Updated: 9/5/12
Russell Wilson – QB (SEA)
Upside Grades
Redraft ADP: 10.01-10.12 | 2012 Overall Max Potential: Top #5-12 | 2012 Position Max Potential: 5-8
Russell Wilson is the real deal, and if you think I’m crazy for having him as my No. 1 overall “Upside Player” for the 2012 fantasy football season, well, then you’re going to think I’m beyond crazy when you see the projections I have projected down below. I have Russell finishing as a top 5-6 fantasy passer this year. Sometimes in this game we call fantasy football, you don’t always have a lot to go on, and not every player has a big resume built up before it’s fantasy decision-making time… sometimes and you have to make predictions and projections based on more gut than fact. This is one of those scenarios, and I’m admitting right here that this is a risky and crazy-bold call. Still, I see elite talent in this passer. When I watch Wilson play, these are the things that instantly come to mind: Timing, Cam Newton, accurate, good decision-making, leader. Not convinced? Read more on him here, and watch these highlights here.
2012 Ceiling Projections
Pa Yds: 3,800 | Pa TDs: 26 | INTs: 11 | Ru Yds: 610 | Ru TDs: 6 | Could outperform ADP by: Over 9 Rounds
A.J. Green – WR (CIN)
Upside Grades
Redraft ADP: 3.05-3.08 | 2012 Overall Max Potential: Top 4-8 | 2012 Position Max Potential: 1-2
A.J. Green is by far one of my biggest breakout candidates heading into 2012. As it stands this very second, his ADP is right around that 3.04-3.08 range, which is crazy when you consider his potential. Not only does Green have the upside to finish as a top 4-8 overall fantasy scorer in 2012 (especially PPR formats), he arguably has a top 1-2 fantasy wide receiver ceiling. As a rookie, Green pulled in 65 receptions for 1,057 yards and 7TDs (with four 100-yard games); if he stays healthy, the stud-in-the-making is going to absolutely crush those numbers in 2012.
2012 Ceiling Projections
Receptions: 90 | Rec Yds: 1,400 | TDs: 15 | Could outperform ADP by: 22-24 spots
Cam Newton – QB (CAR)
Upside Grades
Redraft ADP: 2.04-2.10 | 2012 Overall Max Potential: Top 1 | 2012 Position Max Potential: 1-3
Cam Newton could very well finish as the No. 1 overall fantasy football player in 2012. Whenever you can say that about a player that you can grab in the second-round, you’re looking at a blueprint that wins fantasy championships. Newton is like having an extra running back — Even if you grab him in the top 5-10 range, you’re still looking at huge upside for the value… the thing is, though, you don’t have to grab him that high… make sure you don’t! For some crazy reason his ADP continues to drop… take full advantage! As of this moment, my new favorite fantasy football draft day strategy is landing Cam Newton as my second-drafted player. His falling ADP is truly head-scratching!
2012 Ceiling Projections
Pa Yds: 4,000 | Pa TDs: 22-24 | INTs: 9-12 | Ru Yds: 600-700 | Ru TDs: 10 | Could outperform ADP by: 20+ spots
Julio Jones – WR (ATL)
Upside Grades
Redraft ADP: 1.11-2.03 | 2012 Overall Max Potential: Top 3-6 | 2012 Position Max Potential: 1-3
Julio Jones is a top 1-3 fantasy receiver moving forward, and the cat is out of the bag. We screamed this from the rooftops all off-season long, and hopefully many of you DraftCalc users took full advantage of Jones’ previous third-round ADP. All this said, Jones still has top 5 overall upside, and top 1-3 upside for this year and the future. What does that make him? Well, that still means he has big upside an an ability to outperform his now-high 2012 fantasy football ADP.
2012 Ceiling Projections
Receptions: 80-90 | Rec Yds: 1,300 | TDs: 12-14 | Could outperform ADP by: 6-10 spots
Dez Bryant – WR (DAL)
Upside Grades
Redraft ADP: 4.01-4.06 | 2012 Overall Max Potential: Top 8-12 | 2012 Position Max Potential: 3-6
Dez Bryant is a steal anywhere in that 4th- to 5th-round range. Are there question marks when it comes to Bryant? Absolutely, especially given his recent arrest, but as your fourth- or fifth-drafted player, the risk is minimized and the potential is glaring. This could be the season Bryant goes from upside player to elite fantasy wide receiver. First off, he is entering his third NFL season, and it’s no secret that a receiver’s third NFL campaign is usually his breakout year… second, Bryant had 9 scores last year and pulled in 63 receptions for 928 yards; that’s not a bad season at all for a second-year player. People can say all day long that he has yet to put it all together, but again, he is entering his third NFL season! It usually takes receivers 1-2 years before they have that breakout season… Bryant is NOT behind in the developmental process! This kid has the talent, the physical ability, and the situation, to be one of the best fantasy receivers in the game for years and years to come… I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Bryant produced top 3-6WR numbers in 2012. Whether we’re talking redraft or dynasty, only Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Julio Jones have more fantasy football wide receiver value.
2012 Ceiling Projections
Receptions: 90 | Rec Yards: 1,100-1,200 | TDs: 10-14 | Could outperform ADP by: 22-26 spots
Tom Brady – QB (NE)
Upside Grades
Redraft ADP: 1.06-2.01 | 2012 Overall Max Potential: Top 1-3 | 2012 Position Max Potential: 1-3
Tom Brady just has too many weapons this year not to crack this list. Sure, his ADP is trending up, and fast, as he is now consistently getting snagged in the middle of the first-round in grips of current fantasy football mock drafts; however, he is in a position to finish as this upcoming fantasy football season’s top fantasy scorer — and by a lot! Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and now the emerging Stevan Ridley at running back… Brady has arguably the best tight end in football, and Welker has the capability of finishing anywhere in that 5-10 range for fantasy receivers in 2012… those two players alone make Brady top 5-10 overall worthy on draft day… Now toss in a tight end that is arguably as talented as Gronkowski (in Herndandez), and throw in a top 12-17 capable NFL wide receiver in Lloyd (who might play better than that in New England), and I just don’t see how Brady will finish as anything but the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in 2012 (if healthy)! I predict that Brady breaks both the NFL passing record and NFL touchdown record in 2012, as I have him pegged for 5,480 passing yards and 53TDs. Even with an upward-evolving average draft position (near 1.06), he could be the biggest steal in all 2012 fantasy football drafts. Yes, even a first-rounder can the absolute steal of any draft — Brady could score that much in 2012!
2012 Ceiling Projections
Pa Yds: 5,480 | Pa TDs: 53 | INTs: 6 | Ru Yds: 105 | Ru TDs: 1 | Could outperform ADP by: 8-12 spots
