over Hopkins, but clearly it paid off! I also love the RG3 pick, even though most will say it’s too high. Ignore those comments if and when they head your way, it’s a great snag!
RG3
Lamar
Alfred
Dez
Hopkins
Hilton/Gordon
Cook
That team could have a bright future, nice work. If you love Alfred, keep him and ignore my thinking here, but I try and land TRich somehow with a minor upgrade, or surrendering of a future first?
I think this just looks insane:
RG3, T-Rich, Miller, Dez, Hopkins… I also love the Bernard Pierce addition, that could be a huge home run later.
I think I may be the winner in the “All-Smitty Team” sweepstakes lol:
I have trent charles ball franklin lattimore pierce gordon harris hilton hopkins julio nicks & cook on one of my rosters.
And I’m currently working on a couple deals to get Wilson & Miller!
If I can land both, I automatically win the $1,000,000 “All-Smitty Prize”,
A DOLLAR A YEAR FOR A MILLION YEARS (taxes due upon acceptance)!
How about a “Go Robert” instead?
Nice work! But, where is AJ Green?
owner of t rich not into alf thats ok im going to look at spiller or charles owners not that into d martin myself
I love Martin, but trust your gut.
traded dez and alf and gordon for fitz , jullio and gio
will try and turn gio into bell or ball……
on another team contimplating trading t rich for aj dynasty ppr
i have rice pierce wilson cobbb cruz ty only need to start one rb 3 wr if i want and with 1.4 bell ball or d hops ?
or instead trade rice /pierce (yhey insist on both) for dez and ingram ?
thoughts please…..
Dez, Alf, Gordon vs. Fitz, Julio, Gio is pretty close. I love Julio most, but Dez is close.. and Fitz/Gio could wash with Alf/Gordon.
If you turn Gio into Ball/Bell, without touching starters, or elite players, you will be way ahead then.
I’m confused on the rest. Above it appears you traded Dez, but you describe here you could trade Rice/Pierce for Dez and Ingram? Meaning, you’d be trading back for Dez? Rice has more value, but it’s tough to say given all the trades you got going on. Looks like one of my leagues
Great insight I’m going to try it ill let u know how it pans out…
Sounds good. Keep up the good thinking!
Awesome work yet again smitty. Can’t tell you how much these articles are helping my prep for my first dynasty draft. A top 30 would be killer, thanks again
You know it! Thanks!
If we can provide you with any assistance with your draft in our forum, make sure you hit us up bwags.
Yep, keep it up on our forums bwags!
Great Article Smitty, these articles really help me out and I tend to be in line with ALL your thinking as usual. I like the Bold thinking. I have several of these bold players before they exploded. Cobb, Trich, Julio and RG3….now I need to get me some Spiller
You know it! Great job. Remember to buy low, though! None of these guys should be bought at the values I’m predicting… not even close to that value!
As always, nice work Smitty. Loving the insight and format of this article.
I love this dynasty article series. I hope they become an annual occurrence. They really help the dynasty owner when considering trades for the upcoming season. Thank you!
Yep, I plan to do them yearly, or more often. This has a unique spin, though… this article isn’t just dynasty, it’s dynasty but one year down the road. So, keep that in mind, as Im leaving out 2013 with the above analysis!
I’ve been offered Cobb for decker 1.11 and a second next year
I will still have 1.4 and 2.3 this year and two first and a second next …. Thoughts ASAP
I take that in a second, yep. The 1.11 is decent, but Cobb is arguably a top 5-10WR and you can’t pass up on that action IMO. Wait for other thoughts if you think differently.
Smitty…is there a place where I can submit questions to you?
I looked & looked, with no luck, so I guess I’ll just ask here…
Is there a particular reason you’re so down on James Jones this year?
I think he’s in a nice situation with Jennings & Driver gone. I think he’s one of the better 5th-7th rd WR2s out there. Obviously, the TDs from last year will be tough to duplicate, but I feel like the YPC & the targets are going to be plentiful.
I saw your had him ranked @ 41 & I just wanted to get your $0.02.
Thanks & sorry if this was the wrong place to ask…
Nope, our comments sections and our forums are a great place to ask questions, that’s what they are there for!
You know, you are right calling that out… with year-round rankings, and I mean truly year-round, some players sink a bit too much here and there and it takes quality posters like yourself to help call it out. Nice work. I like Cobb so much I don’t think Jones will be as good as some expect, but he deserved way more than a 40 something ranking. He is in the 20-30 range. Again, thanks.
smitty I get dez and give lynch and danareo , or decker or bowe
not my choice id give danario the others im not so sure…
So much depends on who you have, lineup, etc. I’d sway without knowing anything, yeah, but not sure what it does to your RBs.
Hopkins reminds me a lot of Julio Jones, but I really think his situation is a bad one. I don’t see his upside hitting until 2015, but he’s really a strong looking wideout.
Hitting his upside in 2015 wouldn’t be too far off most breakout WRs, so wouldn’t shock me at all, nor would it discourage me. Dez broke out last year, and he was entering his 3rd season… often par for the course.
Post rookie draft. 12 team ppr. Start 1-3 rb. 1-3 wr. Total of 4
Lynch
Gio
DMac. Latavius
Moreno
Alf
Danny a Decker
Ty Hilton.
Bowe
Danario.
Trade. Lynch. Bowe. Decker. For. Dez. ? Thoughts.
So you’d go from:
1) Lynch, DMac, Alfred (with Gio in waiting)… Amendola (with Bowe competing with Amendola)
to
2) DMac, Alfred, Dez, Amendola (with Gio and Hilton as next up)
… tough one. For this year, I’d say you’re better off with Lynch, I think he is solid and secure… any chance you could trade DMac in that Dez deal. While I love DMac, he is a touch more risky than Lynch.
Either way, it’s close, and I don’t see any red flags on either side, as Dez and Lynch are comparable. Your wide variety of line-up possibilities make it hard to even analyze such a close trade.
Thanks smitty I have decided its just to much to give …