On The Rise

It’s tough not being both excited and cautiously-optimistic about DeMarco Murray’s upcoming sophomore fantasy campaign. Murray had a fantastic rookie season last year, and he definitely showed signs of being RB1-type material; however, it’s never easy predicting what that Dallas’ coaching staff is going to do with their running backs. During Weeks 7-12, Murray rushed for 761 yards… he really didn’t get a chance to start last season until Week 7, which is the week that he received 25 carries; those 25 carries produced 253 yards and a TD. Murray then went on to rush for 74, 139, 135, 73 and 87 yards in Weeks 8-12… In Week 13, the runner only received 12 carries, and in Week 14 he got the rock just five times… then he sat out Weeks 15-17. As you can see, D-Murray didn’t play the beginning of the season and he didn’t finish the year out either, so both consistency and injury have to be concerns no matter how much you like the guy heading into 2012.

So, back to the point of this write-up: Is DeMarco Murray on the Rise? Well, it always boils down to Average Draft Positions! ADP is always the answer when evaluating a player for breakout potential. Are fantasy owners sleeping on Murray? Well, according to our very own compiled ADP Data, which is currently showing Murray in that 2.04-2.06 range… At a glance, that doesn’t seem low or high… it seems about right if you ask me… This means the risk isn’t all that high (if his ADP holds true), but the upside is a touch more limited than most were likely hoping for… He can be elite, no question, but at the cost of a 2.04-2.06 draft selection, Murray has to produce extremely-solid fantasy RB2-type numbers… Murray can play at that level, I have no doubt about it, but at 2.04-2.06, you’re talking about passing on players like Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Matthew Stafford and Hakeem Nicks… the point is, Murray is on the rise and almost too much, as it limits that “big-time” upside we’ve all been hoping for… I predict Murray rushes for about 1,100 yards and 8 or so TDs in 2012… he should also pull in roughly 40 receptions for 300 or so yards. That’s a great season, but the other names I just mentioned, from Gronkowski to Nicks, all seem like good bets to produce similar numbers in 2012 (and in some cases with less risk). Jump on our DC Forums and discuss this topic!