It’s almost June 1st, which means that many of us are starting to prepare for upcoming 2013 fantasy football drafts. Six Burning Questions is a usual column here at DraftCalc, and expect that column to return in June, but I thought I’d toss out two hot topics floating around our fantasy football forums right now. These topics are: 1) What to expect out of Lamar Miller in 2013, and 2) What is your favorite draft strategy entering 2013 drafts?
1. What should we expect of Lamar Miller in 2013?
There is a little buzz floating around news wires right now suggesting that Mike Gillislee might be smoking up Lamar Miller’s probable 2013 breakout campaign. Well, I won’t lie, Gillislee is a talented runner, and he is a must-handcuff for all Miller owners; however, should Miller believers be worried heading into 2013? The answer to that is no, and here is why… [level-all] First off, this really is simple to breakdown once the smoke clears and you untangle the real concerns from panic. What does that mean? Well, here is what we know:
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Miller has a short resume.
He does, plain and simple. There is no arguing it. There is always risk involved when your ‘breakout’ prediction is based on more gut instinct than track record. However, is there really a lot of risk here? That leads us to No. 2! -
Miller has the upside for 5-10RB numbers.
This should answer the question just asked about there being a lot of risk. Given the ceiling Miller has, again top 5-10RB upside, the risk is minimal — that is until his ADP rises, which it may or may not, depending on his camp/preseason play. However, with a current ADP at 4.06-4.08, it’s hard to envision Miller not earning AT LEAST that kind of value on even a disappointing season.
It really is that simple. One can doubt Miller heading into 2013, but at his current value, the risk is extremely-low, and the upside is of the extreme variety. Come August, Miller’s ADP could climb into the top 20-28 overall range. Will Miller still be breakout material at that range? Well, while I still think it’s entirely possible, because remember I think top 5-10RB numbers are possible for the runner, the point is, now is the time to buy-low if you want in on the real value. Now… Not later… Right now, while everyone is acting like the threat of Mike Gillislee isn’t already built into Miller’s 4.06-4.08 average draft position (which it already is!).
2. What is the most attractive Draft Strategy heading into 2013?
Going WR/WR
Honestly, aside from the most logical draft approach, which is taking the Best Player Available, I still firmly believe in my WR/WR Draft Strategy heading into 2013. In a nutshell, and you can read more about it here, if you decide to implement this draft strategy, your draft should look something like this:
… or, instead of drafting a passer in round four, you might want to grab a Lamar Miller, Montee Ball or even a Le’Veon Bell. The point is, with this approach, you are building your entire team around two of Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green. And, I know many will ask this, so let me answer it now… No, Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant don’t serve as substitutes to the receivers named; this strategy is designed for the three said players alone.
This strategy, which you again can read more about here, is not for everyone. It’s not for the conservative drafter, that’s for sure. It’s a strategy built for owners that are masters at finding sleeper running backs. Is that you? I myself would take this kind of team into battle any day: Cam Newton, David Wilson, Lamar Miller (or Montee Ball-type), AJ Green, Julio Jones, Josh Gordon, Jared Cook (with bench breakouts like: TY Hilton, Shane Vereen, Johnathan Franklin and Isaiah Pead).
Best Player Available Approach
Past the above strategy, there aren’t many approaches I would ever recommend anyone locking into heading into a draft. So much depends on the flow of the draft, line-up requirements, what type of owners you are drafting with, will the owners know about guys like Lamar Miller and David Wilson, or will breakout candidates like those guys fall an additional round than usual? Will Shane Vereen types fall handfuls of rounds past where they should get snagged? These are all things that can affect a draft strategy, so past the Going WR/WR approach outlined above, which I’d abort if two of Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones can’t be secured, BPA (Best Player Available) is the only for sure approach I take into every draft. Then, at that point, one just has to adapt to the flow. Drafting based on position need alone can often leave you with a team you just hate looking at on paper!
Want to talk strategy? Leave a comment below!
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Best player available by who’s standards? Some might think auto draft is the way to do that, but you would be stuck w/ site projections of the host. Then, you decide who the best player available is and that again is open for discussion.
Of course Best Player Available by your standards. Of course everyone’s standards will be different, which is why you will still steal players away from other owners because you will be more in the know!
And in the short amount time I’ve been in this site I have changed my beliefs 180d from when I started. Now I’m starting to believe I’m in the know and not being spoon fed bs that every other site regurges.
Thanks Smitty
Thanks, popeye! Glad to have you here!!!! Be sure to register on our forums, which are free, and get to posting there. Our forum community is super helpful, second to none!
OK, so how about the auction league strategy going WR/WR. I play in a auction/contract keeper. We can contract any player drafted last year, for $4 more than he was drafted for. So a 1 year contract for a $1 player = $5 for 2013.
We have $125 cap, 2 RB, 3WR, TE, FLX – 10 teamer. 3 point bonus at 100 yds, another 3 at 150yds run/rec. 300 yds & 350 passing bonus. SO STUDS MATTER A LOT.
Most top RBs will be kept this season, AP, TR, Spiller, Martin, Foster, Lynch. McCoy & Rice are the only top RBs I project left and see them being VERY VERY expensive this season… ($32-36 each projected based on cap space and rosters of the league)
My keeper options:
David Wilson – $4 2012 = keeping for $7 or $11 for 2 yr contract.
Dez – $15 2012 = keeping for $19 for 1 yr….
Also considering Jamal Charles at $24, keeping for $27 1yr.
Would you:
1 – keep Charles at $27
2 – buy both AJG & Calvin both (contracts are up), eating up much of my cap space? Prob go for $25-30 each based on league history for top WRs.
If yes to both, I’d be super low on any QB cap space and bye/depth position cap space=, leaving little depth at all – BUT would start — Charles, Wilson, AJG, Calvin, Dez weekly…
I’m strongly considering this approach, and drafting one or two of Lamar/Ball/Bell, and killing all cap space for this roster.
What do I do?
I would do that in a heartbeat, then grab Stafford on the cheap
It’s much harder to predict how this will play out for you in an auction, but at the same time, it might be even easier to build such a team. Plus, most auctions have solid players left at 1 and 2 bucks, if of course your league spends a lot early, something you might set in motion with your approach. I’d be lying if I said this was safe in an auction, but if you do multiple leagues, it’s always fun trying different approaches, and I bet you end up with a team very similar to the one outlined in the WR/WR Approach article. So, I would do it, but again, it’s risky and not for everyone.
thanks Smitty and popeye. I am developing a draft strategy, but auction can always get crazy quickly.
I will be calling out what ever top RB is avail on my first few player picks to burn up and bid up the available dollar poll on the top guys.
Hopefully Calvin and AJG both end up on my squad, but you never know in auction – last year a guy busted out $50 for Calvin and we all yelled SOLD at the same time… He actually won the league due to great keepers and low prices and could afford it as long as Calvin led the league, which his 1,900 yards did easily with the yardage bonuses.
It’s always fun going into an auction draft. Is it smart to call out small-time players you like early, or will they be even cheaper when all the money is blown! So tough to know, and so much fun to think about! Good luck, keep us posted, and keep up the good commenting!
Funny you mention the calling out small time players early. I called Victor Cruz 2 years ago very early, for $1 – and the whole league yelled SOLD. I stood up and commented that he would have a 1,000 yard season – GOT LAUGHED OUT of the room, he went for 1,500 and I barely lost the championship. Kept him and won the league the next year.
This year, I’m gonna try that with Shane Vareen and see if I can take him for $1-3 while other good backs are available
Ha, good story. The thing is that it’s always tough to know if Vereen will go for more that way, though. I know it worked with Cruz, but many times if I call a back-up up like Vereen, the people that like Ridley will big like 5-7 bucks for such a guy, whereas later no one has money and he goes for 1-2. It could happen like you say, but that’s the fun in it all.
Here’s my 10-team rookie draft after taking Michael at 2.04:
Traded Lynch for the 1.01&2.06, and DMurray for the 1.02. Ball at 1.01.
Traded 1.02 for 1.04/1.05/2.04&Jefferey. Hopkins at 1.04, Austin at 1.05.
Traded Welker for 1.09. Franklin at 1.09.
Traded Austin/2.06/2.10/2014 1st for Ivory/2.01/3.05/2014 2nd, so I could take Stacy with my 1.10 and Lattimore at 2.01. Took Michael at 2.04.
Current roster: Stafford/Freeman/Locker
Trent/Charles/Ball/Ivory/Stacy/Franklin/Lattimore/CMichael/MBush/Hillman
Julio/Nicks/Gordon/Jennings/Torrey/NUK/Jeffery
Witten/Cook/Pitta/Olsen/Housler
My leaguemates thought I was nuts–saying I “dismantled a championship team”, and took the worst of it in most of the trades. Hated to lose Bell and got ridiculed for the Welker and Austin trades, but the calc helped me manage the tradeoffs, and I love my dynasty team.
Whatcha think Smitty? No way I could decline the 1.02 offer, right? As I see it, I traded Lynch&MWilliams, Murray&Baldwin & Welker for Ball, Ivory, Franklin, Lattimore, Michael, Hopkins and Jefferey.
Well, it’s a lot of “upside” gathering, and while I think it could workout well in the long run, it was A LOT to do at once, and it is risky, upside or not, to collect so many of these upside guys on one roster, but love Hopkins and Ball, and Franklin and Lattimore… Lynch and Welker will have good years. I still love your roster, though, and Lynch/Welker (getting older and hard to trade) for Ball/Hopkins will look great one year from now… And Murray vs Ivory and all the other pieces, I could see this really working out well for you in time, but i can see/understand others thinking you may have been able to seek out a bit more in some of these deals… But sometimes you cant sell Welkers and Lynch types in dynasty leagues… you may see a dip in lineup production for a bit…but again, one year from now, things could look real good. Just always know its risky making your whole team upside/sleeper driven, but if you’re ok with that, you will be fine.
Maybe consider selling Ivory high, only if you can.. Like for a Fitz or other.. Just a thought.
And imagine if you hot on Franklin or Lattimore! Don’t sell either!
Has Dallas drafting T Williams tempered your Dwayne Harris optimism?
Not really. Williams has been said to be ‘a ways away’ from being ready for the big leagues. Harris is set up perfectly to replace either Dez or Austin if either should suffer injury, and I get a strong feeling, with no evidence to suggest I’m right ;), that Harris could be in a big role for a string of games this year.
Is going WR/WR for a draft strategy predicated on a being in a PPR league?
To me, it seems like it would be. I am not saying I would eliminate the possibility of going WR/WR in no-ppr league. But, the chips would have to fall in the right place for me to go with that strategy. If I am drafting from the last two spots in a no-ppr 10 or a 12 man league, I would rather have Calvin or AJ combo’d with a Matt Forte or an Alfred Morris, as opposed to having Calvin or AJ paired with Julio Jones. I think you can find potential top 10 WR’s in rounds 4-6 i.e. Jordy Nelson, Marques Colston, Hakeem Nicks, Wes Welker or Dewayne Bowe. Or get lucky and snag a falling Vincent Jackson or Victor Cruz in the late 3rd or early 4th. I feel like its essential to have quality #1 & #2 RB’s to be competitive in MY non-ppr leagues, but I fall somewhere between the risky & conservative drafter.
Not necessarily, as I used this strategy last year in a league and won by a lot. I had:
Matt Ryan
CJ Spiller
Alfred Morris
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Dez Bryant
Kyle Rudolph
And, I actually traded Spiller and McFadden for Arian Foster, so I turned it into:
Matt Ryan
Arian Foster
Alfred Morris
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Dez Bryant
Kyle Rudolph
It was a 12 team league, and yes I traded, but the point is, I had two rather solid RBs and paid pennies for them. Even the WRs, I paid pennies for them. I actually whiffed hard during this draft and had $22 bucks out of $100 left once the draft came to a close, something I’ve NEVER done. I couldn’t spend it, another owner had similar money left and bought every solid guy left until players were $1 and $2, and I couldn’t even try to spend the cash.
This was a non-PPR, and because I love sleeper RB investing, and turning two or so into a RB1, it works out great most times. Honestly, this team I drafted, prior to the Foster trade was laughed at. Dez was a 4th- to 5th-rounder to most, and AJG a WR2 at best to most… Julio gained 2nd round value last minute heading into this draft, so I paid 2nd-round equivolent value, but Spiller and McFadden were bargains, and Ryan was under 10 bucks I think.
In conclusion, this can work even better in a non-PPR… why? Because WRs are even cheaper, and if you land 2-3 of the best, and have more money than you would in a PPR auction, you can clean up. If in a snake draft, think about it… When everyone is RB heavy, you’re grabbing WR1s… once it comes time for you to draft backs, let’s say in round 3, ten straight WRs could fly off the board and you get the same RB 10 spots apart in that 3rd and 4th… it can be genius in a non-PPR if the flow of the draft is just right.
I recently did a mock draft while trying out your WR/WR strategy (which I believe will be my redraft strategy this year). Trent Richardson was available 10th pick of the first round and I couldn’t resist. I ended up with Richardson, Green, Wilson and Brady in the first four rounds before I was disconnected (Yahoo drafts can be too easy!) Anyways, did I make the right choice by ditching the WR/WR Strategy and just snagging Richardson because he was available?
Thanks, I love your work.
Yeah, I abandon the WR/WR everytime if TRich falls that far, no question.
Richardson, Green, Wilson, Brady… lol, that’s nuts, land that if you can, no doubt! That’s better than the WR/WR approach in many ways, that’s call the no brainer approach
Nice work.
I’ve noticed that when I get a top 5 pick I’m usually dissatisfied with my team or upset that I could have got more bang for my buck if I were to have drafted later. What is your general strategy for a top 3 pick?
Trade down, or grab Trent Richardson! I know what you’re saying, though. Every year I feel that way somewhere in the draft.
Smitty, I just mocked the wr/wr plan in a 10 team 9th slot and got Calvin w9th pick and came back to me with AJ still on the board. Everybody was loading up on RBs and I cleaned up the wr talent. I assume you would agree that Julio isn’t as important if AJ is there.
I wouldn’t go as far as to say he isn’t as important, Julio could be this year’s No. 1 or No. 2 overall receiver, he is truly that good. However, I would take AJG over him yes.. in dynasty I have AJG #1 for WRs, and Julio #2. In redraft, I’m torn on Calvin vs. Julio for that 2nd spot. I’d probably split my leagues on that one.
Hey Smitty,
One of the leagues I’m in is a smaller non ppr redraft one…
I mocked and got:
AJ Calvin and Julio. I can start all 3.
At Rb, I had McFadden, Lamar, Monte, Ivory, and Wilson (my keeper)
Would you feel comfy starting 2 of those rbs in a small league where others have will most likely have 2 “stud” rbs and 2 very good wrs?
Sure, I’d be ok starting Lamar and Wilson, but you also have McFadden. I bet you get Ball as well in this league, if smaller. AJ, Calvin and Julio in a smaller league, or non-PPR, is still a winning formula.
Hey Smitty,
I’m in a 10 man league and have the 6th spot. What happens if Calvin Johnson is off the board at #5? Seems like drafting AJ Green at #6 is early, and risk Julio not being around in round 2. Any advise would be helpful!
1. AP
2. Foster
3. Doug Martin
4. Trent Richardson
5. Calvin Johnson
6. ?????
Best,
eggman
Spiller is never a bad grab at the 6 spot, but just because you go AJ Green at 6 (which is not early at all), just abort the WR/WR strategy and grab Best Player Available (BPA). I could care less who thinks it’s too early to go Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd, but with BPA approach, I have taken Rodgers a couple times. Not suggesting RG3 late, even in redraft, isn’t a wise move, as he truly is falling so far it’s crazy, but I don’t care about QBs being deep, Rodgers could outscore everyone this year, or any year. That said, there are plenty of runners left in the 2nd, but if you don’t like that feeling at all, not going RB in the first, don’t do it! By all means, draft to your strengths and what you’re comfortable with. I tend to love stocking up on sleeper RBs.
There are no right answers heading into a draft, and honestly there are 10 ways to win.
CJ Spiller, Julio
AJG, Julio
AJG, Rodgers, Miller, then WRs…
I can, and do, draft all those ways in as many leagues as I do, and so far, my favorite teams have been:
Trent Richardson, Julio, Miller, Ball, RG3 type teams
or
AJG, Julio, Miller, Ball, RG3 type teams
But, Ball isn’t dropping in every league, but 4th is where I see him often, just near the beginning of the 4th, so trading up is advised if you think you need to.
Thanks Smitty for the advice!!
No prob!
Hey Smitty,
I have the 4th pick in my 10 team draft. Unless other owners use DraftCalc, TRich & MegaTron should both be available.
How do you feel about skipping TRich and taking MegaTron w the 4th pick in hopes of landing AJG or Julio in the 2nd? I feel they will both be gone.
Thanks,
eggman
Yeah, picking so high in the first means you pick late in the 2nd, but Julio could fall. Dez is another option, but I don’t like the WR/WR strategy as much using any other receivers other than Calvin, AJG, Julio and MAYBE Dez. I think I go TRich at 1.04, or try and trade your first and second round picks to the 10, 11, or 12 owner, a two for two straight up draft swap? They may want the 1.04 and you can grab both WRs, then maintain your early drafting in the 3rd round? Accomplishes the exact same thing an guarantees you the WR/WR strategy, then snag Miller in the 3rd!
The other option, my favorite, is to trade your 4th and 6th for a 2nd.
When do you suggest drafting a Defense and Kicker? Is it worth going early for an elite Defense (Seattle) or Kicker? I know this is probably a dumb question, but I am new to fantasy football.
Thanks Smitty!
Not a dumb question, and there is no right or wrong answer. I tend to never want to draft a defense early enough in order to ever land those elite defenses, but it also depends on your scoring. If your scoring is such that defenses score 20 plus points consistently, vs mediocre defenses dropping 5-8 points, I think taking a defense like SEA, CHI, DEN, etc., early is ok. Depends on scoring. Look at last year’s stats in your league’s player pool, see how big the separation is. If big, look at some ADP data and reach a round at most? That’s my advice. But, I will likely draft a defense early enough (to land at top defense from last year) in 1-2 leagues out of 12. I play match-ups, defenses playing turnover-prone offenses. But, that’s me, again, there is no wrong or right answer, just preference.