I usually do a few of these articles per off-season, where I basically answer six very common questions I get asked.

Keep in mind that a lot can change in the coming weeks and months, especially with the NFL Draft approaching in April.

Let’s get to some burning questions!

1. What running backs are the safest to draft in 2013?

This is a great question, and I get asked it a lot. Running backs can make or break your season, and while the top 12 overall is usually loaded with questionable first-round rushers, this year seems to have a grip of secure-like studs to grab. Sometimes those secure-type backs are scattered throughout the first- and second-rounds of fantasy drafts… that is not so much the case heading into 2013. This upcoming fantasy football season, the most secure rushers are almost all first-round talents, and most all of the runners in the second- and third-rounds appear to have lots of risk. Granted, some have huge upside, though, but still, the risk is much more substantial.

Trent Richardson

While there are some “arguable” injury concerns when it comes to Trent Richardson, there might be no safer “workload” situation than this one entering 2013. The Browns are going to feed Richardson the football in 2013, and I’m talking the kind of carries that will be potentially league-leading… He is young enough not to worry about being overworked, at least for a few years anyway, and honestly, while he was banged up here and there last season, injury does not concern me. Why? Well, he missed only one game in 2012, which was Week 17 (mild ankle injury)… and he reportedly had broken ribs down the stretch during his his rookie campaign… if anything, it’s encouraging hearing that the rising star did all that late-season damage (6TDs over his last five games) with some cracked pipes under the hood. Injury risk? Nope, not in my book. Fantasy worlds heard the same thing about Adrian Peterson coming out of college, so let the doubters doubt and get ready for a big 2013! How big? With Norv Turner now conducting in Cleveland, I envision Richardson rushing for roughly [level-all]1,400+ yards, pulling in 60 passes for 400-500 yards, and scoring 12-15 touchdowns. His ADP is settling in the top 6 overall in all formats – That’s where he belongs and don’t be afraid to invest in T-Rich at that value!

Adrian Peterson

It’s hard to doubt Adrian Peterson – ever. I admit, I had my doubts last year given Peterson was 27 years old heading into his first season coming off ACL surgery. Historically, running backs with ACL tears usually don’t return to form once over the age of 23-24. Well, Peterson did more than just return to form last year, he had one of the best rushing seasons ever. While I will say that “shopping” AP while his value is through the roof isn’t a bad idea, I have little doubt about the guy being a top 1-3 fantasy running back in 2013. His insane workload last year, where he ran the ball 348 times (388 touches), is a bit of a concern — especially when you couple that with the fact that 2013 was his first year back from injury — but, if there is one player that typical rules and concerns do not apply to, it’s Peterson. Don’t expect another 2,000-yard rushing season or anything, but I think a safe “floor” value for Peterson in 2013 is 1,400-1,500 rushing yards, 40 receptions for 250 yards, and 12-14 total scores.

Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch

I’ll be honest, before writing this article, I was starting to think that 2013 might be a better year than usual to explore wide receiver in the first-round; however, given that there are about 9-10 very elite fantasy running backs in entering 2013, I’m starting to think that going running back in the first-round of 2013 might be critical to building a well-balanced team. Now, if you play in multiple leagues, which I strongly recommend, I do advise that you mix up your draft strategies, grab different players in each league, and even roll with a “Receiver in the first-round” approach… mix it up! But, in general, and in the cases where fantasy owners have just one league, I say absolutely grab one of these runners in the first-round (if available over receivers or passers):

adrian peterson
cj spiller
trent richardson
ray rice
arian foster
jamaal charles
doug martin
lesean mccoy (ONLY if handcuffed to bryce brown)
marshawn lynch

That’s a strong looking group of elite and secure fantasy rushers! This year might be the year most fantasy owners hope for a late first-round pick, as any one of those runners listed above could be a top 1-5 running back at any point during the 2013 fantasy football season.

2. What disappointing players from 2012 will rebound in 2013?

Matthew Stafford

How quickly they fall! Heading into last season, many fantasy owners were shoving Matthew Stafford into the same exact tier as Aaron Rodgers. In fact, we often took heat last off-season for keeping him out of Rodgers’ tier. Well, it’s time to invest in the passer, who now has Reggie Bush set to open up that entire offense. Defending this Detroit passing attack is going to be near impossible at times in 2013, and Calvin Johnson is going to be extremely hard to defend with Bush keeping defenses honest. In 2011, Stafford threw for 5,038 yards, 41TDs and 16 INTs… everyone, including us (despite some of our doubt), had Stafford pegged to do far better than his 2012 stats, which were 4,695 passing yards, 17TDs and 16 INTs… With the dynamic addition of Reggie Bush in 2013, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Stafford threw down similar numbers to his 2011 campaign… Maybe count on more like 4,800 passing yards and 36-39 scores, but that will be quite a season for a 6th- to 7th-round fantasy passer!

Steven Jackson

I admit, it’s tough not worrying about Steven Jackson’s mileage. He has nine seasons under his belt, eight of which included over 230 carries… that adds up to 2,385 rushing attempts, and we haven’t even included his 400 receptions… add those in and Jackson has averaged over 300 touches over his nine NFL seasons. Wow. Talk about abused. Here is the deal, though… aside from some less-than-stellar touchdown production over the last handful of years (four-straight years with no more than six rushing touchdowns), Jackson has some burst, and landing in Atlanta is ideal for Jackson given this stage in his career. There is no better spot, as Jackson could rush for 1,000-1,100 yards with ease, and given all the red zone opportunities in Atlanta, opportunitites that even the struggling Michael Turner has been taking advantage of over the last two seasons, I think Jackson could easily total up 10-12 total scores in 2013. If you invest in Jackson this year, handcuff him to Jacquizz Rodgers at almost any cost, though… that runner will produce in Atlanta this season, so owning both is both critical and strong.

Matt Forte

Matt Forte’s ADP is climbing, and I don’t like it… in the months of January and February, he was a staple in the third-round of almost all early mock drafts, but now he is surfacing in the late second-round on occasion. Try getting him in the third-round in all 2013 drafts, though, as that’s where the “steal of the draft” potential comes into play. I still think Forte is relatively low-risk, with all kinds of upside, in that late second-round, but he has so many doubters this year, test your league mates in 2013 and see if he falls. Injury risk? Sure, but that’s why he is no longer costing you the top 5-10RB value that he use to command. He still has that kind of talent!

Larry Fitzgerald

It’s easy to overlook Larry Fitzgerald heading into 2013, and there is even more reason to doubt him. That said, when you look at the asking price in upcoming 2013 fantasy football drafts, which is in the 4.01-4.10 range, I scratch my head with a smile. Is there risk that Fitz will face more quarterback struggles in 2013? Sure, and that’s why he no longer costs you second-round value, or even third-round value for that matter… Once a doubted player falls far enough, he turns into a steal. This is that situation, and even if Fitz struggles to see consistent targets in 2013, he can earn 4th-round value. New coach Bruce Arians will use Fitzgerald all over the field, which will include running him in the slot. He did this with Reggie Wayne last year, and Wayne cranked out 106 receptions for 1,355 yards, this was coming off a 75-catch season in 2011. Arians knows how to get the most out of his receivers, so I say grab Fitz any chance you get anywhere in the 4th-round (or later)!

Kenny Britt

For more on Kenny Britt, checkout his Upside Board write-up. Just know that his ADP is floating around the 7th- to 9th-round range, and lately it seems it’s in that 8th- to 9th-round area. This is just crazy-solid value. Again, read the write-up, but in a nutshell, there is just no risk this late, and like Britt or not, and worry about his off-the-field issues or not, he has the talent to be a fantasy WR1. Anytime you can say that about a player that you can scoop up in the 75-90 overall range, it’s time to invest!

DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew

All three of DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew dance around third-round ADP. Murray sometimes sees the second-round, though, so know that his ADP is a bit more all over the map. Still, any of these three rushers have top 5-10 running back upside, and that makes them potential steals as a third-drafted player. Invest at that value in 2013!

3. Who are the top handcuffs to own in 2013?

LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown

LeSean McCoy suffered a brutal concussion in Week 11 of the 2012 NFL season; McCoy missed four games due to the head injury, and his recovery was extremely slow-moving. He experienced headaches, dizziness, fatigue, sensitivity to both light and noise, and from those Weeks 12-15, many reports surfaced suggesting that McCoy was going to be shutdown for the season. While he did play in Weeks 16 and 17, where he totaled over 100 yards in both games, we have Jahvid Best-like concerns when it comes to McCoy. Concussions are one thing, but “severe” concussions, ones that knock players out as long as McCoy’s did, are entirely different. Studies have shown that one is more susceptible to concussions after already suffering a concussion. And, each successive concussion can occur with even less head trauma than before. Is McCoy a top five fantasy rusher when healthy? Absolutely, but the key to owning McCoy in 2013 is to own his handcuff: Bryce Brown. Brown, despite his inconstancy and fumbles in late 2012, proved that he can be a low-end RB1 if the carries are present. Owning just McCoy in 2013 is way too risky if you ask me, and I can name over 10-12 rushers I’d rather have over owning just McCoy heading into 2013 and beyond. However, if paired with Brown, the McCoy/Brown duo instantly becomes as worthy as any running back in fantasy. Yep, Brown is that critical to this situation, which makes Brown the most valuable handcuff in all of 2013. It’s tough to say where to draft Brown heading into 2013 fantasy drafts… once ADP data settles a bit, we will know where he is going, then everyone will need to expect to have to reach at least one to ensure they get the must-have handcuff.

Shane Vereen

Shane Vereen has flex appeal heading into 2013, he isn’t just a handcuff material. However, if you do own Stevan Ridley, I recommend you draft (trade for) Vereen. I think Vereen has top 5-10 fantasy upside if forced into that Patriots’ starting line-up. For more on that, read our Upside Board write-up on Vereen.

4. We love the “upside board”! How about a “downside board”?

As you likely know, we have 10 Bold Predictions up all off-season long. These predictions are known as our Upside Board and the 10 players listed have the most upside given their current ADPs/trade values. Who are my Top 10 “Downside” players heading into 2013? Here is a quick list. Note, if their ADPs change, they could quickly fall off this list and turn into solid-like values:

1. LeSean McCoy – As said above, again, he could ruin your fantasy season with one hit. Handcuff him to Bryce Brown, though, and you may instantly have a secure top 2-7 fantasy back, so this is an avoidable “bust” situation. Without the handcuff, the bust potential is off the charts.
2. Frank Gore – He will be 30 entering the start of the season, and history suggests 30-age seasons are the start of major decline for elite rushers. Could I be a year early given Gore is coming off a 1,144-yard season in 2012? Maybe, but I’d rather be a year early with such a prediction, and still have a chance to grab another fantasy talent, than be a year late.
3. Ryan Mathews – Is the kid talented? Sure, but why does he have a 4th- to 5th-round ADP right now? Avoid at this value!
4. Michael Crabtree – I know I may get a lot of questions on this one, and honestly, I don’t have much to go on here but some gut instinct. I like Crabtree, I’m not suggesting he won’t be solid in 2013… that said, his ADP is quickly climbing too high for my taste, as it’s now in the 3.10-4.02 range. Can he earn that value? Sure, but I also think his absence from fantasy relevance should spark some concern in those willing to make the receiver their third-drafted player. He has less upside, and more risk, the higher you take him, and 3rd- to 4th-round value is just too risky for a player that: 1) has pulled in just one 1,000-yard season, and 2) will vanish as quickly as he appeared if his running quarterback gets injured.
5. Pierre Garcon – Someone has to catch passes in Washington, I realize that, but Garcon is a walking injury waiting to happen. He has a 4th- to 5th-round ADP – That’s way too risky. I won’t touch him near that 4th- to 5th-round range, which likely means I won’t own him this year. I’m fine with that.
6. Greg Jennings – How good will he be away from Aaron Rodgers and at the center of a mediocre, at best, passing attack? I don’t like this situation MIN, and unless I can grab Jennings as my undervalued WR3 in 2013, I am taking a pass!
7. Mike Wallace – How did Miami treat Brandon Marshall fantasy owners? This is a horrible landing spot for the speedy receiver, who will likely see huge dips in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. Wallace only shakes the “downside” tag if he starts falling into fantasy WR3 territory.
8. Roddy White – While he was still quite productive in 2012, his receptions dropped to 87, down from his two previous 100+ catch seasons; he will turn 32 this year and Julio Jones is ready to explode. Don’t avoid White this August if he sits at a reasonable ADP, but currently his ADP is in the third-round, and that smells like disappointment to me.
9. Demaryius Thomas – It’s not that he can’t have a good year, but with Wes Welker in town, I’m afraid the receiver will disappoint those still spending second-round draft selections on him. Even as a third-drafted player, I’m not seeing upside. I know many Thomas owners out there won’t like to hear that, but certainly don’t sell him low if you already own him, as he is a Welker injury away from being back to elite fantasy WR1 type numbers.
10. Stevan Ridley – His ADP is in the 2nd, yet his back-up is the more gifted player. This is a recipe for “Rags-to-Riches” if you ask me. Own Shane Vereen at all costs if you end up, or plan on, owning Ridley in 2013. For more on Vereen, read here.

5. Life after Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski, which TE to look for.

Jared Cook

For more on this, absolutely check out the Upside Board. In a nutshell, this kid could be the next Jimmy Graham or Rob Grownkowski now that he is playing in St. Louis. He has a legit passer, something he didn’t have in Tennessee. A 1,000-yard season with 7+ scores is doable for this beast-of-a-tight-end! I love Cook this year!!!

Kyle Rudolph

I’m not a fan of his situation, but Kyle Rudolph has elite talent. He proved this during the 2012 Pro Bowl, where he finished with five catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. This situation reminds me halfway of Brandon Marshall’s heading into 2012. Marshall had 3TDs during the 2011 Pro Bowl, just before he went to Chicago. He proved what he could do with a legitimate passer. If only Rudolph’s story could end like Marshall’s and he could consistently connect with an Aaron Rodgers, or even a Jay Cutler like Marshall… if he could, he would be Rob Gronkowski. Unfortunately, though, the Vikings’ tight end is just Kyle Rudolph, but that’s still top 2-4 fantasy material heading into 2013!

Dennis Pitta, Martellus Bennett, Brandon Myers, Tyler Eifert

Any of these guys could turn into an elite fantasy tight end, so keep them on your sleeper lists heading into August!

6. In 2013, which players would you reach for, and which players would you wait on drafting?

David Wilson – Reach

For reasons you can find here, I think David Wilson is one of the best players to reach for in 2013, as his ADP is near the tail-end of the third-round, yet he could be a top 5-10 fantasy running back. Even if you reach for him at the top of the third-round, you’re getting a player that can crush even that draft slot! Draft him as late as you think you can, that’s always recommended, but this kid is worth a little reach just to ensure you get him. It’s like grabbing a stock after it’s gone up already… who cares about that increase you just missed out on (you taking him higher than his ADP), as that increase could be a blip on the radar compared to where his value is headed. Wilson’s fantasy ceiling is so much higher than his third-round ADP!

Colin Kaepernick – Wait

This won’t be a popular stance, as I know so many of you like Colin Kaepernick. I like him as well, but with an ADP now around the 5th-round, I would much rather wait on him and let someone else snag him if they so happen to snag him early. With Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and even Matthew Stafford still on the board where Kaepernick is now getting taken, I say wait until he falls at least into the 6th-round. If he goes before then, he goes… other very similar passers will be available in the 6th- and 7th-rounds, and some more secure ones are worth 3rd- and 4th-round picks over Kaep in the 5th-round, like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Again, I like Kaep, but we’ve seen too many QBs emerge and vanish, or at least emerge then have a second-year (starting) slump… Brees probably won’t fall to the third-round much in 2013 drafts, but it appears that both Brady and Manning will, and again, I would rather take a Brady or Manning in the 3rd- or 4th-round than Kaep in the 5th. Sorry.

Forum Discussion

There were several other questions thrown my way from our diehard forum community, and since I couldn’t get to all of them, I have created a discussion right here with all of those unanswered questions – Swing by that discussion and drop your two cents!

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