Will Toby Gerhart be the RB1 in Jacksonville?

Sorry.. Stupid phone

I am a big believer in Gerhart being a fantasy steal this year. The time to buy Gerhart for nothing has passed. (I bought him for Tim Wright this past Sunday). If you still want to take a shot on him for relatively low prices, you still have some time to do that. His cost and ADP will steadily rise into low RB2 territory as the offseason progresses. I think he possesses upside from there too. I could see Gerhart churn out a top 15 season this year.

Gerhart has the pedigree, he's lined up to get the work load and he's a pretty good pass catching back too. With JAX figuring to play from behind a lot, this is good news for Gerhart in PPR leagues as he should be in the game racking up catches towards the end of the game. Many will fight tooth and nail against Gerhart doing anything this year, but at his current cost , Gerhart could be a game changer for owners. You all have been warned. Don't overlook Toby Gerhart.

LukeB5301 said:

Dmac was experts #1 or #2 fa rb??? Oookkkk... and don't forget, dmac took less money to go back to Oakland

Tate, McFadden, Jennings were top 3 in a lot of free agent lists I've seen. More to the point, not many had Gerhart ranked higher.

branch0095 said:

Don't overlook Toby Gerhart.

Looks like this is gonna be one of the most interesting situations to monitor in 2014. Guess a lot depends on the price tag to get him on your roster.

reminds much of michael turner to atlanta. jax will want to run and when they fall behind, gerhart is good in the passing game. he makes a great rb2 IMO.

well.....i believe that mjd is a far superior nfl rb to mr toby and last year barely was a top 25 rb as the #1 rb for jacksonville...that was with 235 carries and 43 receptions....once again my personal opinion....but i think if all goes perfectly for toby...meaning they bring NOBODY else in.... the most he could possibly expect is 235 carrys and 43 receptions which by my toby calculations would put him around the 25-30 ranked rb.....i just dont see how they dont bring in another body that at least eats into his production....

When it gets late in the season and JAC has a 4-9 record, they'll prob also want to see what the new guy can do (if they draft a RB). I don't typically trust rbs on poor offenses. JAC isn't exactly a juggernaut. He could be an Rb2, but it's a situation I'd rather avoid unless he falls to me or I can get him on the cheap cheap

donvaughn said:

When it gets late in the season and JAC has a 4-9 record, they'll prob also want to see what the new guy can do (if they draft a RB). I don't typically trust rbs on poor offenses. JAC isn't exactly a juggernaut. He could be an Rb2, but it's a situation I'd rather avoid unless he falls to me or I can get him on the cheap cheap

Yeah and he is already not coming cheap. I shot a 2.04 someones way just to see if it would work for Gerhart and he came back at me with Gerhart & Colston for Victor Cruz... no chance.. I'll pass all day at that price. I also seen him go for Da'Rick and the 2.04 in another league.

It's not that I don't believe he can do well, I just don't trust the situation. I sell high at every turn, actually, already have. I now own him in ZERO leagues, and if he does do well, I lose no sleep because I sold high.

Traded RG3 for Foles by throwing in Gerhart. Some may like RG3 still, as do I, but Foles is ready for top 1-2QB numbers. Gerhart has perfect "throw in" value to get an upgrade at QB1 or RB1 or WR1 (like Marshall and Gerhart for Julio Jones or AJ Green, if you want to go younger at WR but get a bigger name).

FarFromHome said:well.....i believe that mjd is a far superior nfl rb to mr toby and last year barely was a top 25 rb as the #1 rb for jacksonville...that was with 235 carries and 43 receptions....once again my personal opinion....but i think if all goes perfectly for toby...meaning they bring NOBODY else in.... the most he could possibly expect is 235 carrys and 43 receptions which by my toby calculations would put him around the 25-30 ranked rb.....i just dont see how they dont bring in another body that at least eats into his production....

MJD was a far superior back. Unfortunately it looked like he was running in mud last year and couldn't make anyone miss. When MJD was healthy he was producing great numbers on terrible teams with terrible QBs. This is not to say that we should expect MJD type production from a few years ago.

What body are they realistically going to bring in? They still need a lot of help on the offensive line & a pass rusher which i've read is a priority to Gus Bradley. They also need linebacker help & will need another young QB. They'll probably add a WR too before a RB.

Here's a recent beat report from Jax that reviews recent FA acquisitions and their team needs heading into draft. Not even a single mention of adding a RB.

http://espn.go.com/blog/jacksonville-jaguars/post/_/id/4628/jags-filling-needs-for-more-draft-flexibility

I wouldn't trust any beat reports. It's all speculation. Teams rarely give away their draft needs or players they're targeting unless it's smoke and mirrors.

Good point @Smitty. Gerhart does have that throw in upside quality right now to get a trade done. I dealt AP/Gerhart recently for Brees, Pierce, a 2015 2nd and 3rd. I needed an elite QB but didn't want to give up AP. I threw in Gerhart(a handcuff situation I no longer needed) for a future upgrade at RB imo. Now I'm close to flipping those 2 picks for Rice.

donvaughn said:

Good point @Smitty. Gerhart does have that throw in upside quality right now to get a trade done. I dealt AP/Gerhart recently for Brees, Pierce, a 2015 2nd and 3rd. I needed an elite QB but didn't want to give up AP. I threw in Gerhart(a handcuff situation I no longer needed) for a future upgrade at RB imo. Now I'm close to flipping those 2 picks for Rice.

Brees, Rice and Pierce will be a good end result. Unless QBs are gold in your league, AP should have been enough, but yes, you are right, Gerhart is great for inking deals.

Again, those that like Gerhart, trust your gut, the deals I'm doing going to have me sleeping tight even if Gerhart does really well. Selling high affords that kind of stuff. If Gerhart fails, that's when the other side doesn't sleep tight.

Smitty said:

It's not that I don't believe he can do well, I just don't trust the situation. I sell high at every turn, actually, already have. I now own him in ZERO leagues, and if he does do well, I lose no sleep because I sold high.

Traded RG3 for Foles by throwing in Gerhart. Some may like RG3 still, as do I, but Foles is ready for top 1-2QB numbers. Gerhart has perfect "throw in" value to get an upgrade at QB1 or RB1 or WR1 (like Marshall and Gerhart for Julio Jones or AJ Green, if you want to go younger at WR but get a bigger name).

Selling high is always an option, I've thrown him on the block too. Though I'd be hesitant to sell now because his stock is going to go up again after the draft. I think post draft is the time to sell high, but if you can get a deal you like by all means do it.

Who could they bring in you say?...well they got Toby and todman as the lead backs...spending a 3rd on a rookie seems very possible

FarFromHome said:

Who could they bring in you say?...well they got Toby and todman as the lead backs...spending a 3rd on a rookie seems very possible

They also have DRob in the mix, whom they drafted last year. Lets say you are correct in they draft a guy in the 3rd round. Who do you see them getting at 3.06 (#70) in the rookie draft that is a better option than Toby in 2014?

Toby has already been vetted by the NFL draft process and was selected in the 2nd round by a team with a HOF RB.

Even if the status quo remains the same, it's a backfield situation I'd rather avoid. I'll let someone else put their chips in on that one and I'll take my chances elsewhere. My gut tells me buyer beware, but fortune favors the bold. Go for it if you feel good about it.

tone1oc said:

FarFromHome said:

Who could they bring in you say?...well they got Toby and todman as the lead backs...spending a 3rd on a rookie seems very possible

They also have DRob in the mix, whom they drafted last year. Lets say you are correct in they draft a guy in the 3rd round. Who do you see them getting at 3.06 (#70) in the rookie draft that is a better option than Toby in 2014?

Toby has already been vetted by the NFL draft process and was selected in the 2nd round by a team with a HOF RB.

Seastrunk or Sankey could easily give him a run for his money if they were drafted in JAX.

tone1oc said:

Smitty said:

It's not that I don't believe he can do well, I just don't trust the situation. I sell high at every turn, actually, already have. I now own him in ZERO leagues, and if he does do well, I lose no sleep because I sold high.

Traded RG3 for Foles by throwing in Gerhart. Some may like RG3 still, as do I, but Foles is ready for top 1-2QB numbers. Gerhart has perfect "throw in" value to get an upgrade at QB1 or RB1 or WR1 (like Marshall and Gerhart for Julio Jones or AJ Green, if you want to go younger at WR but get a bigger name).

Selling high is always an option, I've thrown him on the block too. Though I'd be hesitant to sell now because his stock is going to go up again after the draft. I think post draft is the time to sell high, but if you can get a deal you like by all means do it.

I've found that alone, Gerhart has little value. Most just question him, or worry about the coaching on this one... but, yeah, in a 2-for-1, he is easier to trust and people say, 'eh, ok, I see this as a benefit" and boom.

Howdy, Stranger!

Categories

In this Discussion

Top Posters

Who's Online (8)