I don't think we can hold AP to the downhill at 30 standard because he's clearly unlike every other RB. He's a physical freak. He'll train relentlessly and still has a shot at Emmitt's record if he can put up a couple more monster years. I think he can play at an elite level for 2-3 more years and then gradually decline til about age 34.

I think 2. Nothing wrong with him after two probably but I think he begins to drop out of the elite conversation then. Minnesota will eventually have to start taking away a few carries a game to preserve him and I think that's when it happens

I'll say 3 more years of RB1 production. Maybe low RB1 production in 2016, but I think he's a lock to be a top 6 back for the next 2 years if he's on the field.

Wouldn't Minnesota likely cut him before the 2016 season based on his salary? He will be 31 going into that season with well over 2000 touches. That could likely speed up his transition to a RBBC.

I doubted AP before and was wrong, but I do think he has to slowdown at some point. I'm going with 2 years as a rb1 and a strong drop off after that.

I just threw out some ballpark numbers. I really do think he's got another big 1500+ season in him and I think he could get the rushing title the next two years if healthy.

branch0095 said:

donvaughn said:

Thought I'd do some research into AP's chances of breaking Emmitt's record. I think that could be a driving force in him to continue training hard enough to play til age 34 (Emmitt played til 35). AP did start his career a year later than Emmitt as well at age 22, while Emmitt started at 21. I think 34 is a realistic age to play til considering his desire and physical freakness. Currently AP has 10,057 rushing yds. Emmitt finished with 18,355. Obviously a serious injury or 2,000yd season would tilt this dramatically in one way or another, but he's right there. The next couple years of prime will largely determine his chances.
2014-1500  age 29
2015-1500  age 30
2016-1400  age 31
2017-1200  age 32
2018-1000  age 33
2019-1000  age 34
TOTAL-17,657    

If you projected this kind of production with ANY other RB, I'd say you're nuts. I'll never doubt AP though, so this is very feasible IMO.

For comparison sake this is emmitt's numbers
Age 29-1332
Age 30-1397
Age 31-1203
Age 32-1021
Age 33-975
Age 34-256
Age 35-937

I wrote this "30 year old RB" article a while ago:

https://draftcalc.com/fantasy-football-content/articles/dc-university-30-years-old-the-age-of-decline-for-running-backs/

Date: June 2012

Breaking It All Down

As you can see above, very few elite fantasy football rushers have ever played at an elite level during their 31-age season. Of the players listed above, only Curtis Martin, Thomas Jones and Emmitt Smith cranked out high-level numbers during that 31-age season, and while Jerome Bettis had a 941 yards and 13TDs during his 32-age season, he is kind of an outlier, plus, he produced those numbers after two seasons already on the decline.

All in all, it’s safe to say that if a player is entering a season at the age of 31, that player will not likely play at an elite level ever again.. For example, take LaDainian Tomlinson, arguably one of fantasy football’s top fantasy rusher of all time… it’s hard to believe this, but Tomlinson didn’t even make it to 30… he played 11 NFL seasons, and had eight 1,000-yard campaigns, but he went from being an 1,110-yard, 11TD rusher at 29, to a 730-yard rusher at the age of 30. He did run for 914 yards at 31, but only had 6TDs… even Tomlinson couldn’t navigate into his thirties at an elite level. He was serviceable, sure, but far from elite.

Priest Holmes dropped off after his dominating 30-age season, where he rushed for 27TDs… he had 14TDs that next season at the age of 31, but he only rushed for 892 yards, missed eight games and never rushed for over 500 yards in one season ever again. I guess you could say that half of Holmes’ 31-age season was elite, because it was, but because injury struck that year and it was his absolute decline, it’s important to note that he crashed and burned during the age of 31 regardless of how well started that year.

Shaun Alexander has to be considered one of fantasy football’s most dominate running backs, and he couldn’t even make it to 29 years of age. Alexander ran for 27TDs at 28, then rushed for 896 yards and 7TDs at 29… he was never the same again.

While Marashall Faulk offered up a lot more than just rushing yards, Faulk dropped off slowly during the ages of 28 to 30.. by 31, he was all but done, rushing for 774 yards and 3TDs.

Brian Westbrook, like Marshall Faulk, was a dominating receiver, so measuring only rushing stats wouldn’t be accurate… looking at all his stats, though, Westbrook played at a relatively high-level all the way to 29, which is when he started to show slight declines in production… he dropped off the face of the earth at the age of 30, rushing for 274 yards and 1TD.

Thomas Jones kicked off his high-level status in the NFL at the age of 27, then had five-straight 1,000-yard seasons. This may help explain why Jones was able to maintain his elite play into the age of 30 and 31, but Jones dropped off big-time at the age of 32, rushing for 896 and 6TDs and followed that season up with 478/0TDs at the age of 33 (last year).

And we couldn’t end this lesson without addressing the great Emmitt Smith… he and LaDainian Tomlinson have to be two of the best fantasy football players of all-time, and while Emmitt is quite an outlier in terms of number of elite seasons (11), he played at a relatively high-level at 31 (1,203 rushing yards and 9TDs, but he only scored 3TDs at 32, and rushed for 975 yards and 5TDs at 33. Of the long list of elite rushers above, only Emmitt rushed for over 1,000 yards at 32, but again, with 3TDs; Emmitt was done as an elite fantasy football player after 31 and remains one of the few to ever play semi-elite through 31.

So What Does This Mean For 2012?

29 Years Old

Frank Gore will be 29 entering the 2012 NFL Season, and with knee, ankle and foot issues, it’s safe to say we may have seen the last of Gore in terms of elite production.
Steven Jackson will be 29 entering the 2012 NFL Season, and like Frank Gore, Jackson has a long, long list of injury concerns, which means that Jackson is not a good candidate to be one of the few outliers that can do well at 30 or 31.
DeAngelo Williams is 29 as he heads into the 2012 NFL season. It’s highly unlikely that D-Will has a productive 2012 fantasy football campaign, which could be a good thing for all the Jonathan Stewart owners out there. Dynasty leaguers: Keep in mind, Stewart is only 25 years old. Putting that into perspective, Michael Turner didn’t start in the NFL until 26.
30 Years Old

Michael Turner turned 30 in March, which means he is likely done (at least in terms of being elite) entering this 2012 fantasy football campaign. Turner does have one thing going for him, though, as he only has four workhorse seasons under his belt… Turner could follow in the footsteps of Thomas Jones, as Turner started to get starter-carries at 26 (Jones at 27)… still, much of the 30-year-old running back theory and research points to the human body breaking down at 30, it doesn’t always have to do with workload. The lack of miles will certainly give Turner a fighting chance at 30, but I believe that last year’s stats (1340 and 11) will likely drop off to about 900 and 6-7.
31 Years Old

Willis McGahee, who will enter the 2012 NFL season at the age of 30, will turn 31 in October. The odds are against him having a productive 2012 fantasy football season.

history is "usually" a great predictor of the future...

This conversation also lends some credence to the question " Is AP one of the best RBs of All-Time?"  Meaning, will he be one of those rare guys that can produce well into his 30s.  I say yes he can, Emmitt was known for his workouts, along with Barry Sanders (who we'll never know if he would've made it into his 30s because he preferred to walk normally for the rest of his life rather than chase statistics.
Those guys are probably the two hardest offseason RB workers I can recall, and AP is the only one that I know of today that comes close.  AP basically took a recent offseason to greatly improve his leg strength (ACL year) and look what it did for him.  Yes he did seem to wear down this year, but personally I think that was dues to the previous year's 2,00 yds coming right after he crushed his body the entire offseason to get healthy and prove everyone wrong.
AP has expressed his desire to break Emmitt's record, and what Barry and Emmitt both did was take a few weeks down immediately after the season was over, and then get to the gym/hill running/tire pulling, lifting that made the rock solid.  If anything, I bet AP has asked around how and what exactly Emmitt did to keep his longevity, and will duplicate that.

I'd still buy AP in a dynasty league, and definately in redraft for the next 3+ years.  He is the one RB today that I would say that about at 29+, no one else IMO

He isnt Human never doubt AP elite 3 years and good as along as he wants it!

as much as this pains me to say! AP will own the TITLE if no other injury occurs!It was great while it lasted Emmit!