Below is a 2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Redraft) that took place on our new live chat feature on DraftCalc.com. If you haven’t already, check this sleek and new feature out; you can see it right now if you just glance down at the bottom right corner of the site… message other DraftCalc members and talk in real-time about everything fantasy football! Well, last night, I messaged a group of DraftCalc members that were online around 2am… we decided to bust-out a quick mock draft right then and there, and we did so in less than 25 minutes.
We based the mock draft off of a redraft and PPR format, and there were no rules as to how many times any one person could toss out a pick, we just asked that no one picked twice in a row.
Here are the results to this early 2013 fantasy football mock draft; I have provided my commentary at the end of each round. Enjoy!
2013 Mock Draft
Round One
1.01 – Adrian Peterson (Smitty)
1.02 – Doug Martin (JRMRRT)
1.03 – Ray Rice (Mack)
1.04 – Jamaal Charles (TBCF)
1.05 – CJ Spiller (JRMRRT)
1.06 – Arian Foster (Smitty)
1.07 – Trent Richardson (JRMRRT)
1.08 – Calvin Johnson (TBCF)
1.09 – AJ Green (Smitty)
1.10 – Lesean McCoy (JRMRRT)
1.11 – Aaron Rodgers (Mack)
1.12 – Marshawn Lynch (TBCF)
Smitty’s Take: It is nice to see CJ Spiller falling to the 1.05 for a change. We are super-high on Spiller here at DraftCalc, and usually when we mock draft with DraftCalc users, Spiller ends up going around 1.02 or 1.03. At 1.05, there is a lot less risk, and because he has 1.01-1.03 upside, 1.05 could still be a bargain when all is said and done in 2013. Spiller was [level-all]on my Upside Board last year, so you can bet he will be on it this year when I release the first 2013 update! Jamaal Charles at 1.04 is a good pick, and if you can get him later, that’s even better! But, don’t think for a second that he can’t earn a 1.04 investment, because he can. This is one of the first years in quite some time that I actually want a 1.04-1.06 pick. Usually I’m always hoping I land the 1.01, but not this year. Because both Spiller and Charles usually fall in that range, I’m loving those draft slots! Trent Richardson is a player I usually take by 1.06, but I mixed things up in this mock and grabbed Arian Foster (at 1.06). Honestly, eight times out of 10 you will find me grabbing T-Rich by the 1.05, and I think he can be a top 1-2RB this year! AJ Green might just score 15-18TDs this season, so I’m liking his 1.09-1.11 value so far this off-season. That said, I d have noticed that it is extremely tough to build a balanced 2013 fantasy backfield when you grab a receiver in the first, but every draft is different, and sometimes runners fall in strange ways.
Round Two
2.01 – Julio Jones (JRMRRT)
2.02 – Alfred Morris (Mack)
2.03 – Demarco Murray (JRMRRT)
2.04 – Cam Newton (Smitty)
2.05 – Brandon Marshall (JRMRRT)
2.06 – Dez Bryant (Mack)
2.07 – Darren McFadden (JRMRRT)
2.08 – Rob Gronkowski (TBCF)
2.09 – Demaryius Thomas (jknighton)
2.10 – David Wilson (JRMRRT)
2.11 – Matt Forte (TBCF)
2.12 – Andre Johnson (JRMRRT)
Smitty’s Take: No players really stand out as “reaches” in this round except for maybe David Wilson, but Wilson absolutely has the upside to earn even a late second-round selection. If you can get him in the third, or later, take advantage of that if you can, but this “reach” is JRMRRT making a statement, and I like bold. Nice work! Matt Forte has been falling much further than the 2.11 in almost every mock draft I’ve participated in thus far this off-season, so try to get him later in 2013 real drafts, but I’m right there with DraftCalc user TBCF in thinking Forte can even earn a late second-round draft selection in 2013! If you do get him in the third, though, which is where I recommend everyone target him, and he returns to top 5RB form, well, that’s how you win a league.
Round Three
3.01 – Jimmy Graham (jknighton)
3.02 – Victor Cruz (Smitty)
3.03 – Chris Johnson (JRMRRT)
3.04 – Larry Fitzgerald (TBCF)
3.05 – Stevan Ridley (Mack)
3.06 – Percy Harvin (JRMRRT)
3.07 – Randall Cobb (jknighton)
3.08 – Lamar Miller (JRMRRT)
3.09 – Drew Brees (TBCF)
3.10 – Michael Crabtree (JRMRRT)
3.11 – Tom Brady (Smitty)
3.12 – Roddy White (jknighton)
Smitty’s Take: Larry Fitzgerald may seem, at this moment, like a bust candidate at 3.04, but some changes in AZ this coming off-season could make this steal-like. I’m buying low on Fitz in most dynasty leagues I’m in. I realize this is a redraft mock, but that should tell you how much I like Fitz even this year. I think he has a couple elite years left, and I’m predicting a new AZ coaching staff will put Fitz in a situation to look like the Fitz of old. I was quite shocked to see Drew Brees (3.09) and Tom Brady (3.11) fall so far in a redraft mock draft. If you can land either this late in any of your upcoming 2013 yearly league drafts, take full advantage. Lamar Miller feels like a “reach” at 3.08, but again, JRMRRT is clearly making a statement about Miller’s potential breakout campaign here in 2013 – Everyone better listen!
Round Four
4.01 – Monte Ball (Smitty)
4.02 – Vincent Jackson (TBCF)
4.03 – Hakim Nicks (JRMRRT)
4.04 – Andrew Luck (jknighton)
4.05 – Robert Griffin III (JRMRRT)
4.06 – Eddie Lacy (Mack)
4.07 – Maurice Jones-Drew (jknighton)
4.08 – Peyton Manning (Smitty)
4.09 – Mike Wallace (JRMRRT)
4.10 – Wes Welker (jknighton)
4.11 – Kenny Britt (JRMRRT)
4.12 – Frank Gore (TBCF)
Smitty’s Take: I grabbed Monte Ball at 4.01, clearly anticipating him landing in a good situation come April’s 2013 NFL Draft. If Ball doesn’t land in a good situation, clearly I will knock him down quite a bit on both my 2013 Rankings and mocks like this. Ball, who had 39 total rushing/receiving touchdowns in 2011, and 22 last season, the sky is the limit for this rookie if he is drafted to start in the NFL! I like the statements made in the Robert Griffin III (4.05) and Kenny Britt (4.11) selections, as I think both players are going to bounce-back huge in 2013. RG3 could be slow getting going, but he is a great buy-low in all dynasty formats. Again, I know this is a redraft mock, but I think it’s important to point that out!
Thanks to those who participated in this mock, even those of you who didn’t draft but watched it unfold!
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Wilson and especially Miller may have been reaches but RBs will thin out very quickly. If you are an owner that will draft a QB and/or a WR in the 1st 3 rounds then you will likely be looking at guys like that for your RB. Wilson and Miller should be on everyone’s radar this year as potential breakout and big upside players…especially in dynasty start-up drafts.
Nice work making statements, JR! That’s how we do it here at DraftCalc!
Been thinking about new stars who are still under-rated and might go to second rounds, and this confirmed a few of my ‘star-sleepers’: Alfred Morris and Dez B, both went in the second but if you project their points from last year they are really worthy of first round selections, therefore I’m hoping to get an edge with player value exactly as it happened here. Interesting to see Lamar go early – I’m hoping for L Miller or M Leshoure to be available in late 3rd round early 4th – Leshoure came on strong in last half of last season but most people did not notice. Project his points out and you could get a top 15 starter for upside, for little cost. The WR bunch has great upside even in 4th rounds, I am hoping to snag a Crabtree or Denario Alexander, again players who came in strong last year and have no reason to not be elite this year, yet are not must-have’s for many casual fantasy players. Love how Gore and Vincent Jackson are available in the 4th also – they always seem to be under-rated even though V.J. was 6th in scoring in my non-ppr league last year! These are all players I have as favorites for my auction league next year.
All good observations, paulg002!
Speaking of which, this chat format would be awesome for an auction draft, where order doesn’t matter. I am dying to mock an auction because I am going to do that next year in my company league and would like to see how it plays out with real people -but fake money
. So if you are up for it, I would definitely do it (on weekend).
Great idea, Paul! Auction… let’s try one soon!!!!
I’ve been in an auction for 5 years – totally different animal. Prep all you want, we always have some idiot that drafts 4 QBs (or something similarly crazy) to throw off all draft boards. My league is a keep up to 3 player with salary bumps from prior year & salary cap auction… It plays out different every year based on who’s kept, at what value they were “stole” the previous year, and the like. Great format for really knowing your stuff IMO
Yeah, auctions are tricky, as someone, like you said, usually screws up the entire thing.
Love these mocks. Great job everyone.
In addition to the bold Wilson and Miller picks, the pick that jumped out at me was Doug Martin at 1.02 and Foster down at 1.06. I know Spiller is hyped on this website a great deal, but is Martin really worth the 1.02 or is that a slight over reach? Granted Martin had a great year, but if I had the 1.02 pick, I would be more prone to take Foster there, just for the consistency over the last three years. Just my personal preference there. Outside of the two monster games Martin had last year, can he put up a year of steady production that justifies a 1.02 pick?
I think you make great points, whansen1202. I think that’s a bit high myself, I take guys high all the time in mocks to make statements, and honestly, he could earn that value.. he could. So, while I agree it’s a touch high for me, I like bold and I love when people follow their gut. For me, he is safe around 1.05-1.06… since he is usually gone by then, I never get to draft him, but that’s by design, as I set a value for him that makes sense to me. I like how you’re looking at things, regardless of where you view a specific guy.. you set a range for him, and grab him if he falls, let someone else grab him if he goes before that range. That’s how you draft and get value with each pick. Keep up the good comments!
Just found this site on google and am not sure how i didnt know about it sooner.
Welcome goose! This is definitely the one and only place you want to get your fantasy info from. Smitty is the man and is the one guy that will give you the bold predictions no one else will. The forums are also the best anywhere! Glad to have you!
Yep, glad to have ya!
Also, wanted to ask…thoughts on Marshawn Lynch and the potential suspension for his DUI case, does that affect his value even more this year?
And any growing concern over Gronk and the health of his arm? Saw he had a third surgey.
Great topics, whansen1202! Everyone is kind of in the dark right now with Lynch’s possible disciplinary action. Honestly, I am not as high on Lynch as most. He is a great second-round pick, I’m not arguing that, he is no bust candidate or anything, but he seems to keep getting grabbed well ahead of where I’m ever comfortable snagging him, so I never end up owning Lynch for some reason, even in mocks. It’s tough to guess how the league is going to handle this, so some caution is advised, but it’s probably smart not to overreact as well. Like I said, I think I value him lower than most so I’m never faced with picking him.
As for Gronk, it’s a concern, sure, but same thing here… Gronk and Jimmy Graham go so high in most drafts and mocks I’m apart of, I never end up owning either. Gronk’s ADP is 2.06 right now; that’s just way too high for me. I’m not saying he can’t earn that value, but I never take a TE even close to the 2nd-round, but that’s just my style. I’m not saying I will land the “next” Gronk year after year, but that’s always my plan and approach… rather than draft a TE that high, I like to find the next stud late (like we did the year Graham broke out, we predicted his rise). Sure, elite TEs don’t emerge every year, and sometimes we have missed on some, like Finley, etc, but Jared Cook, Pitta, all those guys have great value this upcoming year, and bounce-back seasons are in store for Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis, so there is a lot of value late for TEs this upcoming season. To conclude, I’m not worried too much, but I never (well, almost never) would have taken Gronko in the 2nd, and would pass on any TE even in the early third.
Smitty, I share your thoughts about Lynch, particularly for PPR formats. Lynch is definitely a lock for the rushing yards and TDs at this point, but doesn’t bring a lot to the table in terms of catching.
In general, if we’re talking about PPR format, would you be fine with say, a Brandon Marshall going in the last first instead of Lynch? Marshall had over 120 receptions last year, and Cutler is going to continue looking his way. If that’s not a “bankable” production situation, particularly well suited for the PPR format, I don’t know what is.
I have Marshall right in that second-round, but he misses the cut in terms of my top 12. He is close, not saying he isn’t, and if you notice, I had Marshall on the Upside Board last year, so of course I’m a fan… But these are my top 10-14 ish:
Adrian Peterson
CJ Spiller
Trent Richardson
Ray Rice
Arian Foster
AJ Green
Calvin Johnson
Aaron Rodgers
Jamaal Charles
Doug Martin
Then a mix of: Julio Jones, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Lesean McCoy, etc… then Dez, and then Marshall comes into play for me … redraft wise
I have the following picks
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.10
3.3
3.9
I want calvin first pick, what do you guys think being in my situation?
Have no picks in 4,5,6.
5 Ppr .12 man redraft. 1 ppy. 25 pptd
Nice trading up, I have written on this kind of draft pick trading, nice work.
Calvin is a fine pick at 1.03 in any PPR format… but did you just write 5PPR? I think RBs might fall to the second in most PPR formats, especially if it’s more than 1 point, so the RBs will probably be all there waiting for you in the 2.01-3.3 range, and you can grab 2 or so with another WR.
I was thinking of also waiting til round 7 to get a qb, 3rb 3wr unless a deal on the top 4 falls to me in round 3.
I traded a.p calvin and lynch right before thanksgiving (only allowed 3 per season) . I love this point set up, i feel it eliminates the rounded down yards in standard leagues.
So 2013 my starters may look cj, mjd, cj or forte, welker , and im hoping to land marshall at 13 overall. Or it could look like spiller, and instead of calvin i end up with roddy white equivalent in the 3rd rd. Or could I possibly benefit from trading down? The fall at rb i think starts after top 6 are gone. I feel safer with lamar miller or ballard in the 4-6 (that i dont have) over mcfadden-like risk in the 2nd or 3rd
It’s tough to say with that format where guys are going to go, but target Matt Forte after you grab a WR or two, sure. Calvin is fine in that format, AJ Green and Julio as well. Not a huge fan of Roddy, since you mention him, but he could have another year left being very, very solid, I may be off on that. MJD concerns me, but if he falls to good value, he could go from risky to sleeper, it all depends on where you can get him. Look for some of our deep, deep sleeper RB articles, etc, as if you go WR heavy, which I would in this format, you will need a couple gem RBs like Isaiah Pead, etc, those guys could pay off later and cost you close to nothing.
Thank you for the help! Makes me feel a lot better about grabbing Calvin at 3rd. Still have to assemble plan B in case he goes at 1 or 2!