Ok, the 2012 NFL Super Bowl is over, so it’s now time to immediately start preparing for 2013 fantasy football season. If it’s too early for you to be concentrating on 2013 fantasy football, well, you’re in the wrong place!
Below you will find my 2013 Rookie Quarterback Analysis for the incoming 2013 fantasy football rookie class. Running Backs and Wide Receivers will soon follow.
Enjoy.
Quarterbacks
1. Geno Smith – QB (West Virginia)
I’ll be completely honest, I haven’t given Geno Smith enough credit up to this point, but I spent a lot of time studying some of his film this week and I’m really liking what I see. He has an NFL arm, he is obviously a great scrambling passer, but he is also very good at the quick-out throws, which will help him adjust early at that next level. He has pretty good feet when in the pocket, although, he moves around almost too much at times when in the pocket. He can roll left and throw, and he can put footballs where only his receivers can pull them in. He is truly accurate, has good touch, he is on time with his passes, all of which are qualities we’ve seen in Russell Wilson during his 2012 rookie season. Am I calling Smith the next Russell Wilson? Well, yeah, maybe… he has that upside, no question. He absolutely has what it takes to thrive at the NFL level, but it really boils down to his landing spot. Landing spots can make or break a rookie passer’s chances of becoming a good NFL passer right out of the gate. So, the big question is, will Smith land in a good situation? I’d say, most likely, yes, as the Chiefs have the No. 1 overall pick, the Jaguars the No. 2, and Oakland could be a landing spot if for whatever reason Smith fell to the three spot. And let’s get crazy and assume he falls, which I honestly feel he won’t… The Eagles (No. 4) and Lions (No. 5) aren’t likely to snag a passer with their first-round selections, so that leaves Cleveland at No. 6, a team that appears happy with Brandon Weeden, and then Arizona at No. 7, who would be thrilled to see Smith fall to them, and Larry Fitzgerald owners would also be thrilled. All of these places are good landing spots for Smith, or any rookie QB for that matter… all of these teams have solid receivers and passing situations. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon in Jacksonville, and Dwayne Bowe, who is a free agent though, in Kansas City.
Conclusion: I think situation determines a lot here, and I project Smith lands in a great one. Could he be a Russell Wilson type right out of the gate? Sure, but I always caution fantasy owners away from ever expecting elite passing numbers out of rookie quarterbacks. With the way these youngsters are evolving coming out of college, though, don’t rule out a Russell Wilson type emergence, though, and if anyone passer in this class is going drop that kind of rookie campaign, it’s Smith.
2. Mike Glennon – QB (N.C. State)
Mike Glennon is a good college passer, no doubt, and I won’t sit here and say he can’t do well at the next level if in the right situation, but I have a feeling we could be looking at a player that’s really good in
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Thoughts, predictions? Sleepers?
after watching Bray for years, i am with ya here and the rankings do look spot on!
Thanks, BDD. I could be wrong, and things change, and of course, landing spots mix things all up, but based on skill and ability out of the gate, this is where I feel they fall. It sure will be interesting where they all fall for me after the draft, or even heading into the draft.
Manuel and Scott are two of my sleepers. Scott is just so darn raw. Manuel can really move and has the arm and size to be a real good pro. Barkley would have been the 3rd QB selected had he come out last year… None of these QB’s have shown me enough to unseat him at the top. The one aspect that Barkley doesn’t get credit from a lot of folks is his leadership skills; something he has over all the rookie QB’s in this class. That alone keeps Barkley at the top for me. Nice analysis!
Well, you did amazing work keeping up the above rankings up until this point. Nice work, Junkie! For those that are new, I usually manage these all year long, but because I was slammed with a little more than normal in DEC, JAN, I had Junkie manage these, he did a great job.
As I said on the forums, anything can happen with fantasy football, especially with the rookies, and I am always rather careful not to rule out most things, as like I said, anything can happen. Could Barkley be a stud and I be way off? Absolutely, who predicted Brady’s rise in a fantasy football incoming rookie write-up? Not many, if any, so gems are always hanging around, and the landing spots for these passers will surely mix things up. Nice work, Junkie!
Everyone: I moved Tyler Bray to No. 4 just now.
It’s post draft now, and always fun to look at pre-draft rankings, especially for QBs, whose value to teams often has a lot of secrecy and whose combines don’t as wildly affect stock.
As an FSU fan living in Tallahassee, I agree with Manuel being in that range. He just doesn’t have the IT factor. Hes JaMarcus Russell 2.0…just wait til you see our new QB Jemeis Winston, kid is going to be Heisman contender THIS YEAR.
I agree with the junkie that Barkley still looks like the same QB. and he has the IT factor. His arm is not as weak as some make out, and he makes decisions quickly, he is smart, he is a leader. He’s in the ideal situation.
Tyler Wilson had a LOT to deal with his senior year and I have him as my 1b to Barkley, though I think his ceiling is higher.
As per my other threads I am going to keep the rest of my rookie rankings under wraps as we are mid-draft in The League.
Great write-up!
Solid take. Yeah, I still need to do the post draft QB analysis, look for that soon.