Bust Canidates???????????

Let's toss out some names and why!

Cordarelle Patterson. Early dynasty ADP data that have seen have Patterson coming off the board as WR10 with and ADP of 2.07/2.08. Now I know this is dynasty ADP, so most owners drafting him here aren't doing so with the expectation of a top 10 season in 2014. They're looking to buy a future top 3 WR at top 10 prices now. I think it's insanely risky.

For all the size/speed/ability that Patterson possesses, he is still extremely raw. I believe he still doesn't have a firm grasp on the full route tree, and that he had to be force fed the ball on gadget plays for him to get his production. Some like to point out his top 3-4 finish over the last month of the season. While I think that it's reason to be optimistic, Patterson's production was heavily inflated by a TDs. 7 offensive TDs on 57 touches in 2013. That's an insane TD ratio that is unsustainable. We all know how unpredictable TDs can be. So this is what I'm skeptical about with Patterson, and we haven't even touched on his questionable situation yet...

The point is, I like Patterson, and his upside is pretty insane. However, at this point the upside is pretty much gone with Patterson if he's commanding top 10 WR prices. You need Patterson to explode to break even with him. This is the same situation we ran into last year with the likes of Wilson/Miller. Plus, until Patterson can master a full route tree, his usage is going to be very inconsistent IMO.

I owned Patterson in several leagues early in 2013, and sold him in all of them. I'm not upset about it because I landed young studs every time I moved Patterson. I'd like to own him again, but with his upside now cooked into his price, it's too much risk for me.

branch0095 said:

Cordarelle Patterson. Early dynasty ADP data that have seen have Patterson coming off the board as WR10 with and ADP of 2.07/2.08. Now I know this is dynasty ADP, so most owners drafting him here aren't doing so with the expectation of a top 10 season in 2014. They're looking to buy a future top 3 WR at top 10 prices now. I think it's insanely risky.

For all the size/speed/ability that Patterson possesses, he is still extremely raw. I believe he still doesn't have a firm grasp on the full route tree, and that he had to be force fed the ball on gadget plays for him to get his production. Some like to point out his top 3-4 finish over the last month of the season. While I think that it's reason to be optimistic, Patterson's production was heavily inflated by a TDs. 7 offensive TDs on 57 touches in 2013. That's an insane TD ratio that is unsustainable. We all know how unpredictable TDs can be. So this is what I'm skeptical about with Patterson, and we haven't even touched on his questionable situation yet...

The point is, I like Patterson, and his upside is pretty insane. However, at this point the upside is pretty much gone with Patterson if he's commanding top 10 WR prices. You need Patterson to explode to break even with him. This is the same situation we ran into last year with the likes of Wilson/Miller. Plus, until Patterson can master a full route tree, his usage is going to be very inconsistent IMO.

I owned Patterson in several leagues early in 2013, and sold him in all of them. I'm not upset about it because I landed young studs every time I moved Patterson. I'd like to own him again, but with his upside now cooked into his price, it's too much risk for me.

It's possible. He could be a stud, too, but definitely a great name that has signs of breakout and signs of risk! Nice work.

No position had more busts last year than RB. Most of those due to injuries. I'm gonna go with Demarco Murray. I know he tore it up last year, but he has never played a full season. In his 3 seasons he's played 13, 10, 14 games. He's sure to be in the top 10 rbs ,which will most likely make him a 2nd round pick. When he suits up he's a beast, but the price is a lot to pay for a guy who you hope can play 13 or 14 games. I'd also throw Jordan Reed out there. His physical skills are off the charts, but the concussion history scares me. I'd love to have him on my team if he falls below his ADP, but I get the Jahvid Best quivers when I think about drafting him. Both these players will make someone very happy if they stay healthy, but I'll prob draft someone less risky. Unless the price is right of course.

N Foles
M Forte
Josh Gordon
Julius Thomas

I'm picking players who outperformed their ADP tremendously, that, IMO, will not meet their 2014 ADP expectations...

N Foles being drafted after Rodgers, Brees, and Peyton?

Forte in the top 5 picks?

Gordon after Calvin?

JT the same round as Gronk?

Yikes...

Jamaal Charles and AP.

I think we will begin to see signs of wear this year with AP and at his current ADP, I think he falls short.

I see JC as more of an injury bust. That Work load was huge last year for such a little guy. Similar to AP in 2013 after his 2012 monster workload.

Also love the Gordon and Foles picks.

Bump! Look at what we thought who was going to be last year!

https://draftcalc.com/forums/discussion/4301/biggest-bust-candidate-heading-into-2013/p1

Ryan Matthews not in the same tier as the above named but played well above adp, if healthy he's fine but as with d Murray I'd bet he's not healthy for the majority if his games.

The Cowboys Dez Bryant, he is easily ranked as a top 5 WR in 2014 and a perfect BUST candidate. The Dallas Cowboys went out and hired new OC Scott Linehan which will make us FF owners giddy. If you look at what Linehan has done with Calvin Johnson you would think Dez should benefit from the Cowboys new play caller. I believe strongly when Dez Bryant doesn't produce Megatron stats, his "self destructive behavior" will produce a MEGABUST in 2014. When you have to set behavioral rules for a grown man and babysit him every time he wipes his a**, the sh*t will eventually hit the fan. But this is not even the main issue, the Cowboys have many (CORRECTION) I will leave it at one "JERRY JONES!"

IMO. -Shmiily ")

Hey now....We're America's team...

Can we revote on Americas team?

Reisssox said:

Hey now....We're America's team...

No doubt America's team are the Cowboys and at emurrell17 no revote allowed. Sure would love to hear some of your bust candidates though.

-Shmily ")

Patterson seems to be this offseasons David Wilson. I predict him being a 2nd or third round pick by august. It's not just here that's hyping him up, it seems to be everywhere. Not saying he will bust, but he will likely be out-hyped out of any value he could possibly have by next years redrafts.

fontaines said:

Patterson seems to be this offseasons David Wilson. I predict him being a 2nd or third round pick by august. It's not just here that's hyping him up, it seems to be everywhere. Not saying he will bust, but he will likely be out-hyped out of any value he could possibly have by next years redrafts.

I agree with that. He is a special player though and never prone to injuries and never had legal issues or attitude problems. I think he's probably worth a 3rd but you are right there won't be much value there.

Ray Rice; I just know Kube's will not use him effectively.

Also Frank Gore; already hit age 30 already and was complaining about lack of carries this season already. He's got Hunter, James, and now Lattimore all behind him ready to step up.

Surely rice's adp won't be too high.

emurrell17 said:

Surely rice's adp won't be too high.

Yeah, my guess is he's in the 4th round in redraft.

LACY!! being drafted in the top 10 i see trouble here..he has injury risk.

TBL said:

Jamaal Charles and AP.

I think we will begin to see signs of wear this year with AP and at his current ADP, I think he falls short.

I see JC as more of an injury bust. That Work load was huge last year for such a little guy. Similar to AP in 2013 after his 2012 monster workload.

I concur TBL.

Reisssox said:

Hey now....We're America's team...

I never understood this, lol. Who anointed the Cowboys as America's team anyway?

Howdy, Stranger!

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