Jamaal Charles

I feel like Jamaal Charles may be a bust this year. I expect about the same amount of carries that most seem to be projecting for him. I've seen many experts projecting him to have 6+ ypc. I found an article listing YPC for running backs in the season (or year before in some cases) the ACL injury occurred and the year following the injury. The YPC following injury on average was 88% of the preinjury YPC. Couple that with his career 6.1 YPC and you get a back with 5.4 YPC. In the projections I am using (I don't do my own I have learned enough to know as a whole I suck at projections), that alone would drop him from RB11 to RB15. Am I out of line or is it rediculous to expect anything beyond 5.5 YPC from Jamaal Charles this year? Personally, I think it is a stretch to expect beyond 5 YPC for a guy coming off an ACL injury even if he did run for 6.3 his last fully healthy season. I am also down on AP for redraft for all of the same reasons, but I expect both to come back at full force in 2013.

I am very curious what you all think.

5 might even be a reach....I think he takes a back seat to Hillis ...or at least a shared seat

I think back seat early in the year, and probably something like 60-40 or 55-45 in Charles's favor later in the year. I have no interest in winning my toilet bowl for a 3rd straight year after slow starts.

According to the Kansas City Star, the Chiefs ideally want Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis to touch the ball 500 times this season.
It confirms that the Chiefs plan on rolling with a run-heavy attack under defensive-minded head coach Romeo Crennel and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. As long as Charles bounces back well from his ACL tear, 240 carries and 30 catches is the floor. There's still room for Hillis to chip in with another 9-11 touches per game. The health of Charles' knee will be one of training camp's major storylines

^9-11 touches for Hillis? Jones and Charles essentially split touches in 2010. I would expect a similar distribution this season for Charles and Hillis, with an edge to Hillis because of Charles' injury. Hillis can be a weapon in the passing game as well. If I were writing this rotoworld blurb, my analysis would be BUY HILLIS!

TBL

I haven't seen many projections of touches that I have much of a problem with. If his knee is 100% I could see another 230 carry 40 catch season like 2010, and I won't argue against that possibility. My main concern is how low will the YPC go. I would say even absent the torn ACL it wouldn't be a huge surprise if his YPC fell below 5.5 just because of general variability/reversion to the mean. Throw in the ACL I think 5.0 or lower is not unreasonable. When some projections are 6+ I can't agree with that as an expectation that is more of a ceiling estimate.

I own Charles in a few leagues, and when I hear he may get close to 240 carries, I drool. That's an awful lot of touches for a guy off injury. What does that tell me? He's full recovered. Getting banged up early last season was actually a a good thing for owners of him this year. RB1 numbers in the later rounds. Don't sleep on Hillis too, a better version of Thomas as he can catch, but KC knows who the franchise guy is.

Tumo said:

TBL

I haven't seen many projections of touches that I have much of a problem with. If his knee is 100% I could see another 230 carry 40 catch season like 2010, and I won't argue against that possibility. My main concern is how low will the YPC go. I would say even absent the torn ACL it wouldn't be a huge surprise if his YPC fell below 5.5 just because of general variability/reversion to the mean. Throw in the ACL I think 5.0 or lower is not unreasonable. When some projections are 6+ I can't agree with that as an expectation that is more of a ceiling estimate.

Excellent post. The touches isn't the issue for Charles, it's the YPC. If he drops to 4.0-4.5 on his 200 carries a year and considering the unlikelihood of a small running back coming off an ACL getting goal line touches, his value falls way under his ADP.

Bust? Maybe he starts out slow as expected this year but I like his future in Dynasty formats as he matures into a great rb. He's got a lot going for him with his age, body of work and the team he plays on. I can't wait!!

The Defense is going to keep things close and it will be a RBBC with Hillis getting the goal line carries. I see about 1000 yds with 4 TD maybe 1 to 2 in the air.

He'll have 40 - 50 catches too which will increase his value.

cheche said:

Bust? Maybe he starts out slow as expected this year but I like his future in Dynasty formats as he matures into a great rb. He's got a lot going for him with his age, body of work and the team he plays on. I can't wait!!

I like him for 2013 and beyond. I just think some might be getting ahead of themselves this year especially if projecting 6+ ypc for a guy coming off an ACL injury. Personally, I think projecting 6 YPC is a bit extreme for a healthy back who has done so for one full season. I'll admit that even with my most conservative projections he won't be outside of the top 20 RBs. It would take another injury to do that.

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