Upside Board Announcement: No. 1 Released Early

Due to this player's probably rise in ADP, and given their ADP is already climbing fast, I didn't want to wait to release No.1 so that everyone can take advantage of the still-3rd- to-4th-round ADP (redraft).

I had to clear out the last topic on this because everyone was talking about the player's name, which isn't fair to paid subscribers.

As hard as it is, please don't discuss the player's name (Im just talking about in this thread)... in this thread. Instead, create a new topic that doesn't tie the person to the Upside Board and ask away in that thread... or, just talk about this player without specifics (just in this thread I mean).

aye aye cap

might have to start some trade talks soon, tried getting the guy last year before the draft, but no luck

Yeah I have shot out plenty of offers already for him. I am packaging him with other players with higher perceived values so that they don't have any idea who I am really after.

Thanks @texasborncowboysfan

It's only natural to want to debate it here, but all one has to do is create a brand new topic about the player so that No. 1 isn't obviously revealed.

jknighton said:

Yeah I have shot out plenty of offers already for him. I am packaging him with other players with higher perceived values so that they don't have any idea who I am really after.

Just stay near that ADP when you buy low! Again, someone is going to come to me in a few weeks (I know it) and say, "you better be right about [no. 1 upside board player], because I just traded away LeSean McCoy for him..." or they will tell me they just drafted him in the first round... that isn't what I'm advising... the reason he is No.1 on the Upside Board is because he can go from 3rd to 4th rounder to a first round producing talent, and that wins leagues. You start buying at top 12 value, or even top 15, your risk goes up and you have almost no upside (because he now has to have 1800 total yards and 12 scores and 50 receptions for you to get even strong value out of the investment.

It's all about ADP, and for those that think he isn't bold enough, I ask why he is still a 3rd- to 4th-round player? That means that in general he is very, very underrated given the first-round type production upside. That's Upside!! That's huge upside!

Will his situation change so that he becomes a 2nd rounder? It could, as the months move along... sure. Will he still be worth a late 2nd rounder WHEN/IF THE TIME COMES? Probably, but the "upside" drops a ton because now you're talking about him outperforming his value by a round vs like 3... so it relatively changes the upside, thus he may not be an Upside Board candidate all off-season long (which will be a shame).

Also, to those who asked about making the Upside Board Dynasty, as @JrMRRT suggested, the group listed is all kinda young, so the thinking can translate, but the ADPs of those players in dynasty might be higher, so the upside is a touch less in some cases... But, I do kind of touch on 'redraft' vs. 'dynasty' in each write up now (notice the last sentence in No. 1's write-up)....

But, also.... I will be adding probably 2 Dynasty Upside Board Players, so there will be 12 total come August.... 10 Redraft (With some dynasty talk in there here and there).... and 2 Dynasty Recommendations.

Smitty said:

jknighton said:

Yeah I have shot out plenty of offers already for him. I am packaging him with other players with higher perceived values so that they don't have any idea who I am really after.

Just stay near that ADP when you buy low! Again, someone is going to come to me in a few weeks (I know it) and say, "you better be right about [no. 1 upside board player], because I just traded away LeSean McCoy for him..." or they will tell me they just drafted him in the first round... that isn't what I'm advising... the reason he is No.1 on the Upside Board is because he can go from 3rd to 4th rounder to a first round producing talent, and that wins leagues. You start buying at top 12 value, or even top 15, your risk goes up and you have almost no upside (because he now has to have 1800 total yards and 12 scores and 50 receptions for you to get even strong value out of the investment.

It's all about ADP, and for those that think he isn't bold enough, I ask why he is still a 3rd- to 4th-round player? That means that in general he is very, very underrated given the first-round type production upside. That's Upside!! That's huge upside!

Will his situation change so that he becomes a 2nd rounder? It could, as the months move along... sure. Will he still be worth a late 2nd rounder WHEN/IF THE TIME COMES? Probably, but the "upside" drops a ton because now you're talking about him outperforming his value by a round vs like 3... so it relatively changes the upside, thus he may not be an Upside Board candidate all off-season long (which will be a shame).

I have sent out something like Le'veon, T. Williams, and rookie pick (late) for (Insert player name) & Cobb.

Nice.

Smitty said:

jknighton said:

Yeah I have shot out plenty of offers already for him. I am packaging him with other players with higher perceived values so that they don't have any idea who I am really after.

Just stay near that ADP when you buy low! Again, someone is going to come to me in a few weeks (I know it) and say, "you better be right about [no. 1 upside board player], because I just traded away LeSean McCoy for him..." or they will tell me they just drafted him in the first round... that isn't what I'm advising... the reason he is No.1 on the Upside Board is because he can go from 3rd to 4th rounder to a first round producing talent, and that wins leagues. You start buying at top 12 value, or even top 15, your risk goes up and you have almost no upside (because he now has to have 1800 total yards and 12 scores and 50 receptions for you to get even strong value out of the investment.

It's all about ADP, and for those that think he isn't bold enough, I ask why he is still a 3rd- to 4th-round player? That means that in general he is very, very underrated given the first-round type production upside. That's Upside!! That's huge upside!

Will his situation change so that he becomes a 2nd rounder? It could, as the months move along... sure. Will he still be worth a late 2nd rounder WHEN/IF THE TIME COMES? Probably, but the "upside" drops a ton because now you're talking about him outperforming his value by a round vs like 3... so it relatively changes the upside, thus he may not be an Upside Board candidate all off-season long (which will be a shame).

Great write up^
Could have used this info like a week ago...lol

Good stuff

So v jax for **** is value ???

@Smitty ^

@Go With What You Got!!!! Flag on the play! Player *** is better than VJax, sure. It's no lock, but I like that value in redraft, and absolutely do in dynasty.

TexasBornCowboysFan said:

@Smitty ^

Snitches get stitches...

Ha just playing

So v jax for **** is value ???

Sooooo...the #1 upside guy isn't V-Jack? LOL

LukeB5301 said:

TexasBornCowboysFan said:

@Smitty ^

Snitches get stitches...

Ha just playing

Nah, the only way @texasborncowboysfan gets stitches is if he walks into Cardinals stadium with his Romo jersey on ... ;)

boobam13 said:

So v jax for **** is value ???

Sooooo...the #1 upside guy isn't V-Jack? LOL

Well, I like VJax, and he is underrated no doubt (so I recommend someone get him too).. but his ADP (VJax) is about 4.08 in redraft right now... so **** player at that value? Yep, sure is value. So is VJax though, so it's a tough example. But, player *** at even mid third is a steal big picture wise. But buying him higher than one has to is crazy, it just makes you lose all that upside.

No. 1 has SO MUCH room in the Upside direction. I have seen a couple times on the forum where many say his value is maxing out or through the roof, or that he is unattainable because his value is now already too high. I don't see this at all. Sure, in one league you might run across an owner that thinks like us here at DC, and he might value No. 1 on the Upside Board like we do. Well, in that situation, of course you won't get him from that owner. That's one league. He has an ADP in the 3rd to 4th round and ADPs are what they are. Averages.

Unlike last year, when a player increases past being an Upside Board pick anymore, I won't take them off like last year... instead, they will be grayed out to show that the prediction was ahead of the trend. So, if No. 1 soon climbs into high 3rd round value and then into the 2nd, well, he may get grayed out on the Upside Board, but he will remain in the 1 spot as proof the Upside Board called out the warning shot.

So act now, but buy at late 3rd to 4th round value only. If the league in question has an owner that likes him like we do, don't overpay, move on. Paying high 3rd round value is not overpaying, but only pay that if you have to.

Smitty said:

LukeB5301 said:

TexasBornCowboysFan said:

@Smitty ^

Snitches get stitches...

Ha just playing

Nah, the only way @texasborncowboysfan gets stitches is if he walks into Cardinals stadium with his Romo jersey on ... ;)

I'd be more scared to wear a SF jersey to a Raiders game.

Ha

The sketch for No. 2 is up finally :)

So would you trade 1.01 in a 2QB league for the new #1 on the Upside Board. Also have pick 1.04.

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