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  • branch0095 January 22
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  • Smitty January 23
  • Swampies January 22
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  • whansen1202 January 22
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Looking at last year's BUSTS/Letdowns coming out of Rounds 1-3 last August. Wow.
  • SmittySmitty
    Posts: 6,733
    Using an average of multiple ADPs, here was last August's ADP average for the top 36 (first three rounds). What value Peyton Manning had... but the busts/letdowns/injuries were insane.

    Busts are Bold.

    1.00 Adrian Peterson
    2.00 Doug Martin
    4.33 Arian Foster
    4.67 Jamaal Charles
    5.33 C.J. Spiller
    5.67 Calvin Johnson
    8.00 Ray Rice
    8.00 Trent Richardson
    8.67 Marshawn Lynch
    11.00 LeSean McCoy
    12.33 A.J. Green
    13.67 Alfred Morris
    14.00 Dez Bryant
    15.00 Aaron Rodgers
    17.33 Matt Forte
    18.00 Julio Jones
    18.00 Brandon Marshall
    19.33 Chris Johnson
    19.67 Demaryius Thomas
    19.67 Jimmy Graham
    20.00 Drew Brees
    20.00 Steven Jackson
    22.67 Maurice Jones-Drew
    26.33 Stevan Ridley
    26.67 Larry Fitzgerald
    30.33 Roddy White
    30.67 Randall Cobb
    31.00 Cam Newton
    31.33 DeMarco Murray
    32.00 Peyton Manning
    32.00 Andre Johnson
    32.33 David Wilson
    32.67 Darren McFadden
    33.33 Rob Gronkowski
    34.67 Lamar Miller
    35.00 Reggie Bush
    36.33 Victor Cruz
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder | DraftCalc.com
  • winonemorewinonemore January 22
    Posts: 960
    Yeah, the first round was especially brutal last year.  So many land mines.  
    12 Team Dynasty
    QB: Newton, Bradford (IR)
    RB: L. Bell, R. Bush, Vereen, L. Miller, J. Bell, Michael, Helu, Starks
    WR: Julio, Dez, Marshall, Mi. Floyd, Randle, Thompkins, A. Holmes, Streater, Alexander (IR)
    TE: Gronk, Graham, Reed
    No picks in first 3 rounds
  • tmoneytmoney January 22
    Posts: 2,992
    16/36 and 5 of the top 12.  Ouch
  • Whos_Ur_Doggie January 22
    Posts: 12,367
    On a bright note, Julio was the #1 scoring WR in many of my leagues until he went down to injury.   ;)
    DC Nation Moderator
  • BuckysGT January 22
    Posts: 7,614
    ^^^ I guess that could be a positive. Let's hope this year isn't like last.
  • Swampies January 22
    Posts: 2,621
    Gronk should be added to that bold list with only making 5 weeks worth owning him and missing the 9 sure wouldn't make me happy if I owned him.
    My league is a non PPR 12 person league having a roster of 19 players each. Active roster includes 1Qb 2Rb's 3Wr's 1Te 1K 1Def. Two weeks before draft we cut the roster down to 9 keepers. My team as of now:
    QB Russell Wilson, EJ Manuel, Josh Mckown
    RB Lamar Miller, Shane Vereen, Zac Stacy, Cierre Wood
    WR AJ Green, Julio Jones, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson, Rueben Randle, Kenny Stills
    TE J Reed, M. Bennett, Delanie Walker
    DEF Kansas City, Cleveland
    K Steven Hauschka

    (I'm not a expert but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!)
  • whansen1202whansen1202 January 22
    Posts: 45
    Smitty, could we do a super early 2014 redraft mock at some point soon?  Would be interested to see how the first few rounds for next year would look compared to this.
  • SmittySmitty January 22
    Posts: 6,733
    We just did one in a draft master, but it was redraft. I should have both a write up for redraft (probably on that draft as an example) and one on a dynasty mock on FEB 1. So 9 days.
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder | DraftCalc.com
  • branch0095 January 22
    Posts: 4,163
    Busts are busts no matter what I guess, but I tend to not give the bust label to those that got injured but were performing as expected before the injury. So got me I'd remove Cobb/Julio/Rodgers from that list. Martin was disappointing me before the injury, so I'd leave him on. That's just me though.
    2013 predictions

    -Cobb outscores Harvin in PPR
    -Chris Ivory will be a top 15RB
    -Kenny Britt finishes outside the top 20WRs
  • SmittySmitty January 23
    Posts: 6,733
    branch0095 said:

    Busts are busts no matter what I guess, but I tend to not give the bust label to those that got injured but were performing as expected before the injury. So got me I'd remove Cobb/Julio/Rodgers from that list. Martin was disappointing me before the injury, so I'd leave him on. That's just me though.



    Well, I did label this "bust/letdown" ... getting hurt is a letdown. Rodgers, DMartin, Julio, I don't know about you, but in a big money league I had all three and I sure was letdown :)
    - Smitty | Owner/Founder | DraftCalc.com
  • zeeshan2zeeshan2 January 23
    Posts: 1,454
    Ppl were taking cj2k before bush?!
  • rhinos00 January 24
    Posts: 533
    12-team big money league and I thought I was going to run away with it after the draft...Martin, Spiller, T-Rich, and Julio in the first 4 rounds...devastating. I mind as well have forfeited my first four picks and started drafting the 5th round.
  • DeathStarsDeathStars January 24
    Posts: 485
    tmoney said:

    16/36 and 5 of the top 12.  Ouch



    Right there with ya buddy....tough year.
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