Ready for Week 1 Start Bench Advice in April?
Yep, that’s right, we are well over four months away from the start of the 2013 fantasy football season, yet we already have start ‘em and sit ‘em advice published!
Before we get to it, don’t forget to check out our Week 1 Projections.
Let’s get to it!
By Smitty
First off, given how far off Week 1 is, we are making a lot of assumptions below, and with grips of injuries, player movements, and more, to come, know that we will provide another update closer to the actual kickoff of Week 1. So, enjoy the following with an open mind, and expect a lot to change in the coming weeks and months.
David Wilson (@DAL)
While it seems like a no-brainer to some to start David Wilson right out of the gate in 2013, many dynasty fantasy owners may find themselves in situations where Wilson was their third runner exiting last season. If that’s you, great job, but now it’s dilemma time! Sure, those in such a situation had hoped this day would come, but it’s always tough to know when to shove a “breakout” player into one of your two starting running back slots. Well, Dallas surrenders 125 rushing yards per game, and they give up just over 1 rushing score per outing… given that their passing defense is merely mediocre, Wilson should be setup to shine in his first start. Is Andre Brown out of the picture yet? No, in fact, the Andre Brown fan clubs seems to be growing pretty fast. Could Brown be a factor this year? Sure. Could he steal major touches away from Wilson? Sure, and he is absolutely a fantastic handcuff for those going big on Wilson’s 2013 breakout… While anything is possible, and Brown is a talented player, Wilson is on a whole separate talent level than Brown, the kind of level that could have him finishing 2013 as a top five fantasy running back. Need more convincing on his long-term upside? Read our Upside Board!
Week 1 Projections: 90-100 rushing yards, 4 receptions for 40-45 yards, 2TDs
Shane Vereen (@BUF)
The Bills ranked second-to-last in 2012 against the run, so honestly, both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are great starts in Week 1! Not many will bench Ridley, but a ton of Vereen owners out there may consider benching Vereen. Now, don’t go sitting a stud for Vereen or anything, but if you are light at running back, due to injury, or drafting style, Vereen is a very sneaky play in Week 1, especially in PPR formats. Ridley isn’t even on the field in passing situations, and pulled in just 6 receptions all year in 2012… Vereen is the receiving back in that New England offense, and he is one of my favorite runners to own for later on in the season. Whether it be due to injury, or necessity, I predict that Vereen starts producing sneaky RB2-type numbers by Week 8 or 9. I could be a year early on this one, at least in terms of predicting that monster breakout performance by Vereen, but I think he is a productive PPR start all season long, even if Ridley remains the first- and second-down back in all of 2012. However, I don’t think I’m a year early on this one, though, and you can read more on why via my 2013 Bold Predictions!
Week 1 Projections: 50 rushing yards, 4 receptions for 55 yards, 1TD
By JRMRRT
This feature calls out players that could outshine some more well-known starts.
I will also occasionally call out match-up scenarios.
Lamar Miller (@CLE)
The Miami Dolphins are on record as committing to Lamar Miller as their feature running back for this coming season and have backed that statement up by letting Reggie Bush sign elsewhere. Miller has ideal size at 5’10″ and 218 lbs and above average speed running an official 4.40 forty at his combine which led all rookie RBs last year. The addition of Mike Wallace to the Dolphins receiving corps makes Miller an even more appealing option for this coming season as well.
Lamar Miller has all the tools to be a 3 down back and with the opportunity the Dolphins are giving him I am projecting 110 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD and 4 catches with 30 receiving yards week 1. Even-though Miller is unproven to this point I am starting him week one over proven options such as:
Bench ‘Em for Lamar Miller
- Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. KC) – While MJD has been proving himself for a while now, it’s the “for a while” part that has me concerned, and he has been getting nicked up a bit lately, too. Sooner or later his role is going to be scaled back because of age, mileage and proneness to injury.
- Frank Gore (vs. GB) – Everything said about MJD applies to Gore as well.
- Matt Forte (vs. CIN) – With Forte, I’m just concerned as to how the new staff is going to use him and how committed to him they are going to be.
- Stevan Ridley (@BUF) – I’m starting Miller over a young proven guy like Ridley for 2 reasons. Number 1 is because Ridley is the closer in a lot of situations for the Patriots and if they do not get up big, or the game is close, he could get game planned right out by Belichik. Number 2 is because he does not catch any balls and sometimes he is not even on the field during passing situations, as that is Shane Vereen’s job, who could also see a much larger role this year.
Final Thoughts on Lamar Miller Entering Week 1
Miami should be putting a balanced offense on the field this season with Miller as their feature back. Players like Lamar Miller have me itching for the 2013 fantasy football season to get started.
Cam Newton (vs. SEA) vs. Russell Wilson (@CAR)
I’m sure many of you in the DC Nation, like me, have both Cam Newton and Russell Wilson at QB as these are popular DC guys. Well, as luck would have it they face off against one another week one in Carolina and present a tough choice for us owners. Do we choose the more proven elite player with the tough match-up at home, or the up and coming young stud with the better match-up on the road?
My choice: Russell Wilson.
I know Cam Newton is the elite player here. I also know he’s at home and you should always go with your studs but I just can’t overlook the the match-up. Seattle’s defense is stellar and should be even better this year while Wilson is facing the much easier Panthers’ defense. Wilson played well on the road last year and even slightly out played Newton in this exact match-up in week 5, also in Carolina. That was even before Wilson got comfortable in the offense and had the playbook opened up to him by Pete Carroll. Newton failed to even get the ball in the end-zone 1 time in that game, through the air or on the ground and only threw for 141 yards. Both players finished the season very strong posting elite numbers but I am more confident that Wilson will be able to carry that momentum over into this season against the Panthers. Tough choice DC Nation, but Russell Wilson will be my guy week 1. Good luck this year to everyone in the DC Nation.
Forum discussion: View Discussion
Our Week 1 Player Projections are sortable, so that you can list only running backs, quarterbacks, wide receivers or tight ends individually. Or, you can list all positions at once. We also have a PPR and non-PPR sorting option. Your line-up decisions just got a whole lot easier!
I have to choose 3 RBs to start week 1 from Spiller, Charles, Murray, Wilson and Miller. Spiller and Charles are an easy choice but Murray, Wilson and Miller is much more difficult.
Dallas d-line will be weak this year smallest in the league i believe and little talent..i like wilson as well.
Wow. I go Wilson, unless that situation becomes more cloudy heading into Week 1, in which case I’d clearly update my Wilson predictions above. Great job with that roster! Looks like you better send out some trade offers, unless you’re that stacked at WR and QB, then stay put!
Great read up, as always.
Only thing I disagree with is the benching of Forte over Miller, especially in PPR. With Trestman and his passing heavy philosophy, I would be very comfortable starting Forte in a PPR format. Lovie was terrible last year at utilizing Forte in the passing game.
It’s bold – for now. I love Forte, but I also love Miller. I think both will thrive this year, assuming both stay healthy. I like the bold stance, but could understand anyone disagreeing. That’s why it’s bold.
Whansen1202, what player stands out to you, Lamar Miller-like in perceived value, that you would bench big names for? Toss one out similar to the one JR gave us in Miller? It’s a fun topic, I’m curious to hear some other bold faceoffs.
Why not Darren McFadden at the Colts in Week 1? I’m not high on McFadden staying healthy the whole season, but at least for Week 1, with Oakland getting rid of the zone blocking scheme, beginning of a contract year, Colts D not the greatest….I would play McFadden over any running back not named Richardson, Martin, Spiller or Foster.
That’s a great one.
I actually love McFadden this year, given his 4th-round value. Even at 3rd-round value. I think he is so low-risk right there, with the upside of a top 5RB. Great player to call out!
Look for more on him in the next edition of Six Burning Questions, which I hope to crank out soon. He will be on that article, no doubt.
Also, not only will be cracking that article, keep an eye on the Upside Board this weekend
McFadden could be on it.
Actually, check the Upside Board now, you gave away my secret with your DraftCalc like thinking, So I just went ahead and saved the change. It’s live.
Haha. Sorry Smitty for outting your secret, but that is what you get for making the great past calls (for me, it was Dez and Spiller) about players with low risk and high upside. You got me thinking like this all the time now.
I was totally kidding. You calling him out early just “motivated” me to post it early. I’m glad you said McFadden. The sooner we all jump on these undervalued guys the more likely we will pull off buy-low deals before their values increase. So nice work!
Smitty,
Awesome stuff again and thank you in advance.
12 team, .5 PPR league.
QB, 2RB, 2WR, FLEX (RB,WR,TE), TE
My Roster:
QB: Romo, Big Ben
RB: Rice, MJD, D.Murray, R.Mathews
WR: Marshall, TY, Mike Williams, L.Moore, K.Thompkins, A.Dobson
TE: F.Davis
Who to start in week1?