Early 2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Dynasty)
Below you will find an extremely early 2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Dynasty), which consisted of myself and a grip of some of our most knowledgable forum moderators and users here at DraftCalc.
This was a dynasty-based mock draft, which means that everyone drafting was doing so as if we would be keeping these players for the long-term. The scoring was based off of a standard PPR scoring format.
Be sure to comment below on some of the selections. Were some picks too high, were some too low? Mark down your opinion below!
1.01 – Wutthecrapman – Doug Martin, RB, TB
1.02 – greatprodigy – Ray Rice, RB, BAL
1.03 – fontaines – Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
1.04 – branch0095 – Trent Richardson, RB, CLE
1.05 – garyzab – AJ Green, WR, CIN
1.06 – bddavidson – Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
1.07 – LukeB5301 – CJ Spiller, RB, BUF
1.08 – Smitty – Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
1.09 – footballjunkie – Arian Foster, RB, HOU
1.10 – JRMRRT – Lesean McCoy, RB, PHI
1.11 – thedude – Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
1.12 – Mile_High_Man – Aaron Rogers, QB, GB
Smitty’s Take: There were a couple surprises in this first-round, as Doug Martin went at 1.01 and C.J. Spiller was grabbed at 1.07. While both runners were grabbed a touch high by projected Average Draft Position (ADP) standards, it’s quite possible that their 2013 fantasy football ADPs could reach those levels… anything is possible. And, really, to be fair, any ADP data you look at right now is almost too raw at this point… You won’t find too many higher on Spiller than myself, and Martin is already a safe first-round pick, it’s just a matter of how high one should take him. Probably the most interesting value was Adrian Peterson going at 1.09. Yes, he will be 28 come the start of 2013, but the physical freak-of-a-runner is probably the best bet ever when it comes to a runner playing past that dreaded running back age of 30. As for A.J. Green at 1.05, Jamaal Charles at 1.11, Aaron Rodgers at 1.12, all that seems about right to me. And while I probably wouldn’t repeat my “QB in the first-round” strategy again, as I just don’t like how it leaves one’s running back stable, I love the value of Robert Griffin III at the 1.08 spot. If you’re in a draft where wide receivers are the position mostly flying off the board in the 2nd- and 3rd-rounds, well, that’s where RG3 in the first makes the most sense. RG3 might arguably be the No. 1 overall fantasy scorer in 2013 – That makes him, value-wise, a steal anywhere near that 1.08 range.
2.01 – Mile_High_Man – Julio Jones, WR, ATL
2.02 – thedude – Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
2.03 – JRMRRT – DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL
2.04 – footballjunkie – Cam Newton, QB, CAR
2.05 – Smitty – Matt Forte, RB, CHI
2.06 – LukeB5301 – Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN
2.07 – bddavidson – Brandon Marshall, WR, CHI
2.08 – garyzab – Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
2.09 – branch0095- Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
2.10 – fontaines – Andrew Luck, QB, IND
2.11 – greatprodigy – Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
2.12 – Wutthecrapman – Randall Cobb, WR, GB
Smitty’s Take: I love the Julio Jones grab at 2.01, even though it’s going to seem a bit high to some. The guy is a stud, and even though I love both A.J. Green and Calvin Johnson as next year’s neck-and-neck top two fantasy receivers, Julio is the one receiver below those two that could sneak in and beat out both as 2013′s top fantasy receiver. I think Jones will ultimately finish third, but my point is that he has the upside of any receiver taken in the first-round, so he is an amazing grab as anyone’s second-drafted player. I am really liking where Cam Newton is falling in all early 2013 mock drafts… the guy is back to form, yet many are still shy about making him their No. 1 drafted player – Great news for early second-round drafters in 2013! I think DeMarco Murray will be playing with a chip on his shoulder in 2013, and while he has to stay healthy, which is a big IF, I think he is a monster given where you will be able to get him in early 2013 fantasy drafts. I think 2.03 is decent-to-solid value, but my guess is his ADP will settle a bit lower than this come June, July and August, which is a positive thing for Murray believers. My Matt Forte selection at 2.05 has caused a bit of controversy on the forums here and there, but of all of the runners left at that point in the draft, only Marshawn Lynch and Alfred Morris seemed like worthy grabs over Forte. Looking back, I could have argued Lynch or Morris at that spot, no question, and that is especially the case for Morris after his 200-yard/3TD performance in Week 17… Still, given this draft took place before Morris’ Week 17 explosion, I still think that Forte has top 4-8 overall upside if healthy (yes, another big IF), and at this point in the fantasy football off-season, I’m willing to give Forte that kind of respect; he ended the 2013 regular season on a high note, rushing for 103 yards and a score. Early grabs, in my opinion, included: Andrew Luck at 2.10, Randall Cobb at 2.12 and Demaryius Thomas at 2.06. Are those bad selections because they feel a touch early? Absolutely not, it just comes down to draft value, and by June, July and August, all those players could have those kinds of ADPs, or higher. Right now, though, I will guess that they will not.
3.01 – Wutthecrapman – David Wilson, RB, NYG
3.02 – greatprodigy – Percy Harvin, WR, MIN
3.03 – fontaines – Steven Ridley, RB, NE
3.04 – branch0095 – Alfred Morris, RB, WAS
3.05 – garyzab – Darren McFadden, RB, OAK
3.06 – bddavidson – Drew Brees, QB, NO
3.07 – LukeB5301 – Chris Johnson, RB, TEN
3.08 – Smitty – Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
3.09 – footballjunkie – Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
3.10 – JRMRRT – Tom Brady, QB, NE
3.11 – thedude – Cecil Shorts, WR, JAC
3.12 – Mile_High_Man – Ryan Mathews RB, SD
Smitty’s Take: As I mentioned above, I was strongly considering drafting Alfred Morris at the 2.05 selection, which makes Morris a steal 3.04. I honestly don’t see Morris falling this far in fresh dynasty start-up drafts come August, but even as a late second-round pick, Morris still has monster upside. While he seems deserving of the 3.03, for some reason I’m not able to trust Stevan Ridley – yet. That could change, and I have almost zero evidence to support my doubt… call it a gut instinct, but Ridley doesn’t feel like an extremely long-term answer in New England. I could be way off and admit that’s pure speculation and gut instinct. I love the value of Darren McFadden at 3.05, as all that injury risk attached to the runner is extremely minimized. He is a steal in the 3rd- and 4th-rounds, but because McFadden is such an injury risk, just don’t go drafting him on all of your 2013 fantasy teams. Putting all your eggs in one basket is never a wise idea. He may only have 2-3 years left, but why is Drew Brees (3.06) falling so far in early 2013 dynasty start-up mocks? Both he and Tom Brady (3.10) are bargains at this point in mocks, and I recommend scooping up either around these ranges if you can in any league and any format in 2013! While anything can happen, I’m not liking Ryan Mathews (3.12) anywhere near the 3rd- or 4th-round in 2013 – I just don’t trust him whatsoever.
4.01 – Mile_High_Man – Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
4.02 – thedude – Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
4.03 – JRMRRT – Kenny Britt, WR, TEN
4.04 – footballjunkie – Larry Fitzgerald, WR, AZ
4.05 – Smitty – Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
4.06 – LukeB5301 – Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE
4.07 – bddavidson – Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
4.08 – garyzab – Vincent Jackson, WR, TB
4.09 – branch0095 – Michael Crabtree, WR, SF
4.10 – fontaines – Bryce Brown, RB, PHI
4.11 – greatprodigy – Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
4.12 – Wutthecrapman – Mathew Stafford, QB, DET
Smitty’s Take: I love the boldness in Russell Wilson at 4.02. Wilson was my No. 1 Bold Prediction for 2012, so clearly I’m liking his upside heading into 2013. Michael Crabtree feels a touch high at 4.09, but he has finished the 2012 regular season looking like a beast. I let someone else take him this high in 2013 fantasy football drafts, but I won’t argue that there isn’t a chance that he could earn 4th-round value. Bryce Brown is extremely high at 4.10, but honestly, as much as one may want to call that selection way too early, we’re one single LeSean McCoy hit away from seeing Brown start a string of games in 2013 and beyond. I wouldn’t recommend anyone take Brown this high, because you shouldn’t have to, which I believe will be proved once some solid dynasty ADP data emerges in the coming weeks and months… if someone else grabs Brown anywhere near this high, let them grab him and go after him in another league! That said, believing in Brown isn’t off-base, though. While I’m not expecting more than 1, maybe 2, elite seasons out of Andre Johnson, I think too many fantasy owners overlook aging fantasy players heading into fresh dynasty start-ups. You can draft for both the now and future when building a dynasty – AJ has a ton of value in this 4th-round range.
5.01 – Wutthecrapman – Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
5.02 – greatprodigy – Steve Johnson, WR, BUF
5.03 – fontaines – Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
5.04 – branch0095 – Danario Alexander, WR, SD
5.05 – garyzab – Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, ATL
5.06 – bddavidson – Ty Hilton, WR, IND
5.07 – LukeB5301 – Josh Gordon, WR, CLE
5.08 – Smitty – Wes Welker, WR, NE
5.09 – footballjunkie – Roddy White, WR, ATL
5.10 – JRMRRT – Miles Austin, WR, Dal
5.11 – thedude – BenJarvis Green-Ellis, RB, CIM
5.12 – Mile_High_Man – Mark Ingram, RB, NO
Smitty’s Take: Jacquizz Rodgers is an exciting prospect, but even I feel 5.05 might be a touch high.. This is a mock, and mocks are for making statements and toying with strategies and moves you may not ordinarily make in a real live draft. In time, I wouldn’t be shocked if Rodgers becomes a solid enough prospect to warrant 5th- or 6th-round dynasty start-up consideration, but not yet. I absolutely love the TY Hilton pick, and I would have snagged Hilton with my 5.08 had he not been drafted at 5.06. I think Hilton could turn out to be a fantasy WR1 as early as 2013, and he is one of my bigger middle-round breakout candidates heading into 2013! Great pick at 5.06! I think Wes Welker (5.08) is falling into a no risk/all reward territory in fresh dynasty start-ups!
6.01 – Mile_High_Man – Eric Decker, WR, DEN
6.02 – thedude – Danny Amendola, WR, STL
6.03 – JRMRRT – Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS
6.04 – footballjunkie – Greg Jennings, WR, GB
6.05 – Smitty – Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
6.06 – LukeB5301 – Collin Kapernick, QB, SF
6.07 – bddavidson – Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET
6.08 – garyzab – Andy Dalton, QB, CIN
6.09 – branch0095 – Jermaine Gresham TE, CIN
6.10 – fontaines – Golden Tate, WR, SEA
6.11 – greatprodigy – Marques Colston, WR, NO
6.12 – WTCM – Torrey Smith, WR, BAL
Smitty’s Take: Greg Jennings at 6.04 is interesting, as I think he is being written off unfairly. He could still have 1-2 years left at that elite level, but because we don’t yet know where he will be playing in 2013, I can understand why many are shy about rostering him. Still, 6th-round value is solid. Nothing else really jumps out in this round. While I think Knowshon Moreno could earn his 6.05 selection that I invested, to be truthful, grabbing Moreno in the 6th-round in a dynasty start-up was more the result of taking a QB in the first-round rather than me making a statement about Moreno.
Again, mock drafts are for testing out strategies, and my conclusion coming out of this draft is that as much as I want to roster either Aaron Rodgers or Robert Griffin III in 2013, the running back depth just isn’t deep enough in 2013 (so far, and of course that can change)… If you want strong RB1 and RB2 options in 2013 dynasty start-up drafts, or even 2013 redraft leagues for that matter, my advice is to wait on your passer and grab a Russell Wilson or Matt Ryan later in your draft, or go semi-early and grab a Drew Brees or Tom Brady. You can certainly win grabbing a passer in the first-round, I’m not saying you can’t, and as I mentioned above, grabbing a QB in the first works if your league mates are all receiver happy in the 2nd- and 3rd-rounds… however, in general, I firmly believe the path to victory and the path to building a winning team is an easier path to travel if you wait on your passer.