Ok, the 2012 NFL Super Bowl is over, so it’s now time to immediately start preparing for 2013 fantasy football season. If it’s too early for you to be concentrating on 2013 fantasy football, well, you’re in the wrong place!
Below you will find my 2013 Rookie Quarterback Analysis for the incoming 2013 fantasy football rookie class. Running Backs and Wide Receivers will soon follow.
1. Geno Smith – QB (West Virginia)
I’ll be completely honest, I haven’t given Geno Smith enough credit up to this point, but I spent a lot of time studying some of his film this week and I’m really liking what I see. He has an NFL arm, he is obviously a great scrambling passer, but he is also very good at the quick-out throws, which will help him adjust early at that next level. He has pretty good feet when in the pocket, although, he moves around almost too much at times when in the pocket. He can roll left and throw, and he can put footballs where only his receivers can pull them in. He is truly accurate, has good touch, he is on time with his passes, all of which are qualities we’ve seen in Russell Wilson during his 2012 rookie season. Am I calling Smith the next Russell Wilson? Well, yeah, maybe… he has that upside, no question. He absolutely has what it takes to thrive at the NFL level, but it really boils down to his landing spot. Landing spots can make or break a rookie passer’s chances of becoming a good NFL passer right out of the gate. So, the big question is, will Smith land in a good situation? I’d say, most likely, yes, as the Chiefs have the No. 1 overall pick, the Jaguars the No. 2, and Oakland could be a landing spot if for whatever reason Smith fell to the three spot. And let’s get crazy and assume he falls, which I honestly feel he won’t… The Eagles (No. 4) and Lions (No. 5) aren’t likely to snag a passer with their first-round selections, so that leaves Cleveland at No. 6, a team that appears happy with Brandon Weeden, and then Arizona at No. 7, who would be thrilled to see Smith fall to them, and Larry Fitzgerald owners would also be thrilled. All of these places are good landing spots for Smith, or any rookie QB for that matter… all of these teams have solid receivers and passing situations. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon in Jacksonville, and Dwayne Bowe, who is a free agent though, in Kansas City.
Conclusion: I think situation determines a lot here, and I project Smith lands in a great one. Could he be a Russell Wilson type right out of the gate? Sure, but I always caution fantasy owners away from ever expecting elite passing numbers out of rookie quarterbacks. With the way these youngsters are evolving coming out of college, though, don’t rule out a Russell Wilson type emergence, though, and if anyone passer in this class is going drop that kind of rookie campaign, it’s Smith.
2. Mike Glennon – QB (N.C. State)
Mike Glennon is a good college passer, no doubt, and I won’t sit here and say he can’t do well at the next level if in the right situation, but I have a feeling we could be looking at a player that’s really good in