Lamar Miller or Montee Ball

Both are on the board with my pick in the fourth round. It's PPR. Looks like most here would lean towards Miller but my gut is telling me Montee is going to wind up a stud in that Denver offense. Which would you rather have and why?

dynasty or redraft?

Miller.. easy for me

It's a redraft league

Miller

Miller

Miller by an easy margin

agallant9 said:

I'd take Miller. I know Montee seems hyped right now, but go find how Wisconsin backs have faired in the NFL. That school produces crazy RB stats, but don't produce good NFL RBs. John Clay, Ron Dayne, Anthony Thomas, PJ Hill...all were supposed to be studs. None of them were/are. I predict the same for Ball. Miller looked very good in limited time on Sunday night. And Ball has way more competition than Miller.

I think Miller has at LEAST as much hype. Yes he has slightly less competition, but Ball was drafted to start. They also have a much better OLINE.

Also the comparison of players to players who played the same position at the same school is so arbitrary it's laughable.

Nobody expected any of those guys to be studs, the best of the bunch was Dayne and though he was drafted in the 1st round he was a shifty big guy who was the all-time NCAA Rushing Leader, there were positives there....I'm a HUGE NYG fan and I never expected him to be great just hoped for a quality player.

Watch Tape, Ball is definitely the best of that bunch and will be learning with the games best right next to him, and like i said behind a great OLINE.

Miller will be behind a shaky line and on a team with very few options even approaching elite.

I see Miller being a serviceable starter in the League but nothing special. Don't get too caught up in the hype of the next best thing and overshoot their ceiling unnecessarily ;-)

I'm just curious as to why everyone's knee jerk reaction is to go with Miller. Does Miamis offensive line and risk of Tannehill sucking not scare anyone off? If Montee Ball gets that starting job, he's put in a tremendous situation to possibly produce as a RB1. He'll have lanes to run through all day and hes a powerful back, once he gets past the line he'll pick up chunks of yardage and score a lot of TD's. I see the speed and quickness with Miller, but I don't understand why everyone is just anointing him to breakout in a big way when he's done virtually nothing in the NFL (I know, Ball hasn't either, I'm focusing more on Miller). I also can't find any good videos of Miller from college, the ones that I've seen are really not all that impressive IMO. Guess what am asking here is why with Miller? Is it just more of a gut call than anything??

If I had to make the pick today in a PPR redraft, I'd pick Miller.

However, I'd like to see some more camp and pre-season action, I put a lot of stock in what emerges during the pre-season. If Ball turns it on and Miller flounders I could easily swap sides on this.

Biddy711 said:

I'm just curious as to why everyone's knee jerk reaction is to go with Miller. Does Miamis offensive line and risk of Tannehill sucking not scare anyone off? If Montee Ball gets that starting job, he's put in a tremendous situation to possibly produce as a RB1. He'll have lanes to run through all day and hes a powerful back, once he gets past the line he'll pick up chunks of yardage and score a lot of TD's. I see the speed and quickness with Miller, but I don't understand why everyone is just anointing him to breakout in a big way when he's done virtually nothing in the NFL (I know, Ball hasn't either, I'm focusing more on Miller). I also can't find any good videos of Miller from college, the ones that I've seen are really not all that impressive IMO. Guess what am asking here is why with Miller? Is it just more of a gut call than anything??

It's a combination of his measurables and his situation.

It is a great combination to predict a breakout, the problem is how much of a breakout should one predict? I say be careful not to overshoot.

It also includes being able to pat yourself on the back and say "Yea, I got that top 10 back in the 4th Rd before he broke out, GO ME!"

That last sentiment is completely understandable. But if you start taking him as the 12th-15th back you enter the range of taking a RB who has done nothing close to PEAK value.

The difference is that many here I do believe see him as a top 5 RB if not higher, allowing them to take him late 2nd/3rd in redrafts and not blinking. I don't choose to go about things that way and am not a believer.

Most have him well over Bush, but if miller was better would he not have gotten more time? Would he not have done more with the time he had?

I personally don;t get the HYPE either...?

Biddy711 said:

I'm just curious as to why everyone's knee jerk reaction is to go with Miller. Does Miamis offensive line and risk of Tannehill sucking not scare anyone off? If Montee Ball gets that starting job, he's put in a tremendous situation to possibly produce as a RB1. He'll have lanes to run through all day and hes a powerful back, once he gets past the line he'll pick up chunks of yardage and score a lot of TD's. I see the speed and quickness with Miller, but I don't understand why everyone is just anointing him to breakout in a big way when he's done virtually nothing in the NFL (I know, Ball hasn't either, I'm focusing more on Miller). I also can't find any good videos of Miller from college, the ones that I've seen are really not all that impressive IMO. Guess what am asking here is why with Miller? Is it just more of a gut call than anything??

Miamis oline was actually really good in run blocking last year. They were top 5 in good run block %. As for tennehill I think it's more likely he takes a step forward with the weapons they have added.

Miller, I'm notoriously anti Monte Ball since last season though.

Here you go. 4.46 at pro day. So now I know you'll say it was WI pro day, they are always faster there. Even if you want to think that, take the average. 4.5's is not bad speed for a rb.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/9024377/montee-ball-shows-better-speed-wisconsin-badgers-pro-day

Also, Ball is not like any of the rbs you listed. Dayne, Hill, Clay, etc were all big bruising backs. Ball is a much different rb than WI has seen in many many years. Great vision, decent speed, great off. and OL and learning from one of the greats of the game. That looks like an equation for success to me.

agallant9 said:

BuckysGT said:

Here you go. 4.46 at pro day. So now I know you'll say it was WI pro day, they are always faster there. Even if you want to think that, take the average. 4.5's is not bad speed for a rb.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/9024377/montee-ball-shows-better-speed-wisconsin-badgers-pro-day

Also, Ball is not like any of the rbs you listed. Dayne, Hill, Clay, etc were all big bruising backs. Ball is a much different rb than WI has seen in many many years. Great vision, decent speed, great off. and OL and learning from one of the greats of the game. That looks like an equation for success to me.

Well there you have it. He ran a full 2 tenths of a second faster at his pro day. Seems realistic LOL. What about his bench, jumps, shuttle run? Did they all drastically improve as well? We can go back and forth all day on this. Only time will give us our answer. We can re-visit this in week 1 when he's not the starter, and then at the end of the season. Deal? ;)

and if you would have followed me on all the Ball posts you'd realize I don't expect him to start the season. How many rookie rbs actually do? But I do expect Ball to earn the job and be the main rb by mid season. When I've bought Ball, its not for this year. Its for next year and beyond.

Wound up taking miller. I really can see it going either way but I trust the opinions of many people on this site cause it was their opinions that won me the ship last season. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Ball wound up being a stud this season though, my guts just saying he will. My gut also told me McFadden would be an absolute beast last year though :( lol. Luckily I drafted Spiller and Martin too, would never had given Spiller a thought if it weren't for draft calc.

Biddy711 said:

Wound up taking miller. I really can see it going either way but I trust the opinions of many people on this site cause it was their opinions that won me the ship last season. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Ball wound up being a stud this season though, my guts just saying he will. My gut also told me McFadden would be an absolute beast last year though :( lol. Luckily I drafted Spiller and Martin too, would never had given Spiller a thought if it weren't for draft calc.

Miller was the best choice, Ball could still be there later if you feel the need to take him

I drafted DMC, Harvin, Hernandez, Murray, Mathews, and Nicks last year in one league, luckily it was not a cookie league, reason I went with high risk/high reward players, sadly I hit fail on every one of them...

Montee Ball headed towards a RBBC

ESPN's Jeff Legwold expects the Broncos to use a committee approach at running back.

Legwold is ESPN's new Broncos' beat writer, and previously covered the team for the Denver Post. Legwold goes as far as to say "fantasy football owners be damned, the Broncos stand poised to break out the committee to run the ball once again in 2013."

Biddy711 said:

Wound up taking miller. I really can see it going either way but I trust the opinions of many people on this site cause it was their opinions that won me the ship last season. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Ball wound up being a stud this season though, my guts just saying he will. My gut also told me McFadden would be an absolute beast last year though :( lol. Luckily I drafted Spiller and Martin too, would never had given Spiller a thought if it weren't for draft calc.

love montee alot but was the choice here imho.

Miller was the right choice for redraft.

agallant9 said:

agallant9 said:

I'd take Miller. I know Montee seems hyped right now, but go find how Wisconsin backs have faired in the NFL. That school produces crazy RB stats, but don't produce good NFL RBs. John Clay, Ron Dayne, Anthony Thomas, PJ Hill...all were supposed to be studs. None of them were/are. I predict the same for Ball. Miller looked very good in limited time on Sunday night. And Ball has way more competition than Miller.

I think Miller has at LEAST as much hype. Yes he has slightly less competition, but Ball was drafted to start. They also have a much better OLINE.

Also the comparison of players to players who played the same position at the same school is so arbitrary it's laughable.

Nobody expected any of those guys to be studs, the best of the bunch was Dayne and though he was drafted in the 1st round he was a shifty big guy who was the all-time NCAA Rushing Leader, there were positives there....I'm a HUGE NYG fan and I never expected him to be great just hoped for a quality player.

Watch Tape, Ball is definitely the best of that bunch and will be learning with the games best right next to him, and like i said behind a great OLINE.

Miller will be behind a shaky line and on a team with very few options even approaching elite.

I see Miller being a serviceable starter in the League but nothing special. Don't get too caught up in the hype of the next best thing and overshoot their ceiling unnecessarily ;-)

The reason for the player comparison, is because the Badgers are famous for producing massive numbers for RBs no matter who it is. When you watch tape on how "good" Ball is. Is it him who was great at Wisconsin, or was it his line and system? What makes Ball any different? Was it his blazing 4.66/40 time? His amazing 15 reps on the bench? As a matter of fact, the only thing he did at the combine that was above average, was the 3-cone drill. Everything else, well below average. But becasue you saw him do the same thing that John Clay did, he's an exception? As for the OLines, yes the Broncos have a great one, but who is he gonna outrun with 4.66 speed? I know who Lamar will outrun at 4.40. I've said it before and I'll continue to say it. Ball is a hyped up product of Badger football.

When I watch tape I focus on what the player does. I can see a lot of promise in even a run for loss, I am doing my best not to factor in the blocking and the holes opened up. That is how I watch tape. I see patience, foot speed, vision, explosiveness, lateral quickness, I watch the player.

Many players play faster than they run in a straight line with no pads and nothing other than trying to get a fast time. Put a ball in a guy's hands and put mammoth men around him trying to tackle and hurt him and you get different people.

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