Sleeper Alert
Darren McFadden, like Andre Johnson, had a very disappointing 2011 fantasy football campaign. This was especially the case given both cost fantasy owners first-round draft selections last year. While it’s easy to avoid players all together coming off injury-plagued seasons, sometimes those players are doubted so much, and by so many, heading into that next season, they go from high-risk/high-reward to medium-risk/high-reward. I just finished a similar write-up on Andre Johnson, and now it’s Darren McFadden’s turn.
So, here are the facts: In 2010, which was McFadden’s breakout fantasy season, he rushed for 1,157 yards, pulled in 47 receptions for 507 yards and had 10 total touchdowns. Last year, yes, McFadden only played in 7 games, but he did rush for 614 yards, pulled in 19 receptions for 154 yards and had 5 total touchdowns. Stretch those stats over 16 games, and you’re looking at 1,403 rushing yards, 43 receptions for 352 yards and 11 total touchdowns. Honestly, I think despite the injury risk, McFadden still warrants top five fantasy consideration. Would I take him that high? Absolutely not, because you don’t need to. The good news? Most fantasy owners are letting McFadden fall way too far in recent fantasy football mock drafts. According to our DraftCalc.com Average Draft Position data, which is compiled using multiple fantasy football industry ADPs, McFadden is looking like a 1.11-2.02 draft selection come August. That’s a steal, and it really limits the risk and expectation. Do I think McFadden could miss a couple games in 2012? Sure, I think that’s probable, but I’m going with 2 missed contests, 1,100 yards rushing, 40 receptions for 300 receiving yards and 8-10 total scores. Don’t sleep on McFadden near the end of the first-round in your upcoming fantasy football drafts (dynasty or redraft).
Well said Smitty. I think DMac is going to give his owners exactly what they have been waiting for this year. I’m projecting 260-1300-11 & 45-350-3. Now, lets go DMac!
I’ll be targeting him in all leagues where I’m near that 1.08-1.12 range.
In a recent start-up dynasty draft, I grabbed him at 1.10 after trading up for the pick and am extremely happy I did. DMac has the talent/potential of being the #1 RB in FF.
Agreed. DMac at his current ADP/trade value has him low-to-medium-risk and high-reward. As I write above, if he misses a couple games, he can still earn his value and be a top 10RB. If he doesn’t miss games, as you state, we’re possibly looking at a top 1-4RB this year. Huge upside. Huge.