Devaluing WR's

I know most of you are aware that the WR position is deep once you get beyond the studs, but wanted to pass this along for reference. This is a nonppr league, standard scoring.

Last season:

6^th ranked WR outscored the 16^th ranked WR by 1.63 PPG.

16^th ranked WR outscored the 26^th ranked WR by 2.13 PPG.

26^th ranked WR outscored the 36^th ranked WR by 1.06 PPG.

36^th ranked WR outscored the 46^th ranked WR by 0.89 PPG.

46^th ranked WR outscored the 56^th ranked WR by 0.80 PPG.

The 26^th ranked WR outscored the 56^th ranked WR by 2.75 PPG. 30 spots difference was less than 3 PPG.

What does it tell us? Well, it tells me to try and get 1 or 2 of those really top tier guys (Calvin through DT), then draft the crap out of RB's while everyone else is drafting WR's. Then try to land a couple high upside sleeper types later on. If you go RB in the first (which is likely in my case), you could still get one of the top WR's, but then probably worth waiting till the middle rounds to get the rest of your WR's. What do you all glean from this, if anything?

I think this year holds even crazier stats than that. I really think there is a large third tier of WR this year that could boom/bust. Lot of crazy situations. Plus the split backfields make RB early almost a necessity anymore.

Agreed.

I think if you can snag a stud WR in the 2nd then by all means.

But last year showed me more than ever that having a stable of RBs is crucial.

VJax almost always falls to the late 3rd/4th. I got Demaryius Thomas and Torrey Smith 4th/5th last year. These guys are #1 on their teams and warriors. You are not getting top 15 RBs in this range. You're not getting them past the early 3rd. Unless it's a PPR AND Big Play reward League it's very hard to take one in the 1st.

I look back at my Dynasty's original drafts (I am in two large 2 QB DEEP ASS ROSTER Dynasty's) and in both of them I waited until the 8th to draft my first WR. This is in large part to stacking QBs and stud young RBs. I got Randall Cobb 121st overall and in my older one I got Vincent Jackson as my first WR in the 10th Rd or something like that (they took away the view draft results from older leagues, assholes).

Obviously having some foresight helps in that regard, and dynasty is different than redraft, but with teams able to support up to 4 plausible WR but only 2 plausible RBs in almost all instances (at the very MOST) the position of WR just allows for so many more players stepping up and coming out of nowhere (degree of nowhere debatable based on league size and research done).

RBs early are a necessity because of both their scarcity and the realization of their scarcity. I think going earlier on TEs than in the past will be pretty big as well.....

I agree with Robbyrobdu. Doing lots of auction leagues, my research (I forget the actual numbers) but it's close to 30% of WR's finishing in the top 24 in a 12 team league but who are ranked outside of the top 24 is around 30%. It means your WR2 & WR3 are not going to be drafted early. I like, too, like the load up on RB option while others are grabbing WR's & QB's. Serviceable QB's & WR's are very deep compared to RB's.

robbyrobdu said:

I think if you can snag a stud WR in the 2nd then by all means.

But last year showed me more than ever that having a stable of RBs is crucial.

VJax almost always falls to the late 3rd/4th. I got Demaryius Thomas and Torrey Smith 4th/5th last year. These guys are #1 on their teams and warriors. You are not getting top 15 RBs in this range. You're not getting them past the early 3rd. Unless it's a PPR AND Big Play reward League it's very hard to take one in the 1st.

I look back at my Dynasty's original drafts (I am in two large 2 QB DEEP ASS ROSTER Dynasty's) and in both of them I waited until the 8th to draft my first WR. This is in large part to stacking QBs and stud young RBs. I got Randall Cobb 121st overall and in my older one I got Vincent Jackson as my first WR in the 10th Rd or something like that (they took away the view draft results from older leagues, assholes).

Obviously having some foresight helps in that regard, and dynasty is different than redraft, but with teams able to support up to 4 plausible WR but only 2 plausible RBs in almost all instances (at the very MOST) the position of WR just allows for so many more players stepping up and coming out of nowhere (degree of nowhere debatable based on league size and research done).

RBs early are a necessity because of both their scarcity and the realization of their scarcity. I think going earlier on TEs than in the past will be pretty big as well.....

I disagree entirely.

Whether or not RBs or WRs are more valuable in dynasty is fully determined by your line up requirements, PPR or non-PPR standing, roster depth, the value of the position according to your league mates, and how long you think the league will last. If you start more WRs than RBs and it's PPR, they score nearly the same effective amount of points (in terms of VBD). If there is massive roster depth, It hurts your ability to pull an out of nowhere WR3 off the waiver wire since he will most likely already be rostered. If your league mates value WRs more than RBs, or RBs more than WRS, that has to reflect in your decision as well.

For me, I take AJG/Julio in the first round of a start up and don't bat an eye. I don't see a situation where they are not still considered first round value next year, or even three years from now. I think we will see a lot of new RB faces in the first round of dynasty start ups next year.

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