Keeper trade question: Spiller or AJ Green and Wilson

Pick a side for standard scoring redraft, but with very limited 2 keepers (Lynch, Morris, and Cobb are the only other top 36 players being kept). Draft positions are 8 and 9 out of 12.

A)
CJ Spiller in the 4th
Mike Williams in the 11th (Throw-in. Other options include Kaepernick in the 5th or Gronkowski in the 3rd but neither really offers much keeper value in those rounds)
B)
AJ Green in the 2nd
David Wilson in the 4th

I like B...

Why aren't the top 36 sans Lynch/Morris/Cobb being kept?

Our keeper rules are basically 2 players drafted last year minus 3 rounds. As such, the first 3 rounds are completely ineligible to be kept. If you found great value last year from rounds 4 on, then you have the potential for a keeper. I drafted Spiller in the 7th round last year, so he's eligible as a keeper in round 4. Cobb was drafted in round 15, so he is being kept in round 12. A few other keepers include Morris as a 6th, Cam as a 7th (because he was taken in the 13th the previous year and kept as a 10th), Ridley in the 9th (again drafted in the 15 2 years ago). I drafted Gronkowski in the 9th 2 years ago, kept him for a 6th last year, and was looking like I would keep him in the 3rd before all the injuries and surgeries.

Green and Wilson

B

JRMRRT said:

Green and Wilson

this

So far, it seems like Green and Wilson is the consensus. I will have to make this offer later on (as soon as it's confirmed if the owner is still playing. He is living oversees right now and don't know if he will continue). It also falls inline with Smitty's strategy of going Calvin, Green, Ball (or other RB), and Wilson. (If the other owner quits, the next owner is ineligible for his keepers. Funny side story but when I joined two years ago, the previous owner could have had McCoy in the 4th and Vincent Jackson in the 7th and when I drafted I ended up taking McCoy in the 1st and VJax in the 2nd. My team name was Kept Shady and VJax anyways).

Green and Wilson no doubt.

I feel like I'd take A based on the draft positions and rounds lost.

Think about it....It's essentially a redraft. David Wilson for a 4th has little value, as that's where he's probably taken in a redraft anyway. Green in the second is decent value, but considering you don't get to keep him next year, you'll get similar performance grabbing a Dez or Marshall with your second anyway.

There is no touching Spiller's value in losing a 4th rounder. He's going top 3-5 in redrafts as well as dynasties. You still have your first three rounds of picks, where, drafting in the late 1st, will likely land you:

1st: Rice/Mccoy

2nd: Marshall/Dez/maybe Julio

3rd: Flexibility to go with a Brees, or take a rookie RB or Miller, or a solid WR1 like Harvin

I think the team winds up much better by taking Spiller side

fontaines said:

I feel like I'd take A based on the draft positions and rounds lost.

Think about it....It's essentially a redraft. David Wilson for a 4th has little value, as that's where he's probably taken in a redraft anyway. Green in the second is decent value, but considering you don't get to keep him next year, you'll get similar performance grabbing a Dez or Marshall with your second anyway.

There is no touching Spiller's value in losing a 4th rounder. He's going top 3-5 in redrafts as well as dynasties. You still have your first three rounds of picks, where, drafting in the late 1st, will likely land you:

1st: Rice/Mccoy

2nd: Marshall/Dez/maybe Julio

3rd: Flexibility to go with a Brees, or take a rookie RB or Miller, or a solid WR1 like Harvin

I think the team winds up much better by taking Spiller side

Those are great points fontaines. Wilson is going in the 2nd now in most startups and Green in the late 1st though, but what you said makes a ton of sense.

Thanks JR: yeah i haven't kept up on redraft ADPs recently but i think yall get my point :) getting the potential #1 overall player for a 4th rounder kinda trumps any other value available in the trade IMO

I can pretty much assure you (knowing my leaguemates) that the first picks in the draft will be (in no particular order) AP, Foster, Martin, Trent, Charles, Rice, and McCoy. I would be shocked if Calvin isn't taken next since it's a no-brainer to me to take him at 9. Considering Spiller, Lynch, Morris, Ridley are all going to be kept the next best RBs are Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson. I can see at most 1 QB taken in the first 16 picks (with the 13th pick), so it will likely come down to Graham and the WRs (at least a couple of AJ Green, Dez, Marshall, and Julio should be gone - but I can't see all of them being gone) with the 2nd pick (or maybe RBs like MJD, Bush, Murray, McFadden, or Gore - all of which I would rather go WR or TE instead). I should have a chance at Miller or Cruz with the 3rd pick. I'm hoping Ball sticks around, but Martin went in the 2nd last year as RBs tend to be taken early and often (in my league).

So my hypothetical teams could be:
A) Steven Jackson, Julio/Marshall/Graham, Cruz/Miller, Spiller
B) Steven Jackson, AJ Green, Cruz/Miller, Wilson
(If I were lucky enough to get Calvin or Green - if not kept - then I would much rather go that way in the 1st.)

In my opinion, I would rather have Spiller as my RB1 instead of Wilson.

If you want all 3 players

A

1. AJ Green

2. ???

3. David Wilson

4. CJ Spiller K

B

1. CJ Spiller

2. AJ Green K

3. ???

4. David Wilson K

So if you want all 3 of them - A gives you a better deal as you get a second round pick as opposed to a third round pick. It's possible that you have to reach for David Wilson with A depending on your spot, but still you have the option to see what happens leading up to your second round pick where you can decide to reach for Wilson or not - if you reach you're still no worse off than the other option.

Wait, I'm an idiot - I didn't realize that you are trading one set of keepers for the other... =P

Seems like the other guy won't be continuing from overseas. In that case, AJ Green just went to the top of my targets in the 1st round unless someone like Calvin or one of the RBs (here's hoping for Trent) to fall. Graham and Julio are top targets in the 2nd round. 3rd round will be whichever RB falls to me between Ball, Wilson, and Miller. I can still go Cruz if there is a huge RB run and take my chances with an RB2 in round 5 or later. Steven Jackson is really the only RB I would consider (with my 1st rounder) and he would be great as an RB2 behind Spiller.

1) Can anyone convince me to draft Steven Jackson over AJ Green in the 1st? (Although I would really hate to go SJax then Julio).
2) Can anyone convince me not to take Graham if he's there in the 2nd round?

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