Each and every season, Smitty unleashes his famous “Bold Predictions” (also known as “The Upside Board”). These are the players that are, in Smitty’s eyes, set to “explode” from their current draft positions and player values. Last year, Smitty dropped these on fantasy worlds:
#1 Russell Wilson, #5 Dez Bryant, #7 CJ Spiller and #10 Brandon Marshall… and, that was just 2012! Smitty predicted breakout fantasy football seasons out of Victor Cruz, Jimmy Graham and Cam Newton in 2011, Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy in 2010, Ray Rice in 2009 and Michael Turner in 2008. The list truly goes on and on, and if you want proof, read all this for yourself here.
View 2013 Bold Predictions Now!
Bold Prediction Testimonials
Hey Smitty, can you rate my team? Its a re-draft 10 team PPR league.
1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, K, DEF
QB: Tom Brady
WR: Marshall, Fitzgerald, Lance Moore, Sidney Rice, Alshon Jeffrey, Percy Harvin (Stashing him for later)
RB: Shady McCoy, Forte, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Joique Bell
TE: Brandon Myers
K: Bailey
DEF: Cincinnati
Any suggestions? Thanks
Very solid, although you really need Bryce Brown. I have written in several places on the site this year that McCoy is a potential bust candidate this year. “Potential” is the key word here, and nor am I suggesting he isn’t a top 5RB each game that he starts. He is a top 5RB, no question… but, he is also one head shot away from being out multiple games, if not worse. His concussion was not a typical one last season, it was a head injury that kept him out multiple games, and there was a lot of talk suggesting his season was over. Now, don’t go selling line-up pieces for Brown if someone else snagged him in your draft, but do what you can to get him. Maybe Harvin? I don’t see much else that would force his owner to give him up. Brown was a beast this preseason and I’m very confident he would do well if McCoy was hurt. Together, there isn’t a worry, so know that, but without Brown I’d be concerned. If need be, list the players the “Brown owner” has, maybe there is a sneaky lateral move you can make using DeMarco Murray that you can request Brown to be added into? Going after Brown all by himself sometimes backfires and the owner is willing to either keep the player or rob you, so the lateral approach might work best (like Montee Ball/Brown would be an example, if let’s say the Brown owner had Ball).
Past that, I love the roster. Marshall is just about in that top tier of Calvin, AJG, Julio and Dez, and Fitz has upside to be near as good as Marshall, we shall see how AZ does getting him the football. Forte is an excellent RB2, and arguable RB1, and I love Lacy at the value you have him at. He can get hurt, sure, I still worry about Lacy for the long term, but I’m starting to define long-term, when it comes to Lacy, as 1-2 years down the road. I’m liking Lacy more and more in redraft, and he is a super flex.
Hey Smitty, so keepers were show to everybody today as the draft is 2 days away. 1st overall im going to take Trent over Martin. For the 2nd round if Green and Julio both gone I could go B Marshall, D Thomas, J Graham, Rodgers, best rbs on the board prob Chris Johnson, and MJD. Dez is my keeper in 4th and 3rd round was targeting Miller . David Wilson is now a keeper of course in the 8th round so he is off the board . If Miller is gone in the 3rd I m looking at either Cam, Amendola, maybe Andre Johnson, Cobb is a keeper, and than 4th is Dez It is .5 ppr league and all tds worth 6. If I pass on Cam in 3rd I would wait till 5-6 to grab one of the 6-12 ranked guys using your list. Can you please help me in RD 2 and 3 , esp if Green and Julio gone. What would you do ?? Wanted to ask what NFL games you thought would be blowouts week 1. I think Tampa beats up Jets and New England destroys Bills. Any others?
All 3 guys ball , bernard, and lacy id imagine there in 3rd as well maybe 5th. Most people in our league would go after Lacy 1st just because I know them. I just dont want to go 2 early on them but yes they will be there in 3rd round
I try to land Ball in the 5th for sure, or Gio (might not last), and if AJ Green and Julio are gone in the 2nd, I like Demaryius Thomas first, then Brandon Marshall. I know that might be against the grain, but Marshall concerns me a touch with his hip. Not enough to avoid him after Thomas, though, but enough to bump Thomas up one. Lamar Miller in the 3rd is ideal, and if gone, Andre Johnson would be a nice grab given you don’t have to keep all these guys, and Andre might have one more top 10WR season left.
I wouldn’t be scared to go Richardson, Julio, Thomas, Dez, or Richardson, Thomas, Andre, Dez if that’s your next question, because someone like Ball will be available in the 5th, maybe Vereen or Gio, and it’s not so crazy to go high-risk at that RB2 if you are stacking your WRs as such. Not a big fan of Jimmy Graham early, but it’s not a wrong move, just not my type of move, as I’m looking for Cook, Thomas and a few others to have big underrated years, so I like the value in grabbing other positions early vs. a TE early.
One last thing (if Julio/AJ Green are gone that is, that is priority 1!), you might want to ask yourself, given the keepers (this 2nd round being almost like a 3rd), maybe you should go Lamar Miller in the 2nd.. I think you mentioned this before, and I tend to agree now.
Reason being, is there a huge difference between Andre Johnson and Demaryius Thomas? So, if you get Miller in the 2nd and Andre in the 3rd, I like the team a lot.
Richardson, Miller, Andre, Dez, Ball.. solid. I like that second to only:
Richardson, Julio, Miller (or Demaryius), Dez, Ball
That’s about as many ways as I can tackle this situation, as it could go in 10 different directions, my friend!
Smitty, draft on Monday night. I need a few kickers and DF (team) to pick from?
Let me see if I can put a kicker/dst list together and I’ll link it to the rankings pages. For now, AZ, CAR are nice sleeper DSTs.
Nice write up, Smitty. One question, how does one of those breakout players like Victor Cruz get on the upsideboard in the middle of the season before they break out? Becuse once they broke out like Cruz did, it would be too late to pick him up unless you have #1 waiver priority.
I’m pretty weak at WR positions. I’m in a 14 team league with .5 ppr starting 3 WRs. I have AJ Green, Hopkins, Jeffery, Gordon. I tried to trade Vereen for Hilton, but didn’t work out. Looking forward to hearing your opinion.
I’m not sure I understand the question. The Upside Board locks into place once the season starts, and it NEVER changes again. This way it can be reflected upon. So, in your Victor Cruz example, I called him the next breakout WR (He was No. 10 that season I had him on the Upside Board), and thus I told everyone before Week 1 to get him. He still went undrafted in so many leagues it wasn’t even funny. No one is added to the Upside Board, or taken off, or edited, once Week 1 kicks off. That’s the point of it, as it’s a matter of record.
I see. I thought if a hidden gem is discovered during the season and is worthy to be top 10 in the upside baord list, he would replace someone in the list. I clearly remember Cruz. He wasn’t even listed in so called expert cheet sheets. I remember he was the difference maker In winning the championship that year. Thanks for clarification.
This year, I have Miller and Wilson on my team and was mocked that I won’t make the playoffs with those two running backs. Eager to see how it will pan out.
No prob on the Upside Board clarification. Once it locks in, I’ll clearly highlight that aspect (that it locks into place). If anything, thanks for emphasizing that there could any clarification lacking on the page to suggest that. Much appreciated.
As for Wilson/Miller… While anything can happen, I love those two RBs this year. Who are your WRs? DraftCalc’s way of thinking, which is my way of thinking, is usually mocked by a big group of people, until the bold turn into “oh, yeah, well everyone saw that coming!” It’s quite amazing how the doubters vanish and no one recalls their doubt of some of the players we call out. Like Montee Ball, and Lamar Miller. Notice how high people are on David Wilson now? All off the sudden you can’t find doubt-driven comments regarding Wilson.
Well, as far as my WRs go, I have AJG, Hopkins, Jeffery, and Gordon. I waited a little too long to get Hilton. But I was able to get RGIII, Ball, Vereen, Pierce, and Cook. We start 3 WRs. Hopefully, I can get another top WR via a trade once one of my bench RBs breaks out.
So,
RG3
Wilson / Miller / Ball / Vereen / Pierce
AJGreen / Gordon / Hopkins (Jeffery)
Cook
Wow, that’s quite a squad, my friend. A fantastic squad, actually. And not that you’d have to, but you could trade one of Vereen/Ball later for a WR upgrade.
Well I just had my first draft calc drafting experience ever. I got stuck at 11 and went WR-WR because there was no RBs I was in love with and hey if you’re going to read the draft calc stuff you may as well use it!
Our league is odd scoring because of return yards. They are 1 point for every 25 return yards but that makes sproles an elite weapon. Unfortunately I think the guy picking at 9 was reading Smitty’s boards as well…
In a 12 team, .5 ppr, 2rb/3WR that is VERY competitive I went
1.11 AJ Green
2.2 Julio
3.11 Sproles – Miller went at 3.9, sproles has been top 10 in our league the last two years. Thanks to special teams I stole an RB1.
4.2 Frank Gore – Cuffed with Hunter
5.11 Ty
6.2 Romo
7.11 Gordon
8.2 Bernard Pierce
9.11 Kendall Hunter
10.2 Le’Veon Bell
11.11 Sudfeld
12.2 Julius
13.11 Knowshon
I’m happy about it. I landed 4 WRs that have high cielings and even though I didn’t get Miller, Sproles was a steal in our format, which is the idea of WR-WR and taking advantage of under valued studs at RB. Return yards change everything and I pounced with miller and wilson gone.
I had Cook, Miller, Britt, and Michael all nabbed just ahead of me, but I think I did a good job of going BPA. I was between gore and lacy and went with the dominant o-line. That was hard to turn down in the moment as I had already gone so BOLD already.
Smitty what do you think? I know my RBs are a little thin but we only start 2 and they are somewhat devalued in our league due to the 3WRs and Sproles is a top 6 guy as is.
If Sproles finishes that high in your league, and he doesn’t in any of mine, you made out like crazy, yeah. Gore is a great RB2, almost a RB1, for one more season? So I think you did well. Nice work. Buy low on Ball and get him in the mix? Buy low, and today’s news, more talk about Hillman, will surely lower his value.
Draft Tom: another 12 team ppr competitive league. I have the 9th pick, but swapped with 6th spot for 1st/2nd round. Plan: (as always adjust to draft and BAP (best available player)) 1.6-T.Rich, 2.7-? (A top 4 WR if available), 3.9 and 4.4 would be crucial picks. Hopefully Lamar Millet falls, but any thoughts on who to target. Also, in this league QB get 6 points per passing TD; otherwise pretty standard ppr scoring with scoring with bonuses. Also, if TRich goes who would be#1? You are a fantasy football savage! Lovin this site!
Thanks, Biggie. If Trich were to go, and Spiller was also gone, that’s when I’d consider the WR/WR approach, but only if you feel comfortable with the risk. The risk is RBs don’t fall that you love, but in my book, one of Wilson/Miller, and then 2-3 of Ball, Vereen, Lacy, Gio, and a few others) are runners I love, I know that. I love those players considering.
Give me this team all day long:
RG3
Lamar Miller
Montee Ball/Lacy/Gio
Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
TY Hilton
Jared Cook
Smitty,
Happy Labor Day!
I’m mulling a trade and would like your input, if you don’t mind.
This is a 12 team PPR league – redraft:
I would be giving up Julio Jones & Darren Sproles for Randall Cobb & Lamar Miller. Would you do it? Your calculator says the trade is even.
For context, here is my complete team (minus DST & kicker):
QB – Sam Bradford
RB – Trent Richardson, David Wilson, Darren Sproles, Montee Ball, Shane Vereen, Giovani Bernard
WR – Julio Jones, Desean Jackson, T.Y. Hilton, Chris Givens, Kenbrell Thompkins
TE – Jared Cook
Thanks in advance for your input; DraftCalc has quickly become my go-to site for fantasy advice – keep up the great work, sir!
I should also add that we play 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, a FLEX (WR/RB) and 1 TE.
Thanks again!
No. I don’t do that. I love Lamar Miller, and he could very well be a next top 5-10 fantasy rusher, but buying low is important, so that if he doesn’t workout, you still at least earn back your investment (meaning trade for him at 3rd-round like value because he will, if healthy, be very likely to produce that kind of value). Then if you land the guy, and he explodes, you have a huge advantage. This trade above seems somewhat close, sure, but keep in mind that my trade calculator does have some “upside” factored into it, so not everyone shares my “upside” approach on some of these players, so my guess is fair market value commands more to go to the Julio owner.
Keep Julio. He is a top 8 overall player to me, and Ball might fill that flex role better than you think. And, between HIlton and Givens, you may have a flex worthy option right there, while the other grabs your WR2 spot. Vereen, Bernard, also very flex worthy.. if anything, wait a few weeks and let those guys (all of those flex worthy players I just mentioned) gain value and use 2 or so as trade bait (maybe with DeSean) and upgrade your WR2, flex or QB in some deal later on. Take that team into week 1.
Will do; thanks for the advice!
No prob!
Feelin good and ready to draft. Appreciate the advice; it’s go time!
Go get ‘em!
Hey smitty how do u feel about this team . 12 team ppr. I kept dez and wilson from last year..our bench is bigger in this leage. Do i have too many upside players and not enough proven stud players…a lot of good rbs and wrs were kept.now my team is
Russle wilson
Chris johnson
Lamar miller
Monte ball
Dez
Ty hilton
Kenny britt
Josh gordon
Shane vereen
Bernard pierce
Jared cook
Julius thomas
Chris givens
Niners D
Smitty,
Do I start for week one J. Cook or Juilus Thomas ?
Do I start for week one Givens Or Hilton?
Thanks for all your help
Givens has a tough match up.. Hilton. Cook!!! Love both, but Cook is ranked higher and has a huge ceiling! Great duo to own, though!
Thoughts on, Patrick Edwards in Det, an Marlon Brown in Bal at Wr. Both seem to have some big upside? In a strong 14 team league, would u rather stash those two or riley cooper.
drafting masters league redraft
cam
miller
wilson
dez
a johnson
torry
im coming up rank bell vereen ivory if avail ?