Week 3 of the 2013 NFL Preseason just concluded. What sleepers are emerging from this Week 3 play of the preseason? What players are looking like potential busts? Let’s get to it!
- DET at NE
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Lions
Reggie Bush pulled in 5 receptions for 103 yards in this Week 3 preseason outing against the Patriots. Wow, what a nice showing by the often-injured Bush. Will Reggie stay healthy on the year? That’s a tough question to answer, and I think one must factor that risk into his draft slot, this way if he misses some games, you’re entire season won’t be in jeopardy. Bush is arguably a high-end fantasy RB2 this season, but he is best served, as mentioned, purchased slightly below that value to account for potential short-term injuries here and there. One thing is for sure, if Bush remains healthy, and assuming Calvin Johnson also remains healthy, Matthew Stafford is going to have a bounce-back season in 2013. He wasn’t super accurate in this one, in fact he struggled a lot going 12-of-25, but he did total 166 yards, 1TD and 0INTs.
Patriots
At this point, Kenbrell Thompkins is going to be tough to steal away from anyone heading into Week 1, and that goes for redraft and dynasty leagues. He once again dropped some serious preseason production. In this Week 3 preseason contest against the Lions, Thompkins pulled in 8 receptions for 116 yards. If the rookie stays healthy, I wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever if he produced high-end fantasy WR3-type numbers (if not better). By no means should anyone draft him higher than a fantasy WR3, or you’re just destroying the upside appeal with this guy, but clearly Brady loves him. Aaron Dobson, who was our early favorite of those Patriots’ rookie receivers, managed to pull in 4 balls for 50 yards, so it was nice to see some production out of Dobson, but Thompkins is the top rookie to own here, and the Patriots legit No. 2 receiver heading into Week 1. Tom Brady had a tough outing in this game, going 16-of-24 for 185 yards, 0TDs and 1INT. The runners were quiet in this battle, but nothing changes there, as Stevan Ridley is a strong low-end fantasy RB2 heading into 2013, and Shane Vereen, despite a costly fumble in this game, is our super-sleeper fantasy RB3/flex (with upside for much, much more). Both of these guys can co-exist in this offense in 2013.
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- CAR at BAL
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Panthers
Cam Newton didn’t have an incredible Week 3 preseason outing, that’s for sure, but I’m not concerned about Cam whatsoever. The guy is going to have a nice 2013, and 700 rushing yards and 7-14 rushing scores is sure to bring smiles to many faces this upcoming season. That Panthers defense might be a big-time sleeper DST this year, proven by their monster stat line in this one: 3INTs, 8 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 6QB hits, and 3 defensive touchdowns.
Ravens
Joe Flacco may be getting paid big bucks, but he is no fantasy QB1. He just isn’t. He is efficient enough, though, to help Torrey Smith play like a super-strong fantasy WR3 (with upside for low-end fantasy WR2-type numbers) in 2013. Ray Rice looked sharp in this game, rushing 16 times for 62 yards and 1TD. Bernard Pierce was back, which was nice to see, as he gave us an injury scare last time he was on the field, but he did lose a fumble in this game. That shouldn’t worry anyone, as the Ravens will use him early and often in 2013, which won’t really affect Rice’s overall 2013 numbers… but, as I always like to add, if Pierce is ever forced to start in 2013, by way of injury to Rice, get ready for top 5 fantasy RB stats per start! Pierce is arguably the best fantasy back-up in the game right now, and he is so good he warrants flex-like consideration right out of the gate, even in his sharing role!
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- SEA at GB
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Seahawks
Russell Wilson struggled in this one, going 11-of-17 for 126 yards, 0TDs and 2INTs. Don’t worry about Wilson or that Seattle offense. This team might not have any elite fantasy wide receivers this season, as they will all rotate pulling in passes from Wilson, who will still produce top 5-10 fantasy QB numbers despite that WR group rotation… the star of this Week 3 preseason outing was Christine Michael, who ripped off 97 yards and 1TD (43) on just 11 carries. There are no better back-up runners in the league than Bernard Pierce and Christine Michael (no, I’m not counting Montee Ball as a back-up for those wondering).
Packers
Not too much to talk about on this side of the ball, other than Vince Young looking surprisingly good, and Jermichael Finley looking like he could finally have that solid season. However, don’t overpay, as he should be looked at as a buy-low with good upside.
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- CHI at OAK
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Bears
Matt Forte looks fantastic heading into 2013. In this game, Forte ran the ball 6 times for 76 yards, and he pulled in 2 receptions for 33 yards and 1TD. Beast! If you can still snag Forte at the end of the second-round in any upcoming drafts, redraft or dynasty, you could be looking at one of the bigger steals of early rounds in 2013. Why? He can be a top 5RB without question, but don’t even draft him in that first-round, as the value changes quite a bit when you’re counting on him as your RB1 (given his injury history). His second-round value is perfect, and it leaves for tons of upside, the kind of upside that wins leagues. Alshon Jeffery, a player we’ve been high on for a while now, is maturing fast; he had 7 receptions for 77 yards in this game. He looks like a future top 10WR, but getting him in a position for elite targets will be his only short-term, and maybe long-term, obstacle.
Raiders
I talked up Terrelle Pryor after the Raiders’ Week 1 preseason game, and the kid just keeps looking better and better with every snap. Oakland is extremely-likely to start the QB in Week 1, but even if they didn’t, this guy is the future of that Oakland Raiders’ passing attack. Pryor went 7-of-9 for 93 yards and 1TD, and he ran in a score as well on 4 carries for 37 yards. It’s still quite early, but this passer has tremendous upside, and I’ve grabbed him in every dynasty league I have.
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- BUF at WAS
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Bills
CJ Spiller was injured in this game, briefly rolling around in pain holding his knee. This happened on his short touchdown run. However, Spiller did return to action, so his knee is fine, and the runner had 8 carries on the night for 39 yards and that score. Is there some injury concern with Spiller this year? Sure, he isn’t the biggest back in the league, yet he will be used like he is. That said, the upside far outweighs the risk, but let it be known that his value is so high I had to trade him in two leagues (don’t worry, I own him in about 6)… I had to deal him, as I was able to get so much in exchange. You can’t hold onto a player just because you like him, as this game is all about buying low and selling high, or drafting low when the upside is high. If you can land a Lamar Miller and Demaryius Thomas in exchange for Spiller, or a David Wilson and a huge wide receiver upgrade, it’s something to consider without feelings of attachment… Stevie Johnson was targeted a lot in this contest, although much of the attention came from Kevin Kolb, who was injured. He is not likely to start games for the Bills this season. Still, targets are targets, so Johnson could be in for a very sneaky-like fantasy WR3-type season this year. Get ready for the EJ Manuel show, I just hope the show begins in Week 1!
Redskins
Roy Helu (13 carries for 70 yards in this game) is the clear back-up rusher for all Alfred Morris owners, and he would do well if forced to start games. Pierre Garcon pulled in the only touchdown pass in this game, but it was his only reception of the night (for 7 yards). Some like his upside this year, and yes, someone has to pull in the No. 1 targets in Washington in 2013, however, I don’t trust Garcon at his incredibly-high 5th-round ADP. No thanks. Give me Cam Newton, Hakeem Nicks, TY Hilton, Shane Vereen over Garcon; all of those players can be had, on average, after Garcon.
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- CLE at IND
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Browns
Trent Richardson, who is my No. 1-ranked runner this season, ran the ball 7 times for 31 yards (4.4 YPC); he also pulled in 1 pass for 10 yards. During his main drive, Richardson was the center piece of it, and he even looked great blocking, picking up the blitz. I’m really impressed with how good he looks all around – toss in the fact that Norv Turner is his offensive coordinator, well… if healthy in 2013, get ready for a 1,800-1,900 total yards, 50-60 receptions and well over 10-12 scores… Not much else is worth noting on the Browns’ side of the football, but this offense looks great and ready to rumble this season!
Colts
I’ve screamed for almost nine months now that TY Hilton would soon be accepted by all the early doubters as a rising star in this league, and I’ve been talking low-end WR1-type numbers. People are starting to believe, but you can still steal Hilton away in a lot of drafts as a high-end fantasy WR3 (with low-end fantasy WR1-type upside)! Reggie Wayne looks great this preseason, something I mentioned during last week’s preseason recaps. Well, he pulled in 7 receptions for 79 yards in this one. He is healthy, he has one more elite year left if you ask me, something I admittedly questioned earlier this off-season. All this spells a top 5-7 fantasy QB season for Andrew Luck this year, who went 16-of-25 for 2TDs and 1INT in this game.
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- NYJ at NYG
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Jets
Geno Smith was awful in this game, causing a safety, throwing 3INTs and going 16-of-30 for 199 yards and 1TD. The thing is, though, Mark Sanchez, who hurt his shoulder in this game, was never the answer, and Smith has to be the guy for the Jets if this team wants to do anything in 2013. Smith can get better, I’m afraid Sanchez cannot. Chris Ivory ran the ball 8 times for just 15 yards in this one, and while it’s just preseason, you have to wonder how consistent Ivory will be in 2013 if Smith, or whomever is passing for the Jets, can’t move the ball down the field.
Giants
David Wilson, our No. 2 overall breakout player for 2013, ripped off 92 yards and 1TD on just 5 carries. It’s going to be hard for that Giants’ organization to “CJ Spiller” Wilson this year after that showing, which is fantastic news for all of us current Wilson owners. However, this performance will make him a bit more costly in upcoming drafts. As we have said all off-season long, Wilson has top 5-10RB upside in 2013. That was once bold, because we posted it in January-February, but currently, many are buying into that stance… Hakeem Nicks looks healthy, and he pulled in a nice 34-yard reception, his only catch, in this game. Nicks has low-end fantasy WR1-type upside, but shouldn’t be drafted as anything but a fantasy WR2, as that’s where his ADP sits. That’s good value because it factors in his injury history.
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- PHI at JAC
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Eagles
Michael Vick, officially the Eagles’ starter, was 15-of-23 for 184 yards, 1TD and 1INT in this one. Brown ran the ball just 11 times for 92 yards and 1TD, so LeSean McCoy owners should be ensuring that they own both runners in 2013. I would not want to own just McCoy this season given his concussion history.
Jaguars
Chad Henne was 11-of-18 for 106 yards, 2TDs and 1INT in this game, so Jaguars fans have some hope should Blaine Gabbert not play well early on in 2013. That said, can we really trust Henne? Probably not. Who can we trust? Maurice Jones-Drew? No, I say we can’t trust him either, as he is battling back from a foot injury and was already at a potential fantasy drop off point heading into least year. I’m not saying MJD can’t have one more high-end RB2-type season left in the tank, but at a 2.06 ADP? Are you kidding me? I’ll take a Brandon Marshall, David Wilson, Demaryius Thomas, Aaron Rodgers and about 10-15 more players over MJD. On the JAC handcuff front, Jordan Todman ran the ball 8 times for 105 yards and a score in this game, and he looked fantastic doing it. He is bigger than I remember, as current web profile stats suggest that he is just 5-9/193 pounds. Something tells me those are old numbers, because he looks closer to 200 pounds, and he looked fast. I like Denard Robinson still, but Todman made a splash and I can’t forget that 63-yard touchdown scamper he had in this game, where he found several different rushing lanes to follow as he took the ball house. Justin Blackmon pulled in 4 balls for 50 yards and 1TD, but it’s hard to trust the receiver this year, as he starts the year with a 4-game suspension. He can be an excellent fantasy WR3, but you have to buy him at a fantasy WR4-6 type value due to the 4 games missed.
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- TB at MIA
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Bucs
There isn’t much to go over at all in this game, without Doug Martin (head) playing; Martin is reportedly 100% healthy, which is good news.
Dolphins
Lamar Miller once again did not have a monster performance, but this is a good thing in my opinion, as his lack of flash this preseason is ensuring his ADP remains in the “steal of the draft” range, which is 3rd- to 4th-round… Ryan Tannehill looked decent at times in this game, finishing 17-of-27 for 150 yards, 1TD and 0INTs. A relatively effective passing attack will lead to open rushing lanes for Miller.
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- KC at PIT
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Chiefs
Knile Davis impressed yet again this preseason, this time on a 109-yard return for a touchdown. While he only carried the football 5 times for 12 yards as a rusher in this game, this kid clearly is showing some promise. What does that mean for 2013? Probably not much, not unless Jamaal Charles gets hurt. It makes him a must-handcuff for Charles owners, though. Dwayne Bowe looked good in this game, pulling in 6 balls for 73 yards, but I worry about Alex Smith, despite his solid showing in this contest (158 yards and 1TD on 17-of-24 passing).
Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger is extremely underrated this year, and he proved efficient in this one going 13-of-19 for 166 yards, 1TD and 0INTs. Emmanuel Sanders is looking more and more like the No. 1 option in Pittsburgh this season. He only had 1 reception in this game, but it was for 24 yards. Antonio Brown might have something to say about what I just said, and earlier he was one of my bigger deep sleeper WRs heading into 2013, but I’m starting to think that it’s Sanders that will step up. I know, many might ask ‘What about Markus Wheaton?’ He looks promising, no doubt, and he pulled in 3 balls for 54 yards and a score in this game, but I think the guy is a year, or two, away from showing us what he has on a consistent basis.
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- CIN at DAL
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Bengals
Giovani Bernard continues to excite, as he ran the ball 6 times for 39 yards, with a long run of 18; he also pulled in 2 receptions for 17 yards. While he may not start right out of the gate this year, I’m not worried, as his talent will shine through. At his size, staying healthy is the only concern I have. It’s a legit concern, no doubt, but at his current ADP, which is crazy-generous (in that RB3/flex range right now), there is very little risk. Hopefully his ADP doesn’t climb too high, that will depend on how active your league mates are during the off-season and preseason.
Cowboys
Tony Romo was solid as ever in this game, going 13-for-18 for 2TDs and 0INTs. Dez Bryant continues to look as good as, well, as he is, which is a top four fantasy wide receiver. Dez had 6 receptions for 54 yards and 1TD in this one, and Miles Austin had 4 receptions for 59 yards and 1TD. Will Austin stay healthy? Probably not, but Dwayne Harris (2 receptions for 26 yards) will be ready if he needs to step up and prove how talented he is. How good can DeMarco Murray be in 2013? Pretty good, but that’s only if he stays healthy. While he could, for some reason I envision one of Lance Dunbar, Phillip Tanner or Joseph Randle having some success this year, and for some reason I can envision a rather unexpected amount of success. Now, that’s total speculation and gut instinct, and the problem is deciding which one to believe in… handcuffing is a tough dilemma for Murray owners… my prediction, Lance Dunbar finds his way onto the field this year. If he can’t stay healthy either, Tanner, a punishing runner, would be next in line.
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- STL at DEN
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Rams
If you didn’t buy into our very early predictions about Jared Cook breaking out this upcoming season, maybe his 4 receptions for 50 yards and 1TD in this game will do the trick! The cat might be out of the bag at this point, as he went as the 6th-drafted tight end in a recent draft I took part in. He can still earn that value, and he may still fall quite far in some leagues where owners aren’t extremely ‘in the know’ during the preseason weeks… Neither Daryl Richardson or Isaiah Pead did much in this game, which leaves Richardson still firmly in the driver’s seat heading into the season. Of course, Pead is suspended for Week 1, so the job is clearly Richardson’s to lose no matter what, but don’t count Pead out just yet, though! Really!
Broncos
Peyton Manning might just throw for 5,000 yards and 40TDs this year. His weapons are endless and the rushing attack will eventually have success, don’t worry. Who will be running the football when that time comes, though? Well, Ronnie Hillman fumbled yet again this preseason, this time it was scooped up and returned for a defensive touchdown. I don’t think I’ve faced more resistance in regards to a prediction than I have with this one (meaning my predictions about Ball, which have him as a top 10RB this year, and have him as a future top 5 fantasy rusher). That’s saying a lot, the part about never facing more resistance, as I faced a ton with my Cam Newton predictions during his rookie year, and faced even more with my Russell Wilson predictions last year. Ball, by far, is my most doubted prediction even amongst many of you loyal readers… and, that’s fine, I could be wrong, and there is NOTHING wrong with disagreeing with anything I say. No one can be 100 percent right. Worse than being wrong, though, Denver could do what Buffalo did for over three seasons, keeping CJ Spiller on the bench while I screamed that he was a top 5RB in the making. Not only did I look wrong for three seasons, I was wrong, because right or not, Spiller didn’t deliver for the first 2.5 years of his career. Could this be the same situation? I won’t lie, sometimes I feel like it’s the exact same situation, but I don’t see Hillman holding Ball off like Fred Jackson was able to with Spiller. Knowshon Moreno could be an obstacle, but Ball, who scored 39 total ru/rec touchdowns in college in 2011 alone, is elite, and if healthy, and if starting next to Peyton Manning, elite he will be. Demaryius Thomas looks unstoppable in this offense this year. I am changing my stance on this kid heading into 2013; I sure hope injury does not strike!
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- ATL at TEN
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Falcons
Matt Ryan (138/0TDs/0INTs), Julio Jones (4-81/0TDs) and Steven Jackson (12-51/3-15/0TDs) all looked ready for Week 1, especially Julio, who absolutely looked like he was playing against college players in this contest. I don’t think the breakout machine was even running near full speed on either his 42-yard reception, or his other long reception. Beast. If you think this kid can’t be the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver this year, you might want to take a look at his game film again.
Titans
Chris Johnson (11 rushes for 65 yards) is hard to trust, and for good reason. His offense is horrible at times, and it’s tough to say if that will change. This does worry me regarding Kenny Britt as well, but at least the Titans will sling the ball a lot if down in games. Britt could actually benefit from a team often playing from behind, but he at least needs to be throw good passes, something Ryan Fitzpatrick (6-of-9 for 76 yards, 2TDs and 1INT) can take care of if Jake Locker (11-of-13 for 133 yards, 1TD, 0INTs) can’t. I like Fitzy better in this offense believe it or not, and despite a good showing in this game, I give Locker 3-4 games to impress before he gets pulled.
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- SD at AZ
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Chargers
Phillip Rivers (71/0TDs/1INT) continues to struggle, as he is missing so many receiving weapons this year. With how deep the fantasy QB pool is this year, there is no reason to start Rivers in fantasy this season, but he is a legit fantasy back-up, no doubt. Ryan Mathews is not a player I will trust heading into 2013, despite his solid rushing effort in this one, where he ran the ball 14 times for 57 yards and 1TD. He ran hard, but running hard was never a problem for Mathews, in fact he seems to be allergic to the contact that hard running brings. Trust him if you want, but at a 4.10-5.02 ADP, no way. No way.
Cards
First off, the Cards lost G Johnathan Cooper in this game, who was their No. 7 overall pick. He suffered a broken left leg. This is awful news for the Cards, and a big loss for the team in general. I still think Carson Palmer (122/1TD/0INTs) can return Larry Fitzgerald (4-34/0TDs) back to the top 10 fantasy receivers, but you never like seeing an offense lose a big name piece like Cooper. Michael Floyd is set to have a nice fantasy WR3/4 type season, but those expecting consistency all year long, vs more of a debut of what is to come down the road, could be slightly disappointed; I’m not sure Palmer will be able to deliver two 1,000-yard receivers in 2013. Again, though, I am suggesting that we will see flashes of brilliance here and there, I love Floyd’s talent and upside.
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- NO at HOU
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Saints
Kenny Stills continues to impress me, pulling in 2 receptions for 54 yards and a score in this Week 3 preseason contest against the Texans. He could vanish as quickly as he has risen, but early indications point to Drew Brees (and that offense) leaning on Stills a lot this upcoming season!
Texans
Ben Tate showed his stuff in this game, running 11 times for 74 yards and 1TD. A must-own for Arian Foster owners, but I still am buying low on Arian Foster where I can, as his “sell-high” opportunity is over, and the buy-low opportunity is still here, but almost over as well. The likelihood of him starting Week 1, even if sharing carries a bit, is increasing, so naturally his trade value is rising. I sold high in one dynasty league earlier this off-season, and bought him back in the same league (cheaper of course). As for Tate, he is a tough runner, and he is clearly capable of borderline top 10RB numbers should he ever be forced to start for an injured Foster. Does he have a lot of dynasty appeal? That’s the question. Is Foster done? He has been overworked for three years, but he has only three starting seasons under his belt… is he really done? Or, will he linger in the league for a while, even if not near his old self? Andre Johnson may have proved a lot of doubters wrong in this game, as many have suggested that he has lost a step heading into this off-season. This is preseason football, so he still may prove those doubters right this season, but I am thinking Johnson has one more borderline fantasy WR1-type season left, even if he is near the bottom of that 10-12 receivers. DeAndre Hopkins will shine at times this year, but he will likely explode in 1-1.5 years from now. Get ready, but don’t expect it right away, though.
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- MIN at SF
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Vikings
Adrian Peterson didn’t get a carry in this one, and that’s good, we don’t need to see him get hit in the preseason. Christian Ponder actually did good in this game, going 17-of 23 for 116 yards, 2TDs and 1INT. I still doubt this passing attack a bit, but given all the weapons, it might be able to keep defenses honest for AP. However, I’m not so sure these Vikings receivers will score consistent fantasy points from week to week. I know a lot of people expect big things out of both Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson (who I am starting to like more and more), but I just smell inconsistency this year with these receivers.
49ers
Colin Kaepernick was effective in this game, going 7-of-13 for 72 yards, 1TD and 0INTs; expect a top 6-9 fantasy season out of Kaep this season, but he does have upside for more. I wouldn’t draft him higher than that range, but the upside is there, no question.
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Smitty,
14 team non-ppr league. Have to start 2 WR. 2 RB, WR/RB flex
RBs TRich, Miller, Ball, Pierce, Helu
WRs Green, tavon Austin, Givens, Harvin
Should I shop Givens or Austin to break up my Rams dependence? I may be able to get Leveon Bell or Jordy Nelson.
It wouldn’t be a horrible Idea to trade Austin on the high, if you can, unless of course your league scores return yardage. Can you buy Hilton? I’d keep Givens, and there is an argument for keeping both, though. I’d only sell if the price is right, especially if this is a dynasty. If redraft, still, get enough. Bell isn’t, given we dont know how many games you will get just yet if you acquire him, and Nelson could be worth it, but monitor his health and hold off for now. Austin’s value should only go up, so it wouldn’t be the end of the world to wait a couple games?
awesome write up smitty thnks,
Thanks, buddy.
Would you take a flyer on Stills over Moore in NO?
I would, for now. That could change of course, but Still is getting a lot of attention by Brees this preseason. More than normal rookies.
12 team PPR keeper league (inaugural year this year)
My team ended up being:
QB – Andrew Luck
RB – Trent Richardson
RB – David Wilson
WR – Julio Jones
WR – Demaryius Thomas
FLEX (wr/rb/te) – Lamar Miller
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bench – Mike Wallace, Jordy Nelson, Kenny Britt, Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery
Question – I clearly have a lot of WR depth, and while I feel good with my 3 RBs I took, should I move some pieces to try to pick up another deep RB option? Also should I try to upgrade TE?
Thanks in advance!
First off, amazing squad. Hard figuring how you even got some of those big names all on one team. Yes, I would look to trade bench guys only, to upgrade a starter? The only spot worth upgrading is Bennett, or maybe DT into an AJG or Calvin, but past that, man, I stay put! Nelson, Britt, Jeffery, all guys that might get you an upgrade. Cook? Can you trade Bennett and one of those, even two, for Cook? If not, go after J Thomas in DEN.
Have to say Smitty, I was a little skeptical of your rankings when I first joined the site. But as this pre-season progresses I’m agreeing more & more. Just had my redraft ppr league last night, & nabbed a bunch of your fav’s. Trich 1.7, Vereen rd 6, Hilton rd 8, & cook rd 9 just to name a few. Thanks for insight!
Thanks, buddy! We are so “outside the box”, sometimes it throws people off ;). We look down the road, like our Ty Hilton predictions.. They were bold and crazy looking months ago, but now he is everyone’s favorite WR3 buy this year ! Much appreciated!
Hey Smitty, I moved up to to 16th pick overall so I am 4th pick in round 2 . So Im drafting Richardson 1st overall , 2nd going after Julio , 3rd 33rd overall , 4 dez. I traded up for the shot at Julio or Green. In 3rd im targeting miller or ball. or Cam
Love it! Go get ‘em!
Somehow that team I mentioned yesterday is rated as 7th best of 10.
Brees
Dez
Julio
Trent
Pierce
Finley
TY
Matt Prater
Seahawks D
Russell Wilson, Ingram, Golden Tate, Josh Gordon, Christine Michael, Michael Floyd
How in the hell is that 7th out of 10!? Smh. Lol
If it makes you feel any better, my team is often ranked outside the top group when you look at robot rankings by the league management sites. Last year my WRs were middle of the league according to such rankings, and I had AJ Green, Dez and Julio in many leagues last year.
Smitty-
I am in a 12 team .5 ppr, league. We start 2rb/3WR. If Trent doesn’t fall to me at 11 which I think he very well could I’m dead set on your WR/WR strategy as I feel like I’m at the end of a “run” on RBs. Unfortunately I think Mega Tron will be gone as well…
My big question is are you still set on AJ and Julio for WR/WR after AJ’s lack of preseason? I’m tempted to go with Dez due to his ridiculous schedule and hot finish last year. On the bright side I’m fairly certain I can snag both Wilson and Miller at the 3/4 turn then snag TY in the 5th, possibly with Luck in the 6th.
Thanks!!
Yeah, being able to land both Miller and Wilson makes pulling off the WR/WR strategy a no brainer, and given Montee Ball’s dropping value, there are so many RBs to pile up for those 2-3 starting RB spots you need to fill after you go WR/WR.
Yes, AJ Green is my No. 1, but you can’t go wrong with any of the big four. Any one of them, Dez and Julio included, could be this year’s No.1 fantasy WR. It’s close.
Hey Smitty. I’m in a league where you must roster 4RB+4REC+2FLEX:
1pt per reception, 1/2pt per completion & rushing attempt, .1pt per rushing & receiving yard, and .05pt per passing yard.
TDs: <26yd=6pts, 26-50=9pts, 51-75=12pts, +76yds=15pts for QB, RB, REC.
We have 2 IR spots for players with IR, OUT, or SUSP designations.
Start 2RB 2REC 1FLEX
I have Trent McFadden Bradshaw Bernard Vereen Deangelo (+Stewart on IR), and Megatron Demaryius Roddy Cook (+Blackmon on IR). My QBs are Stafford and Ryan.
Finley Givens TAustin VBrown Sanders Jeffery MiFloyd & Harvin are on waivers.
It's FCFS waivers until week 1.
I was thinking about dropping Stewart, putting Harvin on IR, and maybe dropping Cook for Finley, Givens or Vincent Brown. Considering the crazy scoring in this league, how would set this roster up for week 1?
Hey Robert. I pick up Givens in a heartbeat over Stewart, or Harvin. Givens could be huge this year, and should have been drafted.
Nice team.
As for dropping Cook for Finley? What? Might want to check out our Upside Board for more on Cook. If you don’t start TEs at all, I could see picking up Tavon or Givens over Cook, but Cook might still be a fine WR3. If you actually start TEs, which I don’t see, he is pretty high on my rankings
take a look!
As for your line up, it’s tough getting in that mindset of your scoring, but TRich, McFadden, Calvin, Demaryius Roddy are pretty hard to bench. Ryan is the guy I’d start until Stafford proves himself a bit. Not sure there are any other moves to mkae line-up wise, IMO. Way to stay active on the waiver wire, that’s huge for finding that “difference maker”… Givens might be that guy so far, at least with what we know now…
‘preciate it, Smitty. TEs & WRs count as RECs. I’ve always been high on Cook & Finley. I guess there are lots of mouths to feed on both rosters.
I decided to drop Stewart & pick up Harvin and put him on IR with Blackmon, and after your reply, I (reluctantly) dropped Cook for Givens. Thanks again, Smitty. Talk to you soon.
You know it.
Hey Smitty. What’s your strategy for Franklin, now that Harris is on IR? Stash & See?
Well, I have never been mentioning Harris
My stance is the same, Lacy is risky by himself, but him and Franklin cuffed (and again, never mentioned Harris as the cuff) and you all of the sudden have a very sneaky RB2 this year. I love the duo. Alex Green may have something to say about this, but we shall see. This is one of those things where you can cuff the “said” back up, which could be Green (and was Harris), or like my stance, you can predict who the handcuff will be so that by the time the starter (in this case Lacy) goes on a bye, the handcuffs change and you’re holding the wrong guy when time comes to use him. You can miscalculate, sure, and coaches don’t help matters sometimes, as coaches made horrible decisions along these lines… but Franklin is the handcuff in my opinion, regardless of his order on the depth chart right now.
smitty just want to know who u consider RB2 ‘s right of the gate. I know from your rankings you dont trust mjd, stephen jackson, ridley, and r bush is injury prone. Lets say after the al morris / forte are gone . Who do u like in 2nd-3rd round of 12 team .ppr leagues. Especially 2nd round rbs.
Well, any runners you see that are ranked near the top 10-12 that usually (in ADPs) fall past 12. So, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, eventually Montee Ball (who I’ve been called a bit nuts all off-season long for standing my ground on his 2013 upside… things are slowly turning his way, just watch). And Wilson, Miller, even Ball, all could be way better than RB2s this year, but that’s where I draft them because that’s where their values are (Ball more like a flex or RB3 with low-end RB1 upside that everyone will eventually be on board with).
Hey Smitty please let me know what you think about this squad 12 team non ppr
Jamaal Charles
steven jackson
Lamar miller
Victor cruz
Andrew Luck
T.Y Hilton
Shane Vereen
Josh Gordon
Ben Tate
Ronnie Hillman
Chris Givens
Deandre Hopkins
Cordarrelle Patterson
Jordan Cameron
Seattle D
Nice work. I like a few WRs in that 2nd over SJax, but I’m addmittedly bias against SJax this year for some reason. He could totally prove me wrong, but I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him into a Julio Jones given Lamar Miller/Vereen could take care of you at that RB2 spot. Regardless, it’s a good squad, full of nice sleepers.
Luck
Charles/SJax/Miller/Vereen
Cruz/Hilton/Gordon/Givens
vs.
Luck
Charles/Miller/Vereen
Julio/Hilton/Gordon/Givens
I guess I just see more balance getting that WR while Jackson’s value is so high. Some have him as a top 10 overall player this year, some worry about him as a top 20 overall player. No one is right – yet. So, trust your gut, but that’s my thought. Keep up the good GMing!
Smitty, following your rankings and I love all my teams. I have 2 more drafts left my big money leagues I used a bunch of small money yahoo and cbs to see how my teams would look. I already locked dez in 4th round. And with 1st pick taking Richardson especially cause its 1 player keeper and want him over Martin next year. In round 2 i think I get green or julio but based on cbs rankings in which they have 28 rb’s in first 43 picks , rb2 gets thin super quick. I do like Julio and green over mjd, chris johnson, r bush, ridley , s jackson etc but in round 3 miller and d wilson always are gone. Keeping Dez in 4th i d have to gamble on Ball in 3rd or hopefully get him or bernard in 5th. If they gone im screwed rb2. Thoughts? 12 team . 5 ppr
Sounds solid. Ball in the third is too early, not because he can’t be that good (he can be way better), but that’s not using ADPs to your advantage! Everything else sound golden! Go get ‘em!
Smitty, I have 1st pick tomorrow night (probably tonight by the time you read this) in an inaugural keeper league draft. Long story short, I was offered 12th & 13th pick for 1st & 24th pick, do you think I’m better off keeping my position with 1st pick, 24th, 25th & so on or moving to 12th, 13th, 25th & so on….?
I kinda like it, because you can go WR/WR (2 of the top 4 only, though) and land the grip of Wilson, Miller, Vereen, Ball, Gio rushers! But can you get a small bump? Like your 5th to a 4th type of swap? If you think Julio can fall to your 24, maybe I don’t trade, though. He doesn’t usually fall that late, though, but you gotta ask yourself that one.
Smitty, looove your site! Last year, I picked up Doug Martin and Dez in my 14 team redraft, and got made fun of. I ended up dominating, especially at the end of the year when it counted. So, now I have the 8th pick this year and think T.Rich, Julio and Miller are realistic pick ups at my slot. This might be a amateur question, but would you give up picking Miller in the 3rd rd to take an RGIII, and try to grab Ball/Gio later? (We start 1 qb, 2 WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1 Flex, 0.5 ppr). I know there are a lot of factors, but it’s a decision that’s been weighing on me before my draft this weekend. Last year and the year before I waited on Cam and Russell Wilson. This year, you don’t seem to have a super sleeper qb pick, so I feel like I need to act quick on QB. Thanks.
Don’t pick RG3 so early, Miller is the easy call. Gio and Ball later would be great, too, and both should fall far enough that you can get at least one and RG3. If not, some other big names will fall that shouldn’t. Don’t reach.
Smitty what do you think of this team? 12 team PPR redraft league. I’m a beginner, so I’m wondering if my team is salvageable after a few trades. Any suggestions?
1. (8) Trent Richardson (Cle – RB)
2. (17) A.J. Green (Cin – WR)
3. (32) Cam Newton (Car – QB)
4. (41) David Wilson (NYG – RB)
5. (56) Vernon Davis (SF – TE)
6. (65) Chris Ivory (NYJ – RB)
7. (80) T.Y. Hilton (Ind – WR)
8. (89) Kenny Britt (Ten – WR)
9. (104) Ryan Broyles (Det – WR)
10. (113) Alshon Jeffery (Chi – WR)
11. (128) Jordan Cameron (Cle – TE)
12. (137) Andy Dalton (Cin – QB)
13. (152) Jacquizz Rodgers (Atl – RB)
14. (161) Christine Michael (Sea – RB)
15. (176) David Akers (Det – K)
16. (185) New York (NYG – DEF)
Welcome, beewey! We will guide you through the season, my friend! Be sure to create a forum ID as well (grab the same name) and get some help from even more than just myself, we have the best group on the planet on our forum!
As for your team. Salvageable? Dude, you rocked the house on this one!
First off, Trent Richardson is my No. 1 RB, and AJ Green is my No. 1 WR. And Cam Newton is arguably top 1-3 for QBs this year, and David Wilson is No. 2 on my Bold Predictions Upside Board for 2013! Christine Michael, dude, the entire team is a DraftCalc approved team, you sure you didn’t subscribe before your draft, it’s practically 80% like the teams we are trying to help all users acquire.
Did your league mates make you think you walked away needing to make trades? Don’t trade: Green, TRich, Newton, D-Wilson, Hilton, Jeffery or Michael! Don’t let anyone talk you out of those names!!!!
One can always upgrade, and trade… so try to trade Kenny Britt, Ivory for a Julio, Dez, Calvin or Demaryius Thomas… past that, I wouldn’t touch this squad. While others are NOT in the know about some of these breakouts, I’d give your team a 9 out of 10, dude.
Thanks for the feedback Smitty! I feel a little more relieved now. I did subscribe to DraftCalc before my draft, but I didn’t really have time to read any of your posts until the day of my draft. It helped a lot though.
I’ll create a forum ID today and hopefully I can learn a lot this season from everyone on the site.
Well, you killed it in your draft. If anyone is telling you other wise, like when people send new guys trade offers that say “dude, you need a RB2 bad, do this trade with me…” that’s not what time it is, my man! You will be putting a clinic on each Sunday. Hang tight, and BEFORE you do any trades, be CERTAIN to run them buy some folks on our forums!!! Easiest way for a new person to fantasy football to crash and burn is to get suckered into a trade. Let DC Nation help you keep this team the way it is.
Ok, so…..here’s the team I ended up with. Have never been more torn on my opinion of my own team.
QB – Romo
WR – Miles Austin
WR – Chris Givens
RB – Adrian Peterson
RB – Trent Richardson
Flex – Lamar Miller
TE – Finley
K – Randy Bullock
D – Dallas but will be streaming
Bench – Stafford, Josh Gordon, Justin Blackmon, Deandre Hopkins, Christine Michael, Joique Bell
Well, you can’t go RB/RB/RB (even if one is/was a keeper) and feel super good about your WRs, that’s just the way that strategy goes. That’s one reason I’m not super high on that approach, and why I love the WR/WR this year. That said, you could make a couple trades, if not one, and turn this into a team that won’t allow you to sleep a wink the night before opening day.
Your best chip to sell, Adrian Peterson.
Not sure who the Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant owners have, but acquiring a Montee Ball and one of those guys (and more if you can) is something I’d attack. Or, get a QB upgrade, trading Romo in for only one of these guys: Brees, Brady, Manning, Newton, Rodgers, and get one of Jones, AJG, Dez.
All that said, does team two below even look better than team one to you? It does to me, but I’m a bit bold
Romo, Peterson, Richardson, Miller, Givens, Austin
or
Romo, Richardson, Miller, Ball, AJ Green, Givens (then upgrade Romo into Cam or something using Gordon, Austin, Stafford?)
Your team is fine, but I hear ya on not liking unbalanced squads.
Smitty whats up man good article. If someone dropped leveon bell in my 12 team redraft do I drop christine michael ryan broyles alshon jeffrey or deandre hopkins for him? All bench guys for me and we start 2 rb 3 wr no flex. Thanks
Broyles or Hopkins. Don’t drop Michael! There is a reason he is one of my most recommend “secret weapon” type stashes in fantasy this year.