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  • bddavidson March 20
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  • emurrell17 March 20
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  • emurrell17 11:20PM
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  • Dynasty Only!!!
Montee Ball...
  • SmittySmitty
    Posts: 7,577
    It's funny, I've heard a few tell me lately that his "upside" is diminished a ton due to his rising ADP, but I continue to see people undervaluing Ball. His ADP is in the 3rd to 4th round at it's highest (in all formats), yet his Upside remains RB1 like, even first-round bound. I'd say his ceiling is top 5 overall. So, i guess my question is, how does he not STILL have amazing value in all leagues?

    Is there risk? Sure, Moreno could be resigned, but even then, the team has made it clear Ball is their No. 1 moving forward, and if Moreno danced with the top 5RBs last year (in some leagues he finished top 5), Ball is going to have an even bigger year if healthy and on the field. So, the risk is low given the cost (3rd- to 4th).

    Perspective: I'm in a contract league where Ball has just a 1 year deal... I was talking to an owner about taking Lynch straight up... i backed out. Lynch has an awful yardage game log down the stretch in 2014, could face a suspension, is nearing 2000 touches, is turning 28 and has 7 big-time workload seasons behind him... Ball is a proven TD guy from college and is now inserted into the highest scoring offense in the league. 


    - Smitty | Owner/Founder
  • SweetLewSweetLew March 20
    Posts: 1,167
    He was taken in 1 startup I did a month ago at 2.11... not much upside there.
  • SmittySmitty March 20
    Posts: 7,577
    Still has upside there if he is a top 5RB, @Swampies. I wouldn't take him there because in most cases you don't have to, but how is there still not upside at 2.11? I wouldn't be shocked at all if his ADP starts climbing into the 2.01 range near August. I think many are waiting for the Moreno 'elsewhere' signing to be official. 2.11 still a ton of upside (but again, use ADPs no question, unless you're Swampies and you continue to play in leagues where all DC players are ranked higher).
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder
  • SwampiesSwampies March 20
    Posts: 3,308
    Smitty said:

    Still has upside there if he is a top 5RB, @Swampies. I wouldn't take him there because in most cases you don't have to, but how is there still not upside at 2.11? I wouldn't be shocked at all if his ADP starts climbing into the 2.01 range near August. I think many are waiting for the Moreno 'elsewhere' signing to be official. 2.11 still a ton of upside (but again, use ADPs no question, unless you're Swampies and you continue to play in leagues where all DC players are ranked higher).




    ah wrong guy @Smitty I think you ment @sweetLew
    My league is a non PPR 12 person league having a roster of 19 players each. Active roster includes 1Qb 2Rb's 3Wr's 1Te 1K 1Def. Two weeks before draft we cut the roster down to 9 keepers. My team as of now:
    QB Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Josh McCown
    RB Lamar Miller, Shane Vereen, Zac Stacy, Cierre Wood
    WR AJ Green, Julio Jones, Josh Gordon, Rueben Randle, Kenny Stills
    TE Z Ertz, M. Bennett, Delanie Walker
    DEF Kansas City, Cleveland
    K Steven Hauschka

    (I'm not a expert but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!)
  • SweetLewSweetLew March 20
    Posts: 1,167
    Ya but as my RB1 I just can't do it... not yet I believe this guy took AJ #2 overall and Ball next just me but Idk can't take him as my RB1.
  • SmittySmitty March 20
    Posts: 7,577
    SweetLew said:

    Ya but as my RB1 I just can't do it... not yet I believe this guy took AJ #2 overall and Ball next just me but Idk can't take him as my RB1.



    Your league having him go at 2.11 is a bit unusual (for now), and I'm not saying 2.01 is amazing value anymore (once/if he gets there)... he still has a higher ceiling than 2.01 IMO, so I guess you could argue upside, but risk goes up at 2.01. Point is, his ADP is NOT 2.11 and that is not typical (yet). Even at 2.11, though, he has huge upside still, but you can't take him there on average until that ADP climbs. 

    His current dynasty ADP is absolutely ON AVERAGE the 3rd round, not 2nd. One league can be an outlier, no question.

    @swampies sorry buddy, haha.
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder
  • SwampiesSwampies March 20
    Posts: 3,308
    Knowshon Moreno - RB - Broncos
    Broncos GM John Elway said there's "no question we have to be better in the run game."
    It suggests that Elway was not happy with the performance of free agent Knowshon Moreno, who averaged 4.30 YPC last season while facing extremely run-friendly defensive fronts. We haven't heard a single peep of interest around the league regarding Moreno and ESPN's Jeff Legwold says the Broncos "haven't made much of a move" to bring him back.
    My league is a non PPR 12 person league having a roster of 19 players each. Active roster includes 1Qb 2Rb's 3Wr's 1Te 1K 1Def. Two weeks before draft we cut the roster down to 9 keepers. My team as of now:
    QB Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Josh McCown
    RB Lamar Miller, Shane Vereen, Zac Stacy, Cierre Wood
    WR AJ Green, Julio Jones, Josh Gordon, Rueben Randle, Kenny Stills
    TE Z Ertz, M. Bennett, Delanie Walker
    DEF Kansas City, Cleveland
    K Steven Hauschka

    (I'm not a expert but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!)
  • SmittySmitty March 20
    Posts: 7,577
    Moreno was no 4 in scoring last year in one league I'm in, that's with Ball having some big games near the end of 2013. Top 1-5 is easily doable if no wrenches are thrown into the equation.
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder
  • SmittySmitty March 20
    Posts: 7,577
    Moving Montee Ball all into my top five on both the dynasty and redraft rankings. Yep, only these guys rank ahead of him (as soon as I hit save):

    Redraft

    1. LeSean McCoy
    2. Jamaal Charles
    3. Adrian Peyerson
    4. Matt Forte
    5. Montee Ball

    .. Dynasty the only change is Ball goes to 4.

    Draft and trade using ADP data, which has Ball as a high third rounder at most (on average), but the ceiling is top 5!
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder
  • bddavidsonbddavidson March 20
    Posts: 12,573
    Smitty said:

    Moving Montee Ball all into my top five on both the dynasty and redraft rankings. Yep, only these guys rank ahead of him (as soon as I hit save):

    Redraft

    1. LeSean McCoy
    2. Jamaal Charles
    3. Adrian Peyerson
    4. Matt Forte
    5. Montee Ball

    .. Dynasty the only change is Ball goes to 4.

    Draft and trade using ADP data, which has Ball as a high third rounder at most (on average), but the ceiling is top 5!



    @Smittynot sure this will work but would you trade miller/1-10 for montee if you could?i going assume yes.
    DC Nation Moderator
  • SmittySmitty March 20
    Posts: 7,577
    bddavidson said:

    Smitty said:

    Moving Montee Ball all into my top five on both the dynasty and redraft rankings. Yep, only these guys rank ahead of him (as soon as I hit save):

    Redraft

    1. LeSean McCoy
    2. Jamaal Charles
    3. Adrian Peyerson
    4. Matt Forte
    5. Montee Ball

    .. Dynasty the only change is Ball goes to 4.

    Draft and trade using ADP data, which has Ball as a high third rounder at most (on average), but the ceiling is top 5!



    @Smittynot sure this will work but would you trade miller/1-10 for montee if you could?i going assume yes.


    In trade the 1.02 and Miller for Ball.
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder
  • JRMRRTJRMRRT March 20
    Posts: 11,850
    Id easily give Miller/1.10 for Ball...in a heartbeat.
    ________________________________________________________

    DC Nation Forum Moderator
  • bddavidsonbddavidson March 20
    Posts: 12,573
    JRMRRT said:

    Id easily give Miller/1.10 for Ball...in a heartbeat.



    thinking of offering not sure how high the owner is on ball but most likely gets rejected.
    DC Nation Moderator
  • LukeB5301LukeB5301 March 20
    Posts: 7,949
    I'd give Miller for a dog turd, I can't even get that for him good luck
    My 2013 Predictions:
    [:(] C.J. Spiller Will Be The #1RB(Jan 9th)
    [XXX] Demaryius Thomas will be the #1 scoring WR!(Feb 13th)
    [XXX] Trent Richardson will NOT finish as a Top 10 RB!(June 4th)
    [:(] Rob Housler will be a Top 5 TE in 2013!(July 18th)
    [XXX] Josh Gordon will put up a 80/1200/10 stat line in just 14 Games!(Sept 5th)
  • Whos_Ur_Doggie March 20
    Posts: 12,891
    JRMRRT said:

    Id easily give Miller/1.10 for Ball...in a heartbeat.



    Yeah, I'm not really high on Ball but would do this pretty easily.
    DC Nation Moderator
  • donvaughndonvaughn March 20
    Posts: 1,338
    LukeB5301 said:

    I'd give Miller for a dog turd, I can't even get that for him good luck



    I'll take the dog turd
    DC Superflex Dynasty. PPR. 4pt passing tds (1QB,2RB,3WR,1TE,1QB/RB/WR/TE)
    QB-P.Rivers, C.Palmer, B.Osweiler, R.Mallet
    RB-J.Charles, A.Ellington, K.Robinson, F.Jackson, S.Taylor, M.Leshoure
    WR-D.Thomas, B.Marshall, C.Patterson, D.Hopkins, M.Jones, M.Wilson
    TE-G.Olsen, L.Green
    Rookie Picks-1.10,2.05,3.01,3.05,4.02
  • SmittySmitty March 20
    Posts: 7,577
    donvaughn said:

    LukeB5301 said:

    I'd give Miller for a dog turd, I can't even get that for him good luck



    I'll take the dog turd


    Too bad Miami doesnt know there is silver inside the turd.
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder
  • JRMRRTJRMRRT March 20
    Posts: 11,850
    Are we dismissing Miller too early because he burned so many of us? Was it him or the fact that his O-line was completely decimated?
    ________________________________________________________

    DC Nation Forum Moderator
  • wh0urdady March 20
    Posts: 1,579
    JRMRRT said:

    Are we dismissing Miller too early because he burned so many of us? Was it him or the fact that his O-line was completely decimated?



    I thought it was mainly the coaching.
    QB: Brady, Kaepernick
    RB: McCoy, Miller, Stacy,F. Jackson, Lattimore, R. Jennings, Gerhart, L. Murray
    WR: Cruz, Blackmon, Gordon, Jeffery
    TE: J. Thomas

    Will have to drop to 12 before draft
  • SwampiesSwampies March 20
    Posts: 3,308
    wh0urdady said:

    JRMRRT said:

    Are we dismissing Miller too early because he burned so many of us? Was it him or the fact that his O-line was completely decimated?



    I thought it was mainly the coaching.



    both

    the coaching and O line
    My league is a non PPR 12 person league having a roster of 19 players each. Active roster includes 1Qb 2Rb's 3Wr's 1Te 1K 1Def. Two weeks before draft we cut the roster down to 9 keepers. My team as of now:
    QB Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Josh McCown
    RB Lamar Miller, Shane Vereen, Zac Stacy, Cierre Wood
    WR AJ Green, Julio Jones, Josh Gordon, Rueben Randle, Kenny Stills
    TE Z Ertz, M. Bennett, Delanie Walker
    DEF Kansas City, Cleveland
    K Steven Hauschka

    (I'm not a expert but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!)
  • TheHuddleTheHuddle March 20
    Posts: 1,671

    its all the coach.......lol

     

    these coaches know nothing like DC nation.

     

    I would buy Miller but people still give him high value

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